Forecast Discussion
326
FXUS64 KMEG 302351 AAA
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
651 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 650 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
- There is a low chance (less than 30 percent) of strong to
severe thunderstorms along and north of the I-40 corridor this
afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Damaging winds are
the main threat.
- There is another low chance of strong to severe thunderstorms
over northeast Mississippi tomorrow afternoon as the cold front
slowly advances southeast.
- The Mid-South will see a couple days of heat relief Wednesday
and Thursday before heat builds back in for the Fourth of July
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Currently...Showers and thunderstorms have fired up over north
Mississippi over the past hour. This activity is occurring over a
highly unstable airmass, characterized by 4000 J/kg of MUCAPE.
Weak microbursts have been noted with some of the activity, but
the overall threat has been low. The main limiting factor for
deep organized convection right now is the lack of appreciable
shear. Bulk shear remains weak around 15 knots. The more immediate
threat appears to be instances of flooding, as storms continue to
train over the same areas. The atmosphere is precipitation loaded
with areawide PWATS of 2.1 or greater, which is near the max of
climatology for this time of year.
Short term...The latest water vapor imagery depicts a longwave
trough centered over the Upper Midwest with several shortwaves
rounding the base of the trough over the Middle Mississippi
Valley. A leading, but weak, shortwave is moving into northwest
Arkansas right now and firing up another batch of storms. At the
surface, a trailing cold front is analyzed from northern Michigan
southwest through Chicago and back into Kansas City. This front
is forecast to move slowly into the Mid-South overnight and take
another 24 hours or so to push south of the region.
The aforementioned storms, currently over northwest AR, will
slowly translate east through this evening. HREF guidance shows
this activity mainly moving along and north of the I-40 corridor
through about 2 AM Tuesday morning. There is a chance (