Forecast Discussion
100 FXUS64 KMEG 232304 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 504 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 503 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 - Cold temperatures are expected Tuesday morning with lows in the teens and 20s, with a warming trend into the 60s by midweek. - Rain chances (70% chance or greater) will return Wednesday night into Thursday along a cold front. Some thunderstorm potential (25% to 35% chance) exists Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1203 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Morning surface analysis shows a strong, 1039 mb high stretching from Canada down to the Gulf Coast, centered northwest of the Midsouth. Aloft, a deep longwave trough will continue to drive the weather across the eastern CONUS via the presence of a strong surface cyclone just off the New England coastline. Until the New England low pressure system moves off to the east tonight, decently strong pressure gradient forces and strong mid-level winds will produce gusty winds through this afternoon. Current expectations are for surface temperatures to reach into the mid 30s and low 40s, which if we are assuming a well mixed boundary layer, would result in winds from roughly 850 mb to the potential of mixing down. 12z radiosondes from nearby sites (OHX/LZK/JAN) found winds between 20 - 30 knots in the SFC - 850 mb layer, which is expected to be the magnitude of wind gusts this afternoon. Alongside the wind, a low (< 10%) chance of flurries is possible as a branch of elevated PVA on the western side of the upper trough swings south through the area. Dry forecast and observed upper air profiles preclude the explicit mention of any flurries, but areas near bodies of water could see a few flakes through this afternoon. The upper trough will deamplify and travel to the east into tomorrow, with upper ridging building in across the region. Upper subsidence will allow tomorrow morning to remain cool with lows in the 20s. However, as the surface high slides to our south and east tomorrow, southerlies will return and warm the region back up through the middle of the week. Gusty winds are expected to return as well through the afternoon hours. HREF mean wind gusts approach 40 mph tomorrow across West Tennessee and the Mississippi River Delta, but is in sharp contrast to the NBM mean wind gusts that struggle to reach 30 mph. So, have held off on a Wind Advisory in this forecast package given the poor model-to- model consistency, but trends will need to be monitored overnight. Regardless, highs will be in the 50s tomorrow and in the low to mid 60s Wednesday. In the meantime, the upper ridge across the Central CONUS will gradually break down in response to troughing over southern Canada. By the time Thursday arrives, models are in agreement that low amplitude troughing will take over across the eastern CONUS with multiple embedded shortwaves. One of these embedded waves will pull a weak surface low through the Plains and into the Mid-South Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. Precipitation chances will increase in tandem along a cold front associated with the surface low through Thursday as it passes through the region. Per NAEFS, PWAT values will average just above 1" (90th percentile) with a diurnal increase in CAPE into the afternoon. So, precipitation is expected throughout the entire CWA with an increase in convective coverage is forecast into the afternoon across the southeastern half of the region. However, forecast CAPE values are rather meager (250 J/kg - 500 J/kg), which decreases confidence in any severe storms or flash flooding chances. Regardless, forecast QPF amounts currently range from between 0.30" west of the Mississippi River to just under 1" in our eastern tier of counties across east West Tennessee and northeast Mississippi, with locally higher amounts possible with eastern extent. The frontal passage will conclude Thursday evening and into Friday morning. Troughing will continue across the eastern CONUS through the end of the work week with northwesterly flow prevailing aloft. Therefore, weak surface high pressure and upper subsidence will keep the forecast dry into next weekend. From this point, ensembles are in general agreement that no significant troughing will occur to our west that would point towards a wetter, stormier pattern. However, there is a signal in the NBM that some WAA showers are possible (~30% chance) Sunday and Monday next week, but with lower forecast confidence at this point in the forecast, changes are expected in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 503 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 High confidence (80%+) for VFR conditions prevailing at all sites through the 24-30 hr TAF cycle. A surface high centering over the Mississippi River Valley tonight will result in light and variable winds. As the high shifts east and a Colorado low deepens tomorrow, south-to-southwest winds will strengthen across the Mid-South. Sustained speeds of 10-15 kts with gusts 20-28 kts are expected by midday and will continue through the end of the TAF cycle. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1203 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Below average temperatures will continue today and tonight while a dry, arctic air mass remains in place across the Mid-South. Expect minimum relative humidity values to be in the upper 20s and 30s today and tomorrow with elevated 20 ft winds in the 10 to 15 knot range. Southerly flow will return tomorrow, which will bring enough moisture back by Wednesday to bring minimum relative humidity values back above 40 percent through Thursday. Thursday will be the next chance for wetting rains as a cold front passes through the region. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...JDS