Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KMEG 121135

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
635 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Updated 12z Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 312 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020/


SKies are mostly clear across the Mid-South early this morning
with temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s. An area
of thunderstorms has been moving across portions of western
Kentucky and has begun to move into middle Tennessee. In addition,
a weak frontal boundary extends across southern Missouri through
northwest Oklahoma and into southeast New Mexico.

The frontal boundary will drop further south into the Mid-South.
This front will provide a focus for additional thunderstorm
development later today. Temperatures will be a little cooler
today with this boundary moving into the region with highs in the
upper 80s to around 90. With slightly cooler temperatures expected
today, heat index values should remain around 100 degrees this
afternoon so a Heat Advisory is not needed at this time.

The frontal boundary will continue to push south into north
Mississippi tonight with any thunderstorms that develop confined
to southern sections of the Mid-South. Temperatures will be
seasonally warm tonight with lows Monday morning in the upper 60s
to lower 70s.

By Monday, high pressure will build into the region bringing dry
weather to the Mid-South. Temperatures will be a little warmer on
Monday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat index values
should remain around 100 degrees on Monday. High pressure will
remain over the region on Tuesday bringing another day of dry
weather. Temperatures will be even warmer on Tuesday with highs in
the low to mid 90s. In addition, heat index values should exceed
105 degrees over southern and western sections of the Mid-South so
a Heat Advisory may be needed.

By Wednesday, a new cold front will move into Missouri. Some of
the thunderstorms that develop ahead of this front may reach
northern and eastern sections of the Mid-South Wednesday or
Wednesday night. The front will remain stalled out over central
Missouri on Thursday and Friday with a few thunderstorms possibly
reaching the Mid- South during the late morning or afternoon
hours both days.

By Saturday, the frontal boundary will have fallen apart leaving
the Mid-South dry. Temperatures will remain on the hot side from
Wednesday through Saturday with afternoon highs in the mid 90s.
Heat index values across the much of the Mid-South will be in the
105-110 range each day.



/12z TAFs/
Made some big changes to the 06z TAF set. Short range models
indicate TSRA not really affecting the TAF sites, so have taken
out the TEMPO group. There`s still a chance for shower development
at each TAF site so still have VCSH through the morning. TUP has
the best chance for seeing TSRA but confidence is low. The other
change made was to winds. Winds will begin to gust to 16/15kts
later this afternoon and persist through the evening. They will
quickly become calm around 01z.