Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS64 KMEG 221620 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1020 AM CST Sat Jan 22 2022 .UPDATE... After a very cold start this morning, temperatures are steadily warming through the 20s. Winds will remain generally light today, gradually becoming more westerly this afternoon. With full insolation, temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper 30s and lower 40s this afternoon. Nil PoPs will continue this weekend. No notable changes were made to the going forecast. MJ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM CST Sat Jan 22 2022/ DISCUSSION... Currently...A slowly weakening arctic high pressure system is situated directly over the Mid-South this morning with light N/NNW winds, clear skies and temps in the teens and lower 20s. The upper level pattern continues to support below normal temperatures through the forecast period. A mean upper level trough anchored over the eastern US will bring shots of cold air into the Mid-South through at least the end of next week. Today and tonight...High pressure ridge axis will drop south across the region as surface winds gradually shift from the north to the SW/WSW. Temps will gradually moderate with highs in the upper 30s/lower 40s today and lows in the 20s tonight. Sunday and Sunday night...A mid level trough moving quickly into the mid MS Valley will push a weakening cold front into the Mid- South Sunday evening. WSW winds will help warm temps into the upper 40s/lower 50s ahead of this weak front. No sensible weather is expected with this front just a momentary wind shift Sunday night. Monday...Best day of the forecast period. Southerly winds quickly redevelop ahead of another approaching cold front. Highs will be in the lower to mid 50s. Monday night and Tuesday...Looking more and more like the northern stream will win out during this period with the southern system and its associated moisture being pushed well south of the area. The EPS is looking very dry though the GEFS still features members that throw moisture into the Mid-South. Decided the compromise was to trim the NBM toward the EPS while not taking pops out completely. Cold air will start spilling into the region on Tuesday on brisk north winds. Tuesday night through Friday...Arctic high pressure will prevail through Thursday with highs in the 30s/40s and lows in the teens/20s. Another reinforcing cold front will move through Thursday night with more cold weather to finish the week. SJM && .AVIATION... /12Z TAFs/ VFR and light winds to prevail through the period. CJC && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$