Forecast Discussion
568 FXUS64 KMEG 130445 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1045 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1044 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026 - Mild weather will persist through the end of the week with highs in the 60s. - A low pressure system will bring another round of rainfall beginning Saturday that will last through Sunday. A few thunderstorms are expected amidst widespread rain showers. - Weekend rain totals will be in the 1.5 to 2 inch range. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1044 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026 A 1027 mb surface high centered over the Lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley extends into the Southern states. Skies are mostly clear across the region with light east-northeast winds. Decent cooling conditions overnight will result in lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Friday looks like another nice day with a good deal of sunshine and temperatures a few degrees warmer, with highs in the lower 60s north to upper 60s over parts of north Mississippi. Attention will turn to the system ejecting out of the Southwest U.S and northern Mexico starting Friday night. Surface low pressure will develop over the Red River Valley by late Friday night with a warm front extending eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Showers will develop along and north of the front and spread into the Mid South late Friday night into Saturday. Rain chances will be highest across eastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee through Saturday afternoon. Areas to the south and east, including northeast Mississippi, are likely to be rain-free for most of Saturday. Low pressure will track eastward along the warm front Saturday night with heavier showers and isolated thunderstorms spreading across the Mid-South as PWs climb to the 97.5th percentile. The latest models are in better agreement with the low tracking across extreme northern Mississippi. The low`s track places the heaviest rain across northwest sections of the forecast area, which will result in the lowest amounts for northeast Mississippi. There are still some discrepancies between the LREF and the NBM with regard to amounts. The NBM is more aggressive with rainfall amounts, indicating a 40 to 60% chance of more than 2 inches this weekend, which could lead to flooding in low-lying and flood-prone areas. The LREF, on the other hand, has lower amounts and only a 20 to 40% chance of more than 2 inches. Severe weather is very unlikely (