Forecast Discussion
292 FXUS64 KMEG 271750 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 1250 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 - A Slight (level 2/5) Risk to Enhanced (level 3/5) Risk for damaging winds, large hail, and strong tornadoes covers the Mid-South today through early Tuesday morning. - Another round of severe weather is expected Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning with a Slight (2/5) Risk in effect across the entire Mid-South. Primary threats will be damaging and large hail with a secondary threat for a few tornadoes. - Weather will dampen and dry out through the end of next week with near to slightly below normal temperatures returning as early as Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1146 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 A relatively calm and warm start to our day here in the Mid-South so far with gusty south winds at the surface. However, this "calm" will soon change as the latest 15Z surface analysis indicates a stationary boundary bisecting the Mid-South and several pretty stout shortwaves to our west and north. A slightly negatively tilted trough is currently fixated over Kansas and Nebraska with a pretty stout shortwave extending over Iowa and central Missouri. At the surface, a low pressure system is co- located with the shortwave over Iowa and central Missouri with an attendant cold front. Ahead of these systems, a line convection is moving over St. Louis Missouri`s area. Warm air advection will continue to overspread our forecast area throughout the day with current surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Looking at our parameter space, forecast soundings have upwards of 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE, around 40 kts of effective shear, mid-level lapse rates 7.5+ C/km, and STP around 2-3 for the afternoon to mid-afternoon hours. Forecast hodographs also have pretty decent curvature to them indicative of potential strong, up to EF- 3 tornadoes. However, given the aforementioned parameters, we will have a volatile environment for damaging winds (70+ mph) and large hail (up to 2 inch diameter). Note: a Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel for sustained winds around 25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph with a tight pressure gradient. Blowing dust in these areas ahead of storms can not be ruled out due to dry soils from a recent lack of rainfall. A large question remains supercell potential with a pre-frontal boundary currently indicated by satellite imagery over central Arkansas. A few light showers have begun to form along this boundary in Little Rock`s area thus far. As this boundary moves closer and over our area, the last several runs of CAMs indicate supercells beginning to form as early as 1PM over northeast Arkansas and continuing across the Mid-South through around sunset. If these supercells do form, they will be moving over the aforementioned environment capable of producing strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. Uncertainty does still exist, however, regarding afternoon supercells as CAMs have been consistently struggling with the exact evolution of storms. Bottom line, be prepared for this evolution as 700mb winds begin to increase pretty rapidly around 3PM, indicative of a rapidly increasing strong to severe storm environment. Moving past sunset, severe thunderstorm potential increases as the aforementioned cold front edges closer to our area. Forecast hodographs have an even better curvature with STP values increasing to near 5 and 0-6 km bulk wind shear increasing to around 50 kts. The question with evening into the overnight hour`s severe weather remains the overall storm structure. We could be looking at supercells eventually forming into a squall line or a messy cluster over supercells continuing into the overnight hours. Areas along the Missouri and Kentucky borders have the highest potential to see up to EF-3 tornadoes as SPC has highlighted this area in a level 2 hatched. Reason being, this is the area where severe parameters will be the most robust and where a potent shortwave looks to set up overnight. Severe weather looks to finally exit the Mid-South by around 4/5AM. The aforementioned cold front will stall over our area Tuesday bringing another round of severe weather by mid-afternoon Tuesday and into the early morning hours Wednesday. We will have another pretty volatile environment with 2500+ J/kg of SBCAPE, around 40 kts of effective shear, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, and SHIP values around 1.3, in accordance with forecast soundings. Forecast hodographs do have less curvature to them, indicating less of a tornado threat tomorrow. The overall storm structure looks to have several bowing segments, especially over north Mississippi. A few embedded discreet cells also look to move across our area tomorrow. These discreet cells will have more of a hail and tornado threat within them where the bowing segments will have more of a damaging wind threat. Through Wednesday morning, storm total rainfall amounts will be around 2-3 inches across much of the area with locally higher amounts. Luckily, we`re not looking at much of a flooding threat due to a recent lack of rainfall. By sunrise Wednesday, the cold front will finally clear the Mid-South, bringing much calmer and cooler weather. A few post-frontal showers can not be ruled out, though nothing to write home about. Cooler temperatures in the low 70s to low 80s are expected Wednesday with even cooler temperatures by Thursday. Another shortwave will eject in front the west late Thursday increasing rain chances once again, though thunderstorms are not anticipated as our environment will be pretty stable. Behind this next system, we`re looking cool and dry for the weekend as high pressure falls over the region. AEH && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 The primary forecast challenge is the onset timing of TSRA this afternoon. More than sufficient convective instability was in place at 17Z for TSRA. However a warmer elevated mixed layer was capping deep moist convection. This convective cap will likely break as stronger winds aloft (FL050-100) arrive from the west in the 20Z-21Z time window. Coverage will initially be scattered until stronger broad forcing arrives by midevening. After 03Z, TSRA may form into a broken line north of MEM, moving ESE. TSRA will likely clear MEM by the start of the overnight outbound push, though confidence on exact timing is limited. Expect a near repeat Tuesday afternoon, but with increased TSRA coverage relative to this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1146 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 Upcoming showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday will keep minimum relative humidity values above 40% through the forecast period. In conjunction with weak 20 ft winds, fire danger is expected to be low through the period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026-028. MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...PWB