Forecast Discussion

229
FXUS64 KMEG 270419
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1019 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1019 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

- Prolonged extreme cold will continue to create dangerous
  conditions through this week, particularly for areas in North
  Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee still impacted by
  power outages.

- Travel conditions will remain hazardous for several days.
  Subfreezing temperatures will continue for many locations
  through next weekend, which will not help melt any
  snow/sleet/ice on the roads.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1019 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

A cold night with clear skies is underway across the Mid-South.
Temperatures are ranging from the upper single digits across
northwest Tennessee to around 20 degrees across north
Mississippi.  Winds have generally slowed, but due to the already
cold temperatures, any slight bit of wind will have bitterly cold
wind chills. The feels like temperatures are in the 5 to 5 below
range across most of the area, with the exception of our southern
tier of counties across north Mississippi hovering around
10 degrees.

A strong area of high pressure has begun its southeast descent
causing our winds to shift from the northwest to the southwest.
The wind shift will keep temperatures from plunging much further
under clear skies. Temperatures early Tuesday morning will still
drop to the single digits, sub zero for some areas, with wind
chill values as low as -12F across northwest Tennessee. The
Extreme Cold Warning Covers this well and is likely to be allowed
to expire at its original time of 12 PM Tuesday. Skies will
remain clear and bring in an abundance of sunshine to aid in the
slow thaw. Sleet pack is more difficult to melt than snow pack
due to its opacity, so minimal melting is expected as sub-
freezing temperatures persist. There may be a glimmer of hope
across the region for a narrow window of greater than 32F
temperatures tomorrow afternoon from the southwest flow. From the
HREF, probabilities of temperatures greater than 32F are
generally between 20-60%. The corridor for the favored area is
from Jonesboro to Tupelo and westwards. Clarksdale and Amory have
much higher probabilities and are likely to rise above freezing.

While the southwest flow may benefit our temperatures, it will
bring enhanced moisture and threaten freezing fog Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. Probabilities of less than a half of mile
visibility are already hovering between 40-60% by 10 PM. Hi-res
guidance does generally confine this to the I-40 corridor, with a
little wiggle room slightly north and south of it. This is a
fairly strong signal early on, this is definitely something to
keep an eye on.

Wednesday will be gradually a repeat of Tuesday, but slightly
cooler with morning fog and cloud cover prohibiting warming. A
weak surface low will begin to develop over the ArkLaTex region
and WAA will bring the warmest day of the week on Thursday. The
surface low is favored to track along the Gulf Coast and stretch
another cold front across the region by Friday morning. A Cold
Weather Advisory may be warranted along the northern edge of the
Mid-South for apparent temperatures being less than 0F as
probabilities from the LREF are 40-60%. If Cold Weather Headlines
are not needed Friday, confidence increases for needing these
products over the weekend with probabilities greater than 70%
area wide for apparent temperatures less than 0F Saturday
morning. The cold weather does not look to budge as a synoptic
change is not anticipated through at least early next week.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Southwesterly winds will gradually increase overnight, behind an
exiting surface pressure ridge axis. A few gusts will be possible
by midmorning, but gusts should be the exception beyond 20Z.

The winds will bring higher dewpoints that will result in narrow
post-sunset dewpoint depressions over and downstream of the snow
and ice pack Tuesday evening. In addition, a frontal boundary
will sag southward late Tuesday night, providing additional
convergence and IFR potential. At this time, HREF depicts likely
FZFG and BR across a good portion of the Midsouth toward 12Z
Wednesday, while GFS LAMP and NBM tabular guidance maintain VFR.
Given the favorable setup, it would appear the early signal in
the HREF appears warranted.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1019 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Very cold air is expected to persist through the week, especially
Tuesday morning. There is a low to medium chance of freezing fog
Wednesday morning. Fire weather concerns are minimal through the
period.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB