Forecast Discussion


000
FXUS64 KMEG 240929
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
329 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

.DISCUSSION...

The coolest temperatures in the Midsouth are currently 39 degrees
at several locations across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri
Bootheel and Northwest Tennessee. Dew points are in the upper 30s
with neutral to weak warm advection. As a result, we do not
expect to see much, if any, additional cooling tonight. Also, as a
result, we do not expect to see any freezing or frozen
precipitation as a cutoff low tracks along the Missouri/Arkansas
and Kentucky/Tennessee state lines. Cold rain will result in
minimal accumulation. Patchy fog could result in locally
diminished visibility. Low thick clouds should keep temperatures
in check today. Highs shouldn`t be more than 4-8 degrees warmer
than we see at sunrise this morning, generally in the middle 40s.

The cutoff low will move northeast this evening and overnight,
quickly diminishing its influence on the Midsouth. Saturday should
be dry with diminishing cloud cover from West to East through the
day. Most of the Midsouth can expect to see mostly clear skies by
Saturday evening, perhaps with the exception of near the
Tennessee River.

Temperatures will trend warmer over the weekend into early next
week with mainly above freezing morning temperatures after
Saturday morning. Highs Saturday will be in the 40s with mid 40s
to low 50s Sunday.

A weak positively tilted shortwave will track out of the Plains
and across the Mississippi River on Sunday. Light rain showers
should result in around a tenth of an inch of rain. Thunderstorms
look unlikely.

Monday through Wednesday, expect low temperatures in the mid 30s
to low 40s with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s. A weak ridge
should keep us dry through at least Tuesday evening. Tuesday
night, another weak trough is expected to track across the region
resulting in another round of light to moderate rain. Once again
thunderstorms look unlikely.

After midweek, expect warming temperatures with mostly dry
conditions as a broad ridge shifts over the middle and lower
Mississippi River Valley.

30

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFs

Upper low will continue to have region under low clouds. Have LIFR
conditions at Tupelo, Memphis, and Jackson. Expect this will
continue with some variations with time, minor improvements and
some lowering of visibilities and ceilings. Not confident enough
in timing of this to put Tempo groups in most of the TAFs. Some
improvement during day on Friday, yet better improvement Friday
evening as upper low moves to the east.  TLSJr

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$