Forecast Discussion
586 FXUS64 KMEG 160425 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1125 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1123 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - A warming trend will continue through late week, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s on Friday. - A cold front will pass through the Mid-South Saturday night, bringing the threat of strong to severe storms. Damaging winds and localized flash flooding are the primary concerns. - Temperatures will cool significantly Sunday and into the beginning of next week with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 An amplified ridge will meander around the ArkLaMiss through Friday, bringing above average temperatures to the Mid-South. Daily highs will range from the mid to upper 80s, accompanied by lows in the 50s and 60s. On Saturday, a large upper level trough over the northern Plains will phase with a shortwave traversing OK/TX. As a result, a strong cold front will push southeast into the Mid-South. Ahead of this boundary, strong southerly flow will advect increased moisture with dewpoints reaching the mid 60s by midday. WAA showers cannot be ruled out Saturday morning as dewpoints rise. However, greater rain chances exist in the evening and overnight hours as a line of thunderstorms pushes into the region. Generally speaking, the severe parameter space on Saturday will be defined by decent kinematics and lack luster thermodynamics. In fact, the latest ensembles struggle to paint greater than 500 J/kg of SBCAPE over the Mid-South. In addition, guidance continues to slow the forward propagation of the front. By the time storms reach the Mid-South on Saturday evening, both kinematics and thermodynamics will be on the decline. Despite this, a messy convective mode comprised of bowing line segments can`t be ruled out. Therefore, damaging winds remain the primary concern. A Slight Risk for severe storms remains in place for the majority of the Mid-South. Behind Saturday`s cold front, fall-like conditions return with highs on Sunday in the upper 60s to low 70s. Temperatures will warm slightly into next week, but another frontal passage on Tuesday will keep temperatures near-normal. Weak moisture return ahead of Tuesday`s front will provide another chance of rain before the middle of next week. ANS && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 VFR through the next 24-30 hours. A strengthening ridge aloft will keep skies mostly clear and surface high pressure to our north- northeast will result in east winds less than 7 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1123 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Minimal fire danger is anticipated through the forecast period as MinRH remains above 30 percent and 20ft winds stay below 10 mph. Wetting rains return Saturday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...JDS