Forecast Discussion
848
FXUS64 KMEG 250443
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1043 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1043 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
- A significant winter storm continues with heavy snow, sleet, and
ice accumulations expected through Sunday afternoon.
- Crippling ice accumulations are expected across portions of
Northeast Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee near the
Tennessee River, leading to weather-related power outages and
treacherous to impossible travel.
- Bitterly cold air will persist into next week, with temperatures
and wind chills dropping into the single digits and below zero
at times. This cold air is expected to persist for the next
several days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
The first wave of a significant winter storm is dying out with
the second wave not far behind. Expect yet another wave of all
winter precipitation types. Snow and sleet are favored across the
north, sleet/freezing drizzle are favored in the `transition
zone` and freezing rain to the south. This overnight period into
tomorrow morning will be where the bulk of ice accumulations
occur due to WAA in the midlevels with a 1-5 degree C warm nose.
The WAA in the midlevels is stemming from a weak, stationary
boundary over central Alabama with north Mississippi residing on
the warm side of the boundary. The 12z HREF wants to warm areas
like Tupelo and Aberdeen to 33-37 degrees, which depicts pure
liquid precipitation which is significantly skewing ice
accumulation totals from previous forecasts. While Tupelo is
32 degrees as of 10 PM, this stalled boundary should unpark
itself in the coming hours. As the front sinks, winds will
gradually back to the north/northwest and filter in colder air.
Another factor skewing ice accumulation in this area is rainfall
rates. Rapid rain rates will hinder accretion and lead to runoff.
This will be the area to watch tonight to see how warm this area
gets and how strong the warm nose can remain.
Models do still favor a narrow corridor of significant icing over
the coming hours stretching from northeast MS to the TN River
Valley. Reports from the first wave have ranged from 0.10-0.30"
of ice, with a medium chance (50-70%) of 0.25-0.75" by the end of
wintry precipitation tomorrow afternoon. Ice accumulations
greater than 0.50" are devastating to infrastructure and trees.
Travel conditions were deteriorating throughout the day today,
but will continue to worsen overnight.
The transition zone looks to still be favorable for sleet, but
there is a brief time period and favorable location for a glaze
of ice and cause additional disruptions, with low probabilities
of accumulating a 0.25". This location unfortunately coincides
with the I-40 corridor, which will make travel even more
difficult from accumulations from the first wave. The warm nose
is over performing slightly, with light freezing drizzle
threatening the entire region. Freezing rain/drizzle will be
brief in northern portions and increase in longevity and coverage
further south. Areas to the north near the KY/TN and AR/MO
borders will still favor snow during the daytime hours, but some
sleet could also mix in. Nonetheless, travel will be hazardous,
if not impossible, for at least an additional day across the
region.
Wintry precipitation is expected to come to an end tomorrow
afternoon into the early evening hours. While precipitation will
come to an end, extremely cold and brutal weather will remain
with negative wind chill values expected Monday and Tuesday
morning. Due to the snow pack, some areas may not rise above
freezing until the middle of the week. The sun may help out with
some partial melting of the snow/sleet/ice on the ground midweek,
but significant melting is not anticipated. On the bright side,
there is no precip (liquid or frozen) expected through at least
next Saturday. The 6-10 day outlook has a 90% chance of below
normal temperatures and a 60% chance of below normal
precipitation; in other words, cold and dry for the most part.
DNM
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
KNQA radar shows an expanding area of FZRAPL moving northeast
from the Arklamiss, associated with an elevated surge of warm
saturated air. Model soundings from the 03Z RAP and HRRR track
well with the 00Z TAFs with respect to timing and precip type.
Expect a transition to primarily PL toward 12Z, as the elevated
warm layer begins to lift east.
PWB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1043 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Accumulating wintry precipitation continues through late Sunday.
Very cold air is expected to persist through the week, especially
Monday and Tuesday mornings. Fire weather concerns are minimal
through the period.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday for
ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.
Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday for
MOZ113-115.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ001-007-010.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ001-007-010.
Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday for
MSZ001>017-020>024.
Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ002>006-008-009-
011>017-020>024.
TN...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>052-088-089.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>052-088-089.
Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday for
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ053>055-090>092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB
