Forecast Discussion
619 FXUS64 KMEG 030029 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 729 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 729 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026 - A low chance for severe weather exists this evening. The strongest storms will be capable of localized gusty winds. - There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly across north Mississippi. Damaging wind is the primary hazard. - Abnormally warm temperatures (around 15 degrees above normal) will continue through Friday, with higher rain chances arriving Friday into Saturday with a cold front. Temperatures will edge slightly below normal for early next week, behind this front. && .UPDATE... Issued at 729 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026 Wind speeds have diminished this evening across the Mid-South, allowing the Wind Advisory and Blowing Dust Advisories to be dropped a bit ahead of schedule. Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms continue across the western two-thirds of the CWA, with a few storms exhibiting transient supercellular characteristics. Damaging wind remains a minor concern with the strongest cells, but widespread severe weather is not anticipated. The 5% damaging wind probability is likely the ceiling for this evening. CAMs indicate scattered convection will persist through much of the overnight period, especially along/north of I-40. 20-30% PoPs were expanded in area overnight, with some higher pockets in the northern zones. MJ && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026 Windy conditions can be found across the Mid-South at this hour as the pressure gradient remains tight ahead of an approaching cold front. Areas along and west of the Mississippi River, which are in closest proximity to the front and its parent low pressure system, are under a Wind Advisory until 8 PM. Sustained southerly winds between 20-30 mph and gusts between 35-45 mph are likely to occur. Elsewhere across the region, windy conditions around 20 mph sustained and gusts up to 35 mph are expected. Aside from strong gradient winds, there is a low confidence chance of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon into evening. Model composite reflectivity`s have not been overly excited amongst the development later on with isolated coverage overall. The driving force of the Slight and Marginal Risks for severe thunderstorms appears to be steep low level lapse rates around 8C/km. Modest effective bulk shear between 30-40kts appears probable, with values closer to 40 kts in extreme northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Soundings, however, are not favoring a backing wind profile, displaying high LCLs, and mid level lapse rates around 5-6C/km. The aforementioned front is likely to slow down, potentially stall once more, as it enters western Arkansas. As the convection gets away from the front, a few discrete cells will reach the Mid-South this afternoon. These discrete cells` primary threat is damaging winds as they are likely to be surface based. The discrete cells may evolve and become supercellular in nature which also threatens large hail and a tornado. Given the generally un-impressive environmental factors, confidence remains low in the severe weather setup tonight. Climatologically, however, April is the peak severe weather season across the Mid-South and has historically been able to prove the models wrong. This will definitely be something to keep an eye on once, if at all, storms begin to initiate. Friday morning will be mostly dry and warm with highs in the 80s. Throughout the day, shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the rise as the cold front begins to dive southeasterly. There is a low (less than 30%) chance of light showers and thunderstorms developing as early as Friday afternoon, but after sunset on Friday into the overnight period is the most likely timing for beneficial rainfall to begin. While we will have better forcing providing lift supportive of upscale growth, the timing of the frontal crossing will not have the aid of daytime heating providing additional instability. Uncommon for April, CAPE parameters are less than 1000 J/kg. Perhaps up to 750 J/kg could develop across northeast Mississippi, but less energy (around 500 J/kg or less) can be found elsewhere. There is only a low (less than 30%) of joint probabilities of MUCAPE >500 J/kg and >30 kts of bulk shear on Friday night into Saturday. Once the front clears the area by Sunday morning, cooler and drier air will filter in with highs generally in the 60s. Seasonal trends will return with cool mornings with lows in the upper 30s and 40s and warming into the 60s for the afternoons. Benign weather is likely to persist through the workweek under surface high pressure and weak northwest flow aloft. The GFS and Canadian models are hinting at a weak surge of moisture for Tuesday morning near the Bootheel that could introduce some low PoPs, but given the very dry column of air that the ECMWF seems to be catching onto, those two results seem unlikely. If the solution of the ECMWF holds true, early Sunday will be our last chance of rainfall through the forecast period as the aforementioned cold front moves away from the region. Total rainfall with the front is generally 1.00-1.50" of rain with locally higher amounts up to 2.00" from today through Sunday. While this will provide brief aid in drought conditions across the area, the lack of beneficial rainfall is not looking good for drought across the region. DNM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 729 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026 Winds will remain elevated tonight at MEM, MKL, and JBR. LLWS is expected to develop later this evening as 2 kft winds increase up to around 40 kts, producing compression issues at MEM. The mention of PROB30s for -SHRA tonight is being maintained as CAMs still indicate scattered development occurring into early Friday morning. Latest guidance shows medium to high confidence for MVFR ceilings developing at all sites towards sunrise Friday with the exception of TUP. VFR conditions are expected to return by Friday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026 While windy conditions are expected today, RH values remain well into the 60-70% range through Sunday morning. A cold front will impede on the region Friday night bringing shower and thunderstorm chances areawide through early Sunday morning. Cooler and much drier air will begin to filter in Sunday with RH values dipping between 35-45% by Sunday afternoon. As the dry air continues to sink to the surface, there is a low to medium chance on Monday and Tuesday for values to drop below 30%. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ UPDATE...MJ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...CJC