Forecast Discussion
633 FXUS64 KMEG 171121 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 521 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1048 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025 - A warming trend is expected through Thursday, with scattered showers beginning early Wednesday and high temperatures in the mid-50s to low-60s. - A low risk of severe thunderstorms exists Thursday, followed by a significant temperature drop with subfreezing lows by Friday morning. - Mild temperatures will return for the weekend and are expected to persist through at least the middle of next week. At this time, it appears that above normal temperatures will prevail on Christmas Day. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1048 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025 A mild weather pattern appears in store throughout the next 7 to 10 days, following our recent Arctic cold snap last weekend. Friday remains the exception to the mild pattern, but temperatures will quickly recover over the weekend and warm gradually from there. Short and medium range model guidance remained consistent in showing a deep northern branch upper low lifting across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region on Thursday. A polar cold front will follow this feature across the central and northern Great Plains, while some Pacific air is directed toward the southern Great Plains. For the Midsouth, this will result in a one day cold snap - roughly a 15 to 20 degree drop with highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s. With the aid of steep midlevel height falls, the cold front will surge quickly through the Midsouth Thursday afternoon - just inside the window of the 48 hour CAMs. Their solution is similar to the earlier LREF and deterministic ECMWF and and GFS, showing prefrontal deep layer shear around 60 knots and MUCAPE below 200 J/kg. This concurs with depicted soundings, which show a 100- 150mb deep moist thermal inversion above the surface, overtopped by nearly moist adiabatic lapse rates. Given the strong kinematics, this system bears watching. At this time the modest CAPE is correctly depicted in model consensus, it would limit our severe threat on Thursday. The upper level pattern will quickly transition to zonal by Friday evening, with low level southerly return flow underway over MO and much of AR. Under this zonal flow a low level baroclinic zone - stalled frontal boundary - may be draped east to west across the Midsouth on Sunday. A few warm air advection showers are indicated by ECMWF and GFS guidance near this surface boundary, likely aided by the right entrance region of an upper jet core across the OH River Valley. Other than Sunday`s rain chances, next week appears predominately dry at this time. Medium range guidance continues to amplify an upper ridge over the central CONUS, with 500mb heights around 582 dam over the Midsouth on Christmas Day. A quite impressive 17 dam over climatology for this time of year. PWB && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 Return flow is underway across the Midsouth. South winds will persist today and tonight, strengthening ahead of the next cold front expected to arrive late tonight into early Thursday. Light rain showers near MEM this morning should not be impactful to aviation. However, heavier rain is expected near JBR by 18th/12Z and MEM before 18Z along and ahead of the front. Cigs will lower to MVFR levels today although the timing remains highly uncertain. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1048 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025 Minimum relative humidity values will increase substantially on Wednesday as Gulf air moves into the region. A few light showers will occur Wednesday, followed by high chances of wetting rainfall on Thursday. A warming trend will begin this weekend and persist into early next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...JDS