Forecast Discussion
107 FXUS64 KMEG 100445 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1045 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1045 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 - Dry and well above normal temperatures will be in place through Tuesday evening. - Rain chances return Tuesday evening with showers becoming more widespread after midnight. - A brief lull in precipitation will occur from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday before showers and thunderstorms return Friday, and last through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1045 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 Spring-like weather will continue across the Mid-South into the medium range. Clear skies and light winds this evening have allowed temperatures to drop into 40s across northern sections of the Mid-South. Southerly winds will pick up overnight and temperatures are expected to climb several degrees by morning. The latest hi-res models are less aggressive with fog overnight. Tuesday will be another warm day with increasing clouds. Southwest winds will be on the increase ahead of an approaching cold front with high confidence (>80%) of wind gusts greater than 25 mph along the MS River and across the Delta region. Temperatures overperformed today, so we used a blend of the NBM90 and the NBM for Tuesday. Highs are expected to reach into the lower 70s. A cold front will push through the region Tuesday night. The front will interact with moisture feeding in from northern Mexico to provide a quick shot of rain overnight into early Wednesday. Rainfall amounts are expected to average between a tenth and a half inch. The greatest likelihood (around 60%) of the half inch amounts occurring along the TN/MS state line, east of Memphis. The air mass behind the cold front will knock temps down to more normal levels with highs mainly in the 50s Wednesday and lows in the 30s Wednesday night. Dry and slightly milder conditions will prevail on Thursday as surface high pressure prevails. Rain chances will be sporadic Thursday night through Friday as a warm front lingers southwest of the region. A potent upper level system will exit the Southwest U.S. late in the week and the warm front will lift north into the Mid-South with showers and thunderstorms increasing across the area late Friday night into Saturday. Surface low pressure will track along the front and across the Mid-South during the weekend leading to a very wet period. High moisture levels (near the 90th percentile) are anticipated through this period. QPF amounts in the main ensemble systems have all been on the uptick and the NBM`s qpf amounts of 2-3 inches looks reasonable. Dry and mild conditions are expected in the wake of the weekend`s system. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 South/southwest winds will begin to pick up to 10 kts ahead of a cold front over the next few hours. As the pressure gradient tightens ahead of this front, LLWS around 35 kts is expected at JBR. Predominantly VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace. Some guidance does want to bring in a brief MVFR deck shortly after sunrise, however, confidence in guidance was not high enough to prevail in TAF. Patchy fog is also expected at both JBR/TUP for a few hours overnight, ahead of increased wind speeds. Southwest winds will begin to gust up to 25 kts across all terminals beginning around 15Z, aided by the aforementioned front. Gusts should drop out around 00Z. -SHRA and MVFR conditions are expected to begin impacting JBR/MEM around 00Z tomorrow. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1045 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 Fire weather concerns remain low this period as MinRH stays mainly above 40 percent. Wetting rain chances return Tuesday night, lasting through early Wednesday. Additional rain chances return by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...AEH