Forecast Discussion

005
FXUS64 KMEG 180455
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1155 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

- A cold front will bring increased rain chances Saturday with
  showers and a few thunderstorms anticipated throughout the day.

- Near-normal temperatures return behind this front Sunday and
  Monday. A warming trend will increase temperatures into the mid
  80s by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

After a near record high temperature day, an anomalously warm
April night is on display with current temperatures, as of 10 PM
CDT, in the 70s with gusty southwest winds at the surface. While
we`re pretty calm here in the Mid-South, to our northwest, a line
of severe thunderstorms extends from Chicago, IL through Oklahoma
City, OK ahead of a closed upper low over southern Manitoba,
Canada. A cold front is extending from this closed low with the
aforementioned severe storms out in front of it. As we head into
the overnight hours, showers will begin creeping into our area as
this line continues to push southeast. Instability will largely
remain displaced to our northwest resulting in this line greatly
decaying as it moves into our area. Though a few embedded rumbles
of thunder in the main line of showers can`t be ruled out through
mid-morning.

As we head into the late morning and afternoon hours, when peak
heating occurs, exact details on how this line performs becomes a
little more fuzzy as forecast soundings indicate a very skinny
CAPE profile with around 40 kts of effective shear and forecast
mid-level lapse rates around 6.5 C/km. If CAPE and parameters are
able to be realized, a few strong to severe thunderstorms could
materialize mainly over north Mississippi with predominately
gusty winds and small hail. Though this window will be short as
once the cold front pushes across the area, by the mid to late
afternoon, instability and our dewpoints take a dive. Showers
will continue to push southeast across the Mid-South through the
evening hours. Storm total rainfall amounts will be on the lower
end with this system equating up to one inch, highest amounts
over northeast Mississippi. Unfortunately tomorrow`s rainfall
will have little to no positive impact on ongoing drought
conditions.

A cool and dry airmass will filter in behind this cold front
bringing slightly below normal temperatures in the upper 60s to
lower 70s for Sunday and chilly mornings both into Monday with
lows in the 40s. Though with drier air, comes decreased dewpoints
and lower relative humidity, around 25-30%. Fire weather danger
will become a concern Sunday through early week as forecast ten
hour dead fuel moisture meanders around 10%. Red Flag warnings
are not anticipated as winds behind the aforementioned front will
be light. Though Rangeland Fire Danger statements will likely be
warranted. By Tuesday, dewpoints will begin to increase as return
flow and increased southwest winds filter in warmer air and weak
upper-level ridging begins to build over the Middle Mississippi
Valley. A warming trend will begin, edging temperatures into the
mid 80s by mid to late week. Looking ahead, ensembles are hinting
at a shift in the upper-level pattern to more wet and unsettled
by next Friday and into the weekend, however, we are a little too
far out to bank on this evolution.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Timing of expected rainfall remains largely unchanged. Decaying
linear TSRA segments will move into northeast AR prior to
sunrise. To the southeast, MEM and MKL, HRRR soundings depict
modest convective instability. There is a potential for an uptick
of TS late in the morning and early afternoon, mainly southeast
of MEM  in the early afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Fire weather danger returns on Sunday and into early week as
minimum relative humidity values drop to 25-30%. 20ft winds at
this time will be light, but dead fuel moisture near 10 percent
may necessitate a Rangeland Fire Danger Statements. Fire weather
potential will begin to decrease by Tuesday into Wednesday as
dewpoints increase.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...PWB