Forecast Discussion
755 FXUS64 KMEG 081830 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1230 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1229 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026 - Near-record warmth will build into the Mid-South today as highs reach the upper 60s to mid 70s. - A cold front will bring multiple rounds of strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall starting Thursday evening, continuing through early Saturday morning. - A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms is in place today and a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) is in place tomorrow. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are the primary threats, quick spin-up tornadoes are a secondary threat. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1229 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026 An active pattern is currently present across the CONUS this morning with a deep shortwave trough traversing the plains along the eastern periphery of larger-scale troughing. Through today, the shortwave will continue moving northeast, dragging a deepening surface low along with it. Across the Mid-South, southerly advection is already bringing higher dew points in from the south, which will continue through tonight. At the same time, a cold front will develop and swing into the region between 00z and 06z. Showers are expected to develop ahead of the front this afternoon and evening, producing scattered rain showers. After sunset, weather is forecast to become increasingly hazardous as a front enters the region from the west. Instability that develops this afternoon will struggle to stabilize as theta e advection remains. The front will interact with this unstable air mass with most CAMs developing a broken line of thunderstorms by 03z across eastern Arkansas. The coverage of thunderstorms is still uncertain as model guidance remains in flux regarding the magnitude and quality of instability, but at least a few thunderstorms are expected tonight with the front. HREF mean SBCAPE values exceed 500 J/kg ahead of the front, with potentially higher values if surface temperatures are able to remain elevated. Bulk shear will also be sufficient to support storm organization with values above 40 knots. These points all lead to a conditional severe wind threat, contingent on the coverage and depth of convection. Although tonight`s forecast is conditional, there is the potential for this event to over perform the median forecast. Models have trended towards a stronger low level jet in the last several forecast cycles and now have large, clockwise turning hodographs, particularly across eastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and portions of West Tennessee. These wind profiles yield ESRH above 250 m2/s2, supportive of strong tornadoes, and definitely supportive of brief spin ups despite lower instability. If higher instability is able to be realized and convective coverage is larger than expected, a higher tornado threat could materialize in the aforementioned regions tonight after 03z through 12z Friday. At the same time across Mississippi, southerlies are forecast to continue. Some CAMs have begun to develop a line of convection after 06z along a confluence/converge zone across central Mississippi that begins to propagate northeast into our region. Instability will be largely elevated with MUCAPE values between 250 - 500 J/kg. Therefore, the severe threat will be limited, but enough deep layer shear will be present for some storm organization and the potential for a few severe wind gusts through tonight. Taking a step back, the front is now forecast to make through the majority of the region tomorrow; a sharp departure from yesterday`s guidance which kept it back along the Mississippi River for the majority of the day. Therefore, instability could be driven further south through the day and ongoing convection will contaminate any attempts at recovery. The thinking yesterday was that a frontal low would develop in eastern Texas underneath the right entrance region of the upper jet streak. With the changes that have happened today, the upper jet streak may not be properly oriented above the baroclinic zone along the cold front, but rather behind it, delaying and weakening surface cyclogenesis. If this were to happen, instability may not recover and convection would struggle to develop, especially in areas north of Mississippi. CAMs and short term guidance have thus struggled to come to a solid consensus in response to these changes and offer multiple convective scenarios. The most popular solution is having the front leave the region to the east sometime late tomorrow morning with little to no recovery. But some models, such as the RRFS, HRW FV3, and HRW ARW allow for enough recovery behind the front for a second round of convection as the upper jet streak reaches the region. In the second scenario, enough instability and shear would be available to produce severe wind and the threat of a brief tornado in northern Mississippi, in line with the current SPC outlook. Alongside the severe weather, NAEFS PWAT and water vapor transport values are above the 95th percentile starting late tonight and lasting through Saturday. This raises concerns about flash flooding potential, especially with the potential for multiple rounds of training thunderstorms in northern Mississippi. However, current flash flood guidance values are above 3" across much of Mississippi and current CAM/NBM guidance struggles to bring 24 hour QPF values above 2", let alone 3", across a large enough area to constitute a flash flood watch. There could still be some flash flooding possible in northeast Mississippi from training thunderstorms and steady rain through Saturday morning. Will reevaluate for a flash flood watch again tonight once guidance comes into better agreement regarding the coverage of higher QPF. Rain and thunderstorms will finally leave the region late Saturday morning as a secondary low drags the cold front to our east. Lows Sunday morning are expected to drop into the low to mid 30s with highs in the 40s and 50s. The upper pattern will then bring northwesterly flow across the eastern CONUS into next week, effectively drying out the forecast. Temperatures will warm slightly Monday and Tuesday before a cold front enters the region Wednesday night into Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026 Low CIGs with scattered showers across the region this afternoon. LLWS and southerly SFC gusts of 20-30KT are expected for an extended period this evening ahead of a surface cold front. The front will traverse all TAF sites tonight into tomorrow morning. Heavier rain with IFR CIG/VIS likely along the frontal passage overnight. PROB30 for TS tonight at TUP and JBR with a lower- probability (