Forecast Discussion
071 FXUS64 KMEG 211114 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 514 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024 Dry and cool conditions will continue today and tomorrow, with high temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s today and spanning the 40s to low 50s tomorrow. General warming trend will begin on Monday, with precipitation chances returning Tuesday through the remainder of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Friday) Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024 Another calm, but much colder, morning across the Mid-South with temperatures currently spanning the upper 20s to mid 30s. Do expect for temperatures to fall a few more degrees over the next couple of hours under a clear sky, with much of the area likely falling into the mid to upper 20s by sunrise. Similar conditions as yesterday are on tap for the remainder of today, although conditions are not expected to be as windy. The eastern half of the area will likely see some cloud coverage through midday, with skies clearing into the afternoon and evening. High temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal, generally in the upper 30s to the north and mid 40s to the south. Clear skies will likely remain into the overnight hours along with light winds. These conditions coupled with low dew point depressions could spell some patchy fog near to after midnight, especially in low lying areas. Temperatures will likely be below freezing through this time period as well, so some could experience periods of freezing fog. Any fog develops overnight will quickly mix out following sunrise Sunday. Surface high pressure will slowly drift eastward on Sunday, allowing the beginning of our warming trend into next week. High temperatures Sunday will likely remain below-normal, but be in the mid 40s to near 50. By Monday, expect for an even warmer pattern with highs back into the 50s. Moving into the Christmas holiday timeframe, guidance continues to suggest above-normal temperatures with a wet and dreary pattern through the middle to back half of next week. Guidance has come to a closer consensus on the evolution of an upper-level trough moving eastward on Tuesday, with the general consensus favoring a dry solution across the Mid-South. However, with an influx of moisture arriving Tuesday, can`t rule out a stray shower through the day, but the bulk of any precipitation will likely hold off until late Christmas Eve into the Christmas holiday. While it does not look like the entire holiday will be a washout, if there are any outdoor plans for the day it may be a good idea to have a backup plan in the works. Following the holiday, all eyes will turn to another fast moving system out of the southern Rockies and its eventual progression eastward. Models continue to struggle with this particular system, which has led to fairly low confidence in any specifics forecast wise for Thursday and beyond. For those curious about our high temperatures, they will generally remain in the 50s to low 60s through much of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024 Generally non-impactful weather across the region to begin the TAF period. An MVFR stratus deck is currently across the eastern portions of the region that has intermittently caused drops to MVFR at MKL/TUP. These drops are expected to periodically continue through 18z. Some of these CIGs have a small window to make it east to JBR/MEM, but confidence in this scenario is still low. Kept TEMPO to account for this chance. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast is VFR with light ENE winds. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...JAB