Forecast Discussion

076
FXUS64 KMEG 300539
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1139 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1138 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

- Driving conditions will remain hazardous into the weekend due to
  the re-freezing of melted wintry precipitation.

- An Arctic air mass will bring frigid temperatures back to the
  forecast this weekend. Single digit and negative wind chills are
  anticipated Saturday morning.

- Temperatures will warm next week with rain chances increasing on
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

A weak shortwave continues to impact the Mid-South tonight,
pushing an Arctic front through the region. There is a low
(10 percent) chance of freezing precipitation through sunrise as
the aforementioned front continues south. Short-term model
soundings depict limited moisture availability within the DGZ,
meaning any appreciable frozen precipitation is unlikely. In
fact, the latest HRRR and RAP soundings resemble a typical
freezing drizzle set-up. The best corridor for freezing drizzle
will exist in northeast AR, but the window for any precipitation
will be limited to a few hours. No impacts are anticipated.

The bigger weather story impacting CONUS this weekend will be the
development of a Nor`easter. The genesis of this system will
occur later today over MO. Frigid air will funnel into the Mid-
South as this disturbance treks southeast through Saturday. The
coldest apparent temperatures will occur Saturday morning as
"feels-like" conditions drop below 0 nearly areawide. An Extreme
Cold Warning and Cold Weather Advisory are in effect for Saturday
morning. In addition to cold temperatures, gusty winds will
accompany this system on Saturday. Guidance continues to depict
an 8mb spread across the forecast area with gusts near 30 mph in
the afternoon. Winds will subside by Sunday morning, but wind
chills will remain in the single digits to low teens. One thing
to note is that the latest guidance did come in a bit warmer for
Sunday morning. If this trend continues, future forecast updates
may include the removal of the Cold Weather Advisory for the
northern portions of the Mid-South.

Luckily, the frigid Arctic air will not last long as a warming
trend kicks off on Monday. Southerly surface winds will advect
warm and moist air back into the Mid-South with highs in the 40s
and 50s by Tuesday. Rain chances return Tuesday afternoon as a
shortwave pushes across the southern Plains. Given warmer
temperatures in place, any precipitation that does fall will be
liquid. Showers will continue through Wednesday with areas in
north MS forecast to receive up to 1 inch of rain through
Thursday morning. The end of next week will be dry with slightly
below normal temperatures.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Midlevel clouds associated with a compact upper level disturbance
will overspread the Midsouth overnight. MVFR CIGs may briefly
develop at MEM prior to daybreak, down the back side of the
associated surface low. Concurrent to this, Arctic air will begin
to flow in, with low to medium chances of high MVFR CIGs through
early afternoon.

A reinforcing Arctic cold front will pass through early Friday
evening, with likely chances of high MVFR CIGs at all Midsouth TAF
sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1138 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

A cold and dry air mass will overspread the Mid-South this
weekend, leading to frigid temperatures through Sunday. MinRH
will remain in the 40 to 50 percent range through early next
week. 20ft winds may exceed 10 kts on Saturday, but fuel moisture
remains plenty enough to preclude any fire weather threat.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Friday to noon CST Sunday for
     ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM Friday to 9 AM CST Saturday for
     ARZ058.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for
     ARZ058.

MO...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Friday to noon CST Sunday for
     MOZ113-115.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Friday to noon CST Sunday for
     MSZ001>009-014.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM Friday to 9 AM CST Saturday for
     MSZ010>013-015>017-020>024.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for
     MSZ010>013-015>017-020>024.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Friday to noon CST Sunday for
     TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB