Forecast Discussion

023
FXUS64 KMEG 141112
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
512 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 508 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for portions of the Mid-
  South Sunday and Monday morning for dangerously cold wind
  chills.

- Arctic air will bring the coldest temperatures of the season
  through Monday morning, with wind chills dropping into the
  teens and single digits Sunday and Monday mornings.

- Temperatures will warm quickly to near-normal by Tuesday. Rain
  chances increase by the middle of next week as the pattern
  continues to warm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1053 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Arctic air is racing into the Mid-South behind a cold front this
evening. The front is just dipping into AR/TN as of 11PM and will
continue sinking south overnight. Temperatures will plummet as
wind speeds simultaneously skyrocket with this front as the
pressure gradient tightens and enhances CAA. The pressure
gradient associated with this front will create northerly wind
gusts in excess of 30 MPH, which will add an absolutely brutal
wind chill factor. The coldest morning of the season is on tap
Sunday morning with wind chills in the negatives and single
digits. As such, a Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for much of
the area tonight into Sunday morning.

While temperatures are technically colder by 5-10 degrees Monday,
the 1033 mb surface high being right over us will remove the wind
chill factor from the equation, making it feel slightly warmer.
Regardless, these bitter cold temperatures are meeting Cold
Weather Advisory criteria for our counties in north Mississippi,
so another headline has been issued for Sunday night into Monday
in these areas for wind chills around 10 degrees. Each subsequent
morning next week will continue to warm by a few degrees until
temperatures are back to near normal midweek.

The next system moving in on Thursday brings a very strong WAA
regime, soaring temperatures 10+ degrees above normal in the mid
60s. Despite a modest moisture profile ahead of the front (PWATs
well above normal around 1 inch), there`s little to no
instability to be realized. Long range ensemble mean CAPE values
are less than 100 J/kg during FROPA on Thursday evening, which
will limit any severe weather potential even with a warm and
moist profile. There may be a few rumbles of thunder but this is
looking like a fairly benign cold front next week. After that,
the upper level pattern flattens out almost completely. Zonal
flow aloft will promote benign surface conditions and mild
temperatures well into the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 508 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

A couple more hours of MVFR cigs at TUP otrw VFR conds are
expected through the period. Gusty north winds will diminish this
evening becoming light and variable tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1053 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Minimum RH values Sunday will hover around 25% with bitter cold
temperatures. Humidity continues to stay between 25-30% on Monday
as the dry airmass remains firmly in place. Temperatures and
humidity will be on the rise by midweek as another cold front
brings a 50-60% chance of wetting rains.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST today for ARZ028-036.

MO...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ113-115.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MSZ001>006-008-
     009-012>017.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
     for MSZ010>013-015>017-020>024.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST today for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...SJM