Forecast Discussion
584 FXUS64 KMEG 081743 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 1143 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1143 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 - Temperatures will gradually warm each day with highs near normal by Wednesday. - Colder air will move into the Mid-South this weekend. Highs both Saturday and Sunday will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1029 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 A series of shortwave troughs will impact the Mid-South through midweek. Southerly surface winds will allow gradual WAA through Wednesday, when high temperatures return to the mid and upper 50s.Unfortunately, warmer temperatures will not stick around for long as a surface low pressure system and attendant cold front push across the Great Lakes Region on Wednesday. Eventual FROPA will occur by midday with cooler air funneling into the Mid-South overnight. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. Elsewhere in CONUS on Friday, a piece of the Polar Vortex will eject across the Great Lakes Region. This will allow for a Continental Polar airmass to settle over a large portion of CONUS. The latest guidance suggests a more northerly ejection of this airmass, meaning the coldest air will remain confined to the midwest. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be well below normal locally with highs ranging from the upper 30s to upper 40s. The coldest morning will occur on Saturday as lows drop to the low 20s for areas north of I-40. Rain chances return on Sunday, but overall QPF amounts will be less than a quarter of an inch. ANS && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 A clearing line north of HKA has slowed its southward progress this morning, but VFR should arrive at MEM by 00Z. Guidance remains mixed on whether eroding MVFR CIGs around TUP will reform later this evening. At this time, chances appear better than even for MVFR CIGs at TUP overnight, but confidence is lower than typical. PWB && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1029 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with MinRH values remaining above 40%. Dry conditions and light 20ft winds will continue through the remainder of the period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...PWB