Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS64 KMEG 300129 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 829 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 829 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 A few areas of pop-up convection moved into northeast Arkansas this evening but have now diminished as they entered an area of dry air. The rest of the evening is expected to be rain-free resulting no pops being added to the forecast package. Patchy fog is expected to move into low lying river areas overnight as winds have gone calm across much of the region. A large surface high pressure is currently centered over the Mid-South bringing warm, dry air across our CWA. This warm, dry air is expected to persist through mid-week. The current forecast package is on track. No changes were needed to be made. AEH && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 Hot and dry conditions will continue across the MidSouth through next week. Temperatures will continue to be above-normal with highs in the 90s through the weekend. A cold front will move across the MidSouth midweek and produce showers and storms area-wide. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 GOES Satellite imagery depicts an upper low ,now over the Northeast, moving out of the CONUS. A stout upper level ridge, centered over the Great Lakes region, extends into the MidSouth and dominates the weather pattern. As a result, hot and dry conditions will continue today into next week. Highs will continue to be 10-15 degrees above normal with readings in the the 90s. NBM still forecasts temperatures lower than observed trends, therefore, temperatures were adjusted 1-2 degrees up for best fit. Lows are still expected to be in the 60s for the next few days. Starting next week, the aforementioned ridge will start to weaken as the trough amplifies out west. This will decrease heights over the region leading to cooler temperatures during the day with highs in the upper 80s. As the ridge continues to move east, a broad upper level trough will build into the region on Wednesday. A cold front, ahead of the broad upper level trough, will move through the region and introduce showers and storms into the forecast by midweek. Pops were increased to 20 percent to show potential for showers and thunderstorms during this period. GFS and EURO are more congruent in showing the timing for the greatest chance of convection occurring next Thursday into Friday. GNC && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 Clear skies, light winds and a relatively dry airmass may result in patchy fog near TUP and MKL tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle. Winds tomorrow should be from the northeast 4-8kt. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...JDS