SPC Mesoscale Discussion

SPC MD 497

MD 0497 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EAST-CENTRAL MS...NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL...AND NORTHERN GA

Mesoscale Discussion 0497
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Areas affected...Portions of far east-central MS...northern/central
AL...and northern GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 192154Z - 192330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple loosely organized storms capable of marginally
severe hail and locally damaging gusts are possible for the next
couple hours. Watch not expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing across portions
of northern AL this afternoon, ahead of an outflow-augmented cold
front draped across the region. Attempts at convective initiation
are also evident over far east-central MS and northern GA.
Antecedent heating/destabilization of a moist boundary layer (upper
60s/lower 70s dewpoints) has yielded moderate surface-based
instability ahead of the front. This may support a couple loosely
organized multicells and transient supercell structures, given 30-35
kt of effective shear -- characterized by a mostly straight
hodograph (with weak low-level shear). Therefore, marginally severe
hail (near 1 inch in diameter) and locally damaging gusts cannot be
ruled out with any robust/sustained cores during the next couple
hours, before the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization. Weak
synoptic and mesoscale ascent should keep the severe risk localized,
and a watch is not expected.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 04/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33938810 34738544 34948442 34928373 34698342 34288342
            33948386 33478492 32958697 32778803 32878856 33118886
            33458893 33698866 33938810