Forecast Discussion
083 FXUS64 KMEG 060525 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1225 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026 - Generally benign weather is expected through the end of the week. - Temperatures will be near normal early in the week, gradually warming back to the upper 70s through the work week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 A generally cool and calm overnight period is progressing across the Mid-South with temperatures spanning the upper 40s to low 50s currently. Temperatures will continue to fall overnight, with most of the area dipping to the low 40s with a few rural locations dipping below 40 degrees near sunrise. Overall, the forecast through much of this week will be a persistence forecast, with dry conditions and temperatures gradually warming through the week. With the remnants of the upper-level trough overhead and northerly surface flow, high temperatures will remain around normal to start this week with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Coupled with the northerly flow, dew points will be somewhat low for the time of year with minRH values falling to the 25-35% range. This could introduce some borderline fire danger concerns until midweek, although wind speeds should remain relatively low through the period. By midweek, surface flow will become southerly once again as surface high pressure drifts to our east. This will allow for temperatures to reach above normal by Wednesday, likely finishing out the week well above-normal in the low to mid 80s. In addition, this flow regime will allow some moisture to creep back into the Mid-South. This will materialize as generally isolated (10-20%) rain chances for the back half of the week, but confidence is overall low given the little forcing that will be around. The first hints of breaking out of this pattern likely would not come until next weekend, but even then models continue to push the timing further and further out. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026 VFR conditions forecast throughout the entire period at all four terminals. Winds will remain northwesterly, increasing to between 5 - 10 knots through Monday afternoon and gusting above 15 knots at TUP. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1024 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 Dry conditions will persist for the foreseeable future, with some borderline fire danger concerns through the first half of this week. MinRH values will hover in the 30-35% through at least Wednesday, although some areas could see values below 30% especially on Monday. Through this timeframe, 20ft winds will remain below 10 mph with the exception of a few locations across NE AR and the MO Bootheel in the afternoons. There is very low confidence for when the next measurable rainfall will occur across the area. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...JAB