Forecast Discussion
339 FXUS64 KMEG 040526 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1126 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 - Dry conditions and below normal temperatures will return for Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures dipping back down below freezing each morning. - Dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures are expected Friday through the weekend, which will lead to melting of residual ice, sleet, and snow. - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue into at least early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 The latest surface analysis places a cold front over Middle Tennessee southwest back into central Mississippi. Incredibly dense fog affected a large portion of the Mid-South earlier due to a combination of rainfall melting snow, ice, and sleet. However, dense fog has since exited the region as noticeably drier air has advected into the region. GOES East Nighttime Microphysics RGB channel reveals low stratus creeping south and west from Middle Tennessee and southern Kentucky. Simultaneously, high cirrus is overspreading the region from the west. Surface winds will remain elevated overnight promoting low level mixing. Nonetheless, moderate cold air advection will cause temperatures to dip below the freezing mark areawide. There is high confidence that more slick and icy roadways can be expected for Wednesday morning`s commute. High temperatures will crest above the freezing mark Wednesday afternoon before plunging back down well below freezing by Thursday morning. Slick and icy roadways are likely to be a concern again for the Thursday morning commute. Friday morning will feature another morning below freezing before a warm front lifts north during the afternoon hours. Highs will peak in the upper 50s and lower 60s. A dry Pacific-origin cold front will pass through the region Friday night and drop temperatures back down to near freezing for Saturday morning. A warming trend will begin this weekend as upper level ridging displaces troughing. This will lead to a dry and warm pattern this weekend into at least early next week. Highs will peak in the mid to upper 50s each day with temperatures above freezing each morning. This warmer pattern will lead to several consecutive days of significant melting of residual ice, sleet, and snow across the region, further improving recovery efforts across the region. LREF guidance suggests that the ridge of high pressure will dampen by mid week next week and operational models are suggesting a more active sub-tropical jet bringing increased moisture to the region from the southwest. The long range NBM brings in a low chance of rain as early as Tuesday, but it is still too early to tell due to current model disagreement. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at JBR through the TAF period, with a MVFR to IFR cloud deck spreading across the TN River Valley. MKL and TUP currently have MVFR cigs, with low cigs expected to spread to MEM over the next few hours. Highest confidence in any IFR cigs would be over TUP through the morning. Cigs will begin to scatter into the afternoon hours, with improvements areawide back to VFR by the end of the current TAF period. Northerly winds are expected through the period, generally up to around 10 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 There is a high chance that subfreezing temperatures will return for both Wednesday and Thursday mornings in wake of a cold front passage. There is high confidence in a warming trend through the weekend with no wetting rain chances over the next 5 days. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...CMA