Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KMEG 182332
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
632 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.UPDATE...

See the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 221 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021/

Short Term...(Tonight and Tuesday)...
Surface and upper level ridging will remain in place across the
Lower Mississippi Valley into Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will be in
the lower to perhaps middle 70s again with lows tonight in the
40s. Leaned towards the lower end of guidance tonight as the NBM
remains too warm due to its nightly warm bias.

CJC

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)...
Overall the upper air pattern is becoming more fall-like with
more progressive and stronger jet penetrations into the lower 48.
The next shortwave to influence our weather moves across the
central US Wed night/Thursday with a nominal probability of
rainfall. The return moisture is sufficient, with dew points
rising into the 60s, for possible thunder as modest instability is
evident, especially during the day on Thursday.

A fairly robust trough builds across the eastern US late in the week
into the weekend, resulting in surface ridging in the Mid-South and
dry weather.  Return flow begins on Sunday with showers/storms
developing in association with a warm front.  This front will move
north of the area bringing more humid and warmer weather for the
beginning of next week.

 Belles

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs

VFR conds over the next 24 hours. Southerly winds will remain 4
kts or less overnight increasing to 10 kts by tomorrow afternoon.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$