Forecast Discussion
350 FXUS64 KMEG 040547 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1247 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will impact the Mid-South on Saturday. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, mainly across north Mississippi. Damaging wind is the primary hazard. - Generally benign weather is anticipated Sunday through the end of next week. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal early in the week, gradually warming through the work week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1054 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 As of 11PM, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms is located over central Arkansas with a more robust line of convection along a cold front over Oklahoma. This leading wave will reach the Mid- South over the next several hours, producing rain showers. Thunderstorm chances will increase around sunrise as the aforementioned line of storms moves into the region. SBCAPE will be on the increase throughout the day with the highest values centering over northeast MS by early afternoon (around 1000 J/kg). This, combined with bulk shear of 30 kts, will produce a marginal damaging wind threat as storms approach the MS/AL border. Upscale storm growth will be hindered by lack- luster midlevel lapse rates. Storms will exist in an environment consisting of surface lapse rates around 8.0 - 8.5 C/km and midlevel rates of 5.0 C/km. Initially, storms will have no issue popping up, but the lackluster midlevel lapse rates will limit the overall severe potential. As of now, CSU Machine Learning Probabilities are only pinging a marginal wind threat, which is in line with the current Storm Prediction Center outlook. Rainfall totals will remain in the 1 to 1.5 inch range with this system. While this will be beneficial, it will not be the drought buster rain event the Mid-South is in search of. Showers and thunderstorms will clear the area by Sunday morning, allowing northerly winds and cooler temperatures to filter into the region. Highs Sunday through Tuesday will be much more seasonable - in the 60s and 70s. Models continue to show a non- impactful shortwave moving over the area on Wednesday. Behind this feature, temperatures will increase through the remainder of the work week. Warm and humid conditions will be in place through the upcoming weekend. Long range guidance continues to hint at rain chances next weekend. For now though, it remains too early to tell potential impacts. Stay tuned. ANS && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 VFR currently prevails at all four terminals with only high clouds and southerly winds up to 10 knots. A cold front to our west will inch its way eastward throughout the night, eventually bringing showers and thunderstorms into the region. The majority of guidance brings TSRA to JBR around between 08z - 12z, arriving at MEM, MKL, and TUP sequentially through today. MVFR impacts are expected to accompany the front`s arrival both from visibility reductions from rain and CIGs. Rain will continue to fall behind the main convective line with IFR CIGs expected for a few hours at each terminal with further improvement with time through the end of the period. Lastly, prior to the frontal passage, gusty southerly winds of up to 20 knots are forecast with a northwesterly wind shift behind the front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1054 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 Wetting rain chances will exist areawide on Saturday. Early next week, a dry air mass will move into the area with MinRH around 30 percent. Elevated fire weather concerns may materialize Monday and Tuesday, but increasing moisture will hamper concerns by Wednesday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...JAB