Forecast Discussion

093
FXUS64 KMEG 310536
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1136 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1136 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

- Driving conditions will remain hazardous through the weekend due
  to the re-freezing of melted wintry precipitation.

- Frigid temperatures and single digit to negative wind chills are
  expected across the Mid-South Saturday and Sunday mornings.

- Temperatures will warm to near normal next week with rain
  chances increasing on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

A potent upper level low is aiding in the transportation of
Arctic air into the Mid-South this weekend. By Saturday morning,
a 7mb spread will be in place across the forecast area. This,
combined with air temperatures in the single digits and teens,
will produce negative wind chills nearly areawide. Gusty winds
will prevail through Saturday evening, but the probability of
speeds exceeding Wind Advisory criteria is below 20%. Winds are
expected to gust to 30 mph through sunset. Below freezing
temperatures will continue through Sunday afternoon, effectively
putting a halt on any melting of ice and snow from the recent
winter storm. A threat of black ice will be present until
temperatures rise above freezing. Use extra caution when
navigating roads this weekend.

A return to near-normal temperatures is anticipated on Monday as
southerly winds advect warmer air into the Mid-South. By Monday
afternoon, temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s. Our next
weather system will arrive on Tuesday as a shortwave and
attendant cold front approach the region. There are medium to
high chances for rain showers Tuesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon. Given above freezing temperatures, anything that does
fall at this time will remain liquid. The highest rain totals
will occur over northeast Mississippi, where up to 0.75" is
forecast.

The end of the upcoming week will be dry with temperatures 5 to
10 degrees below normal. There is a 20% chance for additional
rain next weekend as an upper level trough develops over eastern
CONUS. However, it remains too early to tell exact impacts so
stay tuned.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Gusty north winds will persist throughout much of the period.
There is a high probability of wind gusts exceeding 20 knots
through sunset on Saturday. There is a 30 to 40% chance of a
brief period of MVFR CIGs at MEM. Confidence in MVFR CIGs remains
lower at all other sites. Winds will relax to 5 knots or less
near the end of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1136 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

A cold and dry air mass will overspread the Mid-South this
weekend, leading to frigid temperatures through Sunday. MinRH
will remain in the 45 to 60 percent range through early next
week. 20ft winds may exceed 10 kts today, but fuel moisture
remains plenty enough to preclude any fire weather threat.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049.

     Extreme Cold Warning until 9 AM CST Saturday for ARZ058.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for
     ARZ058.

MO...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MSZ001>009-014.

     Extreme Cold Warning until 9 AM CST Saturday for MSZ010>013-
     015>017-020>024.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for
     MSZ010>013-015>017-020>024.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...AC3