Forecast Discussion
126 FXUS64 KMEG 211619 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1119 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1119 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025 - Temperatures will remain cool this week with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. - The next chance for appreciable rainfall will arrive Friday into early next week as a trough moves into the region. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Monday) Issued at 1119 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025 The latest surface analysis depicts a cold front crossing north Mississippi (just north of Tupelo, MS). Ahead of this, a few showers and thunderstorms are soaking our southern tier of counties in the CWA. As the frontal boundary continues its southeast trajectory, rain chances will taper off and high pressure will prevail. This boundary brings in a reinforcement of cool, dry air. Dewpoints behind this front reside in the 30s and 40s. The combination of dry air, gusty winds from a tight gradient from the departing trough, and ongoing drought raise concerns for fire danger through tomorrow. The pressure gradient will ease, and lower the concern, but keep in mind the ongoing drought and lack of rainfall in any burning. The coolest night of the forecast will occur overnight due to strong radiational cooling. Lows will generally dip into the 40s, with urbanized areas hovering around 50 degrees and more rural areas potentially dropping into the upper 30s. With no synoptic changes through the work week, little change is anticipated with daily highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Towards the end of the week, a wet and unsettled pattern will carry into early next week. A low pressure system near the Four Corners region will spew bursts of energy and send various shortwaves towards the Mid-South. The rain from these shortwaves will not be a drought buster, but probabilities from the LREF of accumulations greater than 1" are in the medium range (50-70%). Early next week, the Mid-South will be impacted by another low pressure system. The specific impacts from this system are still uncertain at this range, but expect continuing precipitation chances and cool temperatures. DNM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025 Gusty post-frontal NW winds are expected this afternoon at the TAF sites. Winds will become light by this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1119 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025 The combination of dry air, gusty winds and ongoing drought conditions elevate concerns for fire danger through tomorrow. Minimum RH values will be 20-25%. Winds will slow by Thursday, and RH values slowly rise to near or above 30%. Wetting rain chances will increase this weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...CJC