Forecast Discussion
827 FXUS64 KMEG 091736 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1136 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1136 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 - A hard freeze (temperatures 28 degrees or less) will impact the Mid-South Monday and Tuesday mornings with blustery conditions making temperatures feel even colder. - A few flurries are possible Monday morning across Northwestern Tennessee. - Temperatures will return to near normal by mid-week with continued dry conditions. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1136 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 The upper pattern is currently undergoing significant amplification across the eastern CONUS with several embedded shortwaves. One of which is currently over the region and is responsible for clouds and cold air advection behind last night`s cold frontal passage. Therefore, temperatures will not meaningfully rebound this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 40s. Strong high pressure to our northwest is also producing a decent pressure gradient across the region, producing sustained winds in the 15-20 mph range and gusts up to 25 mph. These conditions will persist through tonight before the area of high pressure can become centered over the region Monday. Another embedded shortwave will dive south through the center of the trough axis over Lake Michigan tonight. HREF mean 1-hour QPF has begun to converge on the development of a meso-low within strong lake effect snow banding. This feature is then forecast to dive south, likely coupled to the upper dynamics of the shortwave trough as it follows a similar path tonight. This would place the Mid- South in a relatively strong area of DPVA tomorrow morning where some HREF members produce light snow showers across much of Tennessee. There are some questions regarding the quality of moisture in our area that could prohibit flakes from reaching the surface, but enough moisture should exist for some flurries Monday morning. ALthough, have refrained from including in the forecast with this package due and will wait until a clear meso-low has developed to include. Regardless of any flurries, tonight will be the first taste of arctic air this season. Lows are still expected to bottom out around 25 F tonight. Gradient winds will still be present and will also bring wind chills below 20 F, dropping to as low as 12 F across parts of the Tennessee River Valley. Highs will be in the low 40s, and depending on cloud cover, could stay in the upper 30s in some areas Monday. A similar forecast, although slightly less blustery, exists for Tuesday morning with lows in the middle to low 20s and wind chills in the upper teens. High pressure will then slide to our east as a new surface low develops across the Plains. Gradient winds will then pick up from the south in response throughout Tuesday. Sustained winds will likely be in the 20 - 25 mph range, especially in northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. As of right now, it is unlikely that neither sustained winds or gusts will breach the 25/40 mph thresholds for a wind advisory as NBM probabilities for both being at or under 30%. A warming trend will then take over to end the week as southerlies help advect warmer temperatures into the region. By Wednesday, highs will be back into the upper 60s and low 70s, gradually increasing through the end of the week as ridging builds across the central CONUS. Ensembles depict another trough axis over the Rocky Mountains by Friday, which would then exit into the Plains throughout next weekend. Compared to yesterday, model variability has decreased significantly regarding the amplitude of this system, showing a deep trough reaching the region by next Sunday. Multiple days of moisture advection off the Gulf will allow for ample moisture for precipitation with NBM guidance already painting PoPs in the 30% - 40% range next Sunday. Some thunderstorms could be possible, especially if a slow track becomes favored and stronger moisture advection is allowed to take place for longer, but this aspect of next weekend`s forecast is still too uncertain this far out to discuss any meaningful impacts at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 VFR cigs and gusty NW winds will prevail this afternoon. Skies will clear from the northwest later this afternoon and winds will diminish overnight. Would not be surprised to see a BKN deck for a couple of hours Monday morning, especially at MKL, (and maybe a flake?!) but confidence is low. Expect northwest winds to increase and become gusty once again by mid morning Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1136 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 Minimum relative humidity values will continue to fall through the next 48 hours with values bottoming out between 25% - 35% Monday and Tuesday. Winds will also remain elevated throughout this time. However, temperatures will remain seasonably cool which will help limit the overall concerns for a more typical fire threat with such a dry, windy environment. Temperatures, and moisture, will rebound starting Wednesday and will last through the end of the week, eliminating any fire weather concerns. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...SJM