Forecast Discussion

663
FXUS64 KMEG 241752
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1152 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1026 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

- Near-record warm temperatures are expected for Christmas Eve and
  Christmas Day, lasting through Sunday.

- A cold front will bring widespread rainfall Sunday afternoon into
  Sunday night, followed by a significant drop to below-freezing
  temperatures early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1026 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

A weak stationary front was located across Missouri and the
western Ohio Valley this morning. This front will lift north
today. A 1028 mb surface high is situated along the Gulf coast,
while an anomalous upper-level ridge is centered over the western
Gulf into the Arklatex. Increasing amounts of sunshine are
expected today, and this will lead to near-record high temperatures.
This pattern will remain in place through Saturday and perhaps even
Sunday. Periods of morning stratus are likely that should break up
each afternoon. High temperatures are expected to climb well into the
70s each day, combined with lows only in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
We used a blend of NBM and NBM75 for high temperatures through
Saturday. This will likely lead to record high temperatures each
afternoon and record high minimum temperatures each morning.

A strong cold front will push through later on Sunday. Models
have slowed this front down, which may allow us to squeak out one
more mild and mostly dry day. Severe chances with this front are
minimal (