Forecast Discussion
901 FXUS64 KMEG 241716 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1216 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 - Unsettled weather will return to the Mid-South this afternoon with a Marginal (1/5) to Slight Risk (2/5) of severe weather. Damaging wind gusts are the main concern, but large hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. - Additional showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the weekend, with a low chance for a few strong storms late Sunday. - Conditions continue to look favorable for severe thunderstorms on Monday, with at least a 30% chance in some locations. Please continue to monitor the forecast over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Thursday) Issued at 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 Showers and thunderstorms continue to traverse the Mid-South, with some signs of continual weakening over the past few hours. The leading edge of storms has begun to stall a bit, but resurgence is expected to drive southeastward through the afternoon hours. 12Z CAMs initialized fairly poorly, so little confidence was gained on the overall evolution of today`s event. Latest mesoanalysis does suggest that conditions are favorable for a few strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon as this line drifts to the east, with SBCAPE values already over 500 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates > 6. Low-level lapse rates and MLCAPE values are still a bit lackluster, which makes the event still highly conditional. If strong storms do develop through the afternoon and evening, the best chances appear to be over northern MS. This system will continue to move through the area overnight, with general clearing expected as Saturday progresses. The main question for PoPs tomorrow will be how far south the frontal boundary sags tonight, which will play a role in how scattered coverage is into tomorrow. Much of the guidance has continued to trend downward overall, with PoPs lingering through around mid- morning, but leaving much of the area dry by the afternoon and evening. Generally speaking, I tend to favor this overall trend and have adjusted PoPs a bit to account for this in the latest forecast package. Similar to Saturday, PoPs for Sunday have continued to trend downward mainly driven by the placement of the aforementioned frontal boundary. If this boundary does stall south of our area, I think a large portion of the area could remain dry into Sunday as well. A few models do want to bring a weak shortwave through the area Sunday evening to overnight, but confidence remains fairly low with this system. If things were to pan out, a strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. By Monday, the aforementioned frontal boundary will lift northward as a warm front and bring a much warmer and moisture- rich environment back to the area. Over the same timeline, an upper-level low will push off the Rocky Mountains before quickly pulling into the Upper Midwest by Monday evening. This system will bring our next chance for widespread shower and thunderstorm activity by the afternoon and evening. While we are still several days away and outside of much of the CAM guidance, LREF joint probabilities for favorable CAPE and shear conditions are generally in the 40-60% range. There does appear to be a slight disconnect in the timing of favorable instability versus maximized shear potential, but I would not be shocked if these become better aligned in future forecast runs. Guidance does show a pretty potent 700mb jet strengthening Monday afternoon through the evening, which would enhance the already favorable conditions for severe thunderstorms across much of the area. All storm modes (damaging winds, large hail, a few tornadoes) do remain on the table with this set-up. This will be something that needs to be monitored through the weekend, with SPC continuing to highlight a 15% and 30% risk area for portions of the Mid-South. By Tuesday, upper-level flow will go somewhat zonal, keeping some moisture across the area through midweek. Guidance is a bit spread on how quickly this flow regime will become northwesterly, which will play a role in our PoPs through the middle to end of next week. A more zonal pattern, like the ENS has, would favor keeping medium chance PoPs through the end of the week. If the GEFS were to play out, with a quicker northwesterly flow pattern, this would introduce drier conditions by midweek. Regardless, temperatures should be on a downward trend closer to normal, with little forcing for any significant weather impacts Wednesday and beyond as things stand. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 Remnants of last night`s showers and thunderstorms are moving across the Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon. Sufficient instability supports a low chance (20-30%) of a thunderstorm or two at TUP this afternoon. Otherwise, the probabilities for thunderstorms remain too low to mention at remaining sites due to a relatively stable boundary layer. HREF probabilities still remain high (>60% chance) for MVFR/IFR ceilings to develop overnight into Saturday morning with improvement back to VFR conditions by Saturday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 Showers and thunderstorms continue to move across the area, bringing much needed rain. Additional rounds of rainfall are expected over the weekend and into next week, keeping any fire danger concerns to a minimum. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...CJC