Forecast Discussion

493
FXUS64 KMEG 271719
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1219 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

- A cold front will bring scattered light showers through this
  evening, with measurable rainfall most likely (40-60%) along and
  north of the I-40 corridor. Gusty north winds will occur behind
  the front.

- Elevated fire danger is anticipated across the entire Mid-South
  on Saturday due to very low humidity and dry fuels. A Red Flag
  Warning is in effect for north Mississippi.

- A significant warming trend will bring temperatures 10 to 15
  degrees above normal next week, with medium confidence for
  appreciable rainfall by midweek (Wednesday and Thursday).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

The latest surface analysis stretches a cold front just to the
south of the Memphis Metro. This frontal boundary will traverse
southeast through this afternoon and stretch a rather weak rain
shield following closely behind. Due to several days of persistent
dry air, and a lack of thermodynamics and kinematics, minimal
rainfall is expected. The 90th percentile is highlighting barely
exceeding wetting rain conditions (0.10") along the KY/TN border
with lesser amounts southwards.

While QPF remains unimpressive, the pressure gradient associated
with the frontal boundary and its parent low remains tight. This
will result in gusty conditions until the Mid-South is
encompassed under surface high pressure. The winds will be
enhanced in areas in closest proximity to the system, which is
primarily in northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel.
Probabilities from the NBM, however, do extend a 75% chance of
wind gusts exceeding 40 mph in Clarksdale, MS this afternoon. Hi-
resolution guidance and its ensemble members are not this excited
in this probability, but nonetheless, gusty conditions are
expected today areawide with the best chances of exceeding 40mph
gusts in the Wind Advisory area.

Once the frontal boundary clears the area, a Canadian air mass
will settle over the region. Due to this continental polar
airmass, very dry air and cooler conditions will prevail for
Saturday. Saturday morning will be very cool as lows dip into the
mid 30s and 40s. Frost/Freeze chances remain low as winds will
remain elevated enough to disrupt radiational cooling. Aside from
Saturday morning`s chill, RH values will plummet in the 20-30%
range areawide. There is even a low (20-30%) chance of RH values
falling below 20% combined with ongoing dry conditions increasing
a concern for fire weather danger. Despite 20ft winds being
questionable to exceed 15 mph, given the decimated trees from the
January ice storm, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for north MS
for Saturday. While fire danger is highest across the Red Flag
Warning area, very low humidity and drought conditions will be
present across the entire region. Use extreme caution over the
weekend to limit fire starters and/or spread and heed any burn
bans.

After Saturday, upper level ridging will begin to build and
southerly flow will return. This will help advect moisture back
to the region ever-so-slightly increasing moisture profiles on
Sunday. As southerly flow increases by Monday, above normal
temperatures will return as highs creep back into the 80s. The
upper level ridge will begin to break down by the middle of next
week ahead of another frontal boundary. There are still quite a
bit of differences amongst the models this far in advance, but
prepare for shower and thunderstorm chances to be on the rise for
the middle to end of next week.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A frontal boundary continues to traverse the airspace, with gusty
N winds upwards of 25 kts through the remainder of the day. Some -
SHRA cannot be ruled out at MEM, MKL, and JBR, so have included
PROB30s for those locations. There is currently a MVFR deck
pushing southward as well, with all TAF sites returning to VFR by
this evening with the exception of TUP that will hold off until
06Z. Winds will begin to go easterly after 12Z, slowly calming
back below 10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Light rainfall is anticipated today as a cold front passes
through the region. Wetting rain is unlikely across most of the
area with the highest chances along the KY/TN border. Very dry
air will filter in behind the front tomorrow resulting in RH
values plummeting to the 20-30% range areawide. There is even a
low (20-30%) chance of RH values falling below 20%. Low RH
combined with dry fuels does elevate fire danger. Despite 20ft
winds being questionable to exceed 15 mph, given the decimated
trees from the January ice storm, a Red Flag Warning is in effect
for north MS for Saturday.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026-028.

MO...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ002>006-
     009-011>017-020>024.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CMA