Forecast Discussion
627 FXUS64 KMEG 241149 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 649 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 647 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 - Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected over the next 7 days, capable of producing localized heavy rainfall and flooding. - Temperatures will trend near normal with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 60s through the week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026 A very weak frontal boundary extends just north of the I- 40 corridor this evening. The latest NQA radar sweep indicates a swath of light showers and thunderstorms, remnants of a MCV from earlier this evening, along a subtle shortwave. Patchy fog with decreased visibilities is expected to form overnight amidst narrow dewpoint depressions, saturated soils, and light winds. Fog should lift shortly after sunrise. The latest surface analysis indicates a weak cold front just to our northwest, extending from northeastern Missouri through southeastern Oklahoma. Showers continue to train out ahead of this front over north central Arkansas. This front looks to stall over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel by the early morning hours, giving lift to a cluster of showers around sunrise. Otherwise, tomorrow looks relatively dry with a few diurnally driven pop-up afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Sunday`s highs will be largely in the low 80s amidst persistent cloud cover. Memorial Day, however, looks like a different story as a surface low and co-located upper-level low eject northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley from the ArkLaTex region. Forecast PWATs also begin to surge near 2", nearing the 97th percentile for this time of the year. One caveat for Monday to note, we do look to be on the north side of the aforementioned features, potentially, pushing the moisture axis mainly south of I-40. A localized flash flooding threat, especially in urban areas. Moving into Tuesday, widespread showers and thunderstorms will persist as the aforementioned front stalls, southwest flow persists aloft, and several subtle, embedded shortwaves eject over the Mid-South. This wet and unsettled pattern looks to continue through at least the end of the workweek as several shortwaves eject over the Lower Mississippi Valley and the same front continues to meander north and south. Each afternoon will feature a very low-end threat for a strong storm or two as potential breaks in the clouds could lead to daytime heating, potentially increasing instability. With several days of rainfall and continued shower and thunderstorm chances, a localized flash flood threat will also exist each day. Ensemble members and cluster analysis indicate a decent amount of discrepancy with next weekend`s overall evolution. One evolution has weak upper-level ridging moving into the region, keeping our weather pattern unsettled. While a secondary solution has drying and finally lifting us from muggy conditions with a cooler airmass. Due to this discrepancy, rain chances remain medium (30- 50%). It`ll be a nice wait and see game as the weather pattern becomes more clear in the coming days. Something to note, the latest 8-14 day temperature outlook has us below normal for temperatures moving into early June. AEH && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 647 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 The TAF period begins with mixed conditions and scattered showers (-SHRAs) as a quasi-stationary front to our west slowly traverses east, bringing scattered showers (SHRAs) and isolated thunderstorms (TSRAs) to all sites by this afternoon. Confidence is medium to high that ceilings (CIGs) will lift to VFR this afternoon following the cold front passage. As light easterly winds develop late tonight, low- level moisture will return to all sites. This is expected (medium to high confidence) to cause CIGs to deteriorate back to MVFR, and eventually IFR, overnight. There is low confidence in dense fog, but at least MVFR visibility (VSBYs) is expected to affect MKL and TUP. AC3 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1038 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026 No major fire danger concerns are expected for the foreseeable future. Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through at least the end of the workweek as a wet and unsettled pattern persists across the Mid-South. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...AC3