Forecast Discussion
278 FXUS64 KMEG 070455 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1055 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1055 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025 - There is a low chance (less than 15 percent) of severe weather both Friday and Saturday afternoons. Damaging winds and hail are the main threats for both days. - A pattern change will bring the first hard freeze of the season early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1055 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025 A quiet and unseasonably warm night is underway. A warm front has now stalled out parallel to Jackson, TN. This will result in a warmer night and increasing cloud cover ahead of the aforementioned warm frontal boundary`s parent low pressure system. A cold front will take aim at the Mid-South Friday afternoon. This first of several cold fronts appears weak in nature and does not look to materialize until it nears the Tennessee River, hence the Slight Risk being removed from our area. This first frontal boundary may primarily bring gusty winds, leaving our immediate area largely dry while impacting middle TN. A few showers and storms could develop before crossing into Middle TN, but this solution is not currently favored amongst the CAMs. The first cold front is favored to stall along I-40, and a secondary cold front on the way will cause the initial cold front to become re-mobilized and initiate showers and a few storms into early Saturday morning. However, by Saturday night, as a mid- level trough digs into the southern Plains, and a deepening cyclone develops in the Lower Ohio Valley, forcing along the secondary cold front could initiate a secondary round of storms. Current thinking is after the first frontal passage, the air mass will be unfavorable for severity, but a strong to severe storm Saturday evening cannot be ruled out. Both of the severe weather threats for Friday and Saturday are very low confidence due to frontal strength, timing, initiation, and model discrepancy. Nonetheless, if a storm is able to get its act together, it will threaten damaging winds given the linear storm mode and availability of wind shear. Large hail, especially with cold temperatures aloft, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. A third frontal boundary will make its way to the Mid-South with polar air behind it. Strong CAA will bring our first hard freeze of the season on Monday and Tuesday mornings. Probabilities of temperatures below 28 degrees on Monday are medium to high (40- 80%) across West Tennessee and lesser elsewhere. Tuesday the probabilities are more widespread and higher with high probabilities >70% across almost everywhere east of the Mississippi River. This cold snap will be brief and temperatures will rebound by Wednesday as highs climb back into the 60s. DNM && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025 Late evening GOES IR imagery showed warm advection clouds between FL030-040 streaming north across the Arklamiss. This will continue into the Mid-South overnight with a tendency for cloud bases to lower into the high MVFR range toward sunrise. Models indicate sufficient lift for scattered -SHRA by mid/late morning. TS chances appear to remain low on Friday, mainly near and east of MKL. PWB && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1055 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025 RH values will remain above 40% each day with light southerly winds. Unsettled weather will kick off Friday through Saturday with wetting rain conditions expected. Sub-freezing temperatures arrive early next week resulting in no significant fire weather concerns. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...PWB