Forecast Discussion
546 FXUS64 KMEG 121119 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 519 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1034 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 - Cool and dry weather is expected to persist through Tuesday. - There is a medium chance (40-70 percent) of rain showers on Wednesday, with the best chance for locations east of the Mississippi River. - Near to below normal temperatures are expected for the second half of this week and into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1034 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 A clear and chilly overnight period is ongoing, with temperatures in the upper 20s to 30s across the Mid-South. There are largely no changes to the forecast for the start of the week, with high pressure in place over the area. High temperatures will warm a few degrees each day, with highs reaching near 50 on Monday and the mid to upper 50s by Tuesday. Some high temperatures may even creep into the 60s west of the MS River by Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday, an upper-level trough will be descending across the eastern half of the U.S. with an associated cold front bringing our next chance of precipitation to the Mid-South. PoPs have continued to increase over the past couple of model runs, with PoPs in the 40% to 70% range for locations east of the MS River. Guidance suggests that the majority of any precipitation would move out by Wednesday evening, thus only rain is expected at this time. Total QPF amounts will likely remain less than a quarter of an inch. It is worth noting that the typical "will the dry air move in before the cold air gets here scenario" could be in play for Wednesday night. As mentioned above, the majority of guidance has precipitation moving out before temperatures plummet, leading to a rain-only forecast. However, if any of this precipitation were to linger, some flurries could mix in as the precipitation exits the area. Overall, confidence is very low that this would occur. Typically speaking, this scenario does not work in favor of those hoping for snowfall and NBM probabilities keep any dusting probabilities to less than 20%. The one outlier to this solution is the GEFS, which has these probabilities closer to 30 to 40% along the TN River. In summary, while we can`t rule out a few flurries near the TN River as the system is moving out, no impacts are expected and once again the chance for this appears to be very low. A much colder air mass will move in behind the cold front on Thursday, with highs likely struggling to rise out of the 30s. By Friday, we may get some brief respite with temperatures warming back into the 40s to low 50s before another low pressure system is set to move in over the weekend. There is still uncertainty with this system, so confidence is low in forecast outcomes by next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 512 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 VFR and southwesterly winds less than 10KT will prevail through the next 24 hours. The low level pressure gradient will tighten some overnight, with a few gusts possible an hour or two after sunrise Tuesday. PWB && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1034 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 MinRH values will largely remain below 40% this week, with the exception of Wednesday when light showers will move through the area. 20ft winds may approach 10 mph at times across NE AR and the MO Bootheel, so some borderline fire danger concerns should be noted especially for Monday and Tuesday afternoons. If dry conditions were to fall lower than guidance suggests, a RFD could be needed for these locations. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...PWB