Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KMEG 042041

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
241 PM CST Sat Feb 4 2023


Issued at 203 PM CST Sat Feb 4 2023

The dry and milder weather pattern will continue for the remainder
of the weekend through Monday night. The weather pattern becomes
more progressive starting Tuesday as a series of upper level
troughs swing through the region. The first one of these will
bring showers and a few thunderstorms to the Mid-South starting
Tuesday and continuing through Thursday morning. The next upper
level trough may bring some additional precipitation on Friday.
Temperatures will remain above normal for Tuesday through Thursday
before cooler air returns to the region on Friday.


(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 203 PM CST Sat Feb 4 2023

Skies are mostly cloudy across the Mid-South this afternoon with
temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to lower 50s. The clouds
are associated with an upper level disturbance which is moving
across northern Arkansas.

It will remain cloudy tonight which will help keep temperatures
from falling too much as lows Sunday morning will be in the mid to
upper 30s. Dry weather and warmer temperatures are expected on
Sunday as highs will be in the upper 40s to lower 60s. It will be
even warmer on Monday as highs reach the mid 50s to mid 60s.

By Tuesday, a cold front will be moving into western Arkansas.
Some showers are expected to develop ahead of the front and move
across the Mid-South for Tuesday and Tuesday night. By Wednesday
morning, the cold front will be near the Mid-South. Low pressure
is forecast to develop along the front and move northeast across
Arkansas and into southeast Missouri. This low will help bring
more showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to the Mid-South for
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Once this low clears out of the region on Thursday, rain should
end. Another upper level trough is expected to move through the
region on Friday and Friday night bringing another round of
precipitation. The models are not in very good agreement with this
system. The GFS is hinting as some possible winter weather (mainly
in the form of snow) for Friday night but most of the other models
are leaning toward only rain. Behind this system, colder air is
expected to move into the region bringing temperatures back to
below normal.

High pressure is expected to start building into the region by
next Saturday with dry and colder weather expected.


(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Sat Feb 4 2023

Primarily a wind forecast through 12Z Sunday. A high MVFR cloud
deck will build north through the delta overnight, ahead of a
midlevel trough. This deck should mix out by late morning Sunday,
as the midlevel trof lifts east of the Midsouth TAF sites.