Tropical Weather
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 241219 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta, centered inland over Mississippi. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta Public Advisory Number 28
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 241114 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Thu Sep 24 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Lowell, located nearly 1000 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An area of low pressure is expected to form south or southwest of the southwest coast of Mexico next week. Some gradual development will be possible thereafter while the system moves generally west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Summary for Tropical Storm Lowell (EP2/EP172020)
...LOWLY LOWELL LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME... ...FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN... As of 5:00 AM HST Thu Sep 24 the center of Lowell was located near 21.5, -124.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Lowell Public Advisory Number 16
Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2020 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 241434 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020 500 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2020 ...LOWLY LOWELL LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME... ...FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 124.9W ABOUT 965 MI...1550 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 124.9 West. Lowell is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A generally westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated. Lowell is forecast to become a remnant low by early Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Advisory Number 16
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2020 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 241433 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020 1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 124.9W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 124.9W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 124.4W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.7N 126.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.8N 128.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.7N 131.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 21.5N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.4N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.4N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 21.5N 148.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 124.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Discussion Number 16
Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2020 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 241435 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020 500 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2020 Lowell hasn't changed much. Cloud tops associated with the areas of remaining convection east of the lowly tropical storm's center have warmed slightly during the past few hours, but not enough to change satellite intensity estimates. The intensity is therefore held at 40 kt, in line with earlier ASCAT data. Virtually no change was made to any aspect of the NHC forecast. A mid-level ridge to the north of Lowell will likely steer the tropical storm westward for the next day or two. Lowell will move over gradually cooler waters and should weaken in response. A favorable upper-air environment may help the tropical cyclone to maintain its convection for up to 36 hours, but an increase in westerly wind shear should put an end to any remaining organized convection after that. Based on simulated satellite fields, several models forecast that it will become a remnant low even sooner than that. Low-level tradewind flow should take over the steering once the cyclone becomes a shallow remnant low, resulting in a slightly faster, but generally similar westward motion. Both the track and intensity forecasts are nearly identical to the multi-model consensus throughout the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 21.5N 124.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 21.7N 126.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 21.8N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 21.7N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 21.5N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0000Z 21.4N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z 21.4N 139.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1200Z 21.5N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1200Z 21.5N 148.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Lowell Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2020
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 241434
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2020
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 125W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Lowell Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 24 Sep 2020 14:37:35 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 24 Sep 2020 15:32:23 GMT