Forecast Discussion
714 FXUS64 KMEG 191903 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 103 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 102 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026 - There is a Marginal Risk (5% chance) of a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday night mainly across West Tennessee. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threat. - Bouts of scattered showers will continue Friday through early Saturday morning as a couple of cold fronts move through the region. - Below freezing temperatures will return Sunday and Monday, with a warmup towards midweek. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 102 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026 The latest surface analysis places a 994mb low over Kansas City, MO an attendant cold front extending southwest into eastern Oklahoma. Ahead of this system, the pressure gradient is quite tight across the Mid-South with an 8mb gradient analyzed from Clay County, AR to Monroe County, MS. Several wind gusts over 30 knots have been reported at regional airports across NE Arkansas and along the Mississippi River. A wind advisory remains in effect for portions of northeast AR and Missouri Bootheel for wind gusts up to 40 mph through 6PM. The latest GOES East Visible Satellite imagery reveals significant clearing west of the Mississippi River, which is allowing stronger winds to mix down to the surface. Temperatures are in the lower 70s with low to mid 60s dewpoints. The latest mesoanalysis places a moderately unstable air mass across NE Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and NW Tennessee characterized by 1800 J/kg of MUCAPE. The latest HRRR model soundings show a stout cap in place at 850mb, which will keep the fuel stored until the frontal passage this evening. The question still remains as to how much CAPE will be available and coverage of thunderstorms this evening. The HREF shows minimal convective coverage this evening, even with the frontal passage. Nonetheless, if any storms do get going and are not completely sheared apart by the very strong winds aloft, a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds, as mid and upper lapse rates are moderately steep around 7.5 C/km. The tornado threat appears to be very low, as the wind profile is mainly unidirectional and the surface low is removed well north of the region. We collaborated with SPC this morning on a Marginal Risk (5% probability) of severe thunderstorms for portions of west Tennessee along and NE of a line from Dyersburg to Jackson, TN. The timing of strong convection will be a small window from 6PM through about midnight tonight. The aforementioned front will sweep across the entire Mid-South by Friday morning ending rain chances and filtering in drier air. The front will stall down near the I-20 corridor and begin to lift back north as a warm front Friday night, in response to another shortwave ejecting out of the Southern Plains. Pockets of elevated instability will lift into north-central Mississippi. There is currently a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) over the majority of north MS on Friday, however, joint probabilities of MUCAPE >200 J/kg, Bulk Shear > 30 knots, and MUCIN < -25 J/kg are only in the 30 to 40 percent range suggesting that this outlook is likely too far north and is expected to be trimmed to the south. We will continue to collaborate with SPC over the next forecast cycle to trim the threat to the south. Nonetheless, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move north up to the I- 40 corridor late Friday night into Saturday morning. A reinforcing cold front will pass through the region Saturday afternoon and deliver a shot of cold and dry Canadian air to the region. Temperatures will trend below normal Sunday and Monday with lows falling well below freezing each morning. A warming trend will begin Tuesday and persist through midweek as the subtropical ridge builds north into the Middle Mississippi Valley. Another cold front is forecast to move into the region midweek as the polar jet dives back down over the central CONUS. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026 A relatively strong surface low and its attending cold front will sweep through the airspace this evening. Some lingering MVFR ceilings will impact all terminals for the next few hours, but the deck should lift to 4 kft or higher and scatter out by 21Z today. As the cold front approaches, the tightening pressure gradient will lead to gusty southwesterly winds up to 40 MPH at JBR and 30 MPH for MEM and MKL through the evening hours. CAMs depict the convective coverage to be a very thin line of showers and storms right along the front, which essentially limits our confidence in widespread or long duration impacts. As such, PROB30s remain the best call for all sites except JBR. Behind the front overnight, winds will gradually shift to northwesterly and decrease to 10 kts or less. Another round of light precip is on the horizon late tomorrow evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 102 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026 A couple of cold fronts will move through the region through Saturday. However, there is high confidence that wetting rain chances will remain largely isolated to scattered for the majority of the Mid-South. Dry and cold air will filter into the region Sunday and Monday with minimum humidity levels returning to the 30 percent range each day. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ009-018-026-028. MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ113-115. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...CAD