Forecast Discussion
362 FXUS64 KMEG 031803 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 103 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 - Abnormally warm temperatures (around 15 degrees above normal) will come to an end today, as a cold front crosses the region on Saturday. - Rain chances will increase tonight through Saturday evening. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly across north Mississippi. Damaging wind is the primary hazard. - Generally benign weather is anticipated Sunday through the end of next week. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal early in the week, gradually warming through the work week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 A slowly thinning stratus deck encompasses most of the region as of 10 AM with only the Tennessee River Valley and northeast Mississippi with mostly clear skies. Temperatures at this hour are in the 70s area wide. If this cloud deck persists much into the afternoon, this will limit temperatures climbing into the upper 80s and will squash the chances at Memphis and Tupelo of setting any new temperature records. The 12z RAOB sounding from OHX indicates dry air and a strong capping inversion between 500- 300mb aloft with zonal flow. This should prohibit any shower or thunderstorm chances through the afternoon. After sunset tonight into the overnight period is the most likely timing for beneficial rainfall to begin as a cold front will begin traversing over Arkansas. The 12Z CAM runs are in fairly good agreement with a line of convection approaching our CWA between 3- 4 AM tonight. The line itself will slowly cross the region throughout the day Saturday with a projected storm motion of southwest to northeast. There is enough instability for general/weak thunderstorms in northeast Arkansas, the Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee; but beneficial widespread rain showers are expected for this area. A higher signal for any strong to severe thunderstorms is across north Mississippi. Aided by diurnal heating, and low-level convergence increasing near the front, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. Plentiful SBCAPE (between 1000- 1500 J/kg) and decent 0-6 km shear around 30-35kts does warrant at least a marginal damaging wind threat. 0-1 and 0-3km SRH remains below 150 m^2/s^2, which is not conducive for a tornadic environment. Surface lapse rates look to hang around 7C/km, and the FZL is projected to be around 11,000ft from model soundings, which would support hail size up to quarters. The damaging wind gust potential does appear to be the primary threat at this time, and will be aided by afternoon heating resulting in a severe weather window opening as early as noon and closing around 8 PM. The most likely timing is between 1 PM and 7 PM. A decent rain shield will follow closely behind the front and showers will end from northwest to southeast with dry conditions returning prior to sunrise Sunday morning. Areas along and west of the Mississippi River have around a 40% or higher chance of receiving at least 1" of rain by Sunday morning. The I-55 corridor is least favored for receiving at least 1" of rain with a low to medium chance (25-45%). South of I-22 is when the probabilities creep back up near 40% and near 50% in extreme southern Monroe County MS. Nonetheless, high confidence exists in the Mid-South receiving beneficial rainfall on Saturday. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the frontal passage with highs generally in the 60s. Seasonal trends will return with cool mornings with lows in the upper 30s and 40s and warming into the 60s and low 70s for the afternoon. The NBM has a known cool bias with dry airmasses, so it would not be shocking to see temperatures trend warmer than what is currently forecast. Benign weather is likely to persist through the workweek under surface high pressure and weak northwest flow aloft. The GFS and Canadian models are hinting at a weak surge of moisture for Tuesday morning near the Bootheel that could introduce some low PoPs, but given the very dry column of air that the ECMWF seems to be catching onto, those two results seem unlikely. If the solution of the ECMWF holds true, early Sunday will be our last chance of rainfall through the work week. Southerly flow will return on Wednesday advecting warmer and moister air to the region. Guidance suggests that by midweek, a deepening low will begin to develop off the coast of California sending a series of shortwaves across the CONUS with the first wave coming close to the region by late week into the weekend. This is a week away and subject to change, but expect a dry work week with the potential for a wet weekend. DNM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 Gusty south winds, a scattered to broken VFR stratus deck, and isolated -SHRAs will persist through late afternoon at MEM, MKL, JBR, and TUP. Winds will subside to less than 10 knots tonight. -SHRAs and -TSRAs will develop ahead of the front Saturday morning and become more widespread throughout the day with the frontal passage. There is high confidence in MVFR CIGs along and ahead of the front tomorrow morning with medium confidence of IFR CIGs and VSBYs prevailing along and behind the front. Medium confidence in TSRA remains along and just ahead of the front early morning through early afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 Rain chances will increase tonight through Saturday afternoon as a cold front moves across the area. Confidence is very high for wetting rain conditions being exceeded areawide. Rain will taper off by Saturday night with dry and cooler weather Sunday through the middle of next week. The dry air mass next week will support minimum relative humidity in the 25-35% range Monday through Wednesday across much of the Mid-South. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...AC3