Forecast Discussion
688 FXUS64 KMEG 140558 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1158 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1157 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 - A low pressure system will bring widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms starting Saturday morning, lasting through Sunday afternoon. - Weekend rain totals will be in the 1.5 to 2 inch range. - A pattern change next week will bring dry and warm weather with highs in the mid 70s by Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1157 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 All is calm and mostly clear across the Mid-South this evening, but not for long. Cloud cover and rain chances will increase in tandem throughout the overnight period ahead of an approaching low pressure system. The warm front associated with the surface low will gradually lift north throughout the day Saturday, increasing the coverage and intensity of WAA showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Given the position of the surface low tracking right through the center of the forecast area, nearly all the instability with this system is displaced to the south along the Gulf Coast. However, MUCAPE on the order of 100 J/kg is certainly enough to encourage a few claps of thunder Saturday afternoon and Sunday. The heaviest period of rainfall looks to be between midnight and 6 AM Sunday morning. This coincides with a surge in PWATs around 1.3 inches, which is nearing the upper echelon of climatology for mid February. This is also when the surface low`s track is projected to pass right through the MS Delta, which will further contribute to the low level convergence and ample moisture return for heavy rainfall-producing storms. While QPF continues to trend downward for this weekend`s rainfall (now looking like 1.5 to 2 inches total, at best), it`s important to note the antecedent conditions. The slow snowmelt from the late January winter storm has contributed to a very soggy ground in many areas. Soils are already fairly saturated along and north of I-40 where the heaviest snow fell and stayed on the ground for weeks. While the rainfall totals alone are not necessarily sounding alarm bells for flash flooding, it`s important to keep in mind that a localized flooding threat could materialize due to other factors as well, especially along I-40. 00Z CAMs are in good agreement for a sharp cutoff in the precipitation on the back side of the system shortly after noon Sunday. This tight precipitation gradient after the passage of a strong surface low is, anecdotally, a precursor to a wake low. While these are extremely difficult to forecast in advance, the setup is favorable for a few hours of locally strong wind gusts upwards of 40-50 MPH just due to the 6-8 mb pressure gradient. These strong winds will most likely be felt most across the MS Delta and would be for a few hours Sunday afternoon. Moving into next week, things look warm and dry for the most part due to upper level ridging building in from the Four Corners. This ridging pattern will dominate at pretty much all levels, leading to well above normal temperatures and dry conditions through most of the work week. Near record warmth is forecast Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 70s. For fans of winter, the CPC extended temperature outlook will be disappointing. We maintain at least a 70% chance of above normal temperatures through the end of February. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at all sites overnight into Saturday afternoon. Light winds will increase to southeast winds Saturday morning, with sustained speeds 7-12 kts into Saturday night. High confidence (> 70% chance) for MVFR and IFR ceilings developing mainly Saturday night as an area of low pressure moves across the Lower Mississippi Valley. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1157 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 After several days of very dry conditions, wetting rains will move back in this weekend. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity throughout the day Saturday, reaching maximum intensity in the early Sunday morning hours. Rainfall totals will max out around 2 inches along I-40, but most areas will receive at least 1 inch. After the precip ends on Sunday afternoon, expect gusty winds for a few hours on the back side of the surface low. Warm and dry conditions return next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...CJC