Forecast Discussion
634 FXUS64 KMEG 202332 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 632 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 - A warming trend will bring near-record high temperatures in the middle to upper 80s this weekend. - Dry weather will continue through the middle of next week as temperatures remain above normal. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Clear skies and southwest flow prevail across the region with surface high pressure currently centered to our east. A strong upper ridge also exits across the southwestern CONUS which will slowly nose its way into the region through this weekend. Southwesterly WAA at the surface and rising upper heights will promote further warming into this weekend. Temperatures are currently expected to reach into the low 80s today, rising into the middle to upper 80s Saturday and Sunday. Highs in this range this weekend have a medium to high (60% - 80%) chance of reaching 85, which would break high temperature records for Memphis and Tupelo at a minimum. A jet streak rounding the top of the ridge over the northern Plains will amplify into a shortwave trough over the Great Lakes region Sunday. A surface low will develop with an accompanying cold front that will swing south into the region by Sunday evening. Moisture pooling and some mid level cooling will create some instability along the front throughout the day, but persistent 850 - 700 mb capping is expected to prevent sustained convection throughout the region. This is supported by the NBM with PoPs below 10%, which is the preferred forecast right now. Regardless, the front will bring cooler air into the region that will drop high temperatures back into the 60s and 70s Monday and Tuesday. A gradual warming trend will take place through the middle and end of next week as another ridge builds over the western CONUS. Temperatures are currently expected to climb back into the 80s by Thursday and Friday. Once again, some high temperature records could be approached if temperatures trend higher through this weekend in future forecasts. Similarly to this upcoming Sunday, ensembles are in good agreement that another upper wave will bring a cold front through the region by the end of the week, kicking warmer temperatures down into next Saturday. Precipitation along the front cannot be ruled out, but smaller- scale features are not as well resolved yet which keeps confidence in any impacts from rain/storms low at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 VFR. SW winds will continue to diminish this evening and increase Saturday morning to 10-12 kts with gusts to around 20 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 A warming trend will continue through this weekend with minimum relative humidity values persisting between 30% and 40%. The main story will be dry and progressively warmer conditions through Sunday, though moisture transport will increase in tandem and help to mitigate fire weather concerns. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...SJM