Forecast Discussion
650 FXUS64 KMEG 221954 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 254 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 245 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 - There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms mainly along and south of Interstate 40 Sunday afternoon and evening. The primary severe weather risk will be large hail. - Warm temperatures are expected for the latter half of next week with some locations reaching the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. - Additional shower and thunderstorm chances are possible by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Sunny and dry conditions have persisted as the Mid-South remains under the influence of a surface high located off the Florida Gulf Coast. Temperatures have risen into the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon with relative humidity values ranging between 15 to 20 percent. Latest surface analysis shows a cold front over the northern Rockies. Southerly winds on the back side of high pressure will begin to advect higher surface dewpoints across the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Temperatures won`t be as cold tonight with lows in the middle 40s to middle 50s. The aforementioned cold front is expected to move into the Lower Mississippi on Sunday. Latest short-term model trends indicate some rain showers may affect portions of the Mid-South Sunday morning north of I-40. The best instability will reside along and south of I-40 by Sunday afternoon as temperatures rise into the 70s. Short-term model soundings indicate an 850-700 mb capping inversion will be initially present across this area. This cap should weaken by late afternoon into Sunday evening as modest mid-level height falls begin to spread across the region. Cold mid-level temperatures supporting steep mid-level lapse rates combined with 40-45 kts of shear (mainly unidirectional) and surface-based CAPE values of 800-1200 J/kg will support the potential for large hail as the primary severe weather threat, and a secondary threat of damaging winds. The overall severe threat will begin to wane Sunday evening with the loss of daytime instability. Drier air will filter into the Mid-South by Monday with rain-free conditions persisting through late week. Long-term deterministic and ensemble model runs indicate the next chance of showers and thunderstorms may arrive by next weekend as another mid-level shortwave trough moves through the Mississippi Valley. Some timing differences still remain between the solutions but should hopefully be better resolved in upcoming model runs. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into Sunday morning across the TAF sites. However, latest guidance is indicating a MVFR deck will develop mid/late Sunday morning and move across JBR/MEM/MKL. Latest TAFs were updated to include MVFR ceilings at those three sites. Otherwise, winds will pick up on Sunday and become gusty out of the SSW and SW. Gusts between 20 and 25 knots can be expected by the end of the forecast period. With respect to convection, an area of showers and storms should remain north of the terminals tonight. For Sunday, convection should hold off until after 18z, but did include VCSH remarks at the MEM. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...TAB