Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KMEG 271955
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
255 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.DISCUSSION...

It`s another hot day across the Mid-South! Current temperatures
are in the 90s with dewpoints in the upper 70s to low 80s. Heat
indices range from 104-109 across the area. A heat advisory
remains in effect until 7pm for most of the area. In an earlier
update the advisory was expanded to include the rest of NE
Arkansas, the Bootheel and another tier of West Tennessee
counties. This was in response to a localized moisture boundary
across the northern portion of the CWA. Showers and storms have
also begun to fire up across the area this afternoon as well. Most
of the activity should dissipate by sunset or shortly thereafter.
Tonight low temperatures will be in the 70s.

Surface high pressure to our north will start to move into the
area tomorrow, resulting in the southward progression of the
surface boundary through the area. There is still some uncertainty
as to how far the boundary will go but this will result in
slightly lower dewpoints and heat indices on the backside of the
boundary on Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Don`t get too
excited, we still expect it to be hot! Went ahead and issued
another heat advisory for our southernmost tier of Mississippi
counties for Wednesday afternoon. Similar to today, wherever the
boundary ends up, we could see some localized pooling of moisture
in the vicinity of the boundary. This will result in heat indices
ranging from 105-109F. The advisory will be in effect tomorrow
from 10AM through 7PM CDT. The remainder of the workweek will be
mostly dry.

By the weekend, the upper level pattern becomes more amplified
resulting in more northwest flow. There will be a few weak
disturbances that will rotate through the upper level flow through
the weekend. This will result in some rain and storms returning to
the forecast this weekend.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF cycle

Isolated to scattered TSRA possible near all sites this afternoon.
Activity will diminish around sundown. Expect light and variable
winds overnight. Light fog is possible again at MKL and TUP
overnight.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Chester-Crockett-
     Dyer-Fayette-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Shelby-Tipton.

&&

$$