Forecast Discussion
567 FXUS64 KMEG 040440 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1040 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1039 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026 - One more day of near-normal temperatures will be present Sunday, ahead of record-challenging warmth next workweek. High temperatures will climb into the 60s to lower 70s beginning Monday. - Our next shot at rainfall returns late Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances increase Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1039 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026 Skies have cleared resulting in a well-suited environment for at or below freezing temperatures to filter in overnight. Ample radiational cooling will further aid in temperatures rapidly falling overnight with areas along the Tennessee and Kentucky border likely seeing lows in the mid to 20s. Radiational cooling, clear skies, and calm winds has resulted in few sites with reduced visibility and patchy fog. Given the aforementioned environment, fog is likely to spread mainly over north Mississippi and along the Tennessee River. Dense fog is not expected. High pressure will continue to build over the region overnight with upper-level northwest flow staying in place. Freezing overnight temperatures will warm Sunday with afternoon highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Near-normal temperatures will not last long, however, as upper-level ridging quickly begins to build in Monday. A warming trend will begin, increasing highs Monday into the 60s. As persistent ridging remains in place Tuesday and southwest winds infiltrate very warm air in, well-above-normal temperatures will become the main weather story as highs soar into the mid 60s to lower 70s. We will be flirting with near- record breaking warmth by Thursday. Come Wednesday, a very weak cold front looks to begin pushing the Mid-South. However, the upper-level pattern is expected to overpower this cold front, keeping us here in the Mid-South warm and dry for much of Wednesday. Moving into late Wednesday and early Thursday, ensemble guidance has this weak cold front lifting over West Tennessee as a warm front. Early Thursday, the moisture profile quickly increases as forecast PWATs surge to around 1.15", nearing the 90th percentile for this time of the year. This increased moisture profile along with the upper-level pattern transitioning to southwest flow will create a great set- up for our next weather system. Ensembles and deterministic guidance continue to struggle, run-to- run, with the exact evolution of this next system. The latest consensus displays an upper-level low moving into the four corners region from the southern CONUS Thursday afternoon. At the same time, very weak trough and tandem surface low moving in from the Pacific Northwest looks to almost phase with this upper-low. This system then looks to push into the Middle Mississippi Valley as a negatively tilted trough early Friday. An attendant cold front also looks to push this system towards the Mid-South. Given how anomalously warm and humid we will be for early January, this could warrant severe weather late Thursday and into Friday. However, given how much ensembles continue to struggle, what we know this far out is, confidence in showers and thunderstorms Thursday and into Friday is increasing. Stay tuned... AEH && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026 Transient high pressure will shift across the Midsouth tonight through tomorrow night, shifting east of the Mississippi river late tomorrow. As a result, north winds will diminish, becoming light with more of an easterly component tomorrow. High clouds will return to the airspace during the afternoon hours Sunday and remain in place Sunday night. Expect calm winds Sunday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1039 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026 Minimum relative humidity values will fall to around 40% Sunday, though fire weather concerns will remain at a minimum as 20ft winds will be light. Beginning Monday, minimum relative humidity values will be >=50% as moisture increases across the Mid-South. Warm and humid conditions will prevail next workweek. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...JDS