Forecast Discussion
111 FXUS64 KMEG 230558 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1158 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1157 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 - Near-record warm temperatures are expected for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, with very mild conditions lasting through Saturday. - Periods of light showers and drizzle are anticipated through Tuesday night. - A cold front will bring widespread rainfall on Sunday, followed by a significant drop to below-freezing temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1157 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 The latest surface analysis places a 1034mb high off the Carolina and Virginia coast with a stationary front strewn from western Iowa southeast through central Illinois back into Kentucky. Return flow has strengthened across the Mid-South this evening and dewpoint temperatures have climbed into upper 50s and lower 60s. Warm air advection will continue through the overnight hours with low stratus and bouts of drizzle and light fog through daybreak Tuesday. A 588 dam upper level ridge, currently over Texas, will build north and east over the next 24 hours. There is very high confidence that anomalously warm air will blanket the region Tuesday through Saturday with mainly rain-free conditions. NBM guidance continues to come in on the lower end of guidance for highs each day, mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s, which is still 20 to 25 degrees above normal for late December. However, MOS guidance is more closely aligned with NBM 90, which yields highs in the low to mid 70s or near record maximums. Very mild low temperatures are anticipated each day, which is where a few records are at most risk of being broken. The upper level ridge will dampen this weekend in response to a phasing Arctic trough and Pacific trough over the Northern Plains. LREF guidance remains consistent with a cold front pushing down through the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday with widespread rainfall. A blast of Arctic air is looking more likely early next week as NBM high temperatures fall into the low to mid 30s early next week. This will lead to a rapid change in weather conditions. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 No significant changes from the 00z TAF issuance. WAA has taken a bit longer to shrink dewpoint depressions, so onset of DZ has continued to be delayed. MVFR/IFR ceilings continue to blanket the airspace and DZ/BR will only enhance degradation to IFR/LIFR ceilings between 12-21z. Guidance is still favoring TUP to return to VFR by the end of this cycle, with a 30% chance of a ceiling less than 3,000 ft. A southern to northern extent of improvement is expected to follow suit in subsequent cycles. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1157 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 A 20% to 40% chance of light showers or drizzle will continue through Tuesday night as a warm front lifts north. Fire danger will remain very low all week as humidity will remain elevated in the 50% to 80% range. Unseasonably warm conditions are expected each day as a strong upper level high pressure system builds over the region. A medium to high chance of widespread wetting rainfall will arrive on Sunday, followed by a blast of Arctic air early next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...DNM