Forecast Discussion


000
FXUS64 KMEG 221620
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1020 AM CST Sat Jan 22 2022

.UPDATE...
After a very cold start this morning, temperatures are steadily
warming through the 20s. Winds will remain generally light today,
gradually becoming more westerly this afternoon. With full
insolation, temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper 30s
and lower 40s this afternoon. Nil PoPs will continue this weekend.
No notable changes were made to the going forecast.

MJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM CST Sat Jan 22 2022/

DISCUSSION...

Currently...A slowly weakening arctic high pressure system is
situated directly over the Mid-South this morning with light N/NNW
winds, clear skies and temps in the teens and lower 20s.

The upper level pattern continues to support below normal
temperatures through the forecast period. A mean upper level
trough anchored over the eastern US will bring shots of cold air
into the Mid-South through at least the end of next week.

Today and tonight...High pressure ridge axis will drop south
across the region as surface winds gradually shift from the north
to the SW/WSW. Temps will gradually moderate with highs in the
upper 30s/lower 40s today and lows in the 20s tonight.

Sunday and Sunday night...A mid level trough moving quickly into
the mid MS Valley will push a weakening cold front into the Mid-
South Sunday evening. WSW winds will help warm temps into the
upper 40s/lower 50s ahead of this weak front. No sensible weather
is expected with this front just a momentary wind shift Sunday
night.

Monday...Best day of the forecast period. Southerly winds quickly
redevelop ahead of another approaching cold front. Highs will be
in the lower to mid 50s.

Monday night and Tuesday...Looking more and more like the northern
stream will win out during this period with the southern system
and its associated moisture being pushed well south of the area.
The EPS is looking very dry though the GEFS still features members
that throw moisture into the Mid-South. Decided the compromise
was to trim the NBM toward the EPS while not taking pops out
completely. Cold air will start spilling into the region on
Tuesday on brisk north winds.

Tuesday night through Friday...Arctic high pressure will prevail
through Thursday with highs in the 30s/40s and lows in the
teens/20s. Another reinforcing cold front will move through
Thursday night with more cold weather to finish the week.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFs/

VFR and light winds to prevail through the period.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$