Forecast Discussion
285 FXUS64 KMEG 141559 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1059 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1058 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 - Dry conditions are expected to continue through Friday. High temperatures will trend slightly warmer, reaching the mid 80s by Wednesday. - Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast by Saturday as a cold front approaches the area. While uncertainty remains, there is a potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Monday) Issued at 1058 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Sunny and dry conditions continue across the Mid-South with a high pressure building to the west of the area. This high pressure will slowly migrate eastward through the work-week, with southerly flow by Friday. Overall, this pattern will lead to high temperatures slowly creeping upwards through the remainder of the work week, with highs in the low to mid 80s this afternoon and increasing to the mid to upper 80s by Thursday and Friday. While patchy fog cannot be ruled out near sunrise, this should remain confined to low-lying and fog-prone areas. By Saturday, all eyes will turn to an approaching cold front along a quick-moving upper-level trough axis. We remain out of range for CAMs, so confidence in the overall forecast does remain low. While widespread showers and thunderstorms appear likely, timing and ultimate severity of the system is still in question. An earlier, daytime arrival of the system would likely lead to a higher potential for severe weather, but if the system lingers to the overnight hours ingredients may become limited. As things stand, with best severe weather probabilities would likely be for locations along and west of the Mississippi River, but this is something to keep a close eye on over the next few days. As far as total rainfall amounts go, 1" to 2" seems to be the general consensus. NBM probabilities show < 40% of exceeding 2" for the entire area currently. While some heavier downpours cannot be ruled out, the flooding threat should be limited. With this in mind, this rainfall should aid with ongoing drought conditions across the Mid-South. Do expect for the vast majority of showers and thunderstorms to exit the area by Sunday afternoon, leaving behind dry and cooler conditions. High temperatures Sunday and Monday will likely remain in the 70s. By Monday, subtle ridging will build west of the area, allowing for temperatures to slowly creep up and dry conditions to persist into the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 VFR will continue through the next 24-30 hours, under a dome of high pressure extending from TX into the lower MS River valley. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will continue to drive northeasterly surface winds. PWB && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1058 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 MinRH values will remain in the 30% to 40% range through Friday, with light winds. Showers and thunderstorms will return to the area on Saturday, bringing 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...PWB