Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KMEG 250522

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1122 PM CST Wed Feb 24 2021


Updated for the 06Z Aviation Discussion


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 933 PM CST Wed Feb 24 2021/


A cold front is moving through the region this evening. A few
showers are developing across portions of E AR and this activity
will slide gradually E-SE through the night. Many places will not
see any precip from this front and whatever falls will be light.
Winds will become northerly overnight as cooler air advects in.
Given the warm temps and mixing that will result from increasing
winds later tonight think temps will not fall quite as far as
previously thought and bumped up lows a bit. Otrw forecast looks
good. Update already out.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CST Wed Feb 24 2021/

A weak cold front will cross the area late tonight into Thursday
morning. The air mass out ahead of the aforementioned front is
relatively dry. So initially any showers that do pop up might have
trouble making it to the ground. Any showers that do make it to
the ground will be light. Temperatures will slowly cool off and
overnight lows will be in the upper 30s in NE AR to the low 50s in
NE MS. The front sinks southeast of here Thursday morning leaving
the rest of Thursday dry.

In the meantime a trough is digging in over the Desert Southwest and
will move over the area on Friday bringing rain and possible
thunderstorms. The cold front that moved through the area is
expected to stall along the Gulf Coast. It then starts to lift back
into the area as a warm front. This warm front and where it sets up
will be the focus for multiple rounds of heavy rain through Tuesday.
Currently, the front looks to set up along the I-40 corridor. This
could change and will be watched closely. PWAT values are in the
97th percentile over this timeframe which points to heavy rain with
totals being in the 3-5in range for most of the Mid-South.

Wednesday and beyond the models diverge significantly with the next
system. Euro brings another shortwave over the area while GFS
carries it well north and absorbs it into the nearly zonal flow.
This could keep rain chances in the area through at least Thursday.
Will have more updates as we get closer to that time and models have
a better handle on this next disturbance.



06Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions are expected to continue for the entire forecast
period. Light rain showers are possible across much of the region
overnight but they are not expected to reach TAF sites. Rain will
return to the Mid-South Thursday evening. Winds will be mainly
from the northeast increasing to 10 to 15 knots overnight.