Forecast Discussion

591
FXUS64 KMEG 061748
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1148 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1138 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

- There is a low chance (less than 15 percent) of severe weather
  both Friday and Saturday afternoons. Damaging winds and hail are
  the main threats for both days.

- A pattern change will bring the first hard freeze of the season
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1138 AM CST Thu
Nov 6 2025

Things are benign and unseasonably warm today due to a surface
high over the OH River Valley and a warm front stalled just to our
south. The pattern becomes a bit more active with an incoming
cold front tomorrow. The parent low pressure system is expected to
stay up toward the Great Lakes, but the trailing cold front
extends all the way down to the Gulf Coast. This system is
responsible for our two potential severe weather days  tomorrow
(Friday) and Saturday afternoons. The initial cold front is
expected to arrive Friday afternoon just east of the Mississippi
River. Its looking like the majority of Fridays severe weather
potential will be confined to Middle Tennessee, but we could see a
few stray thunderstorms materialize near the Tennessee River
after 4PM Friday.

Looking at some of the longer range CAMs, there are a few
scenarios where the convection along the front doesnt even
materialize until it crosses the Tennessee River, which would
leave us pretty much dry on Friday evening. This is a very low
confidence severe weather potential at this point just due to the
uncertainty of when the pre-frontal convection will initialize. If
we did see some stronger storms break through, modest CAPE on the
order of 300 J/kg may promote some localized damaging winds and
large hail. Moving into Saturday morning, this same front will
stall just south of I-40. Much of Saturday morning looks dry until
the stalled boundary gets a second wind and continues moving
southeastward in the afternoon. Another round of convection is
expected to materialize Saturday, some of which may again become
strong to severe in the late afternoon to early evening. This
second round of severe weather for Saturday evening is even lower
confidence; convection will have a very narrow window of favorable
instability and shear to tap into before exiting the area. The
main threat, if anything does materialize, will be damaging winds
again on Saturday afternoon.

After the front clears the area on Sunday morning, a second and
much stronger front will race across the region with a 1030 mb
surface high in its wake. The air mass moving in behind the front
originated from the Hudson Bay and is extremely cold and dry. This
strong CAA will cause our first hard freeze of the season early
next week. The probability of temperatures below 28F Monday
morning is 80% or higher for West Tennessee, and these
probabilities increase to the rest of the area on Tuesday.
Frost/Freeze headlines will not be issued since the locally
defined growing season is over, but its worth noting that we
will have widespread frost and our first killing freeze Monday
morning. Temperatures moderate back to near normal by midweek as
conditions remain dry.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

VFR conditions will continue through much of the current TAF
period. Considerable uncertainty exists with SHRA near the end of
the TAF period, so have only included a PROB30 for the time being.
Additional mention may need to be added for tomorrow afternoon
for MKL/TUP. Otherwise, southeast winds will become southwest near
the end of the current period, with gusts upwards of 15 to 20 kts
at times.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1138 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

RH values will remain above 40% each day with light southerly
winds. Unsettled weather will kick off Friday through Saturday
with widespread wetting rain conditions are expected. Sub-freezing
temperatures arrive early next week resulting in no significant
fire weather concerns.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...CMA