Forecast Discussion

713
FXUS64 KMEG 130514
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1114 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1114 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025


- A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of
  WestTennessee Sunday morning for wind chills dropping below 5
  degrees.

- Arctic air will bring the coldest temperatures of the seasonfrom
  Saturday night through Monday morning, with wind chills dropping
  into the teens and single digits Sunday and Monday mornings.

- Temperatures will warm quickly to near-normal by Tuesday.
  Rainchances increase by the middle of next week as the pattern
  continues to warm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1114 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

One more mild day is in store for the Mid-South on Saturday
before an Arctic plunge. The CP airmass currently making its
approach has frigid origins that can be traced back to the Yukon
Territory. The (mostly) dry cold front will make its way down the
CONUS throughout the day Saturday and be closely followed by the
1040 mb Arctic surface high. The tightness of this pressure
gradient and resultant CAA scheme will add a brutally cold wind
chill factor given the brisk north winds. Current forecast
temperatures Sunday morning are in the upper teens, but with
northerly winds gusting up to 30 MPH, wind chills will plummet to
the single digits and maybe even negatives. As such, a Cold
Weather Advisory has been issued for much of West Tennessee for
Sunday morning. This is the kind of cold that comes with a danger
of frostbite within 30 minutes if left unprotected.

Although temperatures are technically colder by 5-10F Monday
morning, the surface high will be right over us and thus there is
no wind chill factor so it will feel warmer. The apparent
temperature (wind chill) and actual temperature will be pretty
much identical and will most likely not warrant another Cold
Weather Advisory for Monday. Regardless, this is still a brutally
cold morning with forecast lows in the teens areawide. Cold and
dry conditions will continue to prevail into Tuesday morning,
though each subsequent morning warms just a few degrees.

The upper level pattern remains progressive with another longwave
trough and associated cold front moving through on Thursday of
next week. Another tight pressure gradient will materialize with
this next front, but this time on the southerly wind side. The
timing of the frontal passage looks to be during the late
afternoon/evening after a whole day of strong WAA, which will
send temperatures soaring to 10+ degrees above normal in the mid
60s. PoPs are in the 50-60% range Thursday evening due to modest
PWATs around 1 inch, which is nearing the 90th percentile of
climatology for mid December. Looking into the extended period,
zonal flow aloft will promote benign weather starting next
weekend. The pattern will shift to mild and mostly dry without
any deep systems on the horizon past Thursday; CPC`s 6-10 day
outlook depicts a high chance (80-90%) of above normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

There is reduced confidence that MVFR CIGs will affect JBR and
MEM toward 12Z, as the cloud deck over MO has moved little this
evening. Further east, an IFR deck was advancing slowly south and
would most likely affect MKL toward sunrise. A TEMPO for MVFR
CIGs at MEM was introduced in the 03Z AMD and will likely be
retained in for the 06Z TAF.

An Arctic front remains on track for passage through the Midsouth
Saturday evening, with strong north winds remaining the primary
impact.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1114 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

An arctic cold front will traverse the area Saturday evening
bringing very dry and cold air. Minimum RH values beginning
Sunday will hover around 25% with bitter cold temperatures.
Humidity continues to stay between 25-30% on Monday as the dry
airmass remains firmly in place. Temperatures and humidity will
be on the rise by midweek as another cold front brings a 50-60%
chance of wetting rains.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 9 AM CST
     Sunday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>052-054-055.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...PWB