Forecast Discussion
176 FXUS64 KMEG 271845 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1245 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1245 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 - There is a high chance of dense freezing fog tonight into Wednesday morning, which will lead to light icing and a further increase in slippery conditions, low visibility, and strongly discouraged travel. - Prolonged extreme cold will continue to create dangerous conditions through this week, particularly for areas in North Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee still impacted by power outages. - Travel conditions will remain hazardous for several days. Subfreezing overnight temperatures will continue for many locations through next weekend, which will not help melt any snow/sleet/ice on the roads. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1245 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Moderate warm advection is occurring across the majority of the Mid-South this afternoon in response to a shortwave trough analyzed over west Texas. Airport observations have reported southwest winds between 10 and 16 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph. Temperatures have continued a steady climb since midnight across much of the area with readings in the upper 20s to the freezing mark over portions of north Mississippi. The slow thaw will continue this afternoon under abundantly sunny skies. Highs will peak around the freezing mark along and north of I-40, with low to mid 40s to the south. The forecast for tonight remains a bit uncertain as upper level southwest flow continues to advect in warmer and higher moisture air into the Mid-South. The current thinking is that winds will decouple after sundown as broad surface high pressure remains over the region. Temperatures will quickly fall in the lower 20s and teens and radiational fog will develop across a large majority of the Mid-South. With temperatures below freezing, freezing fog will be the main weather type. The uncertainty remains in how dense the fog will become. High cirrus clouds from the southwest may move into the region and offset the radiational cooling, effectively keeping freezing fog patchy and on the lighter side. NBM is not handling visibility or fog potential well at all and the HREF probs have only been increasing over the past 2 runs. We decided to go with 12Z HREF visibilities with a blend of ConsShort guidance, resulting in dense freezing fog across a big portion of west TN, southeast AR, and north MS. After close collaboration with our surrounding offices, the decision was made to hold off on products. However, confidence continues to increase in dense freezing fog and light icing is expected overnight for areas that do get dense freezing fog. In addition to the freezing fog and icing potential overnight, residual ice, snow, and sleet will refreeze again overnight as lows drop into the teens and lower 20s. Any residual water on roadways will refreeze overnight creating prime conditions for black ice. Traveling is still strongly discouraged as surface streets, neighborhoods, bridges, and overpasses will be at high risk of black ice. A special weather statement will likely be needed this evening to address this issue. Wednesday morning will start out foggy and mostly cloudy and give way to clearing skies by late morning and early afternoon. With a delay in surface heating, temperatures will top out near the freezing mark once again for areas along and north of I-40. To the south, temperatures will peak in the low to mid 40s. Additional snow/sleet/ice melting is expected, but it will still continue to be a slow process, especially for shaded areas. Temperatures will drop down well below freezing once again for Thursday morning. Thursday afternoon appears to be the warmest day in nearly a week as highs climb into the 40s for areas along and south of I-40. This warmth, however, will be short-lived as another Arctic front plunges through the region on Friday. With the frontal passage early Friday morning, LREF guidance is still pinging on 20 to 30% probabilities for a dusting of snow along and north of I-40. GFS BUFR soundings suggest a snow profile for a few hours during this timeframe as well. Nonetheless, a slight chance PoP was carried through this timeframe, although no big impacts are expected due to the amount of ice and snow that is already on the ground. Bitter Arctic cold will begin Friday night and persist into Sunday morning as temperatures drop into the single digits and wind chills dip into negative territory Saturday morning. Highs will struggle to climb out of the teens for many on Saturday. Sunday morning will see single digit temperatures once again. There is a high chance that cold weather products will be needed through this time period. LREF guidance suggests that we will finally break free of the Polar Vortex early next week as upper level shortwave ridging builds in across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Temperatures will finally climb back into the 40s for highs with lows in the 20s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 VFR continues to prevail under Arctic high pressure. Growing increasingly concerned about the potential for freezing fog overnight, especially at MEM and MKL. Crossover temps will likely be met and visibilities may be reduced to 1/2 mile or less early Wednesday morning. Guidance is in reasonably high agreement to introduce a TEMPO for FZFG at all sites except for JBR where dewpoint depressions are higher. One caveat to this is that a high cirrus deck moving over from TX may play spoiler to fog development, but it`s not enough to bank on. Once the fog clears up after sunrise, VFR conditions will return areawide with light northwest winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1245 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Wintry weather conditions will persist through this weekend. There is a high chance of freezing fog late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Another shot of Arctic air will arrive on Friday and persist through Sunday. Fire weather concerns are minimal through the period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AJC AVIATION...CAD