Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 302319
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Near the Southeastern U.S.:
A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast
U.S. coast late this week. An area of low pressure could develop
from the weakening front by the weekend over the Atlantic waters
off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf.
Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur
thereafter as the low moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Bucci
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 01 Jul 2025 01:30:07 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302317
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin a couple of
hundred miles offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.
South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
offshore of southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
Summary for Tropical Storm Flossie (EP1/EP062025)
...FLOSSIE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 6:00 PM CST Mon Jun 30 the center of Flossie was located near 16.4, -103.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tropical Storm Flossie Public Advisory Number 7a
Issued at 600 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 180 WTPZ31 KNHC 302356 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 600 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 ...FLOSSIE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 103.9W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 103.9 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwest to west-northwest motion should continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, tonight through Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema
Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 7
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 073 WTPZ21 KNHC 302040 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.6W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.6W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.2W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.0N 105.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.9N 106.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.8N 108.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.0N 111.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 45SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 22.9N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 24.9N 114.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 103.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 7
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 473 WTPZ41 KNHC 302041 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 Flossie's satellite presentation has continued to improve throughout the day, with convective cold cloud tops near -80C over the low-level center, and well-defined curve banding features. An earlier scatterometer pass around 1629 UTC showed a peak wind of 47 kt, and helped to refine the current tropical-storm-force wind radii. Latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 45 to 55 kt, including a T/3.5 from TAFB. Given the satellite trends, the intensity is set to 55 kt closes to UW-CIMSS ADT and the TAFB Dvorak estimates. The storm is within a favorable environment to continue strengthening, current SSTs are around 29-30C, with low vertical wind shear. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the higher end of the guidance envelope and now has a peak intensity of 90 kt, closest to the regional hurricane HAFS models. In about 48 h, environmental conditions become increasingly more hostile, with drier air and cooler sea surface temperatures, which should induce a steady weakening trend. By day 4, Flossie is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone as the system will struggle to produce convection within the harsh environment. The initial estimated motion is toward the northwest, or 305/10 kt. A northwest to west-northwest motion is expected throughout the forecast period steered by a mid-level ridge. The NHC track forecast was nudged slightly to the left and lies closest to the HCCA corrected consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie should bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in steep terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico, later today through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 16.2N 103.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 17.0N 105.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 17.9N 106.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 18.8N 108.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 21.0N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 22.9N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1800Z 24.9N 114.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 124
FOPZ11 KNHC 302040
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 10(21) 1(22) X(22)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 8(17) 1(18) X(18)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 3( 5) 9(14) 5(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAN BLAS 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
15N 105W 34 10 3(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
MANZANILLO 34 12 13(25) 3(28) 1(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30)
L CARDENAS 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
20N 110W 34 X 4( 4) 25(29) 42(71) 16(87) X(87) X(87)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 19(48) X(48) X(48)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 14(27) X(27) X(27)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 24(37) 11(48) X(48) X(48)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 23:57:52 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 21:22:18 GMT