Forecast Discussion
591 FXUS64 KMEG 061748 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1148 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1138 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025 - There is a low chance (less than 15 percent) of severe weather both Friday and Saturday afternoons. Damaging winds and hail are the main threats for both days. - A pattern change will bring the first hard freeze of the season early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1138 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025 Things are benign and unseasonably warm today due to a surface high over the OH River Valley and a warm front stalled just to our south. The pattern becomes a bit more active with an incoming cold front tomorrow. The parent low pressure system is expected to stay up toward the Great Lakes, but the trailing cold front extends all the way down to the Gulf Coast. This system is responsible for our two potential severe weather days tomorrow (Friday) and Saturday afternoons. The initial cold front is expected to arrive Friday afternoon just east of the Mississippi River. Its looking like the majority of Fridays severe weather potential will be confined to Middle Tennessee, but we could see a few stray thunderstorms materialize near the Tennessee River after 4PM Friday. Looking at some of the longer range CAMs, there are a few scenarios where the convection along the front doesnt even materialize until it crosses the Tennessee River, which would leave us pretty much dry on Friday evening. This is a very low confidence severe weather potential at this point just due to the uncertainty of when the pre-frontal convection will initialize. If we did see some stronger storms break through, modest CAPE on the order of 300 J/kg may promote some localized damaging winds and large hail. Moving into Saturday morning, this same front will stall just south of I-40. Much of Saturday morning looks dry until the stalled boundary gets a second wind and continues moving southeastward in the afternoon. Another round of convection is expected to materialize Saturday, some of which may again become strong to severe in the late afternoon to early evening. This second round of severe weather for Saturday evening is even lower confidence; convection will have a very narrow window of favorable instability and shear to tap into before exiting the area. The main threat, if anything does materialize, will be damaging winds again on Saturday afternoon. After the front clears the area on Sunday morning, a second and much stronger front will race across the region with a 1030 mb surface high in its wake. The air mass moving in behind the front originated from the Hudson Bay and is extremely cold and dry. This strong CAA will cause our first hard freeze of the season early next week. The probability of temperatures below 28F Monday morning is 80% or higher for West Tennessee, and these probabilities increase to the rest of the area on Tuesday. Frost/Freeze headlines will not be issued since the locally defined growing season is over, but its worth noting that we will have widespread frost and our first killing freeze Monday morning. Temperatures moderate back to near normal by midweek as conditions remain dry. CAD && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025 VFR conditions will continue through much of the current TAF period. Considerable uncertainty exists with SHRA near the end of the TAF period, so have only included a PROB30 for the time being. Additional mention may need to be added for tomorrow afternoon for MKL/TUP. Otherwise, southeast winds will become southwest near the end of the current period, with gusts upwards of 15 to 20 kts at times. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1138 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025 RH values will remain above 40% each day with light southerly winds. Unsettled weather will kick off Friday through Saturday with widespread wetting rain conditions are expected. Sub-freezing temperatures arrive early next week resulting in no significant fire weather concerns. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...CMA