Forecast Discussion


059
FXUS64 KMEG 190448
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1148 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Current NQA radar indicates a few clusters of pop-up convection over
northern Mississippi. As we move into the overnight hours, isolated
pop-up convection will continue moving over northern Mississippi
along a few shortwaves ejecting from the west. Though severe weather
is not expected with these storms, gusty winds and a few pockets of
heavy rainfall may be possible. Current temperatures are in the mid
70s to lower 80s with a few gusty winds at the surface and a thin
cumulus deck strewn over areas south of I-40. As several
shortwaves continue to eject from the west, 30-50% chance PoPs
will remain in the forecast in areas mainly south of I-40
tomorrow. Another beautiful temperature day with highs in the low
to mid 80s is on tap for tomorrow as dry air continues to be
ushered southeast, across the Mid-South.

Overnight PoPs were increased slightly in accordance with latest
radar imagery. Otherwise, the current forecast package is on
track.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Below normal temperatures and daily rain chances for north
Mississippi will be the story each day this forecast period due to
a stalled frontal boundary.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

A low level frontal boundary has been draped across north
Mississippi for the last 48 hours and will continue to be the
main weather-maker for the majority of this forecast period.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across north MS in
periodic waves as shortwaves eject from the main low pressure
system over the ArkLaMiss region. None of these "rounds" of
convection look particularly robust; cloud cover and rain shields
will limit much of any workable instability but thunderstorms will
be possible each day south of I-40.

Though the frontal boundary may retrograde back north a bit over
the next few days, there looks to be very little movement through
the middle of next week. As a result, the northwestern half of the
CWA will get to enjoy a cooler, drier airmass while the
southeastern zones are stuck with incessant waves of convection
and higher humidity on the warm side of the boundary through early
next week. Fortunately, below normal temperatures sub-90 degrees
are expected through the end of the long range forecast as a deep
upper trough sets up over the central CONUS mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain over portions of
northeast Mississippi will continue during the overnight hours.
Some low level clouds are expected to move into portions of north
Mississippi Friday morning producing MVFR ceilings. Additional
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and
move across portions of north Mississippi on Friday. Outside of
north Mississippi, VFR conditions will continue for the entire
forecast period. Winds will be mainly from the northeast at 5 to
10 knots.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...ARS