Forecast Discussion
409
FXUS64 KMEG 251123
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
623 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
- Areas of dense fog are possible through Saturday morning,
especially along and north of I-40.
- Additional showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
through the weekend, with a low chance for a few strong storms
late Sunday.
- Conditions continue to look favorable for severe thunderstorms
on Monday, with at least a 30% chance in some locations. Please
continue to monitor the forecast over the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Showers continue across northern Mississippi and portions of
eastern Arkansas behind a line of thunderstorms that passed
through the region earlier on Friday. Trends in radar
observations indicate that showers will continue to move south
and wane in coverage through the night, ending sometime before
sunrise Saturday. Moistening of the boundary layer from Friday`s
rainfall has already pushed dewpoint depressions towards 0 F as
of the time of writing. So, with weak to non-existent surface
winds, dense fog could very well develop through this morning,
especially along and north of I-40 where these conditions are
already present. Recent HRRR runs this evening and HREF guidance
also point towards this solution. Have decided to not issue a
Dense Fog Advisory as of 04z and we will continue to monitor
trends through the night.
Zooming back out, the upper pattern is forecast to contain two
predominant features through this weekend: 1) a closed low over
southern Canada and 2) quasi-zonal, subtropical southwesterlies.
The boundary associated with the convection to our south will
stall somewhere between the Mid-South and Gulf coastline, but
will remain close enough to keep some PoPs in the forecast
Saturday and Sunday. Expect showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or
two across the southern half of the region.
Through Sunday night and into Monday, a powerful jet streak will
develop in the subtropical flow over the southwestern CONUS and
travel eastward with a surface cyclone developing in tandem over
the Plains. Moisture-rich air will surge north ahead of this
system with surface dew points reaching into the upper 60s and
low 70s through the Mid-South by late Monday morning. An EML will
be in place above this airmass, which will push instability
values to high levels (2500 - 3500 J/kg) through Monday evening.
This is concerning considering guidance continues to place
sufficient westerly bulk shear (35+ knots) in this environment
for storm organization, which has already prompted SPC to place
an Enhanced (level 3/5) Risk over the northern portions of the
region with a Slight (level 2/5) Risk as far south as Memphis.
However, widespread CINH may keep storms at bay long enough into
Monday evening to avoid a larger severe weather episode and is
currently the main aspect of the forecast keeping confidence from
being higher for our region.
A cold front will follow the severe weather Monday, pushing into
north Mississippi into Tuesday morning. Medium-range models show
that the front will push back north through Tuesday, yielding
another warm, moist boundary layer with moderate instability into
the afternoon hours. Bulk shear values have remained north of
40 knots for several cycles now, which indicates that another
round of severe weather is possible through Tuesday evening.
Upper westerlies will be zonal, eliciting a weak surface
response. So, for now, severe hazards look mostly limited to
severe wind and hail Tuesday with the possibility for a tornado
or two.
After Tuesday, the front will finally clear the region to our
south as a cold front, scouring the southern CONUS of the
tropical moisture through the end of the week. Some showers are
still possible as upper flow rides over the boundary, but
confidence begins to decrease considerably through the end of the
week and severe weather chances are negligible. Regardless, high
temperatures will fall back below 80 degrees Wednesday and likely
to remain this way through the end of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Low clouds and fog will gradually lift this morning with VFR
conditions returning to all sites by 18z. VFR conditions and
light winds will prevail thereafter with a chance of light fog
late tonight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Showers and thunderstorms Friday have brought much-needed wetting
rains to portions of the region and will serve to keep minimum
relative humidity values above 40% through the forecast period.
In conjunction with weak 20 ft winds, fire dangers are expected
to be low through the period.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ113-115.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ001>005-
007-008-012>014.
TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>055-088>092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...SJM
