Tropical Weather



Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121104
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 12 Jul 2020 15:39:32 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121104
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles west of the southern 
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A small low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south 
of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized shower 
and thunderstorm activity. Although upper-level winds are currently 
only marginally conducive for the development of a tropical cyclone, 
environmental conditions are likely to become more favorable for the 
formation of a tropical depression during the next couple of days 
while the system moves quickly west-northwestward to westward, well 
south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)

...CRISTINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY...
 As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 12
 the center of Cristina was located near 20.7, -124.4
 with movement W at 13 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 24

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 121432
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020
 
...CRISTINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 124.4W
ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 124.4 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general 
motion is expected to continue for the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Cristina 
is expected to become a tropical depression by tonight, and  
degenerate into a remnant low on Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 24

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020  

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 121432
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052020
1500 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 124.4W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 124.4W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 123.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.9N 126.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.3N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.9N 131.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.4N 133.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.8N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 23.3N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 124.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 24

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020  

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 121434
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020
 
Cristina's convective pattern continues to rapidly erode with only 
a small patch of moderate convection remaining in the northeastern 
quadrant. Based on overnight scatterometer winds of 39 kt and the 
significant decrease in convection since that time, it is assumed 
that additional vortex spindown has occurred over 23 deg C water, 
and the initial intensity is therefore decreased to 35 kt, which is 
also supported by a blend of the latest CI-satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Cristina is moving westward or 280/11 kt. There are no significant 
changes to the previous forecast track or rationale. The latest NHC 
model guidance remains tightly packed about the previous forecast 
track, with Cristina expected to continue in a general westerly 
direction until dissipation occurs in 72-96 h over the extreme 
eastern portion of the Central Pacific basin.
 
Cristina should continue to spin down as the cyclone moves over 
near 22 deg C SSTs, becoming a remnant low in about 24 hours. It is 
possible that Cristina could degenerate into an open wave sooner 
than currently forecast due to the abundance of dry, stable air 
that the cyclone will be ingesting. The new NHC intensity forecast 
is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the IVCN 
intensity consensus model.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/1500Z 20.7N 124.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 20.9N 126.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 21.3N 128.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  14/0000Z 21.9N 131.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/1200Z 22.4N 133.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  15/0000Z 22.8N 136.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/1200Z 23.3N 139.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020                                              

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 121432
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052020               
1500 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 130W       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics

Tropical Storm Cristina 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2020 14:35:43 GMT

Tropical Storm Cristina 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2020 15:24:40 GMT