Forecast Discussion
975 FXUS64 KMEG 030423 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1123 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026 - Dry and pleasant weather will finish out the weekend with high temperatures in the 70s. - Monday will be the warmest day of the week with highs creeping into the low 80s. - Wetter conditions will arrive on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms forecast through Wednesday ahead of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026 Surface high pressure sits over the Mid-South this evening with northwest flow aloft thanks to upper troughing over the eastern CONUS. Clear skies, light winds, and a very dry airmass will promote excellent radiational cooling overnight. Lows will range from the upper 30s near the TN River to the upper 40s across the Delta to the southwest of Memphis. Surface high pressure will shift toward the Southeast U.S. on Sunday and Monday, and milder southwest winds will develop across the Mid-South. This will help push temps in the 70s on Sunday and around 80 by Monday as the flow aloft transitions to a milder, zonal orientation. By Tuesday, an upper trough will start digging into the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes while a cold front slides southward through the Mississippi Valley. Southerly flow ahead of the front will result in increasing humidity. There is a chance of warm air advection showers on Tuesday morning. Best rain chances on Tuesday will be north of I-40, closer to the approaching front. Severe weather chances look fairly marginal on Tuesday with the best joint probabilities of greater than 500 J/kg of SBCAPE and 30 kts of shear located across eastern Arkansas during the afternoon. However, the front will likely not arrive until the evening with marginal upper support. The front will likely stall across the Mid-South on Wednesday. Continued southerly low-level flow into the frontal zone will result in high PWs (> 99th percentile). A piece of southern stream energy that will try to phase with the upper trough across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes will provide lift across the frontal zone and result in more showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-South on Wednesday. Exactly where the heaviest rain will fall will depend on the location of the front. Most of the guidance is suggesting the I-40 corridor as the axis of heaviest rainfall with 1.5 to 3 inches expected, though the location and amounts will likely shift over the next couple of days. There is low confidence in severe weather chances on Wednesday. The area of concern will be along and south of the front, probably across east-central Arkansas and north Mississippi, where joint probabilities of greater than 500 J/kg of SBCAPE and 30 kts of shear will range from 30 to 50% Wednesday afternoon. The front will shift east of the region Wednesday night with high pressure building in for the end of the week, along with cool and dry weather. Highs will only be in the 60s on Thursday, with lows in the 40s on Thursday night. Temperatures will gradually moderate on Friday and Saturday with mostly dry weather continuing. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026 VFR conditions prevail in the wake of a cold front. Light and variable winds overnight eventually pick up to 5-10 kts from the southwest by mid morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026 Minimum relative humidities will drop near or slightly below 35% on Sunday, but fuel moisture and light 20 ft winds preclude any fire weather concerns. Humidity and rain chances will increase early next week as a cold front approaches. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...CAD