Forecast Discussion

726
FXUS64 KMEG 161731 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1231 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1222 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

- Isolated afternoon showers and storms will continue into
  Wednesday.

- Temperatures will return to the upper 80s and lower 90s this
  weekend.

- Drought conditions are expected to persist or worsen due to a
  lack of appreciable rainfall and prolonged heat. This also
  raises wildland fire concerns through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Monday)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

The latest HREF guidance indicates potential for isolated shower
and thunderstorm development this afternoon, mainly along the TN
River south towards the MS/AL state line. Any storm that does form
will exist in an environment not conducive for upscale growth.
Therefore, severe weather chances are limited. Instead, expect a
few spotty downpours.

An upper level blocking pattern will continue to breakdown through
Thursday as a low pressure system over the Carolinas retrogrades
towards the Mid-South. By Friday, a secondary low located over the
northern Plains will eject a shortwave towards Missouri. This
system will bring increased rain chances to the Mid-South, though
widespread rainfall is not anticipated. Elevated precipitation
chances will exist through Saturday with storm total amounts
topping out at half an inch.

The extended forecast calls for a large "bowling ball" trough
developing over central CONUS by next Tuesday. Both the GFS and
ECMWF vary in exact placement of this system, meaning next week`s
weather remains hard to pinpoint. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Ridging aloft will coincide with weak surface winds and VFR
through the next 30 hours.

Isolated SHRA/TSRA expected again today, mainly to the east of
MEM. With limited organization and coverage potential, NBM hourly
thunder probabilities remain at or below below 5 percent at
Midsouth TAF sites. Similar scenario expected for Wednesday, with
TSRA chances insufficient to warrant a PROB30 mention at this
time.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

MinRH will fall in the 30 to 40 percent range through tomorrow.
Spotty thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon, though
widespread precipitation is not anticipated. Expect wetting rain
chances to return by the end of the week.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...SJM