Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 271719 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Southwestern Caribbean Sea: A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend when the system begins to drift northward or northeastward over the southwestern and south-central Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 27 Oct 2024 18:05:14 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 271719 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 27 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy, located over the western portion of the eastern Pacific basin. Western East Pacific (EP91): A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the western portion of the eastern Pacific basin. This system is expected to move into the central Pacific basin on Wednesday or Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Central East Pacific: A low pressure system could form within the next day or two several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow development is possible thereafter as the system moves slowly toward the west-northwest. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy (EP2/EP122024)
...KRISTY BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Oct 27 the center of Kristy was located near 22.6, -129.8 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Public Advisory Number 24
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 27 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 271431 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 27 2024 ...KRISTY BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 129.8W ABOUT 1265 MI...2040 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 129.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A sharp turn to the west and west-southwest is expected late today and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and the post-tropical low is expected to dissipate on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on this system please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Forecast Advisory Number 24
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 27 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 271430 TCMEP2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 1500 UTC SUN OCT 27 2024 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 129.8W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 50SE 70SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 129.8W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 129.6W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.7N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.2N 131.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 129.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON KRISTY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 24
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 27 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 271431 TCDEP2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Very strong southwesterly vertical wind shear, dry air entrainment, and cool waters have taken a toll on Kristy. The storm has lacked organized deep convection since about 03Z, and it has generally consisted of a low-level cloud swirl since that time. Therefore, Kristy no longer meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and this is the last advisory on this system. The initial wind speed is lowered to 40 kt, assuming some decrease in winds from the ASCAT pass overnight that showed maximum winds close to 50 kt. The gale-force low is still moving north-northwestward at about 7 kt, but it is expected to turn to the west and west-southwest later today and Monday when it moves in the low-level flow. The post-tropical cyclone is also expected to continue to weaken and dissipate completely on Monday. This is the last NHC advisory on Kristy. For more details on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. This information can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 22.6N 129.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 28/0000Z 22.7N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 28/1200Z 22.2N 131.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 27 2024
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 271431
PWSEP2
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
1500 UTC SUN OCT 27 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Oct 2024 14:32:53 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Oct 2024 15:23:52 GMT