Tropical Weather
Tropical Sea Temperatures
Current Atlantic Satellite Loop
Current Pacific Satellite Loop
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 160526 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Humberto, located a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida. Showers and thunderstorms have increased overnight in association with an area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next two to three days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico are associated with an upper-level low and a weak surface trough. Little, if any, development of this system is expected before it moves inland along the northwestern Gulf coast tonight or Tuesday. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rainfall along portions of Texas coast later this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
Summary for Hurricane Humberto (AT4/AL092019)
...HUMBERTO BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 the center of Humberto was located near 29.4, -77.6 with movement NE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory Number 14
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 160236 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 ...HUMBERTO BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 77.6W ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor the progress of Humberto. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 77.6 West. Humberto is moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Monday morning, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed over the next 3 days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Outer rain bands associated with Humberto are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in the northwest Bahamas, with isolated storm total amounts of 6 inches. Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning late Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 14
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 526 WTNT24 KNHC 160236 TCMAT4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN AND AROUND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HUMBERTO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 77.6W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 130SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 77.6W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 77.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 29.8N 77.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.1N 76.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.5N 74.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 30.8N 73.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 31.8N 68.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 35.0N 63.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 39.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 77.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 14
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 147 WTNT44 KNHC 160237 TCDAT4 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 700 mb flight-level wind data from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Humberto indicate that the system's intensity is now 65 kt. This is also supported by Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and it makes the cyclone the third hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic season. Humberto's cloud pattern has continued to gradually become better organized, with increasing coverage and intensity of deep convection, and pronounced upper-level outflow over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. The hurricane is expected to traverse warm Gulf Stream waters for the next several days, but the dynamical models forecast a significant increase in southwesterly vertical shear through 72 hours. In spite of the latter unfavorable factor, the numerical guidance generally shows intensification. This is likely at least partially due to some baroclinic forcing caused by a strong mid-latitude trough to the north and northeast of Humberto. The official forecast is a blend of the latest simple and corrected consensus models and is very similar to the previous one. Humberto continues to move very slowly and the latest aircraft and satellite center fixes indicate that the motion is now northeastward or 040/3 kt. The hurricane has just rounded the western periphery of a subtropical anticyclone and steering currents are likely to remain weak for the next couple of days. An east-northeastward track with a very gradual increase in forward speed is expected for much of the period while Humberto moves between the subtropical high and stronger westerlies associated with the trough to the north. The new NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one in 4-5 days, but not as slow as the latest ECMWF and GFS global model runs. Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf conditions and life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 29.4N 77.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 29.8N 77.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 30.1N 76.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 30.5N 74.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 30.8N 73.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 31.8N 68.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 35.0N 63.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 39.0N 60.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019
000
FONT14 KNHC 160237
PWSAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEW RIVER NC 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
SURF CITY NC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
WILMINGTON NC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
LITTLE RIVER 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CHARLESTON SC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PATRICK AFB 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FT PIERCE FL 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
W PALM BEACH 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 49(79) 1(80)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 38(43) 2(45)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 1(24)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Humberto Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 02:38:53 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 03:24:42 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 160545 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Kiko, located nearly 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Showers and thunderstorms have increased tonight in association with an area of low pressure centered several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression could form within the next two to three days. After mid week, this system is likely to interact or merge with the disturbance to its east, and further development after that time is not anticipated. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers centered a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle of the week as the system moves west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
Summary for Hurricane Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
...COMPACT BUT POWERFUL KIKO MOVING SLOWLY OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 the center of Kiko was located near 17.2, -122.6 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 954 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
Hurricane Kiko Public Advisory Number 15
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 160231 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 ...COMPACT BUT POWERFUL KIKO MOVING SLOWLY OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 122.6W ABOUT 910 MI...1470 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 122.6 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a slow westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Kiko is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Hurricane Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 15
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 160231 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.6W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.6W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.3W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.0N 125.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.0N 127.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 17.4N 129.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 17.6N 131.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 122.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 15
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160232 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Kiko has lost some organization this evening. The eye of the hurricane has been filling, and the convective pattern is not as symmetric as it was earlier today. The initial intensity is lowered only slightly to 110 kt, following a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates, but this could be a little generous. Recent ASCAT data indicate that although Kiko is a powerful hurricane, its wind field is quite compact. Based on that data, Kiko's tropical-storm-force winds extend no more than 50 n mi from the center, with hurricane-force winds estimated to extend up to 20 n mi from the center. The hurricane is moving westward at about 7 kt, steered by a narrow subtropical ridge to its north. This motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for about 24 hours. The models all depict Kiko bending to the west-southwest late Monday and Tuesday in response to a ridge building to its northwest. After that time, the model solutions diverge considerably with some taking Kiko to the northwest and others more westward or southwestward. The NHC official track forecast lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope, and the bottom line is that Kiko will likely be moving slowly over the eastern Pacific waters during the next several days. The intensity models all show Kiko gradually weakening through the forecast period. Some of this weakening is likely to be a result of upwelling due to its expected slow motion and perhaps intrusions of dry air. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and generally follows the guidance of the intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 17.2N 122.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 17.0N 125.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 17.0N 127.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 17.4N 129.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 17.6N 131.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Hurricane Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 160232
PWSEP3
HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110
KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
15N 125W 34 1 4( 5) 14(19) 13(32) 7(39) 3(42) X(42)
15N 125W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
20N 125W 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 5(18) 2(20) X(20)
15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 14(29) 5(34)
15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)
15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 12(20) 8(28)
20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Kiko Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 02:33:22 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 03:31:26 GMT