Forecast Discussion
576 FXUS64 KMEG 280456 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1056 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1056 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 - Freezing fog will likely form late tonight, along a weak cold front. Areas along the Interstate 40 corridor will have the greatest chances of experiencing dense freezing fog. prior to sunrise. Freezing fog may create a light glaze of icing on elevated surfaces. In addition to black ice from refreezing ice melt, slippery travel conditions will make overnight travel hazardous. - Daytime temperatures will warm above freezing along and south of Interstate 40 today, and over most of the Midsouth on Thursday. - Bitter cold temperatures will return to the Midsouth following the passage of a strong Arctic cold front on Friday. Morning lows will plunge to the single digits this weekend. Sub-zero wind chills are expected Saturday morning over most of the Midsouth. High temperatures Saturday will only reach the upper teens to mid 20s on Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1056 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 The upper level pattern over the next ten days will continue to favor a longwave trough over the eastern US, downstream of ridging over the Great Basin and Rocky Mountains. For the Midsouth, this will mean continued below normal temperatures. In the case of this upcoming weekend, much below normal temperatures. For tonight, short range ensemble guidance continues to depict likely chances of dense freezing fog in the vicinity of a weak cold frontal passage. A dense veil of cirrostratus, associated with a weak shortwave, may limit coverage to the vicinity of the front. The high clouds should thin by sunrise as the shortwave lifts out. Areas along the I-40 corridor will have a 50 to 80 percent chance of experiencing visibility of a half mile or less toward sunrise. Northwest flow aloft will prevail today, with little in the way of upper level energy. On Thursday, a shortwave will pass from the Missouri Valley into the Ozarks. This will bring an increase in midlevel clouds over the Midsouth Thursday afternoon. Increased clouds notwithstanding, Thursday`s temperatures will likely be the mildest of the week, reaching into the 40s along and south of I-40 and exceeding freezing over all but perhaps the Missouri bootheel. Big changes are in store for Friday and the weekend. A deep upper level trough will drop south from western Ontario through the Upper Mississippi River Valley on Friday. This trough will further deepen into a closed low by the time it reaches the Tennessee River Valley on Saturday, registering 521dam at 500mb - a 40dam negative seasonal anomaly. The rapid deepening of this trough will be aided by intrusion of stratospheric vorticity. GFS depicts 1.5 PVU (potential vorticity units) extending to 600mb over the Midsouth Saturday morning, approximately the level of the tropopause on model soundings. Though PWAT will be a scant 0.25 inch or less, flurries or brief snow showers will be possible Friday through Saturday morning, mainly to the north and east of the Memphis metro. As would be expected, such a deep northern branch trough will be accompanied by a strong Arctic cold front. Initial frontal passage through the Midsouth will occur early Friday, with strong cold air advection through early Sunday. By Sunday night, the center of the 1036mb Arctic surface pressure ridge will drop the western Gulf coast, before lifting east on Monday. Return flow will develop on Monday, as a progressive upper level shortwave ridge transits the region. In short, temperatures will warm to within about 5 degrees of normal by Tuesday. Medium range models are in relatively good agreement concerning increasing rain chances toward the middle of next week, ahead of a Pacific cold frontal passage. PWB && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1056 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Guidance continues to develop FZFG along the I-40 corridor tonight, mainly impacting MEM and MKL. Visibility reductions to 1/2 mile are anticipated with gradual improvement after sunrise. Otherwise, expect VFR CIGs with light and variable winds. ANS && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1056 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Cold temperatures will continue through Wednesday, with areas of early morning fog possible. A strong Arctic cold front will return very dry and bitter cold air to the Midsouth this weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...ANS