Forecast Discussion
188 FXUS64 KMEG 131723 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1223 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 - Dry conditions are expected to continue through Friday. High temperatures will trend slightly warmer, reaching the mid 80s by Wednesday. - Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast by Saturday as a cold front approaches the area. While uncertainty remains, there is a potential for some strong thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1050 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Another beautiful day across the Mid-South under a sunny sky with temperatures spanning the upper 60s to low 70s. Mainly a persistence forecast will be in place through Friday, with high pressure lingering across the region. As the high drifts further east, expect for high temperatures to rise a few degrees by midweek into the back half of the week. Highs will generally remain in the low to mid 80s today and tomorrow, before increasing to the mid to upper 80s by Thursday and Friday. A notable pattern shift is expected next weekend, with a return of showers and thunderstorms to the area. An upper-level trough will move off of the Rockies on Friday, pushing eastward into the weekend and bringing the Mid-South our first shot at showers and thunderstorms in about a week. While confidence is high that all of the Mid-South will likely see showers and thunderstorms at some point through the weekend, confidence in timing and overall severity is still low at this point. Taking a look at ensemble guidance, LREF joint probs are favorable (around 50% to 60%) for locations west of the Mississippi River for there to be some severe weather potential. This potential will largely be dependent on the eventual path of the trough, with notable differences once guidance is broken down further. GEFS solutions favor an earlier arrival of this system, but not as deep of a trough axis across the area. In contrast, the ENS favors a slower arrival, but a deeper trough axis. GEFS favors more of a Saturday afternoon/evening timeframe with ENS favoring a Saturday evening/Sunday timeframe. Something worth mentioning and watching in the coming days, especially if you have outdoor activities this upcoming weekend. Behind this frontal boundary, dry conditions will return to the area with a notable cool down. First glance at guidance hints at high temperatures returning back to the 70s by the start of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 VFR conditions and light northeast winds continue. By sunrise Tuesday morning, northeast winds will pick up to around 10 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1050 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Dry conditions persist through Friday, with minRH values remaining in the 30% to 40% range. Light winds are expected through this timeframe, thus keeping the potential for major fire danger concerns low. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...CAD