Forecast Discussion

360
FXUS64 KMEG 171734
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1234 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

- Temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 80s to near 90
  degrees.

- Rain chances return Saturday with showers and a few
  thunderstorms anticipated throughout the day.

- Near-normal temperatures return Sunday and Monday with highs
  warming into the mid 80s by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Strong upper level ridging continues to build into the Mid-South
today, resulting in highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
Should a climate site reach the 90 degree mark, it will beat our
average first 90 degree day by a month. The latest NBM painted a
15 to 20 percent chance of showers developing along the TN/KY
border late this afternoon. However, most model guidance has
backed off on this potential and current radar trends don`t
support mentionable PoPs. Decreased rain chances below 15 percent
to account for this change.

This afternoon, the center of a strengthening upper low will
maneuver along the northern United States / Canadian border with
an attendant cold front stretching southwest into the Plains. A
line of strong to severe thunderstorms will form in the KS/OK
vicinity and trek east through the overnight hours. Remnants of
this activity will reach the Mid-South around 4AM. Showers and a
few rumbles of thunder are anticipated through mid-morning as
precipitation moves southeast. A somewhat tricky forecast will
emerge in the afternoon over northeast Mississippi. Surface
instability will increase to around 500 J/kg and bulk shear will
approach 45 kts. While these ingredients typically favor
organized convection, most guidance depicts the aforementioned
front quickly overtaking any storms that manage to develop. A
strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, but the window for any
severe weather would be very brief. The Storm Prediction Center
has held off on issuing a Marginal Risk for the new Day
2 convective outlook due to skinny CAPE profiles and displacement
from the deep-layer forcing. Future forecast updates may include
a Marginal outlook as details become more refined. Rainfall
totals will remain meager on Saturday with a max of .75 inches
anticipated.

Cool and dry air will funnel into the Mid-South on Sunday,
resulting in highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Temperatures will
warm to the low to mid 70s on Monday as southerly winds return.
Elevated fire danger will exist both Sunday and Monday as MinRH
falls near 25 to 30 percent. Light winds will mitigate the need
for a Red Flag Warning, but dead fuel moisture of 10 percent may
necessitate a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement for both days. By
Tuesday, higher dew points return to the Mid-South. The remainder
of the week will feature temperatures warming to the mid 80s.
Long range guidance suggests an increase in rain chances next
Friday and Saturday. However, confidence in this occurring is
low.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

VFR conditions continue currently ahead of a frontal boundary
that will bring multiple waves of SHRA early tomorrow morning and
through the daytime tomorrow.  Given the multiple waves, there is
still uncertainty with timing but have introduced some mention of
-SHRA at JBR as early as 09Z, and as early as 12Z for MEM and
MKL. There is medium to high confidence in at least some
temporary cig drops to MVFR at MEM, MKL, and JBR, with low
confidence for drops to IFR, especially after 15Z. Gusty, S/SW
winds will continue for JBR and MEM in particular through the
period, with gusts upwards of 20 to 25 kts. S/SW winds will
quickly shift to N/NW as the frontal boundary passes through the
area tomorrow morning and afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Fire weather danger returns on Sunday and Monday as MinRH drops
to 25-30 percent. 20ft winds at this time will be light, but dead
fuel moisture near 10 percent may necessitate a Rangeland Fire
Danger Statement for both days. Fire weather potential decreases
on Tuesday as elevated dewpoints funnel back into the Mid-South.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CMA