Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 100537
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located east of the northern Leeward Islands, and on
newly formed Subtropical Storm Karen, located over the north
Atlantic.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Karen are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Karen are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Summary for Subtropical Storm Karen (AT1/AL112025)
...SUBTROPICAL STORM KAREN FORMS FAR UP IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 3:00 AM GMT Fri Oct 10 the center of Karen was located near 44.5, -33.0 with movement NE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Subtropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 300 AM GMT Fri Oct 10 2025 000 WTNT31 KNHC 100251 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112025 300 AM GMT Fri Oct 10 2025 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM KAREN FORMS FAR UP IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.5N 33.0W ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM NNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 44.5 North, longitude 33.0 West. The storm is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). This motion with some gradual acceleration is forecast over the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, and the system should open up into a trough by this weekend. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Papin
Subtropical Storm Karen Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025 000 WTNT21 KNHC 100250 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112025 0300 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025 SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N 33.0W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N 33.0W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 33.4W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 45.6N 31.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 47.8N 29.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 50.6N 28.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.5N 33.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Subtropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 300 AM GMT Fri Oct 10 2025 000 WTNT41 KNHC 100251 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112025 300 AM GMT Fri Oct 10 2025 Over the last 12-18 hours, NHC has been monitoring a small area of low pressure (AL96) embedded in a much larger upper-level trough, located about 400 n mi to the northwest of the northernmost Azores Islands. The system was originally a frontal low that quickly became occluded early on 8 October. Since that time, the low has been gradually shedding its remaining frontal features as shallow to moderate convection formed near the center. Earlier today, there was a Sentinel-1A Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) pass that indicated the system no longer was attached to frontal boundaries and had a contracted radius of maximum wind of 20 n mi. Since that time, the convective cloud tops have cooled to -50 to -55 C around the center, with a distinct warm spot seen near the center. A recent WSFM microwave pass also indicated a nearly closed cyan ring on the 37-GHz channel. 00 UTC subjective satellite classifications on the system were a ST1.5/25-30 kt from TAFB, and a T3.0/45 kt from SAB. A blend of all of these various data points indicate that the system has made the transition to Subtropical Storm Karen. The initial intensity is set at 40 kt, in agreement with a recently received scatterometer pass which had a peak wind of 38 kt. This also matches the special 02 UTC fix of ST 2.5/35-40 kt received from TAFB. The subtropical storm is moving slowly northeastward, estimated at 050/8 kt. Karen is already well established in the mid-latitude westerlies for being at such a high latitude, and is likely to be caught up by another mid-latitude trough that is digging in from the west. The track guidance in in pretty good agreement on a northeastward motion with a gradual acceleration over the next 24-36 hours, and the NHC track forecast is roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the simple and corrected consensus aids. While Karen has made the transition to a subtropical storm, it still remains fully embedded in a large upper-level low, so large in fact that it has helped the shear over the system remain fairly low and has enabled the convection to coalesce near the center. Very cold upper-level temperatures also appear to be contributing to the convective vigor, allowing cloud tops of -50 C to persist near the center. However, even colder sea-surface temperatures lie ahead of Karen's path, and it seems like the system only has about a day or so before it is quickly overtaken by the next mid-latitude trough. The global models show the small cyclone opening up into a trough by 48 h, and it is also possible the system could become post-tropical before then if it loses its current organized convection. This intensity forecast is in general agreement with the mean of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 44.5N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 45.6N 31.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 47.8N 29.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 50.6N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Subtropical Storm Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025 000
FONT11 KNHC 100251
PWSAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112025
0300 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 44.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Subtropical Storm Karen Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Oct 2025 05:48:34 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Oct 2025 05:48:34 GMT
Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102025)
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM JERRY CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT... As of 2:00 AM AST Fri Oct 10 the center of Jerry was located near 18.5, -62.1 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 11a
Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025 000 WTNT35 KNHC 100545 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 200 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025 ...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM JERRY CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 62.1W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * St. Barthelemy and St. Martin * Sint Maarten * Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next several hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next several hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 62.1 West. Jerry is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). This motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown today, followed by a northward turn tonight into Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will pass to the north of the northern Leeward Islands through this morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but slow strengthening is possible over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and are possible in the watch area this morning. RAINFALL: Through today, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected across the island of Barbuda. Elsewhere across the Leeward and Virgin Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. This rainfall brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in steep terrain. For portions of Puerto Rico, moisture associated with Jerry combined with local orographic effects may result in up to 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated 6 inches possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service storm total rainfall graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater Antilles today and tonight. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 11
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025 000 WTNT25 KNHC 100251 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025 0300 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 61.6W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS....275NE 210SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 61.6W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 61.1W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.7N 62.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.1N 63.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.5N 63.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.1N 62.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.5N 62.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 55NE 55SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.3N 60.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 55NE 55SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 31.8N 57.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 95NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 32.5N 51.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 55SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 130SE 110SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 61.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 10/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 11
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025 657 WTNT45 KNHC 100256 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025 Jerry remains a disheveled tropical storm this evening. Most of the deep convection is displaced to the southeast of the low-level circulation, which continues to run out ahead due to continued northwesterly vertical wind shear. Air Force reconnaissance observations indicate a highly asymmetric wind field, with the peak 850 mb flight level winds of 56 kt in the northeastern quadrant, and very little wind on the western side of the circulation. The flight level winds support lowering the initial intensity to 50 kt this advisory. The surface pressure has been rising as well, with the latest dropsonde data supporting a minimum value of 1005 mb. Jerry appears to finally be moving northwestward now, estimated at 315/15 kt. The track reasoning remains about the same as this afternoon, as Jerry's track should gradually bend more poleward as it moves along the western side of a subtropical ridge. On the forecast track, Jerry is making its closest approach to the Leeward Islands currently, and its asymmetric wind field means that the majority of the stronger winds will stay east of the island chain. Early next week, a faster eastward or east-northeastward motion is forecast in the mid-latitude westerlies. Jerry is expected to pass east of Bermuda in a few days, and given its expected eastward asymmetry, significant impacts still remain unlikely there. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the prior one, and is a rough blend between the slower and further west HCCA guidance and the faster and further east Google DeepMind Mean (GDMI). The tropical storm is struggling mightily against the unfavorable northwesterly vertical winds shear, and its current poor structure also does not bode well for future short-term intensification. After the storm passes the northern Leeward Islands, the vertical wind shear does decrease to 10-15 knots, but given the current structure, it may take some time for the system to recover. Nonetheless, gradual intensification is shown beginning in 36 hours, though the intensity forecast is lower than the previous advisory. Shear increases towards the end of the forecast and sea-surface temperatures decrease as Jerry recurves into the mid-latitude westerlies, and some weakening is shown again in 120 h. This remains a low confidence intensity forecast, and on the high side of the overall guidance envelope. The most significant hazard expected from Jerry over the next few days is heavy rainfall, even after Jerry passes to the north due to its current structure with most of the significant weather to the south and east of the tropical cyclone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and are possible in the watch area this evening through Friday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands, British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Friday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban areas and in steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 18.2N 61.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 19.7N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 22.1N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 24.5N 63.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 27.1N 62.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 29.5N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 31.3N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 31.8N 57.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 32.5N 51.7W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025 000
FONT15 KNHC 100253
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
0300 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 4 X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BARBUDA 34 43 X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
ANTIGUA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Oct 2025 05:51:26 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Oct 2025 03:22:12 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 100531
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Priscilla, located over a hundred miles off the west coast of
Baja California Sur, and on Tropical Storm Raymond, located just off
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Raymond are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Raymond are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
Summary for Tropical Storm Priscilla (EP1/EP162025)
...PRISCILLA STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY... ...SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 09 the center of Priscilla was located near 25.1, -115.0 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tropical Storm Priscilla Public Advisory Number 22
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 09 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 100235 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Priscilla Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 09 2025 ...PRISCILLA STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY... ...SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 115.0W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 115.0 West. Priscilla is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is expected later tonight through Friday. A turn toward the northeast is expected Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Priscilla is expected to remain offshore of the coast of Baja California Sur, and dissipate by Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, with Priscilla expected to become a post-tropical remnant low on Friday and dissipate by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: As Priscilla moves offshore of the west coast of Baja California, up to an inch of rain is expected across the Baja California peninsula. For the southwestern United States, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with local storm total maxima to 6 inches, are expected across portions of central and northern Arizona, southern Utah, and southwest Colorado through Saturday. Flash flooding is likely in portions of central Arizona, with scattered areas of flash flooding expected across the remainder of Arizona, southern Utah, southwest Colorado, and far northwest New Mexico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, in addition to some coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
Tropical Storm Priscilla Forecast Advisory Number 22
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025 249 WTPZ21 KNHC 100235 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025 0300 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 115.0W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 90SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 115.0W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 114.9W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.8N 115.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.4N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.8N 114.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 115.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
Tropical Storm Priscilla Forecast Discussion Number 22
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 09 2025 004 WTPZ41 KNHC 100236 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Priscilla Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 09 2025 Priscilla has proven to be a resilient tropical cyclone this evening, despite moving over cool waters near 24C. Since the previous advisory, the system has maintained a well-defined curved band that wraps more than halfway around the center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 2.5/35 kt and 3.5/55 kt, respectively. Based on a blend of these data, along with the large area of 40-kt winds noted in a scatterometer pass earlier today and some improvement in the cyclone’s structure, the initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt. Priscilla is moving north-northwest, or 345 degrees, at 7 kt. A turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed are expected tonight through Friday as the cyclone moves between a longwave trough to its northwest and a mid- to upper-level ridge over Texas and northern Mexico. A turn toward the northeast is forecast after 24 hours as the system becomes shallower and increasingly steered by the low-level flow. The updated NHC track forecast lies close to a blend of the previous advisory and the multi-model consensus aids. Priscilla will be moving over progressively cooler waters and into a drier mid-level environment during the next day or so, while also encountering increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. These factors should result in steady weakening. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF indicates that Priscilla will lose its deep convection within about 12 hours, with both models showing the system degenerating into a trough by 48 hours, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Priscilla to become a post-tropical remnant low within 24 hours, with dissipation expected by 48 hours. Remnant moisture associated with Priscilla remains the primary hazard across portions of southwestern United States. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely into the weekend over parts of central Arizona, with scattered areas of flash flooding possible across the remainder of Arizona, southern Utah, southwestern Colorado, and far northwestern New Mexico. Please monitor forecasts and updates from local National Weather Service offices in the southwest U.S. at weather.gov and from the Weather Prediction Center at wpc.ncep.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 25.1N 115.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 25.8N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 26.4N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1200Z 26.8N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
Tropical Storm Priscilla Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025 041
FOPZ11 KNHC 100236
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
0300 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PUNTA EUGENIA 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
P ABREOJOS 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
25N 115W 34 94 1(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
25N 115W 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
Tropical Storm Priscilla Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Oct 2025 02:39:53 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Oct 2025 03:32:25 GMT
Summary for Tropical Storm Raymond (EP2/EP172025)
...RAYMOND JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH SATURDAY... As of 12:00 AM CST Fri Oct 10 the center of Raymond was located near 17.0, -102.8 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tropical Storm Raymond Public Advisory Number 3a
Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Oct 10 2025 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 100550 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Raymond Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025 1200 AM CST Fri Oct 10 2025 ...RAYMOND JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 102.8W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 102.8 West. Raymond is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this morning. A turn toward the northwest is expected this evening, followed by a northward turn by early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is expected to move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico through today and then approach southern Baja California Sur over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (80 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through today, followed by a weakening trend over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Raymond can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through today. RAINFALL: Outer bands from Raymond will bring heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico through Saturday. Across coastal portions of Guerrero and Michoacán, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with local amounts of 6 inches or more in Michoacán. This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. Across coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and Jalisco, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected. Moisture from Raymond will also bring the potential for additional heavy rainfall over portions of the Southwest U.S. early next week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Raymond, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the storm are expected to spread westward along the southwestern coast of Mexico today and reach southern Baja California Sur on Saturday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Advisory Number 3
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025 541 WTPZ22 KNHC 100242 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025 0300 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 102.6W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 102.6W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 101.9W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.8N 104.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 10SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.5N 107.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.2N 109.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.2N 110.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 25.4N 110.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 102.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 10/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 3
Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Oct 09 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 100242 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025 900 PM CST Thu Oct 09 2025 A couple of recent microwave overpasses indicate that Raymond's cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours. Images show fragmented curved bands surrounding the elongated (SE to NW) surface circulation. The cyclone may be struggling a bit due to the large deep convective complex (-82C cloud tops) located to the northwest of the center, which could be disrupting the cyclone's low-level flow. The subjective and objective technique intensity estimates range from 30 to 45 kt, and a recent UW-CIMSS SATCON analysis estimated the intensity to be 35 kt. Using a blend of these data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. The statistical-dynamical Decay-SHIPS intensity guidance and the global models indicate that Raymond will be battling stiff easterly vertical shear during the next couple of days, which should hamper significant development. Subsequently, only modest strengthening is forecast through Friday. Afterward, an increasingly hostile thermodynamic environment should result in a weakening trend through the period. Accordingly, Raymond is expected to degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday while emerging over the Gulf of California, and ultimately opening up into a trough by early next week. The NHC intensity forecast is based on a close agreement of the FSSE, HCCA, and IVCN intensity aids. Raymond's center has been difficult to find this evening, and the initial motion is an estimated west-northwestward heading, or 290/13 kt. A mid-tropospheric high, anchored over northern Mexico, should steer Raymond toward the west-northwest to northwest, while paralleling and remaining just offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico, through Friday evening. Afterward, Raymond is forecast to turn north-northwestward, then northward in response to an amplifying mid-latitude trough moving over the southwestern United States. The various consensus models and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean were used as a basis for the official track forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through late Friday. Interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of the system. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal sections of southwestern Mexico through Saturday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 16.7N 102.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 17.8N 104.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 19.5N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 21.2N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 23.2N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 25.4N 110.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tropical Storm Raymond Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025 537
FOPZ12 KNHC 100242
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
0300 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
MANZANILLO 34 16 8(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Raymond Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Oct 2025 05:54:07 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Oct 2025 03:37:34 GMT