Forecast Discussion
983 FXUS64 KMEG 271908 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 208 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 A few more days of unseasonably warm and dry conditions before a cold front approaches the region. Showers and thunderstorms are possible beginning Wednesday evening and lingering through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 A weak shortwave has finally moved east of the Mid-South resulting in dry conditions and clearing skies areawide. A warm front will lift north across the area tomorrow sending temperatures back above climatology (around 10 degrees above normal), generally in the 80s. The return of southerly flow aloft will also result in dewpoints residing in the upper 50s to mid 60s. High pressure over the Four Corners region will slowly push across the CONUS and amplify over the Lower Mississippi Valley through the week. As a result of the intensifying ridge, temperatures will continue to stray further from normal (10-15 degrees above normal) and hang in the mid 80s. The ridge will slowly be impinged on as a deep trough ejects from the Rockies towards the Central Plains, before diving southeast towards the Mid-South. As the pressure gradient tightens ahead of this system, breezy conditions (winds around 20 mph) will be possible Tuesday afternoon in northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Precipitable water values are likely to exceed the 90th percentile, resulting in beneficial rainfall to the prolonged dry period over the last month. Probabilities for areas across the Mid-South of receiving an inch of rain or more are optimistic at 40-60% along and north of I-40 and 20-40% south. Pre-frontal showers look to inch towards the region as early as Wednesday evening and move southeast across the area through the Halloween Holiday. There will be beneficial instability and lift, that a few strong storms are possible. The limiting factor in severe weather potential will be shear present and diurnal stability trends. Stay tuned. The aforementioned front looks to stall just south of the region on Friday which will keep some showery activity around to kick off November. DNM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Light easterly surface winds will continue through tonight, before a warm front mixes north of the Midsouth Monday morning. Occasional gusts will be possible after midmorning Monday, as south-southwesterly winds off the surface mix down. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...PWB