Forecast Discussion
118 FXUS64 KMEG 052340 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 540 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 531 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025 - Above-normal temperatures continue through Saturday, with high temperatures in the mid 70s. Some locations could approach the upper 70s on Friday and Saturday across north Mississippi. - There is a low confidence threat of strong to severe thunderstorms mainly east of the Mississippi River Friday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and hail are the main concerns if a strong storm develops. - Significantly colder temperatures will arrive Sunday through the beginning of next week, with low temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s Monday and Tuesday mornings. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Tuesday) Issued at 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025 Another pleasant, albeit a bit warm, day across the Mid-South with a few clouds currently traversing the area. Zonal flow aloft will give way to a weak upper-level ridge into tomorrow, with a weak trough developing into Friday. This will keep temperatures in the above-normal range through Saturday, with high temperatures spanning the mid 70s today and tomorrow and the mid to upper 70s Friday and Saturday. By Friday, with the developing upper-level trough, a weak cold front will push towards the area. There is still considerable uncertainty along this frontal boundary, but there is the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. Right now the biggest question mark will be our instability, with CAMs just now reaching the Friday period not as excited as some other guidance. Low-level jet will begin to strengthen by the afternoon to evening, so if we can capitalize on any instability all modes of severe weather would be possible. The best potential does appear to be east of the Mississippi River, with the highest joint probabilities closer to the TN River and NE MS / NW AL. Certainly something to keep an eye on, but there is too much uncertainty and spread in the guidance currently for this to be anything more than a low confidence event. Isolated to scattered showers will remain in the forecast on Saturday, but should be confined to the eastern half of the area. By Sunday, a reinforcing frontal boundary will move through the Mid-South with a deepening trough axis across the region. This will usher out any lingering precipitation as well as knock temperatures back to well below-normal through Tuesday. In addition, low temperatures will be some of the coldest we have seen so far this season Monday and Tuesday mornings. There appears to be a high chance (>70%) of an area-wide freeze with a medium chance (40-60%) of a hard freeze (