Forecast Discussion
704
FXUS64 KMEG 070528
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1128 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1128 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026
- Dense fog is expected tonight across much of north Mississippi
and portions of west Tennessee.
- Record-challenging warmth will build into the Mid-South this
week. Our warmest day will be Thursday as highs reach the upper
60s to mid 70s.
- Rain chances return on Thursday and will become more widespread
late Thursday night into Friday.
- A Marginal Risk for severe storms is in place for areas along
and west of the Mississippi River Thursday with a Slight risk
across the majority of the Midsouth on Friday. Damaging winds
are the primary concern.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026
A weak cold front is currently losing its momentum as it
approaches east Arkansas. The front will continue to weaken as
it moves into central Mississippi and Alabama tomorrow. On
average, high temperatures will be 2-4 degrees cooler than today
behind the front, but still around 15 degrees above normal.
Expect highs in the 60s. The front will quickly return northward
as a warm front Thursday allowing temperatures to surge once
again. Highs will be back in the upper 60s to middle 70s.
Southerly winds will increase through the day tomorrow adding
even more moisture to an already abnormally moist airmass. Wind
speeds will be between 10 and 20 mph. As a result, PW`s will
exceed the 99th percentile by Thursday afternoon, likely
exceeding 1.5 inches across portions of the Midsouth. Guidance
rainfall totals Thursday through Friday have increased
considerably over the past few model runs, ranging between
0.75 and 1.0 inches just 24-36 hours ago to now between 1.7 and
2.4 inches. Luckily, it has been relatively dry lately, so
flooding shouldn`t be a major or widespread problem. Rain showers
will begin around midday Thursday across most of the area,
spreading from west to east. Thunderstorms do not look likely
during most of the day, but should become more likely during the
evening as a 50-55 kt LLJ shifts over the area. Any
thunderstorms should be elevated, posing a primary risk of
damaging wind.
Midlevel flow will become increasingly more southwesterly
Thursday as negatively tilted shortwave shifts out of the
Rockies. An attendant 995 mb surface low will track into and
across northern Missouri Thursday afternoon.
The threat for severe thunderstorms will continue Friday. An even
more amplified, but neutrally tilted shortwave will move into the
Southern Plains. A weaker, but deepening surface low will take a
more southerly path that the previous low, tracking near or just
north of Memphis after sunset. A cold front will move across the
Midsouth during the night, bringing an end to the heaviest
rainfall and the threat of severe thunderstorms.
Both the Thursday and Friday systems will feature high shear and
low to minimal instability, which is typical for this time of
year in the Midsouth. CAPE should be below 600 J/KG (likely well
below 600) but surface to 500 mb shear could reach 65-75 kts,
especially Friday afternoon across northeast Arkansas into the
Missouri Bootheel. The GFS even has bulk shear 80 kts late
Friday. Storm mode should be linear both days. Damaging wind
will be the greatest threat but given the amount of shear a QCLS
tornado cannot be ruled out Friday. Flooding will be a secondary
threat, especially late Friday as rain continues to accumulate.
Post frontal showers are expected to linger through midday
Saturday but thunderstorms are unlikely Saturday. Cooler air will
return to the Midsouth. Highs Saturday will be in the 50s with
temperatures in the low to middle 30s Sunday morning. Monday and
Tuesday will be clear and cold featuring lows in the mid 20 to
mid 30s. Highs will be in the 40s Monday, and slightly warmer
Tuesday, in the low 50s.
JDS
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026
No big changes planned for the 06Z TAF. The main story is still
dense fog at TUP (and the rest of north Mississippi) but VFR
elsewhere. There is a bit more uncertainty with this issuance as
to whether the axis of fog will creep up to MKL, but the general
model consensus was still not to include fog anywhere but TUP.
MKL will definitely be the one to watch for near-term amendments
if that fog bank meanders any farther north. Light and variable
winds continue with a cirrus shield.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1128 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026
Minimum relative humidity values will be 55% or higher Wednesday
and continue to rise to over 80% through the end of the work
week, keeping fire weather concerns to a minimum. Gusty 20ft
winds are anticipated on Thursday, with a high confidence (over
90%) of wetting rain Thursday and Friday. Showers and
thunderstorms will persist through Friday.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ002>006-
008>017-020>024.
TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for TNZ091-092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...CAD
