Forecast Discussion
076 FXUS64 KMEG 160431 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1031 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1027 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 - Following overnight lows in the 20s, temperatures will warm to the upper 40s and lower 50s Tuesday afternoon. - Increasing clouds will bring scattered showers Wednesday, in advance of a Pacific cold front on Thursday. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected as this front moves through. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. - Cool and dry conditions will prevail Friday, following an extended period of mild temperatures that will persist over the weekend, through at least the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1027 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Moderating temperatures remain the primary story through Thursday, following our recent 2-3 day Arctic cold snap. Southerly low level return flow will prevail through Wednesday, under zonal flow aloft. Low stratus clouds that lifted from TX into the Ozarks late Monday were evidence of moisture embedded in this southerly flow. This low level moisture axis will lift into the lower MS River Valley on Wednesday, ahead of low amplitude midlevel trough moving through the OH and Lower MS River valleys. There should be sufficient moisture for a few showers Tuesday night and early Wednesday, as this upper trough passes. More substantial height falls will occur Thursday, associated with a deep closed upper low lifting through the Midwest. These height falls will accompany sufficient low level instability to support isolated thunderstorms over the Midsouth Thursday afternoon. Severe storms are not expected, with LREF joint probabilities less than 10 percent for 200 J/kg CAPE and 30 knots of deep layer bulk sheer. Arctic surface high pressure will follow the upper low through the Midwest, but the southern extent of the cold front appears to at least be partially backed by a Pacific high pressure moving out of the Rockies. This airmass will nonetheless bring our daytime highs on Friday down by about 15 degrees from Thursday. Morning lows Friday and Saturday will be in the 20s and 30s, respectively. The dry air will warm efficiently under full sun- especially when accompanied by southerly return flow on Saturday. Dewpoints will warm to the 50s by Sunday, and continue through most of next week. With persistent southerly surface flow and low amplitude ridging aloft, mild temperatures and relatively narrow diurnal temperature ranges (for December) appear in store for much of next week. PWB && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1027 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 VFR conditions prevail as high pressure continues to dominate. Light south winds and mostly clear skies continue throughout the day Tuesday before a cirrus shield moves in after 00Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1027 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Minimum relative humidity values will drop into the 30 percent range over most of northern Mississippi and West Tennessee today. Thereafter, moderate humidity over Arkansas will spread through all of the Midsouth on Wednesday. A few light showers will occur Wednesday, followed by better chances of wetting rainfall on Thursday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...CAD