Forecast Discussion
221 FXUS64 KMEG 141101 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 601 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Dry and warm conditions will return Tuesday, followed by a gradual warming trend through late week. By Friday, near record high temperatures are expected. - A passing upper level disturbance and weak surface cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, mainly to areas along and north of Interstate 40. - Following a hot and dry day on Friday, rain chances will return late Saturday, associated with the passage of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Dry conditions are anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday as upper level ridging continues to build into the Mid-South. Above normal temperatures will be in place both days as highs soar into the low and mid 80s. For context, our normal high temperatures for the middle of April are the low 70s. Our next shot at rainfall arrives Thursday as a shortwave moves over the upper Mississippi Valley. Previous forecasts had showers and thunderstorms arriving in the Mid-South late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. However, the latest guidance is featuring a later arrival time with convective activity moving into the area just after sunrise Thursday. A severe storm or two cannot be ruled out at this time, but overall confidence is low. Should storm timing continue to push later into the day, a greater severe weather threat will materialize. The LREF continues to place a 50-80% chance of overlapping severe parameters by 1PM. Damaging wind and large hail would be the primary concerns if storms linger into the afternoon hours. Negligible rainfall totals will fall through the evening hours, resulting in little to no change in the current drought conditions. Friday will likely be the hottest day of the year, thus far, as efficient upper level ridging builds into the Mid-South. The latest NBM suggests a 40-50% chance of temperatures east of the Mississippi River reaching 90 degrees. Should this occur, it will beat our average first 90 degree day by over a month. Elsewhere on Friday, a large upper level trough will form over the Rockies and deepen as it ejects east. This system will approach the Mid- South on Saturday, once again increasing rain chances. Currently, the Storm Prediction Center does not have the Mid-South outlooked for severe storms Saturday. However, a few machine learning models and ensemble suites are beginning to pick up on the potential for storms Saturday afternoon ahead of a cold front. Given anomalously warm temperatures and strong upper level forcing, severe storms will not be out of the question. It remains too early to tell specifics. A brief reprieve from above-average temperatures will arrive on Sunday as the aforementioned front exits the Mid-South. Temperatures Sunday and Monday will be in the 60s and 70s. Long- term forecasts suggest another warming trend by the middle of next week, so get out and enjoy the cooler temperatures while they last. ANS && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High confidence (>90% chance) for VFR conditions as upper-level ridging persists through the period. A tight pressure gradient will result in elevated SSW winds. Winds will increase to 14-20 kts with gusts approaching 23-30 kts at MEM, MKL, and JBR this morning, and then decrease to 8-10 kts by this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Fire weather concerns will be minimal throughout the week as MinRH remains above 30 percent. Wetting rain chances exist on Thursday for areas along and north of I-40. Additional rains are anticipated Saturday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...SJM