Tropical Weather



Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

745 
ABNT20 KNHC 282316
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Ian, located inland over southwestern Florida and on Tropical 
Depression Eleven, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo 
Verde islands. 

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO 
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. 
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under 
WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112022)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOT FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR LONG...
 As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 28
 the center of Eleven was located near 17.2, -35.6
 with movement NW at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 3

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 290231
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112022
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOT FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR LONG...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 35.6W
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 35.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and
a general northwest to north-northwest motion is expected until the 
depression dissipates in a few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 290231
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112022
0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  35.6W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  35.6W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N  35.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.6N  36.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.7N  38.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.1N  39.7W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.0N  40.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N  35.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 290232
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112022
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022
 

There's been little change of note with the depression this 
evening. All of its deep convection is displaced well to the 
northeast of its center of circulation. In the absence of recent 
ASCAT data, the intensity is based on the subjective Dvorak 
classifications from TAFB and SAB which suggest an intensity of 
25-30 kt. Conservatively the advisory intensity was held at 30 kt, 
but this may be generous.

There was a slight westward adjustment to the position of the 
depression at 00Z, which resulted in an adjustment of the track 
forecast in that direction. Otherwise there's no change to any 
thinking behind the forecast. The depression should continue 
heading generally northwestward or north-northwestward for a day 
or two. The environment around the cyclone is forecast to quickly 
get very hostile, which should prevent strengthening and should 
cause it to dissipate within a few days, as indicated by all 
dynamical models. The NHC track and intensity forecasts remain near 
the various consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 17.2N  35.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 18.6N  36.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 20.7N  38.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 23.1N  39.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 26.0N  40.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022                                              

000
FONT11 KNHC 290232
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112022               
0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics

Tropical Depression Eleven 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 02:33:11 GMT

Tropical Depression Eleven 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 02:33:12 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Ian (AT4/AL092022)

...10 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE... ...IAN CONTINUING TO BATTER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC  STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING...
 As of 10:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 28
 the center of Ian was located near 27.4, -81.5
 with movement NNE at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 968 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Hurricane Ian Public Advisory Number 25A

Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 282352
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
 
...IAN CONTINUING TO BATTER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC 
STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 81.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River
* St. Johns River
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* Flamingo to Sebastian Inlet
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Surf City
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet
* Florida Bay
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ian.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ian was located near
latitude 27.2 North, longitude 81.7 West.  Ian is moving toward the
north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h).  On the forecast track, the
center of Ian is expected to move across central Florida tonight and
Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late
Thursday.  Ian is forecast to turn northward on Friday and approach
the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Further weakening is expected
for the next day or so, but Ian could be near hurricane strength 
when it moves over the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it 
approaches the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina 
coasts on Friday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the 
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles 
(280 km). A University of Florida Coastal Monitoring Program wind 
tower near Punta Gorda recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph 
(87 km/h) with a gust to 91 mph (146 km/h). A private weather 
station in Joshua recently measured a wind gust to 89 mph (143 
km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
* Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...12-18 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood...6-10 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...8-12 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...5-8 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6
ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Altamaha Sound to South Santee River...3-5 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River north of Julington...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* South Santee River to Little River Inlet...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* East of Little River Inlet to Cape Lookout...1-3 ft
* Dry Tortugas and Florida Keys...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND:  Catastrophic wind damage is likely near the core of Ian.
Hurricane conditions are ongoing within the Hurricane Warning area
now and will slowly spread northeastward through the night.
 
Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the east coast of
Florida in the Hurricane Warning area starting early Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on
Thursday through late Friday.
 
Tropical storm conditions are occuring in parts of the warning area
on the east coast of Florida and should spread northward through
the northeast Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts tonight
and Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area starting on Friday.
 
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:
 
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima
up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 20 inches, with local
maxima up to 30 inches.
* Coastal Georgia and Lowcountry of South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches,
with local maxima of 12 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 3 to 6 inches, with
local maxima of 8 inches across western North Carolina
 
Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash and urban flooding,
with major to record flooding along rivers, is expected to continue
across central Florida.  Widespread considerable flash, urban, and
river flooding is expected across portions of northeast Florida,
southeastern Georgia, and eastern South Carolina later this week
through the weekend.  Locally considerable flash flooding, urban,
and river flooding is possible this weekend across portions of the
southern Appalachians with limited flooding possible across portions
of southern Mid-Atlantic.
 
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening into tonight
across east central Florida.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci/D. Zelinsky

Hurricane Ian Forecast Advisory Number 25

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 282057
TCMAT4
 
HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SURF
CITY...NORTH CAROLINA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO
CAPE LOOKOUT...NORTH CAROLINA.
 
THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE LOWER KEYS
AND THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER KEYS.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FOR FLORIDA BAY
HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER
* FLAMINGO TO SEBASTIAN INLET
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO SURF CITY
* FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* FLORIDA BAY
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N  82.0W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  945 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  40SE  30SW  45NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  60SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N  82.0W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N  82.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.8N  81.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...250NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.8N  81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...100NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...360NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.0N  80.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.
34 KT...320NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.9N  80.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...210NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.0N  81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.0N  81.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N  82.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Hurricane Ian Forecast Discussion Number 25

Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 282058
TCDAT4
 
Hurricane Ian Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
 
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft provided the last
fix on Ian just before the hurricane made landfall at Cayo Costa,
Florida, with the landfall time near at 305 pm EDT.  The
minimum pressure had risen to about 940 mb at landfall, suggesting
that the winds had come down slightly, and the landfall intensity
was estimated near 130 kt.  While there hasn't been much in situ
data recently, satellite images show that the eye has become more
cloud filled, and Tampa Doppler radar data is indicating a gradual
reduction in winds.  The initial intensity is set to 120 kt on this
advisory.
 
Further weakening is forecast while Ian moves over central Florida
during the next day and emerges into the western Atlantic later on
Thursday.  While there is a lot of vertical wind shear in the
environment there, a favorable trough interaction from a trough in
the southern United States is expected to counteract the shear,
resulting in Ian staying a strong tropical storm through landfall 
on the southeast U.S. coast.  Little change was made to the 
intensity forecast, which is near or somewhat above the consensus 
guidance.
 
The hurricane is moving to the north-northeast at about 8 kt.  The
aforementioned trough is likely to cause Ian to turn northward over
the western Atlantic and to the north-northwest by the weekend.
Model guidance is just a bit faster to the north-northeast than the
last cycle, and the new forecast is nudged in that direction.  The 
trough will probably cause Ian to transition to an extratropical
cyclone in a few days over the southeastern United States, and this
new forecast reflects this likelihood.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 18 feet above ground
level along with destructive waves is ongoing along the southwest
Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach, including
Charlotte Harbor.
 
2. Catastrophic wind damage is occurring along the southwestern
coast of Florida in areas near the eyewall of Ian. Hurricane-force
winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland to central
Florida near the core of Ian through early Thursday. Hurricane
conditions are expected along the east-central Florida coast
overnight through early Thursday.
 
3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week
and this weekend.  Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic
flooding, with major to record river flooding, are expected to
continue across portions of central Florida with considerable
flooding in northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and eastern South
Carolina.
 
4.  There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge on Thursday
and Friday along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina, with hurricane conditions possible. Residents in these
areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 26.9N  82.0W  120 KT 140 MPH...INLAND
 12H  29/0600Z 27.8N  81.6W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 24H  29/1800Z 28.8N  81.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 36H  30/0600Z 30.0N  80.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  30/1800Z 31.9N  80.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  01/0600Z 34.0N  81.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  01/1800Z 36.0N  81.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Ian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022                                              

000
FONT14 KNHC 282057
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  25                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022               
2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120   
KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H.                                           
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   9(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  18(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   7(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   6(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   8(10)  21(31)   X(31)   X(31)
FLORENCE SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   8(10)  22(32)   X(32)   X(32)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)  12(15)   8(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  15(20)   9(29)   X(29)   X(29)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)  15(19)  16(35)   X(35)   X(35)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   4( 4)  10(14)  31(45)   9(54)   X(54)   X(54)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   5(13)   X(13)   X(13)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  2   5( 7)  13(20)  30(50)   8(58)   X(58)   X(58)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   5(15)   X(15)   X(15)
BEAUFORT MCAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   5( 9)  13(22)   X(22)   X(22)
AUGUSTA GA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  3   4( 7)   8(15)  19(34)   6(40)   X(40)   X(40)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  4  35(39)  19(58)   9(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   5( 5)  10(15)   4(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
KINGS BAY GA   64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  3   9(12)   5(17)   3(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  5  43(48)  20(68)   6(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  1  11(12)  14(26)   4(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  5  37(42)  13(55)   3(58)   1(59)   X(59)   X(59)
JACKSONVILLE   50  1   4( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34 32  36(68)   2(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  2   8(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34 70  23(93)   3(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  5  51(56)   5(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  1  30(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
THE VILLAGES   34 92   5(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
THE VILLAGES   50 13  41(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
THE VILLAGES   64  1   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ORLANDO FL     34 99   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ORLANDO FL     50 48  37(85)   1(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
ORLANDO FL     64 15  41(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34 96   3(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 16  39(55)   2(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  3  33(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
PATRICK AFB    34 96   3(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PATRICK AFB    50 17  39(56)   2(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
PATRICK AFB    64  3  33(36)   X(36)   X(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34 95   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
FT PIERCE FL   50  7  16(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
FT PIERCE FL   64  1   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
W PALM BEACH   34 87   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
W PALM BEACH   50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34 68   1(69)   X(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
 
MIAMI FL       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
HOMESTEAD ARB  34 28   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
MARATHON FL    34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NAPLES FL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NAPLES FL      50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
FT MYERS FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FT MYERS FL    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FT MYERS FL    64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
VENICE FL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VENICE FL      50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VENICE FL      64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
TAMPA FL       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
TAMPA FL       50 83   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
TAMPA FL       64 16   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34 52  12(64)   1(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  5  12(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Hurricane Ian Update Statement

Issued at 1000 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022  

000
WTNT64 KNHC 290156
TCUAT4
 
Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1000 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...10 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...IAN CONTINUING TO BATTER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC 
STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING...

Tropical storm conditions are occurring over a wide swath of the 
Florida peninsula.  An automated station at the Airglades Airport, 
located west of Lake Okeechobee recently reported sustained winds of 
42 mph (68 km/h) with a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h).  A WeatherFlow 
station located at Skyway Beach in St. Petersburg, Florida recently 
measured sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to 51 mph 
(82 km/h). A WeatherFlow station located at Melbourne Beach Barrier 
Island Sanctuary recently observed sustained winds of 42 mph (68 
km/h) with a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 81.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM S OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky

Hurricane Ian Graphics

Hurricane Ian 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 23:53:17 GMT

Hurricane Ian 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 21:22:47 GMT

Hurricane Ian Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

Hurricane Ian Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 21:56:07 GMT

Hurricane Ian Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Hurricane Ian Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 22:49:29 GMT

Hurricane Ian Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

Hurricane Ian Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 20:58:32 GMT

Local Statement for Wilmington, NC

Issued at  518 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Local Statement for Columbia, SC

Issued at  519 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Local Statement for Charleston, SC

Issued at  522 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL

Issued at  530 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 /430 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022/

Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC

Issued at  536 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Local Statement for Jacksonville, FL

Issued at  538 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Local Statement for Key West, FL

Issued at  607 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Local Statement for Tampa Bay Area, FL

Issued at  608 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Local Statement for Melbourne, FL

Issued at  616 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Local Statement for Miami, FL

Issued at  639 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282311
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 28 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico: 
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
south of the southern coast of Mexico continue to show signs of 
organization. Further development is anticipated and a tropical 
depression is likely to form as soon as tonight. The system is 
forecast to move west-northwestward off the coast of southwestern 
Mexico for the next couple of days, and then could turn northward 
over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Western East Pacific:
The remnants of Newton are located about 1,200 miles west-southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 
Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low has weakened 
today. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low has 
also decreased and become less organized during the past several 
hours. Some slight development is still possible tonight or tomorrow 
while the system moves slowly westward over the far western portion 
of the eastern North Pacific. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Summary for Tropical Depression Sixteen-E (EP1/EP162022)

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 28
 the center of Sixteen-E was located near 14.4, -103.7
 with movement WNW at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022  

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 290240
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162022
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022
 
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 103.7W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression 
Sixteen-E was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 103.7 
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph 
(17 km/h). A continued west-northwest motion at a slightly faster 
forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. The system is 
forecast to slow down and turn toward the north or north-northeast 
over the weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected, and the system is forecast to become a 
tropical storm tomorrow and could reach hurricane strength by the 
end of the week.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022  

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 290240
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162022
0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 103.7W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 103.7W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 103.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.1N 105.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.1N 107.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.8N 108.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.5N 108.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.7N 107.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 23.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 25.0N 106.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 103.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022  

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 290240
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162022
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022
 
The area of low pressure located south of the southwestern coast of 
Mexico has steadily gained organization throughout the day. Recent 
microwave imagery indicated the formation of convective banding and 
an earlier partial ASCAT pass suggested the system likely has a 
well-defined center. Recent Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB 
were both 2.0, another sign that the system has become better 
organized. Collectively these data support classifying the system as 
a tropical cyclone, and advisories have been initiated on Tropical 
Depression Sixteen.
 
For the next 48 to 60 h, the forecast is fairly straightforward with 
high confidence. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest 
near 9 kt, and that general motion should continue as the system is 
steered by a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for strengthening, and all of the 
intensity models suggest it will become a tropical storm quickly, 
and continue strengthening to hurricane intensity a day or two after 
that.
 
The main concern with the forecast is what happens beyond 60 h, when 
confidence in the forecast decreases considerably. There is a clear 
bifurcation in the track guidance at that point that appears to be 
linked to the intensity and vertical extent of the cyclone. If the 
cyclone is relatively deep at that point, which is shown by all of 
the normally reliable intensity guidance, it will likely turn 
northward or north-northeastward as it interacts with a mid- to 
upper-level trough. However, some models like the ECMWF forecast a 
shallower cyclone that takes a drastically different path slowly 
westward, steered primarily by lower-level winds. The result is a 
massive spread in the track guidance, with most of the consensus 
aids caught somewhat between those two scenarios. Although the ECMWF 
solution can not be dismissed entirely, the more skillful intensity 
guidance (supported by the favorable environment) suggest that the 
eastern solution toward Mexico may be more likely. The NHC forecast 
therefore favors the northeastern solution and shows the cyclone 
moving toward the coast of Mexico by 72-96 h. Strong upper-level 
winds associated with the aforementioned trough and a drier 
surrounding environment should cause the cyclone to weaken as it 
moves closer to the coast, and it will likely quickly dissipate if 
it moves inland. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the 
intensity consensus throughout the forecast, except at 96 h to 
reflect that the official forecast position is still over water at 
that time.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 14.4N 103.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 15.1N 105.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 16.1N 107.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 16.8N 108.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 17.5N 108.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  01/1200Z 18.5N 108.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 19.7N 107.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 23.0N 107.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 25.0N 106.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022                                              

000
FOPZ11 KNHC 290240
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162022               
0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  14(20)   3(23)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  14(20)   4(24)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   9(17)
CULIACAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  23(26)  26(52)   2(54)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)   1(20)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  26(33)   7(40)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)
MAZATLAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   1(15)
SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)   1(15)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 105W       34 48   7(55)   X(55)   1(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)
15N 105W       50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)  11(16)   3(19)   X(19)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 110W       34  X   2( 2)   7( 9)   6(15)   5(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
20N 110W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)  23(33)   5(38)   X(38)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)  13(25)   2(27)   1(28)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Graphics

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 02:41:58 GMT

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 02:41:58 GMT