Forecast Discussion
167 FXUS64 KMEG 141830 CCA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...Correct National Weather Service Memphis TN 1232 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1232 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Scattered thunderstorms continue each day, mainly in the afternoon hours to early evening hours. Some storms could produce heavy rainfall and strong winds. - Hot and humid conditions will remain across the Mid-South, with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices will likely exceed 105 degrees for some by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 A weak trough over the Ohio Valley will continue to deamplify this afternoon as it shifts east, exerting less influence on the Midsouth. A look at midday satellite imagery as compared to yesterday suggests that influence may already be minimal as a robust cu-field has not yet developed. Nevertheless, clearer skies will likely lead to warmer temperatures resulting in a more typical diurnal pattern for convection. Additionally, a couple of midlevel weaknesses in the upstream ridge over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas should approach the Midsouth later this afternoon/evening. The resulting slight height falls from northeast Arkansas, east across the Bootheel into northwest Tennessee will help to destabilize the atmosphere. Will maintain the 50-60 percent PoPs across northwest Tennessee. After sunset, we should see a quicker decrease in both coverage and intensity of storms as compared to yesterday. Afternoon high temperatures should reach the upper 80s to low 90s before convective initiation. Persistence is often the best forecast tool this time of year. Atmospheric moisture values will remain elevated (at or above 2 inches) through the work week with high temperatures in the low to middle 90s, so afternoon thunderstorms should develop each day. A 25-35% coverage each day would be a good bet. Guidance continues to suggest a warming trend during the work week, but that seems to be a pattern that models have been forecasting for the past 7-10 days and it really has not panned out. Nevertheless, confidence is increasing that by Wednesday and Thursday we will see heat indices above 105 degrees across portions of the Midsouth. NBM probability of temperatures above 95 degrees approaches about 50% Wednesday in portions of north Mississippi and southwest Tennessee. By Thursday, much of the same area is between 50% and 60%. Thursday looks to be our warmest day of the 7 day forecast period. We will likely continue to evaluate the need for any heat headlines on a day by day basis. The National Hurricane Center now has a 30% chance of tropical development in the northern Gulf during the middle to later part of the work week. Although no direct impact from a tropical system is expected in the Midsouth, some tropical moisture could eventually make it into our area next weekend. Either way, slightly cooler temperatures are expected to return to the region Saturday and Sunday. 30/Sirmon && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 VFR TAFs with the a 30% - 50% chance of afternoon thunderstorms this afternoon and tomorrow. Widespread cumulus has yet to mature into showers and thunderstorms as of 17z today, which is significantly later than yesterday. As such, have moved any mention of TS a few hours further into the TAF period, but storms are still expected to develop this afternoon. After 02z - 03z, storms should wane in coverage with VFR through tomorrow morning. Expect more storms to develop tomorrow afternoon with similar impacts to today. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Prevailing hot and humid conditions through the foreseeable future, with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day. As such, no fire weather concerns are in the forecast. Temperature will trend warmer through Thursday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...JAB