Forecast Discussion

609
FXUS64 KMEG 271135
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
535 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 530 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

- Dense fog will continue across most of the Mid-South through 10
  AM on Saturday.

- A strong cold front will bring gusty winds Sunday and widespread
  rainfall late Sunday into early Monday.

- A significant temperature drop is expected on Monday. The
  combination of cold air and gusty winds will drop wind chill
  temperatures into the teens and 20s each day next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1102 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Ample radiational cooling, a cold front draped to our north, and
calm winds has brought a great environment for patchy to dense
fog overnight. We are monitoring this progression closely, as
conditions (visibilities at or less than 1/4SM) may warrant a
Dense Fog Advisory, especially north of the Tennessee and
Mississippi stateline. A low stratus deck will also begin to
build in over the Mid-South overnight and linger through much of
the day Saturday. Persistent upper-level ridging will remain over
the Mississippi Valley tomorrow, bringing another day of near
record breaking high temperatures in the mid 70s.

A pattern change will occur Sunday as this ridge begins to slide
east and northwest flow begins to set in, ahead of a cold front
and an upper-level trough. Sunday morning, the pressure gradient
ahead of the aforementioned cold front will tighten and bring
gusty winds to around 35 mph. A Wind Advisory may need to be
issued in later forecast packages as current LREF probs have >70%
chance of >35 mph gusts Sunday. Widespread shower and isolated
thunderstorm chances will begin to increase Sunday afternoon with
lift from this front and increased dewpoints in the 60s. Severe
weather chances are slim to none as the latest LREF guidance has
around a 10% chance of >200 J/kg of SBCAPE and >30 kts of wind
shear.

Shower chances should begin to diminish by sunrise Monday as the
cold front pushes past the Mid-South. Precipitation should end
before freezing temperatures arrive, resulting in no mention of
wintry precipitation Monday morning. Our messaging will then
transition to brisk conditions as freezing temperatures will be
present. This, in combination with wind gusts up to 35 mph, will
result in wind chills being in the 20s and 30s. High temperatures
will only reach into the 30s along and north of I-40 and the 40s
to the south on Monday. Tuesday morning and Tuesday will be the
coldest of the next 7 day stretch with morning lows in the teens
to lower 20s and afternoon highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Wind chills Tuesday morning will be in the lower teens across the
board.

This really cold snap will be short-lived, however, as southwest
flow builds across the region by Wednesday morning. Temperatures
will moderate closer to normal with highs reaching into the mid
40s to lower 50s for Wednesday and Thursday. Long range models
are hinting at another cold air mass moving in over the Mid-South
by Friday. Stay tuned.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

LIFR conditions have developed across a large portion of the
airspace early this morning and will likely continue until
between 15 and 16Z. The one exception currently is MEM, which
remains at VFR. Nearby sites are experiencing fog, so would not
be surprised to see MEM conditions deteriorate over the next
hour. Otherwise, should slowly see improvements back to VFR for
most locations outside of TUP, which will have lingering MVFR
cigs, by the afternoon. S/SW winds continue through the TAF,
picking up to 8-9 kts this afternoon. Winds will become gusty near
the end of the current TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1102 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Fire weather danger will remain at a minimum through the weekend
as minimum relative humidity values remain above 50%. 20 ft winds
will be elevated, upwards of 20 mph, on Sunday. However, fire
weather concerns will remain low as wetting rain chances return
Sunday. Temperatures will remain above normal through Sunday,
ahead of a cold front.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MSZ001>006-
     008-009-013>017-022>024.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CMA