Forecast Discussion
422
FXUS64 KMEG 182312
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
612 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 600 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025
- Hot and humid conditions will continue today. Heat indices will range
between 105 and 109 this afternoon. Very warm and humid
conditions will continue through the overnight hours.
- Triple digit heat indices will persist into this weekend, though scattered
showers and thunderstorms will provide localized relief from
the oppressive heat.
- The heat will return and intensify next workweek, with dangerous
heat indices in excess of 110 expected over much of the Mid-south
by Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025
Another hot and humid day is apparent at this hour with current
temperatures in the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the triple
digits. Oppressive heat with heat indices in excess of 105F will
continue through the early evening hours today. As a result a Heat
Advisory remains in effect for much of the Mid-South until 9PM
today. Please be sure to practice heat safety by limiting outdoor
activity and staying hydrated. As far as heat headlines go heading
into the weekend, scattered showers and thunderstorms in
combination with increased cloud cover will provide brief
localized relief from oppressive heat. Though areas west of the
Mississippi River will see heat indices in excess of 105F
tomorrow. As such a Heat Advisory has been issued for counties
west of the Mississippi River.
A stationary front is currently extending from southern Missouri on
through the lower Ohio River valley, bordering the Tennessee and
Kentucky stateline. In conjunction, a weak shortwave is stationed
over the Missouri Bootheel. As we head further into the afternoon
hours, this shortwave will amplify slightly into the Mid-South
and give lift to shower and mostly single cellular thunderstorms.
These thunderstorms will be working with a decent instability
field with forecast soundings hinting at upwards of 2500 J/kg of
SBCAPE and PWATs up to 2.3", nearing the 99th percentile for this
time of year. Some limiting factors this afternoon will be
effective shear less than 20 kts and mid-level lapse rates at
around 5.5 C/km. Much compared to yesterday, we are looking at a
microburst environment that could cause nuisance flooding and a
few sub-severe to severe wind gusts mainly along and north of
I-40. Severe chances will taper off by the late evening as
precipitation chances dwindle. Shower and thunderstorm chances
also exist over areas south of I-40 as Gulf moisture is present
this afternoon, though, severe weather is not expected in these
areas.
As we edge into the weekend, wet and unsettled conditions will
continue as Gulf air and the aforementioned front dominate the
weather pattern. Be sure to keep those umbrellas handy this weekend,
especially in areas east of the Mississippi River where Gulf
moisture will be more apparent. Nuisance flooding due to
previously saturated soils will really be the only concern this
weekend, though shower and thunderstorm chances are nothing to
write home as rainfall amounts will be generally less than an
inch.
By the start of next workweek, a 594dam ridge will build over the
region and bring oppressive heat back into the forecast. Heat
Headlines will likely be needed across much if not all of the Mid-
South beginning Monday as heat indices soar back into the triple
digits. As we move through the week, the aforementioned ridge
will continue to build and amplify across the region, raising
temperatures even further with some areas even reaching into the
triple digits by Wednesday. Something to note, as the ridge
builds, dry air will also begin to build across much of the area,
decreasing dewpoints slightly. Though, with dewpoints still in the
mid 70s and temperatures in the upper 90s, the heat will be
oppressive. Sadly, hot and humid conditions will be here to stay
as the latest CPC 8-10 temperature outlook has us above normal to
round out the month of July.
AEH
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025
Typical summer conditions this evening and again tomorrow. VFR
outside of any thunderstorm activity. South to southwest winds
around 5kt during nighttime hours, 5-10kt during the day. Highest
confidence for thunderstorms tomorrow is at TUP, lowest at JBR.
As such, will carry PROB30`s at MKL and MEM, and TEMPO at TUP.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025
Fire weather danger will remain at a minimum for the foreseeable
future as minimum relative humidity values remain above 50%. Hot
and humid conditions will also continue through the next seven
days or so. Wetting rain chances will continue through much of the
weekend as Gulf moisture remains in place.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-
035-036-048-049-058.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.
MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-007-008-
010>012-020.
TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>003-019-020-
048>051-088-089.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...JDS
