Forecast Discussion


650
FXUS64 KMEG 221954
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
254 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

- There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms mainly along
  and south of Interstate 40 Sunday afternoon and evening. The
  primary severe weather risk will be large hail.

- Warm temperatures are expected for the latter half of next week
  with some locations reaching the upper 70s to around 80
  degrees.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances are possible by next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Sunny and dry conditions have persisted as the Mid-South remains
under the influence of a surface high located off the Florida
Gulf Coast. Temperatures have risen into the upper 60s to lower
70s this afternoon with relative humidity values ranging between
15 to 20 percent. Latest surface analysis shows a cold front over
the northern Rockies.

Southerly winds on the back side of high pressure will begin to
advect higher surface dewpoints across the Lower Mississippi
Valley tonight. Temperatures won`t be as cold tonight with lows in
the middle 40s to middle 50s. The aforementioned cold front is
expected to move into the Lower Mississippi on Sunday. Latest
short-term model trends indicate some rain showers may affect
portions of the Mid-South Sunday morning north of I-40.

The best instability will reside along and south of I-40 by
Sunday afternoon as temperatures rise into the 70s. Short-term
model soundings indicate an 850-700 mb capping inversion will be
initially present across this area. This cap should weaken by
late afternoon into Sunday evening as modest mid-level height
falls begin to spread across the region. Cold mid-level
temperatures supporting steep mid-level lapse rates combined with
40-45 kts of shear (mainly unidirectional) and surface-based CAPE
values of 800-1200 J/kg will support the potential for large hail
as the primary severe weather threat, and a secondary threat of
damaging winds. The overall severe threat will begin to wane
Sunday evening with the loss of daytime instability.

Drier air will filter into the Mid-South by Monday with rain-free
conditions persisting through late week. Long-term deterministic
and ensemble model runs indicate the next chance of showers and
thunderstorms may arrive by next weekend as another mid-level
shortwave trough moves through the Mississippi Valley. Some timing
differences still remain between the solutions but should
hopefully be better resolved in upcoming model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into Sunday morning
across the TAF sites. However, latest guidance is indicating a
MVFR deck will develop mid/late Sunday morning and move across
JBR/MEM/MKL. Latest TAFs were updated to include MVFR ceilings at
those three sites. Otherwise, winds will pick up on Sunday and
become gusty out of the SSW and SW. Gusts between 20 and 25 knots
can be expected by the end of the forecast period. With respect to
convection, an area of showers and storms should remain north of
the terminals tonight. For Sunday, convection should hold off
until after 18z, but did include VCSH remarks at the MEM.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...TAB