Forecast Discussion

607
FXUS64 KMEG 031742
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1142 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1141 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

- Light and steady rainfall will continue through late Tuesday
  night across the Mid-South. Rainfall will aid in wintry
  precipitation melting.

- Dry conditions and below normal temperatures will return for
  Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures dipping back down below
  freezing each morning.

- Dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures are
  expected Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Monday)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Surface analysis as of 10 AM shows a warm front near the MO
Bootheel. Mesoanalysis across West TN does show an increase in
mid-level instability as lapse rates are near 6.5C/km. Due to
this increase in elevated instability, a thunderstorm or two
cannot be ruled out this afternoon as showers cross the area.
This more convective regime may increase rain totals across West
TN as rain rates will increase in any thunderstorms.

This showery activity will slowly be pushed east as a cold front
is currently near the AR/OK borders. The cold front will clear
the Mid-South by midnight tonight and cease rain activity.
Lingering cloud coverage does look to stick around for most of
the night into Wednesday morning, which would increase the
likelihood of temperatures remaining near or above  freezing
overnight. Rainfall today will aid in the melting of
snow/sleet/ice, but this activity will not be enough to get rid
of it completely. The cold front will bring colder air, but not
as bitterly cold or prolonged as previous weeks. High
temperatures on Wednesday will reside on the chillier side with
temperatures near or above freezing along the KY/TN and AR/MO
borders to the mid 40s across north MS.Thursday morning will be
the coldest of the forecast package as subsidence of the cold air
mass centers right over the region. Temperatures Thursday morning
will be in the teens and 20s.

Thankfully, the cold will be short lived as a weak warm front
traverses north across the region on Friday. Probabilities of
high temperatures exceeding 60 degrees on Friday are greater than
35% from Tupelo, to Memphis, to Jonesboro and south of this line.
The parent low of the aforementioned Friday warm front will
quickly send a weak cold front through on Saturday. Though
cooler, temperatures on Saturday will still be pleasant with
highs in the upper 40s and 50s. Sunday will rebound from Saturday
and potentially be warmer than Friday as probabilities of
exceeding 60 degrees are greater than 40% for almost the entire
region, with the exception of extreme NW TN and the MO Bootheel.
It does look like this warmer pattern will be here to stay
through at least mid February as the CPC outlooks the entire Mid-
South with a 70-80% chance of above normal temperatures through
Feb 16.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Looks like guidance from this morning came in a little too
bullish on visibilities and  coverage/intensity of precip
associated with this frontal passage. Did some minor scaling back
of reductions in visibility and adjusted precip timing/intensity
to better match recent observations for the 18Z cycle. However,
ceilings have been very well forecasted thus far. Current
thinking is the IFR cigs will overspread the airspace until mid
afternoon, further dropping to LIFR during the evening. Still
thinking the low stratus will likely stick around longer than
models suggest given the historical precedent with this type of
cool season system, but it may be a scenario where ceilings
improve for a few hours overnight and then tank again early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1141 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Rain showers will continue through tonight with wetting rain
conditions expected areawide. Subfreezing temperatures will
return Wednesday and Thursday with a warming trend through the
weekend.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CAD