Forecast Discussion
326 FXUS64 KMEG 302351 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 651 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 650 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - There is a low chance (less than 30 percent) of strong to severe thunderstorms along and north of the I-40 corridor this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Damaging winds are the main threat. - There is another low chance of strong to severe thunderstorms over northeast Mississippi tomorrow afternoon as the cold front slowly advances southeast. - The Mid-South will see a couple days of heat relief Wednesday and Thursday before heat builds back in for the Fourth of July weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Currently...Showers and thunderstorms have fired up over north Mississippi over the past hour. This activity is occurring over a highly unstable airmass, characterized by 4000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Weak microbursts have been noted with some of the activity, but the overall threat has been low. The main limiting factor for deep organized convection right now is the lack of appreciable shear. Bulk shear remains weak around 15 knots. The more immediate threat appears to be instances of flooding, as storms continue to train over the same areas. The atmosphere is precipitation loaded with areawide PWATS of 2.1 or greater, which is near the max of climatology for this time of year. Short term...The latest water vapor imagery depicts a longwave trough centered over the Upper Midwest with several shortwaves rounding the base of the trough over the Middle Mississippi Valley. A leading, but weak, shortwave is moving into northwest Arkansas right now and firing up another batch of storms. At the surface, a trailing cold front is analyzed from northern Michigan southwest through Chicago and back into Kansas City. This front is forecast to move slowly into the Mid-South overnight and take another 24 hours or so to push south of the region. The aforementioned storms, currently over northwest AR, will slowly translate east through this evening. HREF guidance shows this activity mainly moving along and north of the I-40 corridor through about 2 AM Tuesday morning. There is a chance (