Forecast Discussion
519 FXUS64 KMEG 051721 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1221 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 - Generally benign weather is expected today through the end of the week. - Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal early in the week, gradually warming through the work week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 A mostly clear day is underway across the Mid-South this afternoon in the wake of a cold front. Surface high pressure is settling in nicely, leading to sunny skies and breezy north winds. Residual CAA will keep temperatures near normal for the next couple days in the low 70s. Tomorrow (Monday) morning looks like the coldest of the period with overnight lows around 40 degrees. Will note that the frost potential continues to decrease for areas near the Tennessee River Monday morning; models have been coming in slightly warmer each run. The chance of temperatures dropping below 37 degrees (a good proxy for the first inkling of frost potential) is very low at less than 10%. Each subsequent day next week gets warmer with the return of southerly flow on the back side of the exiting surface high. Generally benign weather conditions are expected for the vast majority of the week. Moving into the weekend, the upper level pattern begins to transition to broad troughing over the central CONUS, resulting in southwesterly flow aloft for the Mid-South. This large-scale lift will be enough to support the return of PoPs above 15% on Saturday and Sunday as another cold front makes its way through the area. Neither of these two days have much of anything in the way of organizational shear or instability. Per the LREF, we`ll most likely top out around 200 J/kg of CAPE and about 25 kts of bulk shear Saturday and Sunday. This will support a few thunderstorms, but the parameter space supportive of severe weather is displaced pretty far off to the west over the southern Plains. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 Confidence is high for VFR conditions prevailing through the period at all sites as high pressure settles over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Gusty north winds will become light tonight and increase to NNE winds between 6-11 kts on Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 A dry air mass will move into the area and send MinRHs around 30% this afternoon. Elevated fire weather concerns may materialize through Tuesday as temperatures warm. If there were a day for MinRHs to drop to 25% or lower, it would be Monday; dewpoints are notoriously overforecasted a few days after a high pressure system settles in. Some areas received beneficial rainfall on Saturday, which may mitigate fire weather concerns until moisture begins to return by late week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...CJC