Forecast Discussion


000
FXUS64 KMEG 270428
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1128 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

.UPDATE...
See the 06z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1003 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020/

UPDATE...

Quick update. Skies have finally cleared across the Mid-South.
However, there are high level clouds funneling into northeast
Mississippi as we speak. They are associated with an upper level
low over the ArkLaMiss. Across the rest of the area, dewpoint
depressions are quite low with readings of 4 degrees or less. With
weak winds and clear skies, patchy fog is possible overnight. A
few light showers are possible near sunrise over northeast
Mississippi as the upper low begins to lift northeast and into our
area.

Made minor adjustments to temperatures, sky cover, and POPs. Also
added patchy fog to the entire area overnight. Temperatures will
fall into the lower 60s areawide with light patchy fog possible.

AC3

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020/

DISCUSSION...

Clouds have scattered out across portions of Northeast Arkansas
and will begin to scatter out across portions of Northeast
Mississippi shortly. Several of the CAM models show the rest of
the CWA scattering out around or just after sunset. Overnight, a
weak upper level low pressure system will begin to track
northeastward through the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Expect
clouds to begin to redevelop over the area and a few showers may
also develop. Chances for showers will continue into Sunday with
best chances occurring over Northeast Mississippi. Can`t rule out
an isolated thunderstorm occurring as well.

The upper low will move off into Middle Tennessee by late in the
afternoon hours of Sunday. Expect a lull in precipitation chances
to occur during the early evening hours. By midnight, a cold front
will begin to approach the Mid-South. Showers will begin to move
into Northeast Arkansas at this time. There could be a few
thunderstorms as well, but most of the precipitation will occur as
post-frontal showers or rain. The front will continue to push
through the CWA on Monday into Monday evening.

Models have come into better agreement that an upper low will
develop within the long range upper trof that will move into the
Mid-South on Tuesday. As a result, chances for showers will
continue into Tuesday across much of the CWA. Temperatures will be
cooler behind the front/upper trof with highs in the in the mid to
upper 60s.

A series of reinforcing cold fronts will move through the region
during the middle to latter part of the week. Looks like timing
will be around Wednesday Night and Thursday Night. The fronts will
come through dry. Canadian high pressure will build into the area
behind the fronts for Friday and Saturday. Expect highs in the 60s
and lows in the 40s. Would not even be surprised to see a few
readings in the upper 30s across areas near the MO/AR and KY/TN
borders.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
/06z TAFs/

Most of the early evening cloud cover has dissipated and that will
set the stage for patchy fog. Visibility will likely fluctuate at
MKL and fog may also affect JBR/TUP at times. Should dense fog
develop, LIFR ceilings are possible. However, outside of MKL,
confidence is too low to mention at any of the TAF sites. Expect
improving conditions by 15z. A few light showers are possible late
tonight and Sunday morning across northeast MS and another wave
of showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, is expected late
Sunday night into Monday morning. This will be accompanied by a
wind shift at MEM (JBR) around 12z (09z).

MJ

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$