Forecast Discussion
941 FXUS64 KMEG 081715 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1115 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026 - Temperatures today will begin to increase as a warm front crosses the area. Expect highs to range from the low 50s to mid 60s. - Dry and above normal temperatures will be in place through Tuesday afternoon with rain chances returning Tuesday night. - Rain and potential thunderstorms return Friday through the weekend, with high uncertainty in regards to rainfall totals. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026 A shortwave trough will continue to move across the MidWest today, providing just enough support to lift a warm front across the Mid-South. Afternoon highs will vary from north to south as this boundary slowly moves across the region. Areas south of the TN/MS border will be warmest with highs topping out in the mid 60s. Temperatures will be the coolest along the TN/KY border where highs are forecast to remain in the low 50s. Areawide warming will occur on Monday as upper level ridging builds into the Mid-South. This pattern will keep the area dry with highs in the 60s and 70s through Tuesday. Unsettled weather will begin late Tuesday as a shortwave and attendant cold front approach the Mid-South. Ahead of this boundary, elevated moisture will aid in the development of showers Tuesday night. This activity will become more widespread throughout the day, eventually dissipating overnight. Recent guidance is now pulling the cold front into central MS instead of stalling along the TN/MS border. As a result, Thursday is now expected to be mostly dry as the entire Mid-South sits well behind the boundary. The forecast for the upcoming weekend is a bit tricky due to large deterministic and ensemble spread. One thing that both the GEFS and ENS agree on is the presence of another shortwave trough over the MidWest. This system will increase rain chances in the Mid-South on Friday with a 20% chance of thunder. Forecast differences emerge on Saturday in regards to the forward propagation of a secondary shortwave. The GEFS favors a more northerly, progressive system that arrives Saturday morning, producing showers and thunderstorms through early Sunday. As a result, QPF is relatively high with up to 2 inches of rain falling. On the other hand, the ENS is favoring a more southerly system that arrives Saturday night. This solution produces less of an areawide rainfall event, instead depicting around 1.15 inches of rain falling in north MS. The NBM does seem to be favoring the GFS as it is depicting 2 inches of rain through Sunday. Regardless of which solution manifests, the upcoming weekend will remain wet and unsettled. ANS && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026 Due to high pressure across the region, there is a high confidence (>90%) of VFR conditions through the TAF cycle at all sites. South winds 6-9kts this afternoon will weaken to less than 5kts tonight and tomorrow in response to a weakening pressure gradient. Winds will veer more westerly during the day tomorrow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026 Fire weather concerns are not anticipated this period as MinRH values remain above 50%. In addition, wetting rain chances return early Wednesday morning and again on Friday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...JDS