Forecast Discussion
483 FXUS64 KMEG 050446 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1046 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1046 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026 - Record-challenging warmth will build into the Mid-South this week. Our warmest day will likely be Thursday when highs will be in the middle 60s to middle 70s. - Our next shot at showers and thunderstorms returns early Thursday, with a low (< 10%) potential for severe weather late Thursday night into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1046 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026 We will continue a quiet first several days of the New Year. A broad ridge with two axes centered over the Great Lakes and over the Plains will shift east over the next several days. A warm front will lift northeast across the Midsouth early Tuesday. Strengthening south winds will usher in an even warmer air mass across the region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Expect high temperatures Tuesday in the mid 60s to low 70s. Dewpoints will surge to the low 60s by midday Thursday with precipitable water values approaching the 99th percentile. A weak cold front will follow closely behind the warm front Tuesday night, but will largely go unnoticed. However, with elevated moisture levels temperatures that are a few degrees cooler and light winds the potential for fog is high (70-80%). The limiting factor may be lingering clouds behind the cold front. Winds aloft will go zonal Tuesday into Wednesday, then shift back from the southwest after midweek in response to a deepening low over northwestern Mexico. Our warmest day should be Thursday when highs will be in the middle 60s to middle 70s. Temperatures this warm in January will challenge record highs. Disturbances tracking through the southwest flow will bring rain showers back to the Middle Mississippi River Valley early Thursday. Due to the abnormally warm temperatures and plenty of dynamic energy aloft, we cannot ignore the possibility of at least a few strong to severe thunderstorms late Thursday night into Friday. However, I would cap that confidence at about 10%. The environmental conditions will feature high shear, low CAPE conditions which is the typical setup for convection this time of year. However, the strongest dynamics currently look to stay mainly to our north and west with the higher instability to our south. These parameters would need more overlap before I`d be too concerned with severe weather. A cold front Friday night should bring temperatures back closer to normal (in the 50s) along with drier conditions on Saturday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1046 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace through much of the TAF period. Light and variable winds overnight will shift south at around 10 kts in the early afternoon ahead of a cold front. As this cold front edges closer, winds will gust up to 20 kts beginning around 04Z at JBR/MEM. A LLJ also looks to dip down around this same timeframe resulting in LLWS at JBR/MEM. Conditions are also expected to lower to MVFR early Tuesday morning, aided by the aforementioned front. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1046 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026 Minimum relative humidity values will remain well above 50 percent for the upcoming week, keeping fire weather concerns to a minimum. RH values will trend higher through at least Thursday. Light wind, abundant moisture and clearing will favor fog Wednesday morning. In addition, 20ft winds will stay between 5 and 10 mph. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...ANS