Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS64 KMEG 272339 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 539 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020 .UPDATE... Aviation Update below && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 256 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020/ DISCUSSION... A few rain showers are ongoing across portions of North Mississippi as well as Southwest Tennessee. We can`t rule out a lightning strike or two this afternoon especially in the southern tier of Midsouth counties. Rainfall totals will be minimal as Showers/storms move quickly to the East...probably less than one tenth of an inch. The threat of thunderstorms will diminish after sunset and showers should quickly move into Alabama. A weak ridge will build over the Midsouth tonight in response to a deepening cutoff low over the Southwestern US and Southern Plains. As a result, expect a clear and dry first half of the weekend. High temperatures Saturday will range from the low 50s to low 60s. Saturday night, the cutoff low will track across the Texas panhandle and Oklahoma, approaching West Arkansas by sunrise. Conditions across the Midsouth will deteriorate quickly Saturday night, with rain across portions of East Arkansas and North Mississippi by sunrise. Sunday morning lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 50s. The cutoff low is expected to track across Little Rock and Memphis, then along the Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee State lines while developing into an open wave. An associated cold front will sweep across the Midsouth late Sunday. Rain is likely area wide Sunday into Sunday night, with most of the area getting accumulations between 1 and 1.5 inches. Guidance is in fairly good agreement up until this point in the forecast. Late Sunday night as the colder air arrives, portions of West Tennessee could see a brief change over to wintry precipitation. However, as is common in the Midsouth, the moisture could exit just before the cold air arrives resulting in just cold rain followed by dry conditions at sunrise. The window for any wintry precipitation would likely be 3-6am, and most likely near the Tennessee River. Monday and Tuesday will be bitterly cold as a narrow ridge builds in behind the exiting longwave trough. Monday will begin near to slightly above freezing, but remain in the 30s all day across most of the Midsouth. Strong North wind will make it feel even colder, but also help to dry roadways before sub-freezing temperatures invade all of the Midsouth Monday night. Temperatures are expected to fall into the mid 20s area wide Tuesday morning. Wind chills will be in the teens across most of the Midsouth. Wednesday through the remainder of the work, guidance is in poor to very poor agreement. It looks likely that we will remain in an active and cool pattern, but the chance, timing, and type of any precipitation in highly questionable. Will focus more on the short term system and cold temperatures for now and advertise generic low chance pops and mostly cold rain Wednesday through Friday. 30 && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF With the showers moving across northern MS TUP will remain MVFR with intermittent IFR through late tomorrow morning. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail. Winds NNE 5-10kts through most of the period for all TAF sites. There is a possibility of some gusty winds overnight but confidence was low so it was not added into this TAF cycle. Will continue to watch trends and adjust accordingly. Towards the end of the TAF cycle winds NE 3-5kts. SMW && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$