Forecast Discussion
338 FXUS64 KMEG 021734 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1134 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1132 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 - Temperatures will warm to near normal early this week, with rain chances returning Tuesday. - Dry and below normal temperatures will return for Wednesday and Thursday. - Dry and slightly above normal temperatures are expected Friday through the weekend && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1132 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 The sun is out and temperatures are climbing across the Mid- South. All locations were above freezing at 1130 am. Temps will climb into well into the 40s and lower 50s this afternoon, and more melting will occur, though it will continue to be a slow process in areas that received a lot of sleet. Clouds will be on the increase tonight ahead of an approaching low pressure system and attendant cold front. Temps will stay mostly above freezing overnight and remain steady or warm after midnight as southerly winds increase. Rain chances will increase on Tuesday as the system acquires moisture on its eastward trek. The best chances for rain will occur along and south of I-40 with the heaviest amounts toward northeast Mississippi, where about one half inch is likely (>70% chance). Amounts trail off significantly to the north and west. Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel have less than a 25% chance of receiving a tenth of an inch. Cool high pressure will build over the region for Wednesday and Thursday sending us back below normal with highs in the 30s and 40s and lows below freezing. Thursday morning will be the coldest morning with areas north and east of a Jonesboro to Memphis to Tupelo line having a greater than 50% chance of lows in the teens. High pressure will slide east on Friday, and southerly flow will redevelop, helping temps climb back above normal with highs well into the 50s. There is a 30-40% chance of hitting 60 degrees across parts of east-central Arkansas and north Mississippi Friday afternoon. A dry cold front will push through Friday night, which will knock temperatures down closer to normal for Saturday, then warming slightly above normal for Sunday and Monday. Return flow may bring a few showers early next week, though model variance is fairly high and confidence is low right now. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 VFR conditions will continue under southwesterly flow as high pressure slides east. An approaching cold frontal boundary will deteriorate conditions to IFR with increasing confidence for LIFR conditions. The boundary will tighten the pressure gradient and LLWS around 2000ft will begin overnight between 35-40 kts. Despite the frontal boundary providing lift, instability is negligible. -RA is expected at all terminals. Once precipitation ends, IFR/LIFR conditions will prevail. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1132 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Fire weather conditions are not anticipated this week due to light winds, minimum relative humidities above 45 percent, and wet fuels. Wetting rain chances return Tuesday south of I-40. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...DNM