SPC Mesoscale Discussion

SPC MD 480

MD 0480 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA

Mesoscale Discussion 0480
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Illinois...Southern Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 190805Z - 191000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated potential for strong gusts will likely
continue over the next hour or two. The threat should be too
marginal for weather watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from St. Louis shows a
short bowing line segment over southeast Illinois. The storm is
located within a narrow corridor of low-level moisture to the
southeast of a cold front. Aloft, a 80 to 90 knot mid-level speed
max is analyzed by the RAP to the southwest of the line segment.
This mid-level jet appears to be providing lift and strong
deep-layer shear sufficient for a marginal severe threat. As the
short line segment moves eastward, isolated strong gusts will be
possible. Instability towards the east is considerably weaker,
suggesting that the cell should gradually ramp down in intensity
over time.

..Broyles/Gleason.. 04/19/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   39388790 39488709 39508599 39288557 38958555 38678602
            38518709 38398826 38488875 38728894 38978895 39238862
            39388790 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN