Forecast Discussion

412
FXUS64 KMEG 201158 CCA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
558 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 548 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

- Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through 10 AM Thursday.

- Wet and unsettled weather returns on Thursday and will persist
  through the end of the work week.

- The upcoming weekend will be mostly dry with highs in the 60s
  and 70s.

- Another unsettled pattern emerges next week with showers and
  thunderstorms possible Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1015 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

A stalled front is located from Clarksdale, MS to Savannah, TN.
Light winds, low dewpoint depressions and some recent rain invof
the stalled boundary is setting the stage for dense fog. Several
sites have already dropped below one half mile. The latest HRRR
indicates additional dense fog development across NE MS and
eastern AR later tonight. Decided to go ahead with an area wide
Dense Fog Advisory through 10 AM Thursday.

An upper trough will begin lifting out of the SW US/northern Mexico
on Thursday. Increasingly moist SW flow aloft will impinge on the
stalled frontal boundary resulting in numerous showers and
embedded thunderstorms across much of the Mid-South, especially
along and north of the TN/MS line, Thursday into Thursday night.
South of the front, across north MS, coverage will be less and
temps will again approach 80 degrees on Thursday. By Friday, a
weak cold front will approach the area with rain chances spreading
over the entire Mid- South. Severe chances look very low with
poor instability and fading upper level support as the upper
trough rapidly weakens as it spread northeast. The weak cold front
will move through Friday night with the heavier precip
dissipating or pushing east.

Saturday will start out damp as the area remains under cyclonic
surface flow. Low clouds and some drizzle will likely prevail at
least in the morning with some improvement in the afternoon as
weak high pressure moves in. Saturday night looks foggy from this
far out. Upper ridging ahead of the next system and weak surface
high pressure should produce a nice day on Sunday with temps in
the 60s and 70s.

The next system will eject from the SW US/northern Mexico early
next week with rain chances Monday into Tuesday. This system
looks a little more potent though the details are still
unfolding. Enough moisture and instability may advect into at
least southern parts of the Mid-South to result in a low severe
weather chance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Impactful TAF period ahead with widespread IFR/MVFR
conditions expected through the majority of the TAF period.

A warm front is currently lifting north across the region.
Underneath it, calm and very humid air has allowed for the
development of widespread fog. Prevailing and intermittent fog is
expected through at least 14z at TUP/MEM with additional drops
possible at JBR/MKL during this time frame.

Some thunderstorms are also developing along the warm front, which
are traveling northeast. Confidence in the coverage of TS is still
low, but a cluster of storms moving towards MEM has exhibited
lightning for long enough to include a TEMPO this morning for the
possibility of -TSRA. For the other sites, have opted to not
mention TS with this issuance given the aforementioned low
confidence in coverage.

Visibility restrictions and CIGs should gradually rise to MVFR by
late morning, extending into the afternoon. Rain showers will
remain through the afternoon and evening, eventually reaching a
lull overnight at MEM/TUP/MKL. CIGs are expected to drop again
tonight with more widespread IFR, potentially dropping into LIFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1015 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Wetting rain chances return on Thursday and will persist through
the end of the week. MinRH values will remain above 50% for the
foreseeable future with additional rain chances returning next
week. Fire weather concerns remain low.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...JAB