Tropical Weather



Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241219
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta, centered inland over Mississippi.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. 

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta Public Advisory Number 28

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241114
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 24 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Lowell, located nearly 1000 miles west of the southern tip of 
the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to form south or southwest of 
the southwest coast of Mexico next week. Some gradual development 
will be possible thereafter while the system moves generally 
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Summary for Tropical Storm Lowell (EP2/EP172020)

...LOWLY LOWELL LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME... ...FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...
 As of 5:00 AM HST Thu Sep 24
 the center of Lowell was located near 21.5, -124.9
 with movement WNW at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Lowell Public Advisory Number 16

Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2020  

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 241434
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172020
500 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2020
 
...LOWLY LOWELL LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME...
...FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 124.9W
ABOUT 965 MI...1550 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 124.9 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A generally 
westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected for 
the next several days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is anticipated. Lowell is forecast to become a 
remnant low by early Saturday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Advisory Number 16

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2020  

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 241433
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172020
1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 124.9W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 124.9W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 124.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.7N 126.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.8N 128.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.7N 131.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 21.5N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.4N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.4N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 21.5N 148.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 124.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Discussion Number 16

Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2020  

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 241435
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172020
500 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2020
 
Lowell hasn't changed much. Cloud tops associated with the areas of 
remaining convection east of the lowly tropical storm's center have 
warmed slightly during the past few hours, but not enough to change 
satellite intensity estimates. The intensity is therefore held at 
40 kt, in line with earlier ASCAT data.
 
Virtually no change was made to any aspect of the NHC forecast. A 
mid-level ridge to the north of Lowell will likely steer the 
tropical storm westward for the next day or two. Lowell will move 
over gradually cooler waters and should weaken in response. A 
favorable upper-air environment may help the tropical cyclone to 
maintain its convection for up to 36 hours, but an increase in 
westerly wind shear should put an end to any remaining organized 
convection after that. Based on simulated satellite fields, several 
models forecast that it will become a remnant low even sooner than 
that. Low-level tradewind flow should take over the steering once 
the cyclone becomes a shallow remnant low, resulting in a slightly 
faster, but generally similar westward motion. Both the track and 
intensity forecasts are nearly identical to the multi-model 
consensus throughout the forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 21.5N 124.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 21.7N 126.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 21.8N 128.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 21.7N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 21.5N 133.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  27/0000Z 21.4N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1200Z 21.4N 139.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/1200Z 21.5N 144.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1200Z 21.5N 148.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Lowell Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2020                                              

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 241434
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172020               
1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 125W       34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 130W       34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tropical Storm Lowell Graphics

Tropical Storm Lowell 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 24 Sep 2020 14:37:35 GMT

Tropical Storm Lowell 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 24 Sep 2020 15:32:23 GMT