Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 230534
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Melissa, located over the central Caribbean Sea.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Gibbs
Summary for Tropical Storm Melissa (AT3/AL132025)
...MELISSA CRAWLING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO THE WEEKEND... As of 2:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 the center of Melissa was located near 14.5, -74.7 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tropical Storm Melissa Public Advisory Number 7a
Issued at 200 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025 000 WTNT33 KNHC 230535 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 200 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025 ...MELISSA CRAWLING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 74.7W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 74.7 West. Melissa is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest or north-northwest is forecast during the next day or two, followed by a westward turn by the weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to be nearer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, with more substantial intensification expected by the weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti beginning on Friday. Tropical storm conditions could begin in Jamaica tonight or on Friday. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica through Saturday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday. However, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are possible. Across Puerto Rico, northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Saturday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least Saturday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 7
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2025 940 WTNT23 KNHC 230235 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025 0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 74.6W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....180NE 60SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 74.6W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 74.5W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.7N 74.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.0N 75.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.3N 75.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.7N 75.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.0N 75.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.1N 76.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 16.0N 77.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 16.5N 78.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 74.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 7
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230236 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025 Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations and satellite imagery indicate that Melissa remains a sheared tropical cyclone, With The low-level center of the storm situated to the west and northwest of the main areas of thunderstorms. The convection continue to be very deep with cloud tops to -80 deg C or colder. There is some evidence of a convective banding feature over the southern portion of the circulation, but the overall cloud pattern is not well organized. Upper-level outflow continues to be restricted to the west of the storm due to the west-northwesterly shear. Tail Doppler data from the NOAA aircraft show a significant eastward tilt of the vortex with height. Observations from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the central pressure is not falling at this time, and that the maximum winds remain near 45 kt. This is also supported by objective satellite-derived intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS. Center fixes from the aircraft show that Melissa is still moving very slowly, at around 270/2 kt. In the short term, the cyclone is expected to turn northwestward to northward in a weakness in the mid-level ridge. In 48 hours or so, a weak ridge is expected to build to the north of Melissa which should induce a westward turn. Around the end of the forecast period, the ridge is expected to weaken and the system is predicted to turn to the right. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies between the latest HCCA corrected consensus and the simple dynamical model consensus. This is somewhat west of the latest Google DeepMind ensemble mean forecast. There continues to be a large spread in the guidance models, indicating less than normal confidence in the track forecast, especially around day 5. Melissa is likely to continue to be influenced by significant westerly vertical wind shear during the next day or two, so only slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Later in the forecast period, the global models show a relaxation of the shear. This, along with the very high oceanic heat content over the area, could result in significant strengthening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and very close to the HCCA and FSU Superensemble guidance. Key Messages: 1. Melissa is forecast to meander over the central Caribbean Sea and could potentially become a major hurricane by late this weekend or early next week. Interests in Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and the Dominican Republic are urged to continue monitoring the latest forecasts. 2. Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged period of strong winds, possibly lasting for a day or more, is increasing for Jamaica and the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong winds could begin in these areas as early as late Thursday or Friday and continue increasing over the weekend. 3. Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend, bringing a risk of significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 14.3N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 14.7N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 15.0N 75.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 15.3N 75.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 15.7N 75.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 16.0N 75.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 16.1N 76.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 16.0N 77.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 16.5N 78.5W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2025 000
FONT13 KNHC 230236
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10)
SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
PT GALLINAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 17(24)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 18(22) 16(38) 9(47)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
KINGSTON 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 30(40) 15(55) 5(60)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) 2(21)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7)
LES CAYES 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 2(15)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 7(12) 3(15) 2(17)
CAPE BEATA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 1(13)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Melissa Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Oct 2025 05:35:59 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Oct 2025 03:22:09 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
150
ABPZ20 KNHC 230535
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Oct 22 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Central East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the coast
of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the end of the weekend while it moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 23 Oct 2025 07:18:54 GMT