Forecast Discussion
801 FXUS64 KMEG 261734 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1234 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026 - A cold front will bring scattered to numerous showers on Friday. Measurable rainfall chances will range from 20% over north Mississippi to 60% over northeast Arkansas, the Missouri bootheel and northwest Tennessee. - Cooler temperatures are forecast for Saturday. Very low humidity Saturday afternoon will result in elevated fire danger. - Above normal temperatures will return on Sunday and persist into early next week. Rain chances will return by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026 Today`s 12Z 500mb analysis resembled a late-spring type of pattern, with a 589dam ridge centered over northern Mexico extending into the southern Great Plains. Positive height anomalies were noted over most of the CONUS, and the main storm track was displaced north for this time of year, extending from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes. Tonight into early Friday, a northern branch trough will dig southeast from central Canada, depressing midlevel heights over the eastern CONUS. The net result for the Midsouth will be a transition to northwest flow aloft, which will support the passage of a cold front Friday morning into early afternoon. Pre- frontal PWAT values around 1.3 inches (80th percentile of climatology) will support scattered to numerous showers. Instability will be insufficient for thunderstorms during the morning. For the afternoon, modest surface-based CAPE (200 J/kg or less) is depicted by the 12Z HREF over northeast MS, but this instability is capped by warm 700mb temps in the vicinity of the cold front. Given the progressive nature of the cold front (backed by a 1040mb polar high centered over the northern Great Plains) residence time of showers over the Midsouth will be short, resulting in QPF generally less than 0.10 inch. For Saturday, dry polar air will thermally modify under the relatively strong late March sunshine and weakening cold air advection. High temperatures will average 3 to 5 degrees below normal. Dewpoints will take the biggest plunge following Friday`s cold frontal passage, dropping to the low to mid 20s F. This will result in minimum relative humidity ranging from 18 to 25 percent over north MS to near 30 percent in the MO bootheel. Concurrently, a surface pressure ridge axis will settle over the Midsouth, resulting in light easterly winds. The upper pattern will deamplify on Sunday, with quasi-zonal flow overspreading southerly low level return flow over the Midsouth. The net result of warmer temperatures and warmer dewpoints will be another day with minimum RH below 30 percent - perhaps lower if the NBM dewpoints turn out to be too optimistic. Well above normal temperatures will prevail early next week, as the upper ridge center lifts to LA/MS Gulf coast. The upper ridge will continue to lift east through the middle of next week, in tandem with upstream height falls over the southern high plains. By the middle of next week, height falls will begin to impinge on the lower and middle MS River Valley - though there is some lack of model consensus on timing. With PWAT values nearing 1.5 inches and adequate convective instability for thunderstorms, there is a potential to make a small dent in the drought by the end next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026 An approaching cold front will promote southwest wind gusts up to 25 kts across most of the airspace this afternoon, and slightly higher (up to 30 kts) at JBR along the tightest pressure gradient. The precip associated with the front will make its initial approach around 15Z tomorrow with very sparse showers, becoming more widespread by 18Z. PROB30s are currently being utilized to convey these showers due to the dry air seen throughout the vertical column. These will be bonafide light SHRA. Also introduced an MVFR deck with this FROPA as latest guidance trended a bit more pessimistic with ceilings tomorrow morning/afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026 A cold front will move through the region on Friday, bringing scattered to numerous showers. Rainfall will be light, averaging less than one-tenth of an inch north of I-40. Further south, wetting rainfall appears unlikely. Dry weather will prevail over the weekend, with minimum relative humidity ranging from 20 to 30 percent. Humidity will moderate early next week, in advance of rain chances in the middle to late part of midweek. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026-028. MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...CAD