Forecast Discussion
663 FXUS64 KMEG 222041 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 241 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1154 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 - Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Highs will range from the low to mid 70s. - A 20 to 40 percent chance for light showers and drizzle will continue through Tuesday night as a warm front lifts north. - Very mild conditions will persist through Saturday until a cold front moves through Sunday, bringing below normal temperatures back to the area. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1154 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 A 1034 mb surface high is situated over the Mid-Atlantic this morning. As the high shifts east to the Atlantic seaboard, return flow will develop across the Lower Mississippi Valley and lift a weak warm front north through the Mid-South. Low clouds are quickly pushing north and covering much of the Mid-South. The moisture advecting north from the Gulf will be quite shallow, so expect a 20 to 40 percent chance for light showers or drizzle through Tuesday night. QPF amounts will be quite light with just a few hundredths of an inch through Tuesday night. An anomalous 588 dm upper-level ridge will build over the southern U.S. toward the middle and latter part of the week. As the ridge strengthens, the sun will reappear, and this will lead to a very mild, breezy period across the Mid-South. Highs will climb into the lower and middle 70s by Christmas and remain there through Saturday. This will be close to record-breaking territory, especially if temps overperform like NBM75 and NBM90 guidance suggests. Lows will be very mild as well, with readings only in the 50s and lower 60s, which will be close to record high minimums. Undoubtedly, some records will fall by Saturday. Breezy southwest winds with gusts to 25 mph will prevail Wednesday through Saturday, mainly along and west of the Mississippi River. Latest guidance indicates a cold front will move through the region on Sunday as a deep upper low is forecast to drop into the Great Lakes. There are still questions about the strength of the front and the amount of cold air associated with it. That being said, the LREF is indicating a very high probability (70-90%) that temperatures will be below normal early next week. It does look like any cold snap will be short-lived though, with return flow setting back up by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Persistent southerly flow through the TAF period will result in abundant moisture transport and resulting low clouds. MVFR CIGS have moved into the majority of the region, with only KJBR still VFR (but that will change soon). CIGS will continue to deteriorate through the afternoon and overnight hours, with widespread IFR to LIFR conditions areawide. Drizzle will also occur and off through the period. There will be some improvement during the day on Tuesday, but a return to VFR is not anticipated. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1154 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 A 20% to 40% chance of light showers or drizzle will continue through Tuesday night as a warm front lifts north. Fire danger will remain very low all next week as humidity will remain elevated in the 50% to 80% range. Unseasonably warm conditions are expected each day as a strong upper level high pressure system builds over the region. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...KRD