Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KMEG 300129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
829 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023

...New UPDATE...

Issued at 829 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023

A few areas of pop-up convection moved into northeast Arkansas this
evening but have now diminished as they entered an area of dry air.
The rest of the evening is expected to be rain-free resulting no
pops being added to the forecast package. Patchy fog is expected to
move into low lying river areas overnight as winds have gone calm
across much of the region. A large surface high pressure is
currently centered over the Mid-South bringing warm, dry air across
our CWA. This warm, dry air is expected to persist through mid-week.

The current forecast package is on track. No changes were needed to
be made.



Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023

Hot and dry conditions will continue across the MidSouth through next
week. Temperatures will continue to be above-normal with highs in
the 90s through the weekend.

A cold front will move across the MidSouth midweek and produce
showers and storms area-wide.


(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023

GOES Satellite imagery depicts an upper low ,now over the Northeast,
moving out of the CONUS. A stout upper level ridge, centered over
the Great Lakes region, extends into the MidSouth and dominates
the weather pattern. As a result, hot and dry conditions will
continue today into next week.

Highs will continue to be 10-15 degrees above normal with
readings in the the 90s. NBM still forecasts temperatures lower
than observed trends, therefore, temperatures were adjusted 1-2
degrees up for best fit. Lows are still expected to be in the 60s
for the next few days.

Starting next week, the aforementioned ridge will start to weaken
as the trough amplifies out west. This will decrease heights over
the region leading to cooler temperatures during the day with
highs in the upper 80s. As the ridge continues to move east, a
broad upper level trough will build into the region on Wednesday.

A cold front, ahead of the broad upper level trough, will move
through the region and introduce showers and storms into the
forecast by midweek. Pops were increased to 20 percent to show
potential for showers and thunderstorms during this period. GFS
and EURO are more congruent in showing the timing for the
greatest chance of convection occurring next Thursday into



(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023

Clear skies, light winds and a relatively dry airmass may result
in patchy fog near TUP and MKL tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected through the TAF cycle. Winds tomorrow should be from
the northeast 4-8kt.