Forecast Discussion

696
FXUS64 KMEG 091105
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
605 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 558 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025

- Rain chances will be confined to north Mississippi Friday and
  Saturday with dry weather over the remainder of the Mid-South.

- Rain chances spread over the entire area Sunday through Tuesday
  next week as an upper low tracks across the area.

- A significant warming trend will occur by late next week. Our
  first 90 degree day is right around the corner.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025

A quiet night across the Mid-South at this hour. Temperatures are
in the low to mid 60s under mostly clear skies. Northerly winds
have kicked up in the past hour to around 8 mph. Fog has
continued to develop across the region, but remained light. This
trend should continue as surface winds promote low level mixing.
Any sites where winds stay calm could see periods of moderate to
dense fog, although the threat should remain isolated at best.

The weather pattern will remain somewhat nebulous in the short
term, as a trough slowly dives south to the Gulf Coast and cuts
off over the next 24 hours. Drier air will work its way south
across the region during this timeframe, keeping conditions
mostly dry in the Mid-South. The exception will be north
Mississippi, where moisture will linger on the north side of the
upper low.

The aforementioned upper low will stall and expand slightly over
the weekend. Saturday looks mostly dry, with just a few isolated
showers possible across north Mississippi. Rain chances will
increase on Sunday and continue through Tuesday. The wettest
period looks to be Sunday night through Monday night as a surface
low tracks through. Showers will pull away late Tuesday as the
upper low lifts northeast of the region.

A significant warmup is expected by the middle of next week as the
subtropical ridge amplifies and builds in across the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Dry and hot conditions will ensue with the
potential for our first 90 degree day of the year.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025

Low stratus continues to sink south across the airspace. Much of
the area will remain socked in with IFR/MVFR CIGs to prevail
through the morning. Northeasterly winds will pick up this
afternoon and slowly return conditions to VFR by this evening.

DNM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ004>006-
     009-014-016-017-024.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TNZ004-021-
     022-052>055-090>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...DNM