Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS64 KMEG 250918 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 418 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 418 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast across the Midsouth today, following the passage of a cold front on Wednesday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and evening, mainly to the north of Memphis. Following today`s brief cooldown, warmer and more humid conditions will spread into the Midsouth on Friday and persist through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over eastern Arkansas and the Missouri bootheel. Rain chances will increase over all the Midsouth Sunday night and Monday, as an upper level disturbance and Pacific cold front pass through. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 418 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Overall, few changes from earlier forecasts. Active weather will remain over the southern and central plains through Saturday, as two upper level lows lift from the 4-corners region to the upper Midwest. The Midsouth will remain on the far eastern extent of thunderstorm probabilities, under the western periphery of a semi-persistent upper level ridge over the Southeast. The trough in the west/ridge in the east pattern will begin to break down on Sunday, aided by progressive southern branch trough lifting through the southern plains. Midlevel height falls and an associated Pacific cold frontal passage will provide focus for showers and thunderstorms late Sunday night and Monday. Elevated CAPE during this period will likely prevail below 500 J/kg, limiting severe storm threat. Precipitable water values around 1.75 inches will support locally heavy rainfall, but the overall flooding threat should be limited by the progressive nature of the upper trough. Following a brief period of zonal flow aloft on Tuesday, an upper ridge will amplify upstream over the plains. This is further west than earlier depicted by the models and would expose the Midsouth northwest flow aloft and another cold frontal passage in the middle of next week. PWB && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 As a warm front lifts north over the region, scattered showers will accompany the boundary starting around 18Z at JBR, following suit at the rest of the terminals through the late evening. Another round of precip originally looked to move in overnight after 00Z Friday, but the latest CAMs have backed off quite a bit on this. VFR ceilings should overspread the airspace by mid morning and stick around through the end of the period. Winds should remain generally east/northeasterly 6-9 kts. CAD && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...CAD