Forecast Discussion
199 FXUS64 KMEG 121608 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1108 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - Dry conditions will continue through the majority of the upcoming week. - High temperatures will trend slightly warmer, reaching the mid 80s by Wednesday. - Rain chances pick back up to 40 to 50 percent by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 A midlevel ridge currently over the ArkLaTex has begun the process of shifting eastward over the Lower MS River Valley. As it continues doing so and further amplifies through midweek, temperatures will be on a gradual warming trend to begin the work week. Afternoon highs will end up in the mid 80s by Wednesday, which is about 10 degrees above normal for mid October. This prominent ridging will also keep PoPs below 10% through the majority of the week. Despite little to no chance of precipitation, winds will be light enough with just enough moisture present to promote patchy fog development for the next several mornings, especially for more rural and low-lying areas. Moving into the weekend, the upper level pattern undergoes a fairly quick deamplification, allowing a relatively deep trough to cut through the ridging. A cold front associated with this trough will eventually swing down from the northern Plains, as early as Saturday afternoon. Current ensemble space shows that the GEFS favors a faster and shallower trough (wet and unsettled weekend but generally benign), while the ENS favors a slower and more amplified trough (better chance for more active weather late Saturday into Sunday). These two solutions pretty much balance each other out in the LREF grand ensemble, but regardless, showers and thunderstorms will be on the table at some point next weekend. Initial long range joint probabilities of CAPE > 500 J/kg and bulk shear > 30 kts are showing about a 40% chance of favorable overlap for the Mid-South next weekend, particularly Saturday evening. Still pretty far out to be narrowing down severe weather details, but this system will be something to watch over the coming days. CAD && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 VFR conditions continue, with generally light and variable winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1004 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Warm and dry weather continues through Friday. With afternoon MinRHs hovering in the 35-45% range each day and no measurable rainfall in the forecast this week, minor fire danger will be present. Winds should be light enough to mitigate any significant fire danger. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...CMA