Forecast Discussion
061 FXUS64 KMEG 301721 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1121 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1121 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 - Chilly mornings will persist through Thursday morning with temperatures in 20s and 30s. - Temperatures will warm nicely each afternoon. A warming trend will allow for highs in the 50s by Wednesday and into the 50s and 60s Thursday. - Shower chances increase Friday afternoon, with only a 15 to 30 percent chance of a thunderstorm. Dry conditions should prevail by Saturday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Monday) Issued at 1121 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Surface high pressure continues to edge east towards the Mid- South. Winds around 10 mph will keep the atmosphere well mixed once again and not allow ample heating with such a dry environment. High temperatures for Tuesday will reside in the mid 30s to low 40s with wind chills in the 20s and 30s. As high pressure settles, the pressure gradient will ease and windy and/or gusty conditions will finally subside Wednesday. As winds ease and zonal flow takes over, diurnal heating trends will carry this benign, high pressure forecast through late week. Mornings will start out chilly and afternoon temperatures will climb to near/slightly above normal. We will have to monitor cloud coverage and wind forecasts daily, but due to NBM dry biases, would not be surprised if afternoon highs/morning lows creep closer towards NBM90/NBM25 values respectively. Thursday, very weak return flow will start a WAA regime. Prior to the start of southerly moisture transport, dewpoints will reside in the upper 20s to mid 30s at the surface. Model soundings show a stout, unsaturated environment. It is going to take a lot stronger flow to saturate this column. The saturation will be the key to the showers and potential for thunderstorms on Friday. The Mississippi Delta has the highest probability of thunderstorms, which even the probabilities of occurrence are low (10%) due to proximity to moisture. Lack of moisture results in a lack of instability, which are two crucial factors of thunderstorm development. There are still large discrepancies amongst guidance, as models are struggling to resolve this dry air column. Nonetheless, a surface boundary will track across the area on Friday which increases rain chances, but QPF amounts and timing still remain uncertain. This front will cross and cooler, drier air will prevail Saturday and Sunday as another high pressure system leads the forecast into early next week. DNM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 VFR conditions will continue through Wednesday afternoon. Light northwest winds will back to the west/southwest behind a departing surface Arctic high pressure ridge. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1121 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Minimum RH values will be between 30 percent and 40 percent areawide through at least this afternoon. Minimum RH values may dip slightly below 30% across north Mississippi Wednesday afternoon as 5kt 20ft winds will persist; but elsewhere should hover between 35-45%. Weak, southerly flow returns Thursday and moisture will slowly advect back into the region. Confidence is high for dry conditions to persist through Thursday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...PWB