Forecast Discussion

090
FXUS64 KMEG 291814
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1214 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1214 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

- Below-normal temperatures will persist over the next seven
 days.


- A wintry mix may emerge Monday into Tuesday, mainly for areas
north of I-40 near the KY/TN border. No significant

- Uncertainty still exists regarding a low-pressure system next
Tuesday that could bring heavy rain and a mixed precipitation
regime to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 1214 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A mix of rain and sleet was observed across a large portion of
the Mid-South this morning, mainly due to precipitation onset
coinciding with below freezing temperatures. Given frigid
temperatures aloft, a few areas may continue to experience light
sleet over the next few hours before precipitation turns to a
cold rain areawide. No sleet accumulation is anticipated. Rain
chances will slowly dissipate tonight as a cold front moves
through the area. Dry conditions resume by midday Sunday with
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 30s to upper 40s.

Another complex forecast emerges on Monday as a Gulf low tracks
over southern Mississippi and Alabama. Ample moisture will funnel
into the Mid-South by mid-morning with precipitable water values
reaching the 90th percentile. Precipitation chances will increase
at this time. One thing to watch out for is a brief period of
mixed precipitation as surface temperatures are forecast to
remain below freezing through about 10AM. Forecast soundings
depict a stout warm nose spanning from 700 - 950 mb, so anything
that does fall will melt before reaching the surface. This regime
will favor a rain / ice pellet mix with ice pellets melting as
they reach the ground. No significant impacts are anticipated
Monday morning. As temperatures warm above freezing, a changeover
to all rain is anticipated by midday.

A different story will materialize Monday night into Tuesday as
temperatures once again fall below freezing. Ample moisture will
remain at this time, keeping our precipitation chances elevated.
A changeover from rain to a wintry mix is anticipated shortly
after sunset, with areas spanning from Jonesboro, AR northeast to
Paris, TN seeing the greatest potential for wintry conditions.
The latest forecast soundings keep the aforementioned warm nose
through the overnight hours. As such, the potential for snow is
on the decline (