Forecast Discussion
317 FXUS64 KMEG 201813 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1213 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1203 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 The Cold Weather Advisory has been allowed to expire as wind chills have risen into the upper single digits and teens. It is still very cold across the region with temperatures ranging from the mid teens north to mid 20s south. Expect some increasing high clouds this afternoon as an upper trough, and associated reinforcing cold front, make their approach. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 308 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Bitterly cold conditions will gradually moderate through the work week, warming back to near normal by Saturday. Rain showers are expected to return to the Midsouth Saturday night into Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 308 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 A broad, deep trough is in place across the eastern two-thirds of the United States. An Arctic airmass has invaded the Midsouth prompting Cold Weather Advisories for much of the Deep South including all of the Midsouth. Current temperatures are in the teens across the region and should range from 7 to 15 degrees by sunrise. High temperatures are expected to remain below freezing today, and may remain sub-freezing for northern portions of the Midsouth through midweek. A reinforcing cold front Tuesday should result in another bitterly cold morning Wednesday featuring wind chills between 4 and 15 degrees. Surface high pressure should keep us dry through at least Thursday. A highly amplified longwave trough will shift across the Mississippi River Valley Friday. Moisture return ahead of this feature looks minimal, so any precipitation should remain isolated and likely confined to west Tennessee near the Tennessee River. We should transition into southwest flow over the weekend resulting in higher rain chances by Sunday. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday should be in the 50s. 30/Sirmon && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 A weak cold front will move through the region starting late tonight and continuing into Tuesday morning. Some of the short term models bring a period of snow flurries into areas of the Mid-South southwest of KMEM. Any aviation impacts will be minimal. VFR conditions should continue for the entire forecast period. Winds will be mainly from the northeast around 5 knots this afternoon before becoming light and variable overnight. Winds will shift to the northwest on Tuesday around 5 knots behind the cold front. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...ARS