Forecast Discussion
289 FXUS64 KMEG 072359 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 559 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 558 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026 - Record-challenging warmth will build into the Mid-South this week. Our warmest day will be Thursday as highs reach the upper 60s to mid 70s. - Rain chances return on Thursday and will become more widespread late Thursday night into Friday. Up to two inches of rain is expected over northeast Mississippi. - A Marginal Risk for severe storms is in place for areas along and west of the Mississippi River Thursday with a Slight risk across the majority of the Midsouth on Friday. Damaging winds are the primary concern. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1235 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026 By mid afternoon, temperatures will reach into the 60s and low 70s, dropping into the 50s tonight. Low level southerly advection will commence tonight, bringing higher quality moisture into the region and lifting the stationary north as a warm front. HREF shows a 50% chance of fog across the region late tonight, but is not expected to be as widespread as this morning. The upper pattern will amplify Thursday as an upper ridge, currently over the eastern CONUS, shifts east with large-scale troughing developing over the Rockies. A shortwave will swing east Thursday morning, developing an attendant surface low over the central Plains. This surface low will then travel northeast through the day, dragging a cold front east along with it that will eventually reach the region Thursday evening/night. Moisture return ahead of the front will bring 60+ F dew points as far north as the Missouri Bootheel by early Thursday afternoon. A weak (250 - 750 J/kg) MUCAPE axis will then develop throughout the day over the Arklatex north into Missouri and is expected to gradually shift east through Thursday night. Model guidance has been consistent regarding convection forming along and just ahead of the front in Arkansas and Missouri with disagreements in coverage. The biggest hurdle for convection will be the displacement of the upper trough to our north, limiting mid level cooling/ascent, and decreasing the overall coverage of any storms. That being said, if any sustained, deep convection is able to develop along the front, strong bulk shear values above 30 knots would allow for organization and an isolated severe wind threat. Therefore, SPC has placed portions of the region west of the Mississippi River in a Marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe winds and the potential for a brief tornado. The front will begin to stall in eastern Arkansas by Friday morning as the first shortwave flies away to the northeast. Larger scale troughing to the west is then forecast to begin moving east into the central CONUS. Southerlies will continue in the meantime, keeping the axis of 60+ F dew points over the region through Friday. By late afternoon, the main upper trough will begin to become highly positively-tilted with a large 700 mb - 250 mb jet streak extending from Texas to the Great Lakes. A surface low is expected to develop within the right entrance region of this jet over the Arklatex and move east overnight with a cold front to its south. Weak to moderate instability (500 - 1000 J/kg) is forecast to develop ahead of this trough, which would allow for the development of convection. Early morning thunderstorms could impact the magnitude and areal extent of the instability axis, but overnight theta e advection overcomes this issue in most guidance. Therefore, storms are expected at some point Friday with lower confidence in the exact timing and coverage at this time. Storm mode will be dictated by both the surface low/front and the low level wind fields. Deep layer shear will be more than sufficient for severe storms with values above 40 knots throughout all of Friday, suggesting at least a damaging wind risk. However, low level hodograph curvature remains somewhat limited and favorable SRH could be displaced from the bulk of the convection, lowering confidence in the tornado threat. Regardless, it appears likely (> 80% chance) that thunderstorms will impact the region Friday with a Slight (level 2/5) chance for damaging winds and a brief tornado or two. Another item of concern is the potential for isolated flash flooding. PWATs will be above the 95th percentile (1.5" - 1.75") Thursday and Friday. NBM guidance already has a 60%+ chance of at least an inch of rain along and south of I-40, with a 70% - 80% chance of 2" or more over northeast Mississippi. Locally higher amounts are possible within thunderstorms, which could occur in multiple rounds. As such, WPC has placed northeast Mississippi in a Slight (level 2/4) risk for flash flooding Friday. The front and surface low will exit the region by early Saturday morning, bringing showers and thunderstorms out of the forecast. Upper troughing will amplify as the main upper trough over the eastern CONUS phases with another wave diving south out of Canada. A reinforcing cold front will then pass through the region overnight Saturday with highs in the 40s and upper 30s Sunday. Ensembles are in agreement that upper troughing will remain across the eastern CONUS through the end of the period and a dry pattern with a gradual warming trend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026 A stalled front over central Mississippi will return north tonight as a warm front and into Missouri and Kentucky by midday tomorrow. Ahead of the front, before south winds pick up, there is a high chance (70-80%) of fog and stratus at TUP. There is a lower chance (40-50%) of fog at MEM and MKL. Included TEMPO groups at those two terminals. If the front surges north faster, fog will dissipate earlier than the TAF`s indicate. South winds will increase late tonight into tomorrow in response to a deepening low over the Desert Southwest and high pressure over the Appalachians. Winds tomorrow will become gusty, up to 25 kts, sustained between 10 and 15 kts. There may be a brief window of VFR cigs mid-morning at MEM before Cigs return to MVFR at all sites by midday, then continue to lower through the remainder of the TAF cycle. Rain will approach JBR around 21Z and MEM around 09/02Z. Included PROB30`s for those two terminals. JDS && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1235 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026 No fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Minimum relative humidity values will be above 30% Wednesday with light 20 ft winds. 20 ft winds will increase ahead of a surface low Thursday, but wetting rain and thunderstorm chances increase in tandem, limiting fire weather potential. Even in areas that do not see rain, moisture advection will increase minimum relative humidity values above 50% Thursday and Friday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...JDS