Tropical Weather
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 271125 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located about 900 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days before the system reaches the Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. Interests in the Windward Islands and along the northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of these areas later today. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Northern Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves west-southwestward at about 10 mph toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and approaches the coasts of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could become conducive for gradual development later this week while the system moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 27 Jun 2022 15:28:23 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
265 ABPZ20 KNHC 271122 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Celia, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Offshore of Southern Mexico: A tropical wave located a few hundred miles offshore of the coasts of Guatemala and southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this disturbance during the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Summary for Tropical Storm Celia (EP3/EP032022)
...CELIA SLOWLY WEAKENING... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 the center of Celia was located near 20.8, -116.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Celia Public Advisory Number 44
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 271434 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022 ...CELIA SLOWLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 116.9W ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 116.9 West. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected, and Celia should become a post-tropical remnant low within the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of west-central Mexico during the next couple of days. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tropical Storm Celia Forecast Advisory Number 44
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 27 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 271434 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC MON JUN 27 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 116.9W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 90SE 75SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 116.9W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 116.4W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.4N 118.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.2N 120.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.9N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.6N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.1N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 116.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Celia Forecast Discussion Number 44
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 271435 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022 This morning's satellite presentation consists of a single curved band of deep convection in the south semi-circle of the cyclone. Over the past several hours, this banding feature has decreased in areal extent, and the cloud tops have warmed. A 0945 UTC AMSR2 microwave image revealed a vertically tilted structure with the surface circulation displaced to the southeast of the mid-level feature. The Dvorak satellite intensity estimate T numbers and a recent SATCON member consensus have decreased. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. Celia should continue to spin down slowly during the next few days while traversing decreasing sea surface temperatures. Inhibiting thermodynamic environmental conditions are also expected to contribute to its eventual dissipation toward the end of the week. The NHC forecast is similar to last night's advisory and closely resembles a blend of the IVCN and HCCA model intensity predictions. Celia's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/9 kt, and the system is embedded in the mid-level steering flow generated by a subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone. Little change in motion and forward speed is expected until dissipation. The official track forecast is not much different from the previous one and lies in the middle of the model guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 20.8N 116.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 21.4N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 22.2N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 22.9N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 23.6N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/0000Z 24.1N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tropical Storm Celia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 44
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 27 2022
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 271434
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
1500 UTC MON JUN 27 2022
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Celia Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 27 Jun 2022 14:36:28 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 27 Jun 2022 15:22:56 GMT