Forecast Discussion

258
FXUS64 KMEG 190720
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
220 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 220 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

- Significant river flooding will continue across portions of the
  Mid-South into next week.

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely by Sunday evening into
  Monday. Some storms could be strong to severe with damaging
  winds as the primary concern.

- Unsettled weather conditions will continue through late next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Beginning to see some high clouds spread across the Mid-South
early this morning with gusty winds and mild temperatures.
Overall, a largely uneventful day is expected across the Mid-South
with somewhat gusty winds (20 to 25 mph gusts) continuing and
high temperatures returning to the upper 70s to the NW and upper
80s to the SE. The vast majority of showers and thunderstorms will
likely remain to the west of the area as an upper-level low moves
out of the desert southwest. Won`t rule out a rogue shower or
thunderstorm today or tonight across NE AR, however, the vast
majority of the Mid-South will likely remain dry until at least
Sunday afternoon.

The aforementioned upper-level low is expected to move through the
south/central plains on Sunday, before quickly pulling northward
by Sunday evening. This system will bring showers and
thunderstorms back to the Mid-South, as early as Sunday afternoon
but more than likely holding out until Sunday evening and
overnight. As talked about the past few days, the overall
progression of this system has slowed down a bit with each model
run. With this slow down, my confidence in severe weather has
continued to decrease. There does appear to be a narrow band of
instability that gets pulled up through NE AR and along the MS
River as the low pressure pulls northward. However, most CAMs keep
SBCAPE values around to less than 500 J/kg with NBM probs in the
30 to 40% range to exceed 500 J/kg. A similar, and yet more
lackluster portrait is painted with MLCAPE values. MUCAPE values
are a bit more favorable, but I question if we would be able to
tap into the full potential there. On the more favorable side of
things, there will be ample shear present as the 700 mb jet does
intensify across this area by Sunday evening. However, still think
that the window for any severe weather would be very narrow at
best, so my confidence remains low. This would be for locations
mainly west of the MS River and likely in the Sunday evening
(after 8 PM) window. In conclusion, storms should be losing their
strength as they move into our area, which makes confidence in any
severe weather threats low. If a severe storm does occur,
damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size of quarters would be
the main concern along the main line as it pushes through the
area. The tornado threat is non-zero given the low-level curvature
of our winds, but think the better set up will remain to the west
of our area.

With the slow progression of the frontal boundary, showers and
thunderstorms will likely remain in the forecast through at least
Monday morning and across NE MS into the afternoon hours. There
will be a window of opportunity by the afternoon across NE MS
where instability will begin to increase. However, given the
parent low will be well to the north of the area, think most
storms if any would remain sub-severe. Total rainfall amounts
through the weekend and into Monday will likely remain around 1
inch across the area, so flash flooding should remain fairly
limited. With this being said, any additional rainfall will
eventually move into our already overwhelmed river systems, so
river flooding is expected to continue into next week.

The aforementioned frontal boundary will begin to stall as it
pushes to the edge of the area, which may in turn keep at least
some scattered (50 to 60%) PoPs across MS on Tuesday. Somewhat of
a messier set-up will begin by Wednesday, with a series of systems
moving through the area through the back half of next week. This
will likely keep showers and thunderstorm chances around. Nothing
is jumping off the page in regards to severe weather, but it is
the end of April so we will continue to keep an eye on things in
that regard. High temperatures will remain above-normal throughout
next week, generally spanning the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

VFR conds overnight. Low level winds will be elevated overnight
with LLWS expected. MVFR deck will advect into the area late
tonight into Saturday morning. VFR conds will return by noon
Saturday with winds slowly diminishing as the gradient slackens in
the afternoon.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...SJM