Forecast Discussion
565 FXUS64 KMEG 161943 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 243 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - A Marginal and Slight Risk (level 1/5 and 2/5, respectively) for severe storms is in place today. Hail and damaging winds are the primary concerns. - Well above-normal temperatures will continue through Saturday. Friday will be the warmest with highs near 90 degrees. - Cool and dry air will filter into the Mid-South on Sunday. Fire weather concerns will emerge at this time and persist into Monday. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING... Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The latest satellite imagery depicts an upper level shortwave digging south into the region. As a result, storms are beginning to fire in southeast MO. These storms house healthy hail cores, characterized by 60+ dBZ to 30,000 ft. Quarter and half-dollar sized hail has been reported with these storms. This activity will continue east into northeast AR and the MO Bootheel over the next hour or two. As of 230 PM, mesoscale analysis places 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE along and west of the MS River. In addition, midlevel lapse rates are approaching 7C/km and bulk shear is around 40 kts. This parameter space will encourage hail formation in storms as they move into the forecast area. Very large hail, up to 2 inches, is not out of the question through the evening hours. Regarding tornadic potential, 0-1 km helicity values will max out at 50 m2/s2 and 0-1 km shear is less than 25 kts. Further hampering tornadic potential are LCL heights around 1000 m. The main concern through the evening will be hail and damaging winds. ANS && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 As of 1230 PM, dissipating showers continue to move across the Tennessee River. Behind this activity, clearing skies are evident on satellite with a developing cu field over southern MO. Efficient daytime heating and surface dewpoints in the low 60s will favor elevated instability this afternoon. The latest HREF places greater than 1200 J/kg of SBCAPE along and west of the MS River. This, combined with elevated surface and midlevel lapse rates, will translate to an environment conducive to rapid convective development. Hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns with any storms that develop this afternoon and evening. Given the strongly buoyant environment, hail stones may reach 2" in diameter. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a 2% tornado outlook for this afternoon. However, forecast soundings depict sub-optimal SRH and shear, thus rendering the tornado threat near zero. Outside of the severe weather threat, beneficial rainfall will accompany storms. Depending on where storms set up, rainfall totals will vary widely. Areas impacted directly by storms may see 1 - 2 inches of rain fall through this evening. Elsewhere, only a half inch of rain is anticipated. While this will not be a drought-buster, it will help alleviate a bit of the recent dry spell. Temperatures on Friday will soar into the upper 80s as a strong ridge builds into the Mid-South. There is potential for several climate sites to reach 90 degrees tomorrow. Should this occur, it will beat the average first 90 degree day of the year by about a month. Luckily, cooler temperatures are on the horizon as an upper level trough and attendant cold front impact the region on Saturday. Rain chances will increase Saturday morning as decaying convection moves into the Mid-South. Environmental destabilization will be limited by cloud cover through the afternoon. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out in the afternoon, but the severe weather window will be brief as most guidance depicts the front overtaking convection rather quickly. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5" are anticipated with this system. Much cooler and drier air will filter into the Mid-South on Sunday behind the aforementioned front. Elevated fire weather danger will exist through Monday as relative humidity falls below 30 percent and dead fuel moisture reaches 10 percent. Surface winds will remain less than 15 mph, negating the need for a Red Flag Warning. Outside of fire weather concerns, Sunday and Monday will feature near-normal temperatures with highs in the 60s and 70s. Long range guidance keeps the Mid-South in northwest flow through midweek before upper level ridging returns in the Wednesday / Thursday timeframe. A few showers may occur at this time, but there remains no major signal for appreciable rainfall through the middle of next week. ANS && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Low confidence TSRA forecast this afternoon and evening. An upper level disturbance will trigger TSRAs over the next couple of hours, however, coverage and location of storms remains uncertain. We decided to keep a larger window for PROB30 at JBR, MEM, and MKL this afternoon and evening. The coverage of TSRA this afternoon/evening will largely determine the VCTS being carried at MEM around the FedEx push tonight. VFR conditions will persist across all sites outside of TSRAs. Gusty south winds will develop tomorrow morning as a cold front slowly approaches from the west. AC3 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Fire weather concerns return on Sunday as MinRH values drop below 30% and dead fuel moisture reaches 10%. This may necessitate a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement through Monday. Increasing humidity will be in place Tuesday, returning fire weather concerns to minimal through the end of the period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...AC3