Forecast Discussion
126
FXUS64 KMEG 211619
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1119 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1119 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025
- Temperatures will remain cool this week with highs in the upper
60s to mid 70s.
- The next chance for appreciable rainfall will arrive Friday into
early next week as a trough moves into the region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Monday)
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025
The latest surface analysis depicts a cold front crossing north
Mississippi (just north of Tupelo, MS). Ahead of this, a few
showers and thunderstorms are soaking our southern tier of
counties in the CWA. As the frontal boundary continues its
southeast trajectory, rain chances will taper off and high
pressure will prevail. This boundary brings in a reinforcement of
cool, dry air. Dewpoints behind this front reside in the 30s and
40s. The combination of dry air, gusty winds from a tight
gradient from the departing trough, and ongoing drought raise
concerns for fire danger through tomorrow. The pressure gradient
will ease, and lower the concern, but keep in mind the ongoing
drought and lack of rainfall in any burning.
The coolest night of the forecast will occur overnight due to
strong radiational cooling. Lows will generally dip into the 40s,
with urbanized areas hovering around 50 degrees and more rural
areas potentially dropping into the upper 30s. With no synoptic
changes through the work week, little change is anticipated with
daily highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s.
Towards the end of the week, a wet and unsettled pattern will
carry into early next week. A low pressure system near the Four
Corners region will spew bursts of energy and send various
shortwaves towards the Mid-South. The rain from these shortwaves
will not be a drought buster, but probabilities from the LREF of
accumulations greater than 1" are in the medium range (50-70%).
Early next week, the Mid-South will be impacted by another low
pressure system. The specific impacts from this system are still
uncertain at this range, but expect continuing precipitation
chances and cool temperatures.
DNM
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025
Gusty post-frontal NW winds are expected this afternoon at the TAF
sites. Winds will become light by this evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025
The combination of dry air, gusty winds and ongoing drought
conditions elevate concerns for fire danger through tomorrow.
Minimum RH values will be 20-25%. Winds will slow by Thursday,
and RH values slowly rise to near or above 30%. Wetting rain
chances will increase this weekend.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CJC