Forecast Discussion

600
FXUS64 KMEG 291110
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
510 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 508 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

- Patchy freezing fog is expected this morning. Driving
  conditions will remain hazardous due to freezing fog and black
  ice.

- Daytime temperatures will warm above freezing again over most of
  the Midsouth on Today. Temperatures over north Mississippi will
  warm into the mid and upper 40s.

- An Arctic cold front will pass through the Midsouth late
  Thursday night. A few snow flurries and patchy freezing drizzle
  may occur in the predawn hours Friday. Otherwise, the
  temperatures will plummet, with single digit below zero wind
  chills expected over a good portion of the Midsouth Saturday and
  Sunday mornings.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 218 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Updated to adjust the zone forecast wording to freezing fog
instead of fog due to sub freezing temperatures this morning.
Also removed the freezing rain wording to rain or snow on day 7
as confidence is too low to justify freezing rain midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Primary concern is the return of bitter cold Arctic air this
weekend, following the passage of an Arctic cold front early
Friday morning. The frontal passage will coincide with the
passage of a lead shortwave, dropping south in advance of rapidly
deepening longwave trough. This longwave trough will drop through
the mid-MS RIver Valley Friday night.

The lead shortwave may bring isolated light snow showers and
patchy freezing drizzle early Friday morning. The lack of
dendritic zone (-12 to -18C) moisture will limit snow coverage
and accumulating potential. But the lack of feeder-seeder ice
crystals from above will also allow supercooled water droplets
below 800mb to present a low end freezing drizzle chance. No
measurable icing is expected at this time, given the relatively
low column RH and progressive nature of the shortwave.

Temperatures will plunge Friday night, as the deepening upper
trough axis rotates through the Midsouth. This trough will be
quite dynamic, ingesting stratospheric potential vorticity and
dropping the tropopause to 600mb in the base of the trough.
Despite limited moisture, scattered light snow showers or
flurries may occur Friday night. The trough will continue to
deepen through Saturday night when it exits into the Atlantic,
off the Carolina coast.

A Cold Weather Watch will be issued for southern portions of the
forecast area for Friday night. This will cover areas where
subzero wind chills are expected, and will roughly extend from
Helena through Oxford and Tupelo. Further north, subzero wind
chills are likewise Friday night, but there are low probabilities
of reaching the more stringent criteria -5 and -10.

There are two good pieces of news with this Arctic event: We
expect little to no wintry precipitation, and it will be fairly
quick as Arctic plunges go. By Sunday evening, we will already be
on the back side of the Arctic pressure ridge with southerly
winds.

An upstream ridge over TX will deamplify and lift across the
Midsouth Monday into Tuesday. Medium range guidance consensus
begins to weaken toward midweek with the phasing of northern and
southern branch lows over the plains. With that said, precip
chances appear on or about Tuesday, when a frontal passage
appears most likely to occur. Mild temperatures aside, there is
too much spread in the models to rule out wintry precip, given
uncertainty of the upper pattern and strength of the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 508 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Freezing fog potential has decreased significantly since the last
TAF issuance. Recent satellite and surface observation trends
have pointed towards a lack of cooling, which will inhibit the
coverage of any freezing fog through 14z. A temporary drop into
MVFR at MKL and MEM cannot be ruled out. So, have kept TEMPO
groups to account for any remaining threat around sunrise. Any
drops into MVFR from mist can be expected to end by 14z - 15z.

Beyond 15z, the forecast is expected to be VFR. Winds will be
southerly initially, backing to a more north-northeasterly
direction through the day while remaining light. The backing is
in response to a low that will move south towards the Gulf to the
west of the region tonight. This feature will bring MVFR, and
potentially IFR, CIGs back to the region late in the TAF period.
A secondary, but less certain, threat is the potential for
freezing drizzle and flurries as the low is at its nearest. Have
introduced a PROB30 at JBR for this threat, but any mention has
been kept out of MEM, MKL, and TUP due to low confidence in the
coverage and type of precipitation, which could change through
the next few TAF cycles.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1150 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Moderate daytime humidity will prevail prior to the passage of a
strong Arctic cold front early Friday morning. Bitter cold conditions
will continue through the weekend.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Cold Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning
     for ARZ058.

MO...None.
MS...Extreme Cold Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning
     for MSZ010>013-015>017-020>024.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...JAB