Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
713
ABNT20 KNHC 012343
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Near the Southeastern U.S.:
An area of low pressure could develop near the southeast U.S.
Atlantic or Gulf coasts over the weekend along a weakening front.
Although significant development is not anticipated, a tropical or
subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or
early next week while the system drifts and moves little. Regardless
of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the
southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 02 Jul 2025 00:00:10 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012337
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jul 1 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin, a couple hundred
miles offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.
South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
offshore of southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
Summary for Hurricane Flossie (EP1/EP062025)
...FLOSSIE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 5:00 PM MST Tue Jul 01 the center of Flossie was located near 17.9, -107.1 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
Hurricane Flossie Public Advisory Number 11a
Issued at 500 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 473 WTPZ31 KNHC 012343 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 500 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 ...FLOSSIE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 107.1W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 107.1 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is anticipated during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. By Wednesday, steady to rapid weakening is expected. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches, across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area for the next few hours. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Hurricane Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 11
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 240 WTPZ21 KNHC 012031 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.7W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 90SE 75SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.7W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.5N 107.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.4N 110.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.3N 112.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.9N 114.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 24.0N 117.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 106.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS
Hurricane Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 11
Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 280 WTPZ41 KNHC 012032 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 Flossie continues to intensify this afternoon, with deep cold convection wrapping around the eyewall. GOES satellite visible imagery shows an eye has been trying to clear out and warm throughout the day. The latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are between 90-95 kt. Based on the latest trends and these estimates, the initial intensity is set to 95 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is 300/9 kt. A general west-northwest to northwestward motion is forecast over the next few days as Flossie moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. As the system begins to weaken, a more westward motion is anticipated as the storm is steered by the low-level wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast track lies near the previous, which is near the HCCA corrected consensus. Flossie will remain in a favorable environment, with warm SSTs, plentiful moisture, and weak wind shear for the next 12-24 hours. Along the forecast track the system will be moving into increasingly cooler SSTs and drier air in about 24 h. The latest NHC forecast is for some additional strengthening in the short term, which is above all available guidance. Afterwards, Flossie is expected to rapidly weaken, with the system becoming post-tropical by 72 h, and a remnant low by 96 h and dissipated by day 5. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains at the high end of the guidance in the short term, before trending towards the consensus aids as the system weakens. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Outer bands of Hurricane Flossie continue to bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. Localized flash flooding is possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico for the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 17.7N 106.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 18.5N 107.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 20.4N 110.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 21.3N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 04/1800Z 22.9N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 05/1800Z 24.0N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams
Hurricane Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 012032 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 3 76(79) 17(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 20N 110W 50 X 29(29) 48(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 20N 110W 64 X 10(10) 35(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 17(19) 18(37) X(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS
Hurricane Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 23:43:25 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 21:21:33 GMT