Forecast Discussion

757
FXUS64 KMEG 091140 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
640 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

- Warm and humid summer days will continue across the Midsouth
  with highs in the low to mid 90s over the next seven days. The
  midweek periods will likely be the hottest, with peak heat
  indices ranging from 105 to 110.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
  afternoon, mainly over northeast Mississippi.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

A fairly calm overnight period is progressing across the Mid-
South currently with temperatures spanning the 70s. Earlier
shower and thunderstorm activity has continued to wane and move
out of the area, leaving behind dry conditions. With generally
light winds and low dew point depressions overnight, expect for
patchy fog to develop over the next few hours through sunrise,
especially for locations that saw precipitation Saturday
afternoon. Any fog that does develop will quickly mix out
following sunrise.

Beginning on Sunday, we will slowly transition back into a true,
summertime pattern which will likely continue for the foreseeable
future. With generally little upper-level forcing, the majority
of any shower and thunderstorm activity will remain diurnally
driven. Coverage may be a bit more scattered on Sunday, mainly
south of I-40, but coverage will likely remain isolated by Monday
through at least midweek. Temperatures will remain closer to
normal on Sunday with lingering cloud coverage, generally in the
upper 80s to low 90s. By Monday and Tuesday with clearing
conditions, high temperatures will quickly rise back to the low
to mid 90s. Probabilistic guidance is still fairly unimpressed
with the potential for heat index values exceeding 105 degrees on
Sunday, but probabilities begin to increase to around 20 to 30%
by Monday and even higher Tuesday onward. As such, we will
continue to monitor the potential for heat headlines as the week
progresses as portions of the Mid-South will likely meet or
exceed the criteria for issuance.

By Wednesday into Thursday, an upper-level ridge will begin to
strengthen over the Rockies with a low pressure system moving
through the Great Lakes into the northeast. While the deepening
trough over the midwest will allow our area to shift to subtle
northwesterly flow, latest guidance trends quickly rebuild a high
pressure over our area into next weekend. With the potential
northwest flow regime, this would open the door for a few
shortwaves to swing down through the region and increase PoP
chances. However, guidance is trending a little warmer and drier,
leaning more towards a weaker northwesterly flow pattern over the
Mid-South. Latest LREF guidance does tend to favor a drier, more
summertime pattern through the remainder of the week. ENS
guidance leans more towards a gradual warming trend through the
week and into next weekend, while the GEFS starts much warmer and
falls back closer to normal for our temperatures by the end of
the week. Nonetheless, summer is in full swing for the Mid-South
with highs likely remaining in the low to mid 90s to end the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

A weak midlevel trough may aid in the development of isolated
TSRA near TUP this afternoon. The remainder of the TAF sites will
see typical midsummer VFR cumulus and light S/SW surface winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

A typical, summertime weather pattern will continue for the
foreseeable future with no major fire danger concerns. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will remain in the forecast Sunday
afternoon, with isolated coverage through at least the middle of
the week. As such, minimum relative humidity values will remain
above 40% with generally light 20 ft winds through the period.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TNZ002>004-
     020>022-054-055.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...PWB