Forecast Discussion

702
FXUS64 KMEG 012337
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
637 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- Strong southwest winds are expected on Thursday, particularly
  along and west of the Mississippi River, which will necessitate
  a Wind Advisory.

- A Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather, including the threat
  of damaging winds, hail, and a brief tornado, remains in effect
  Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Abnormally warm temperatures (around 15 degrees above normal)
  will continue through Friday, with higher rain chances arriving
  Friday into Saturday with a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

The latest surface analysis places a 1011mb low over SE Kansas
with an attendant quasi-stationary front extending ENE into
Carbondale, Illinois and all the way up into New York. Another
attendant stationary front extends SW into the Texas Panhandle.
Broad high pressure was analyzed across the Northern Plains into
the Great Lake region. Showers and thunderstorms are occurring
along the large quasi-stationary front. Aloft, GOES East Water
Vapor Imagery reveals a deepening shortwave over the Desert
Southwest with broad southwesterly flow along and east of the
Rockies.

As the shortwave crosses the Rockies this evening, strong lee
side cyclogenesis will occur. This surface low will track
northeast into Iowa and slowly fill throughout the day on
Thursday. A tightening surface pressure gradient will bring
strong southwest winds to areas along and west of the Mississippi
River on Thursday. NBM probabilities are in the 70 to 95% range
for sustained winds 25 mph or greater over NE Arkansas and the
Missouri Bootheel and portions of W Tennessee along the
Mississippi River. A wind advisory will be needed.

Strong WAA over the Mid-South will result in low to mid 60s
dewpoints along and west of the Mississippi River Thursday
morning. HREF Joint Probabilities of SBCAPE >500 J/kg, CIN >-
25 J/kg, and 0-6 bulk wind shear > 30 knots are peaking in the
50 to 60 percent range along and west of the Mississippi River by
late Thursday afternoon. HRRR point soundings over NE Arkansas
show steep low level lapse rates of 8C/km from 0-3 km, suggesting
surface based storms by mid to late afternoon. Bulk shear remains
moderate in the 30 to 40 knot range with decently curved and
compact hodographs. The one limiting factor for robust deep
convection is that mid-level lapse rates remain weak around
5.5 to 6 C/km. Nonetheless, a Marginal Risk (1/5) risk remains in
effect for all hazards including: damaging winds, hail, and a
brief tornado. It should be noted that storm coverage will be
low, but likely sufficient to produce a couple of stronger storms
by late afternoon.

The Mid-South will remain warm and mainly capped both Friday and
Saturday as upper level heights build across the region. A closed
upper low will eject across the Mississippi Valley early Saturday
morning and move into the upper Great Lakes region through early
Sunday. As it does, a cold front will move into the region from
the west. LREF joint probabilities of CAPE, CIN, and shear remain
low across the region (less than 20%), suggesting that strong
storms will be confined south of the region.

The long range forecast features broad northwest flow aloft,
suggesting a dry and near normal pattern to begin next week.
Expect highs in the mid 60s with lows in the 40s each morning.
Monday morning`s lows look exceptionally cool with readings in the
upper 30s to lower 40s. A warming trend will begin midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A cluster of thunderstorms situated over northern Mississippi may
impact TUP over the next few hours. This activity will diminish
quickly after 03Z, leaving the remainder of the Mid-South dry.
Overnight, LLWS will impact all sites except for TUP and surface
winds will remain gusty. Elevated winds will persist into
Thursday with gusts in excess of 30 kts at JBR. Confidence in
precise timing and location of precipitation Thursday remains
low, though showers will likely impact JBR, MEM, and MKL by
midday. Otherwise, a brief MVFR deck of clouds is anticipated
overnight but VFR CIGs return after sunrise.

ANS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Minimal fire weather concerns are anticipated through the period
as MinRH remains above 35%. A few stray showers and thunderstorms
are anticipated Wednesday and Thursday, though greater wetting
rain potential exists late Friday into Saturday with a cold
front. Cooler and drier conditions will persist Sunday into early
next week.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028.

MO...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...ANS