Tropical Weather


Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230534
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Melissa, located over the central Caribbean Sea.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Gibbs

Summary for Tropical Storm Melissa (AT3/AL132025)

...MELISSA CRAWLING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO THE WEEKEND... As of 2:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 the center of Melissa was located near 14.5, -74.7 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Melissa Public Advisory Number 7a

Issued at 200 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025 000
WTNT33 KNHC 230535
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
 
...MELISSA CRAWLING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING TO 
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 74.7W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 74.7 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow forward speed 
and a gradual turn to the northwest or north-northwest is forecast 
during the next day or two, followed by a westward turn by the 
weekend.  On the forecast track,  Melissa is expected to be nearer 
to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next 
couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or 
two, with more substantial intensification expected by the 
weekend.  Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of 
days.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti beginning on Friday.  Tropical storm conditions could begin in
Jamaica tonight or on Friday.
 
RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to the
southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
through Saturday, with locally higher amounts possible.  Additional
heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday.  However, uncertainty
in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact
totals.  Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides are possible.
 
Across Puerto Rico, northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and
western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Saturday.
Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least Saturday.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions 
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 7

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2025 940 
WTNT23 KNHC 230235
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132025
0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2025
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  74.6W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE  60SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  74.6W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  74.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.7N  74.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.0N  75.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.3N  75.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.7N  75.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  20SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.0N  75.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 35NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.1N  76.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 45NE  30SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 16.0N  77.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 16.5N  78.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE  75SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N  74.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025 000
WTNT43 KNHC 230236
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations and 
satellite imagery indicate that Melissa remains a sheared tropical 
cyclone, With The low-level center of the storm situated to the 
west and northwest of the main areas of thunderstorms.  The 
convection continue to be very deep with cloud tops to -80 deg C or 
colder.  There is some evidence of a convective banding feature over 
the southern portion of the circulation, but the overall cloud 
pattern is not well organized.  Upper-level outflow continues to be 
restricted to the west of the storm due to the west-northwesterly 
shear.  Tail Doppler data from the NOAA aircraft show a 
significant eastward tilt of the vortex with height.  Observations 
from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the central pressure is not 
falling at this time, and that the maximum winds remain near 45 kt.  
This is also supported by objective satellite-derived intensity 
estimates from UW-CIMSS.

Center fixes from the aircraft show that Melissa is still moving 
very slowly, at around 270/2 kt.  In the short term, the cyclone is 
expected to turn northwestward to northward in a weakness in the 
mid-level ridge.  In 48 hours or so, a weak ridge is expected to 
build to the north of Melissa which should induce a westward turn.  
Around the end of the forecast period, the ridge is expected to  
weaken and the system is predicted to turn to the right.  The 
official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and 
lies between the latest HCCA corrected consensus and the simple 
dynamical model consensus.   This is somewhat west of the latest 
Google DeepMind ensemble mean forecast.  There continues to be a 
large spread in the guidance models, indicating less than normal 
confidence in the track forecast, especially around day 5.

Melissa is likely to continue to be influenced by significant 
westerly vertical wind shear during the next day or two, so only 
slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.  Later in 
the forecast period, the global models show a relaxation of the 
shear.  This, along with the very high oceanic heat content over 
the area, could result in significant strengthening.  The official 
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and very close 
to the HCCA and FSU Superensemble guidance.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Melissa is forecast to meander over the central Caribbean Sea and
could potentially become a major hurricane by late this weekend or 
early next week.  Interests in Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and the 
Dominican Republic are urged to continue monitoring the latest 
forecasts.
 
2. Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged period of
strong winds, possibly lasting for a day or more, is increasing for
Jamaica and the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti.  Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong
winds could begin in these areas as early as late Thursday or
Friday and continue increasing over the weekend.
 
3. Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend,
bringing a risk of significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
numerous landslides.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 14.3N  74.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 14.7N  74.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 15.0N  75.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 15.3N  75.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 15.7N  75.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  25/1200Z 16.0N  75.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 16.1N  76.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 16.0N  77.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 16.5N  78.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2025 000
FONT13 KNHC 230236
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132025               
0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)
SAN ANDRES     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
SAN ANDRES     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
PT GALLINAS    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   2( 9)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
CIENFUEGOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  17(24)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)  18(22)  16(38)   9(47)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   4(13)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
KINGSTON       34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   6(10)  30(40)  15(55)   5(60)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   9(19)   2(21)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   4(13)   2(15)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   7(12)   3(15)   2(17)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   5(10)   2(12)   1(13)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Storm Melissa Graphics

Tropical Storm Melissa 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Oct 2025 05:35:59 GMT

Tropical Storm Melissa 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Oct 2025 03:22:09 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

150 
ABPZ20 KNHC 230535
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Oct 22 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Central East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the coast
of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the end of the weekend while it moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 23 Oct 2025 07:18:54 GMT