Forecast Discussion

269
FXUS64 KMEG 200431
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1031 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1031 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Bouts of isolated showers will continue through early Saturday
  morning as a couple of cold fronts move through the region.

- Below freezing temperatures will return Sunday and Monday, with
  a warmup towards midweek.

- Rain chances will return by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1031 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

The latest surface analysis places a 994mb low on the MO/IL
border and stretching a cold front nearly parallel to the
Mississippi River. The lift from this boundary has a narrow line
of convection developing, apparent on KNQA. This convection is
expected to remain tamed with gusty winds as the primary concern.
Rain rates are pretty high, but with a quick moving LLJ these
storms aren`t in one place for too long.

This front will continue to sweep through the area and be free of
the region by sunrise. Much drier air is behind the front, where
dewpoints have already dropped into the 30s 40s across east
central Arkansas and southwest Missouri. This same boundary will
attempt to retreat north tomorrow as a warm front, bringing
shower and thunderstorm chances across north Mississippi. Given
how dry the air is that is filtering in, showers and storms will
likely struggle to develop, resulting in very low QPF amounts.
Less than a quarter of an inch is expected with the activity
Friday into Saturday. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out,
due to the lift from the warm front, but thunderstorm ingredients
are lacking overall.

Rain chances will begin to taper off Saturday afternoon, and the
entire Mid-South should be rainfree by Saturday evening. A strong
area of high pressure will begin sinking from Canada and impede
on the Mid-South. Temperatures will retreat to slightly below
normal for Sunday highs before plummeting sub-freezing by Monday
morning. Probabilities of temperatures less than 32F Sunday
morning is 60% or greater areawide, with high confidence for
northern portions of the Mid-South. Temperatures will not warm
much on Monday due to elevated northwest flow continuing to
filter in cold air. Tuesday morning will be even colder as the
surface high centers over us, lightening winds and clearing skies
for a great radiational cooling setup. Probabilities of a hard
freeze (