Forecast Discussion

302
FXUS64 KMEG 252357 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
557 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 557 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

- Winter precip is winding down as drier air filters in behind the
  winter storm.

- Travel conditions will remain hazardous for several days.
  Subfreezing temperatures will continue through next weekend,
  which will not help melt any snow/sleet/ice on the roads.

- Bitterly cold air will persist into next week, with temperatures
  and wind chills dropping below zero at times. Another cold blast
  is on tap for next weekend.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR END OF WINTER EVENT...
Issued at 404 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

The latest surface analysis places a 1008mb low over east
Tennessee with a 1040mb high over the Northern Plains. Dry and
bitterly cold Arctic air has begun funneling into the region
effectively pushing all wintry precipitation out of the region.
Strong surface high pressure will continue to build into the
region over the next several hours, with bouts of gusty north
winds.

The majority of wintry precipitation has ended across the Mid-
South as of 3PM. There are some very light echoes on KNQA radar,
where light snow and snow flurries continue to track across the
region. The end of event snowfall totals ranged from 2 to
10 inches, with the highest amounts being focused across NE
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and NW Tennessee.

Additionally, a significant ice storm ended over the past
2 hours. Crippling ice totals ranged from one quarter of an inch
to 1 inch from Oxford, MS northeast into New Albany, MS and up
into Corinth, MS. Widespread weather-related power outages
(nearly countywide for several counties), tree damage, and
structural damage is ongoing with numerous impassable roadways.
Conditions will worsen as temperatures plummet into the single
digits overnight.

There is high confidence that skies will clear from north to
south across the Mid-South around midnight. In its wake, a
combination of cold air advection and significant radiational
cooling will result in single digits air temperatures and
negative wind chills by early Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

A devastating ice storm continues for north Mississippi while
snow/sleet is coming to a close for the remainder of the Mid-
South. Clearing is evident on the back side of the precipitation
shield on KNQA radar, which marks the end of the accumulating
precipitation. As drier air filters in, the large rain/snow
shield will transition to more isolated wraparound showers as the
system pulls away. No more than a dusting of additional
sleet/snow is expected, but with that axis of FZRA still ongoing,
areas of north MS and West TN may still see up to an additional
tenth inch of ice through this afternoon. Current plan is to let
the Winter Storm and Ice Storm Warnings expire at their
originally scheduled time at 6PM tonight just given these
wraparound showers and the ongoing FZRA axis in the southeastern
CWA.

Though things are winding down, impacts from this winter storm
will linger long after the precip ends. There have been
widespread power outages reported across north MS, particularly
in the Oxford and New Albany areas. Ice accretion reports have
ranged from a half to three-quarters of an inch along the
freezing rain axis already, creating an absolute mess of downed
trees and power lines due to the added weight of ice. Roads in
these areas are extremely dangerous and at times, impassible.
Travel conditions elsewhere are not much better under the
compacted snow, sleet, and ice. Unfortunately, these conditions
will not be aided by temperatures at all. Extremely efficient CAA
will allow for wind chills to drop into the negatives overnight
into Monday and Tuesday mornings. As such, an Extreme Cold
Warning is in effect areawide through Tuesday morning.

The bitter cold extends well into the work week and even into
next weekend. Forecast afternoon temperatures will not rise above
freezing for most locations (with the exception of our far
southern zones) for the next 7 days, at least. Another blast of
cold air is on the horizon for next weekend with wind chills in
the single digits and negatives again. However, on the bright
side, we have a dry forecast until the end of next weekend. After
today, we do not expect any more liquid or frozen precipitation
through the extended forecast.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Back edge of MVFR CIGs continues to progress south and east. The
back edge was a little ragged and there remains a low chance of a
BKN MVFR layer reforming at MEM and MKL through mid-evening.
Otherwise, expect steady state conditions overnight at the TAF
sites, with NNW winds around 10KT or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1210 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Precipitation is coming to an end this afternoon. Very cold air
is expected to persist through the week, especially Monday and
Tuesday mornings. Fire weather concerns are minimal through the
period.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...PWB