SPC Mesoscale Discussion

SPC MD 1275

MD 1275 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
MD 1275 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1275
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Areas affected...parts of western and central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 152211Z - 152345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A couple supercells capable of damaging winds and large
hail possible in the near term.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed near the surface low
across the MT/ND/SD border and along a warm front extending across
central North Dakota in the last hour. Daytime heating and
increasing low-level moisture has led to dew points in the mid to
upper 60s with MLCAPE around 1000-2500 J/kg across southern/central
North Dakota. Deep-layer shear around 40-45 kts is in place across
western North Dakota, weakening with eastward extent. The 20z
sounding from BIS shows rather marginal deep-layer shear for
organized storms (around 20 kts). The profile also shows ample
instability with 1900 J/kg of MLCAPE and steep lapse rates around 7
C/km throughout the profile. Cells that form along and near the warm
front and in western ND where stronger deep-layer shear resides, may
take on supercellular modes capable of large hail and damaging winds
in the short term. There is considerable uncertainty in the
near-term coverage of the severe threat, given the poor handling of
this scenario in CAMs. Given uncertainty in coverage, a watch is not
likely at this time but this area will be monitored for trends.

..Thornton/Smith.. 06/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   45790112 45900361 46030391 46160396 46610386 47190311
            47940178 48190120 48300072 48420012 48309968 47849952
            47449942 46809949 45960021 45790112 

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SPC MD 1274

MD 1274 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MD 1274 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1274
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Areas affected...Parts of the central/southern High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 152201Z - 160000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail will be
possible into the early evening.

DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms have recently developed across
southwest KS, with increasing cumulus noted farther south into the
TX/OK Panhandles and TX South Plains vicinity. With a
mid/upper-level shortwave trough currently over central KS moving
away from the region with time, storm coverage may remain somewhat
isolated into the early evening. However, MLCAPE of greater than
1500 J/kg and modestly favorable deep-layer shear will support a few
marginally organized storms. Isolated severe gusts will be possible
within the relatively warm and well-mixed environment across the
region, with the strongest storms also potentially capable of
producing some hail.

..Dean/Smith.. 06/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35060077 34440135 34480295 34650345 35110352 35400310
            37680113 39290028 39239974 36539956 35060077 

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SPC MD 1273

MD 1273 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS
MD 1273 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1273
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Areas affected...parts of central into eastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 152057Z - 152300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development possible through 5-7
PM CDT, with strong gusts approaching or perhaps briefly exceeding
severe limits the primary potential hazard.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has recently increased and
intensified along the leading edge of outflow associated with
weakening initial convective development approaching the I-135/35
corridor of central Kansas.  The boundary layer immediately ahead of
this activity has become strongly heated and deeply mixed (with
surface dew points falling into the lower 60s F as temperatures rose
into the mid 90s F), but may still be characterized by weak to
modest CAPE.  Aided by forcing for ascent associated with weak
mid-level troughing overspreading the central Great Plains, this may
be sufficient to maintain convection along deepening/strengthening
convective outflow  spreading northeastward and eastward through
early evening.  

Although deep-layer shear is weak, the low-level thermodynamic
profiles, coupled with 20-30 kt south to southwesterly mean flow in
the lower/mid-troposphere, probably will be conducive to a few
localized strong to severe downbursts, initially.  Gradually,
though, gusty winds along consolidating outflows are expected to
become the most prominent potential hazard, perhaps approaching or
briefly exceeding severe limits.

..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38379755 39409727 39569589 38709555 37519632 37409791
            38379755 

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