Forecast Discussion
556 FXUS64 KMEG 221727 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1127 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 940 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 - A dry weekend is expected across the Mid-South with high temperatures in the 60s to 70s. - Showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast on Monday, lasting into Tuesday. - Much cooler temperatures round out the end of next week with highs on Thanksgiving in the 50s. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Friday) Issued at 940 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 A gloomy morning continues across the Mid-South after widespread fog impacted most of the area this morning. Weak surface boundary remains draped over the area with cloudy conditions continuing to plague the area likely through the majority of today. Those to the northwest of the area will experience cooler temperatures behind this frontal boundary, with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 60s whereas those to the southeast of the area will jump into the mid 70s again by the afternoon. Into the overnight period tonight, dew point depressions will once again be rather low with light winds. While fog will likely not be as widespread, do expect at least some patchy to locally dense fog near to after midnight. Any fog that develops will quickly mix out following sunrise, with skies slowly clearing through the day. A weak ridging pattern will slowly drift eastward into tomorrow, leaving behind another dry day to finish the weekend with high temperatures in the 60s. By Monday, an upper-level trough will move off the Rocky Mountains, ushering in our next chance for showers and thunderstorms across the area. There is pretty decent agreement within the ensemble space of the bulk of this precipitation moving through the Mid-South in the overnight period Monday into Tuesday. With this timing, instability will likely be lacking even with a favorable shear profile, leading to some uncertainty with regards to any strong to severe thunderstorms. LREF joint probabilities for conditions that would be favorable for severe weather currently are less than 20% Monday evening, and even these low probabilities only extend across north MS. These same probabilities tick upwards to about 40-50% across northeast MS on Tuesday, so more favorable conditions could arise by that point. Given the uncertainty, very low confidence in any severe weather threat at this time, but is something to keep an eye on with the upper-level setup. Total rainfall amounts will likely be in the 1 to 2 inch range across the Mid-South, so some isolated flooding in flood-prone / poorly draining areas cannot be ruled out. Any lingering showers and thunderstorms will quickly exit the area by Wednesday, leaving behind a dry weather pattern to end the holiday week. High temperatures will likely fall back into the 50s by Wednesday, with overnight lows in the 30s by Thanksgiving morning. For those with any outdoor plans for the holiday, plan for dry conditions with temperatures just a few degrees below normal. This pattern will continue into next weekend, with a high pressure in place across the Mid-South. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 Post-frontal stratus continues to bring all flight categories to terminals across the airspace. MEM and JBR are likely to remain socked in to IFR/MVFR for the rest of the day with the highest chances to return to LIFR tonight into tomorrow morning. Ridging will begin to build in and all terminals are expected to return VFR in 24 hours with northerly winds around 7kts. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 940 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 No major fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future, with minRH values remaining above 40% through at least the middle of next week. Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area Monday and into Tuesday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...DNM