Forecast Discussion

416
FXUS64 KMEG 270457
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1157 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

- A cold front will bring scattered light showers on Friday, with
  measurable rainfall most likely (40-60%) along and north of the
  I-40 corridor. Gusty north winds will occur behind the front.

- Elevated fire danger is anticipated across the entire Mid-South
  on Saturday due to very low humidity and dry fuels.

- A significant warming trend will bring temperatures 10 to 15
  degrees above normal next week, with medium confidence for
  critical wetting rainfall by midweek (Wednesday and Thursday).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

The latest surface analysis places a 1038mb high over
Saskatchewan, Canada, with a 1005mb low over Kansas City,
Oklahoma. An attendant elongated cold front stretches from New
York WSW through Indianapolis and back into the Oklahoma
Panhandle. Aloft, broad troughing was prevalent across the
northern CONUS with an embedded shortwave traversing the Ohio
River Valley.

A more pronounced shortwave will dive southeast from Saskatchewan
and into the Ohio Valley on Friday. Northwest flow will set up
over the Lower Mississippi Valley and help push a cold front
through the Mid-South Friday afternoon. With limited moisture
through the column, QPF remains lackluster. NBM probabilities for
1/10th of an inch are in the 40 to 60% range and focused along
and north of the I-40 corridor. The highest probability of
precipitation will occur post-frontally due to the anafrontal
structure of the boundary and occur in the evening hours on
Friday.

The main story will be strong north winds behind the front Friday
afternoon. Isobars are particularly tight near the frontal zone
with up to a 8mb gradient from northeast Arkansas to northeast
Mississippi. The highest confidence for wind advisory criteria
remains over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel, where
25 mph winds will be common and occasional gusts to 40 mph will
occur. A wind advisory has been issued.

Behind the front, polar air will settle into the region through
the weekend. Very dry air will be prevalent across the Mid-South
on Saturday, with relative humidity values falling into the upper
teens and lower 20s. With the lack of recent wetting rainfall and
the combination of low humidity and dry fuels, there will be
elevated fire danger across the entire Mid-South. Luckily, the
winds will be weakening throughout the day, negating the need for
a Red Flag Warning. Similar conditions will persist on Sunday,
with a 30% chance for another Fire Danger Statement.

The air mass will overturn quickly on Monday, as the subtropical
ridge builds north and a warm front lifts through the area. Warm
and humid weather will remain over the region all next week.
Temperatures will run 10 to 15 degrees above normal with highs in
the 80s with lows in the 60s each day. LREF guidance depicts the
subtropical ridge dampening by midweek and a frontal system
moving into the Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday into Thursday.
Although operational models differ on timing and strength of the
system, there is medium confidence that the system will deliver
wetting rainfall. Any rainfall is critical at this point as
persistent drought conditions remain over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

A cold front will drive aviation weather this issuance. As this
front descends, LLWS will impact JBR/MEM/MKL overnight. Southwest
winds will shift north/northwest following this front. An
associated tight pressure gradient will gust north/northwest
winds up to 25 kts, beginning around 12Z and extending through
the TAF period. Drizzle is expected to follow the aforementioned
front along with a swath of very light showers. Given how dry the
air column is across the Mid-South, precipitation will likely
struggle to reach the ground today. As such, confidence was only
high enough to carry PROB30s for -SHRA. VFR conditions are
expected to degrade to MVFR as this front approaches in the early
afternoon hours through the early evening hours.

AEH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

A cold front will move through the region on Friday, bringing
scattered to numerous showers. Rainfall will be light, averaging
less than one-tenth of an inch along and north of I-40. Further
south, wetting rainfall appears unlikely. Dry weather will
prevail over the weekend, with minimum relative humidity ranging
from 20 to 30 percent and elevated fire danger. Humidity will
moderate early next week, in advance of rain chances in the
middle to late part of midweek.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ009-018-026-
     028.

MO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AEH