Forecast Discussion
406 FXUS64 KMEG 140452 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1052 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1050 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 - Showers are expected across the entire Mid-South on Wednesday, with rainfall totals up to 0.25". - Winds will become gusty by Wednesday afternoon, with wind gusts of at least 30 to 35 mph at times. - Much colder temperatures will return on Thursday, with high temperatures struggling to reach 40 degrees. Near to below normal temperatures are expected to continue into the weekend and early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1050 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 A mild overnight period is ongoing across the Mid-South with showers beginning to develop along a frontal boundary to our northwest. While some light echos are showing up on radar, we still have a pretty dry air mass in place, so any showers will likely struggle to reach the surface over the next couple of hours. As more moisture filters in overnight, we will begin to see additional showers develop as this line moves southward through the morning hours. These showers will ultimately move out by the afternoon, bringing up to 0.25" of rain. Highest totals will be across West TN, with locations elsewhere likely remaining closer to the 0.10" mark. Behind the cold front, winds will become gusty by Wednesday afternoon. NBM probabilities suggest that locations generally along and west of the MS River have a 60- 70% chance of wind gusts exceeding 35 mph, with some locations potentially approaching 40 mph. A Wind Advisory may be needed across portions of northeast AR and the MO Bootheel, where the probabilities are highest if this trend continues. A much drier and colder air mass will filter in behind Wednesday`s frontal boundary, with most locations seeing a 10- 15 degree high temperature drop between Wednesday and Thursday. Many locations will struggle to reach the 40s on Thursday, with most of the area likely remaining in the mid to upper 30s. The fast moving trough axis will continue to shift eastward on Friday, with zonal flow returning aloft. This will allow for a brief respite in our temperatures, with high temperatures returning to the upper 40s to 50s on Friday. Through the day on Friday, an upper-level low pressure system will move across the Great Lakes with a tightening pressure gradient to our north. While the strongest winds and bulk of any precipitation with this system should remain to our north, some gusty winds can`t be ruled out for locations north of I-40 on Friday. NBM probabilities have a 70-80% chance of wind gusts exceeding 30 mph. Moving into the weekend, a very dry and cold air mass will filter in as the upper-level trough deepens across the region. High temperatures will remain well below-normal, with highs in the 30s to 40s on Saturday and 30s on Sunday. In addition, overnight lows will be in the teens to 20s by Sunday morning, with wind chill values in the single digits to teens. While these values should remain just above advisory criteria, this will be something to watch in later forecast cycles. Looking to next week, CPC guidance continues to highlight below-normal temperatures across the area, so it looks like the colder weather is here to stay. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 Little change from the 00z cycle. Precipitation onset continues to be pushed back as moisture has yet to succumb to the dry air. By sunrise, most of the area will be socked in by a MVFR deck between 1500-2500ft with light rain showers. TUP probabilities have increased (> 50%) for an IFR ceiling tomorrow afternoon during FROPA, however, conditions elsewhere will be MVFR before returning to VFR by sunset with gusty northerly winds up 25kts behind the front. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1050 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 Showers will move across the Mid-South on Wednesday, bringing up to 0.25" of rainfall. Dry conditions will filter back in on Thursday, with minRH values falling below 40%. While values will be low, recent rain and light winds should alleviate any fire danger concerns. MinRH values will remain above 40% on Friday, before conditions dry out again this weekend. MinRH values will likely fall below 35%, possibly even 30%, on both Saturday and Sunday with 20ft winds exceeding 10 mph on Saturday. If this trend continues, elevated fire danger concerns could occur on Saturday afternoon and will need to be monitored in future forecast periods. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...DNM