Forecast Discussion

316
FXUS64 KMEG 191152 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
552 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 552 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Near record warm temperatures are expected through this
  afternoon, with temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

- Unsettled weather returns this morning as showers and
  thunderstorms return to the forecast through Saturday.

- Much colder air is anticipated Sunday and Monday, with
  temperatures dropping back toward or slightly below normal into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

The latest surface analysis depicts a 992mb surface low over
central Minnesota. This parent low is stretching a weak cold
front just to the northwest of the Mid-South. The combination of
dry air aloft and a developing surface low near the ArkLaTex,
will have this front wash out before it can cross the region. The
front, however, has had enough moisture pull for some sprinkles
and drizzle along and south of I-40.

Another system will eject out of the Rockies late tonight and
stage a cold frontal passage for Thursday evening. Ahead of this,
the pressure gradient will tighten once more and gusty conditions
are in store in the front`s wake. A Wind Advisory will go into
effect at 9 AM for areas in closest proximity to the system,
which includes northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. A
leading shortwave ahead of the main frontal boundary will
interact with the washed out frontal boundary and initiate shower
development by late Thursday morning. The upper levels still
appear to be very dry, so QPF values are rather lack-luster along
the KY/TN/MO borders. As the front taps into better surface
moisture further south, shower and thunderstorm coverage will
enhance over northeast Mississippi. By Friday evening, a stout
shortwave will skirt across the Mid-South. The current track
appears to follow along and south of the I-40 corridor, but will
move quickly across the region. Probabilities of receiving a
quarter of an inch or more by Saturday afternoon are generally
between 20-40% across northeast Mississippi, with higher
probabilities (near 60%) in Monroe County. No severe weather is
expected with any of this activity as limited upper level
moisture is available to support upscale growth.

The front that crosses the region Thursday night into Friday will
attempt to return north as a warm front on Saturday while a
northern stream shortwave takes aim across the Upper Mississippi
Valley. Saturday will be rather unsettled with increased rain
chances once again. The quick moving nature of these systems with
near climatology PW values, will have QPF values on the lower end
again. As rain moves out by Sunday evening, there is a 20-40%
chance of receiving a half an inch across northeast Mississippi.

By Sunday, a strong area of Canadian high pressure will encompass
most of the central CONUS. By Monday and Tuesday, this will
intensify and center over the Mid-South to drop temperatures
below normal. Monday morning has high probabilities across much
of the area to dip below 32F, but Tuesday morning has high
probabilities for almost the entire Mid-South to drop below 28F.
There is a bit of model discrepancy after Tuesday of how
long/quickly ridging can build in and when the next system will
cross the area.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

An area of sub-2000 ft CIGs over AR will progress east this
morning, lifting to high MVFR as the mixed layer deepens over the
Midsouth through 18Z.

The low level pressure gradient will remain sufficiently tight to
support surface gusts in the evening, prior to a cold frontal
passage. Forcing along the front will be relatively weak, but
enough to support scattered to isolated -SHRA at MEM and MKL.
Drier post-frontal air will bring high chances of VFR for the
late evening MEM inbound push.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Wetting rain chances increase for southern portions of the Mid-
South beginning Thursday. Dry conditions in northern portions of
the region with elevated 20 ft winds will result in a limited
fire danger for the aforementioned area. A cooler and wetter
pattern will emerge after Thursday, leading to generally reduced
fire weather risk as humidity rises and fuel moisture improves.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for ARZ009-018-026-028.

MO...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB