Forecast Discussion
941 FXUS64 KMEG 100105 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 705 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 704 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 - A cold front will bring rain and a few isolated thunderstorms to areas along south of the I-40 corridor through Saturday morning. - There is a low (5%) chance of a strong storm or two this afternoon and evening with damaging winds as the main threat. - Dry and seasonably cool conditions will return Sunday and persist into the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1238 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 Mainly rain-free conditions persist across the Mid-South this morning, as a prefrontal trough has pushed to the south and east of the region. A reinforcing cold front is currently analyzed along and nearly parallel to the Mississippi River. Much drier air resides behind the front, evidenced by upper 40 and lower 50 dewpoint temperatures. To the south and east of this front, a slightly unstable air mass is analyzed over north Mississippi where up to 250 J/kg of MLCAPE are on hand. The aforementioned front will eventually stall near the I- 40 corridor this afternoon in response to a weak surface low tracking northeast into north Mississippi. There is 5% chance for a strong storm or two to form this afternoon before the front and precip shield overspread the region. Damaging winds would be the main threat with a secondary threat of minor flooding. Additional rainfall totals will be confined to areas south of I-40 ranging from a tenth of an inch up to 1.5 inches. The majority of rainfall will come to an end around midnight tonight with isolated to scattered showers, drizzle, and fog persisting through late Saturday morning. Another reinforcing cold front will push through the region late Saturday night into Sunday morning and deliver some much drier and cooler air to the region. Subfreezing temperatures will return Monday morning with readings in the 20s areawide. Mainly dry and cool conditions will persist through early next week as we remain under the influence of northwest flow aloft and strong surface high pressure. A deep trough will dig into the Central CONUS by midweek and help push a cold front through the region. Although minor moisture return is expected ahead of the front, it will not be enough to bring any meaningful rainfall or wintry precipitation to the region. Below normal temperatures will ensue through late week as we remain in deep troughing aloft. LREF guidance suggests that cold temperatures will hang around through the extended forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 704 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 VFR conditions currently across the area, with light showers slowly spreading northward. Most locations will dip to MVFR overnight as showers move across MEM, MKL, and TUP. While JBR will likely remain dry, an MVFR cloud deck is expected to move in overnight into tomorrow morning and impact all TAF sites. While some periodic drops to IFR cannot be ruled out for MEM/MKL, the greatest confidence for a drop to IFR would be for TUP. N/NE winds will generally be light and variable overnight, becoming NW by 15Z and increasing in speed to around 10 kts with gusts upwards of 20 kts. Clouds will begin to clear near the end of the current TAF period, with all locations returning to VFR thereafter. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1238 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 Confidence is high for no fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Scattered light rain is expected early Saturday. Dry and seasonably cool conditions will persist Sunday through early next week as surface high pressure remains in place. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...CMA