Forecast Discussion


000
FXUS64 KMEG 272339
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
539 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

.UPDATE...
Aviation Update below


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 256 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020/

DISCUSSION...

A few rain showers are ongoing across portions of North
Mississippi as well as Southwest Tennessee. We can`t rule out a
lightning strike or two this afternoon especially in the southern
tier of Midsouth counties. Rainfall totals will be minimal as
Showers/storms move quickly to the East...probably less than one
tenth of an inch. The threat of thunderstorms will diminish after
sunset and showers should quickly move into Alabama.

A weak ridge will build over the Midsouth tonight in response to
a deepening cutoff low over the Southwestern US and Southern
Plains. As a result, expect a clear and dry first half of the
weekend. High temperatures Saturday will range from the low 50s to
low 60s.

Saturday night, the cutoff low will track across the Texas
panhandle and Oklahoma, approaching West Arkansas by sunrise.
Conditions across the Midsouth will deteriorate quickly Saturday
night, with rain across portions of East Arkansas and North
Mississippi by sunrise. Sunday morning lows will be in the mid 30s
to mid 50s. The cutoff low is expected to track across Little
Rock and Memphis, then along the Mississippi, Alabama and
Tennessee State lines while developing into an open wave. An
associated cold front will sweep across the Midsouth late Sunday.
Rain is likely area wide Sunday into Sunday night, with most of
the area getting accumulations between 1 and 1.5 inches. Guidance
is in fairly good agreement up until this point in the forecast.
Late Sunday night as the colder air arrives, portions of West
Tennessee could see a brief change over to wintry precipitation.
However, as is common in the Midsouth, the moisture could exit
just before the cold air arrives resulting in just cold rain
followed by dry conditions at sunrise. The window for any wintry
precipitation would likely be 3-6am, and most likely near the
Tennessee River.

Monday and Tuesday will be bitterly cold as a narrow ridge builds
in behind the exiting longwave trough. Monday will begin near to
slightly above freezing, but remain in the 30s all day across most
of the Midsouth. Strong North wind will make it feel even colder,
but also help to dry roadways before sub-freezing temperatures
invade all of the Midsouth Monday night. Temperatures are
expected to fall into the mid 20s area wide Tuesday morning. Wind
chills will be in the teens across most of the Midsouth.

Wednesday through the remainder of the work, guidance is in poor
to very poor agreement. It looks likely that we will remain in an
active and cool pattern, but the chance, timing, and type of any
precipitation in highly questionable. Will focus more on the
short term system and cold temperatures for now and advertise
generic low chance pops and mostly cold rain Wednesday through
Friday.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF

With the showers moving across northern MS TUP will remain MVFR
with intermittent IFR through late tomorrow morning. Elsewhere
VFR conditions will prevail. Winds NNE 5-10kts through most of the
period for all TAF sites. There is a possibility of some gusty
winds overnight but confidence was low so it was not added into
this TAF cycle. Will continue to watch trends and adjust
accordingly. Towards the end of the TAF cycle winds NE 3-5kts.

SMW

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$