Tropical Weather
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
745 ABNT20 KNHC 282316 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Ian, located inland over southwestern Florida and on Tropical Depression Eleven, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde islands. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112022)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOT FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR LONG... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 28 the center of Eleven was located near 17.2, -35.6 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 3
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022 000 WTNT31 KNHC 290231 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOT FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR LONG... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 35.6W ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 35.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a general northwest to north-northwest motion is expected until the depression dissipates in a few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 3
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 000 WTNT21 KNHC 290231 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112022 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 35.6W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 35.6W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 35.2W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.6N 36.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.7N 38.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.1N 39.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 35.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 3
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022 000 WTNT41 KNHC 290232 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022 There's been little change of note with the depression this evening. All of its deep convection is displaced well to the northeast of its center of circulation. In the absence of recent ASCAT data, the intensity is based on the subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB which suggest an intensity of 25-30 kt. Conservatively the advisory intensity was held at 30 kt, but this may be generous. There was a slight westward adjustment to the position of the depression at 00Z, which resulted in an adjustment of the track forecast in that direction. Otherwise there's no change to any thinking behind the forecast. The depression should continue heading generally northwestward or north-northwestward for a day or two. The environment around the cyclone is forecast to quickly get very hostile, which should prevent strengthening and should cause it to dissipate within a few days, as indicated by all dynamical models. The NHC track and intensity forecasts remain near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 17.2N 35.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 18.6N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 20.7N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 23.1N 39.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 26.0N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022
000
FONT11 KNHC 290232
PWSAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112022
0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 02:33:11 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 02:33:12 GMT
Summary for Hurricane Ian (AT4/AL092022)
...10 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE... ...IAN CONTINUING TO BATTER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING... As of 10:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 the center of Ian was located near 27.4, -81.5 with movement NNE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
Hurricane Ian Public Advisory Number 25A
Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 000 WTNT34 KNHC 282352 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 25A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...IAN CONTINUING TO BATTER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.2N 81.7W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Suwannee River southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River * St. Johns River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass to the Anclote River * Flamingo to Sebastian Inlet * Flagler/Volusia County Line to Surf City * Flamingo to Chokoloskee * Lake Okeechobee * Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet * Florida Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Cape Lookout A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the progress of Ian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ian was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 81.7 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move across central Florida tonight and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday. Ian is forecast to turn northward on Friday and approach the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further weakening is expected for the next day or so, but Ian could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it approaches the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A University of Florida Coastal Monitoring Program wind tower near Punta Gorda recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) with a gust to 91 mph (146 km/h). A private weather station in Joshua recently measured a wind gust to 89 mph (143 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... * Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...12-18 ft * Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood...6-10 ft * Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...8-12 ft * Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...5-8 ft * Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6 ft * Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft * Altamaha Sound to South Santee River...3-5 ft * Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft * St. Johns River north of Julington...3-5 ft * St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft * East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft * South Santee River to Little River Inlet...2-4 ft * Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft * East of Little River Inlet to Cape Lookout...1-3 ft * Dry Tortugas and Florida Keys...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely near the core of Ian. Hurricane conditions are ongoing within the Hurricane Warning area now and will slowly spread northeastward through the night. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the east coast of Florida in the Hurricane Warning area starting early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Thursday through late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are occuring in parts of the warning area on the east coast of Florida and should spread northward through the northeast Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area starting on Friday. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall: * Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches. * Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 20 inches, with local maxima up to 30 inches. * Coastal Georgia and Lowcountry of South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12 inches. * Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima of 8 inches across western North Carolina Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash and urban flooding, with major to record flooding along rivers, is expected to continue across central Florida. Widespread considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across portions of northeast Florida, southeastern Georgia, and eastern South Carolina later this week through the weekend. Locally considerable flash flooding, urban, and river flooding is possible this weekend across portions of the southern Appalachians with limited flooding possible across portions of southern Mid-Atlantic. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening into tonight across east central Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci/D. Zelinsky
Hurricane Ian Forecast Advisory Number 25
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022 000 WTNT24 KNHC 282057 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SURF CITY...NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT...NORTH CAROLINA. THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE LOWER KEYS AND THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FOR FLORIDA BAY HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY * SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO * TAMPA BAY * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER * ST. JOHNS RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER * FLAMINGO TO SEBASTIAN INLET * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO SURF CITY * FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET * FLORIDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 82.0W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......130NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 240SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 82.0W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 82.4W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.8N 81.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 130SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.8N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...360NE 130SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.0N 80.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. 34 KT...320NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.9N 80.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...210NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.0N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.0N 81.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 82.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Ian Forecast Discussion Number 25
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 000 WTNT44 KNHC 282058 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft provided the last fix on Ian just before the hurricane made landfall at Cayo Costa, Florida, with the landfall time near at 305 pm EDT. The minimum pressure had risen to about 940 mb at landfall, suggesting that the winds had come down slightly, and the landfall intensity was estimated near 130 kt. While there hasn't been much in situ data recently, satellite images show that the eye has become more cloud filled, and Tampa Doppler radar data is indicating a gradual reduction in winds. The initial intensity is set to 120 kt on this advisory. Further weakening is forecast while Ian moves over central Florida during the next day and emerges into the western Atlantic later on Thursday. While there is a lot of vertical wind shear in the environment there, a favorable trough interaction from a trough in the southern United States is expected to counteract the shear, resulting in Ian staying a strong tropical storm through landfall on the southeast U.S. coast. Little change was made to the intensity forecast, which is near or somewhat above the consensus guidance. The hurricane is moving to the north-northeast at about 8 kt. The aforementioned trough is likely to cause Ian to turn northward over the western Atlantic and to the north-northwest by the weekend. Model guidance is just a bit faster to the north-northeast than the last cycle, and the new forecast is nudged in that direction. The trough will probably cause Ian to transition to an extratropical cyclone in a few days over the southeastern United States, and this new forecast reflects this likelihood. Key Messages: 1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 18 feet above ground level along with destructive waves is ongoing along the southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor. 2. Catastrophic wind damage is occurring along the southwestern coast of Florida in areas near the eyewall of Ian. Hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland to central Florida near the core of Ian through early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected along the east-central Florida coast overnight through early Thursday. 3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flooding, with major to record river flooding, are expected to continue across portions of central Florida with considerable flooding in northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina. 4. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge on Thursday and Friday along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, with hurricane conditions possible. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 26.9N 82.0W 120 KT 140 MPH...INLAND 12H 29/0600Z 27.8N 81.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1800Z 28.8N 81.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/0600Z 30.0N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 30/1800Z 31.9N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 01/0600Z 34.0N 81.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1800Z 36.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Hurricane Ian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022
000
FONT14 KNHC 282057
PWSAT4
HURRICANE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120
KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) X(21) X(21)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17)
FLORENCE SC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 21(31) X(31) X(31)
FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 22(32) X(32) X(32)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 8(23) X(23) X(23)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 15(20) 9(29) X(29) X(29)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 15(19) 16(35) X(35) X(35)
GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 31(45) 9(54) X(54) X(54)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 2 5( 7) 13(20) 30(50) 8(58) X(58) X(58)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15)
BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 13(22) X(22) X(22)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAVANNAH GA 34 3 4( 7) 8(15) 19(34) 6(40) X(40) X(40)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
KINGS BAY GA 34 4 35(39) 19(58) 9(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68)
KINGS BAY GA 50 X 5( 5) 10(15) 4(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20)
KINGS BAY GA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
WAYCROSS GA 34 3 9(12) 5(17) 3(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 5 43(48) 20(68) 6(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 1 11(12) 14(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
JACKSONVILLE 34 5 37(42) 13(55) 3(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59)
JACKSONVILLE 50 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 32 36(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 2 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 70 23(93) 3(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 5 51(56) 5(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 1 30(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
THE VILLAGES 34 92 5(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
THE VILLAGES 50 13 41(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
THE VILLAGES 64 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ORLANDO FL 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ORLANDO FL 50 48 37(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86)
ORLANDO FL 64 15 41(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 96 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 16 39(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 3 33(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
PATRICK AFB 34 96 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PATRICK AFB 50 17 39(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
PATRICK AFB 64 3 33(36) X(36) X(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37)
FT PIERCE FL 34 95 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
FT PIERCE FL 50 7 16(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
FT PIERCE FL 64 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
W PALM BEACH 34 87 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
W PALM BEACH 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 68 1(69) X(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
MIAMI FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 28 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
MARATHON FL 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
KEY WEST FL 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NAPLES FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NAPLES FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FT MYERS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FT MYERS FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FT MYERS FL 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
VENICE FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
VENICE FL 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
TAMPA FL 50 83 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
TAMPA FL 64 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 52 12(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ST MARKS FL 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
APALACHICOLA 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 5 12(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Ian Update Statement
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 000 WTNT64 KNHC 290156 TCUAT4 Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1000 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...10 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE... ...IAN CONTINUING TO BATTER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING... Tropical storm conditions are occurring over a wide swath of the Florida peninsula. An automated station at the Airglades Airport, located west of Lake Okeechobee recently reported sustained winds of 42 mph (68 km/h) with a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h). A WeatherFlow station located at Skyway Beach in St. Petersburg, Florida recently measured sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to 51 mph (82 km/h). A WeatherFlow station located at Melbourne Beach Barrier Island Sanctuary recently observed sustained winds of 42 mph (68 km/h) with a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 81.5W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM S OF ORLANDO FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES $$ Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky
Hurricane Ian Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 23:53:17 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 21:22:47 GMT
Hurricane Ian Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 21:56:07 GMT
Hurricane Ian Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 22:49:29 GMT
Hurricane Ian Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 20:58:32 GMT
Local Statement for Wilmington, NC
Issued at 518 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Local Statement for Columbia, SC
Issued at 519 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Local Statement for Charleston, SC
Issued at 522 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL
Issued at 530 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 /430 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022/
Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC
Issued at 536 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Local Statement for Jacksonville, FL
Issued at 538 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Local Statement for Key West, FL
Issued at 607 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Local Statement for Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued at 608 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Local Statement for Melbourne, FL
Issued at 616 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Local Statement for Miami, FL
Issued at 639 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 282311 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Wed Sep 28 2022 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: South of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure south of the southern coast of Mexico continue to show signs of organization. Further development is anticipated and a tropical depression is likely to form as soon as tonight. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward off the coast of southwestern Mexico for the next couple of days, and then could turn northward over the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Western East Pacific: The remnants of Newton are located about 1,200 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low has weakened today. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low has also decreased and become less organized during the past several hours. Some slight development is still possible tonight or tomorrow while the system moves slowly westward over the far western portion of the eastern North Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Summary for Tropical Depression Sixteen-E (EP1/EP162022)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 the center of Sixteen-E was located near 14.4, -103.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 290240 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 103.7W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 103.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A continued west-northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. The system is forecast to slow down and turn toward the north or north-northeast over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tomorrow and could reach hurricane strength by the end of the week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 290240 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 103.7W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 103.7W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 103.2W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.1N 105.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.1N 107.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.8N 108.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.5N 108.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.7N 107.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 23.0N 107.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 25.0N 106.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 103.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290240 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 The area of low pressure located south of the southwestern coast of Mexico has steadily gained organization throughout the day. Recent microwave imagery indicated the formation of convective banding and an earlier partial ASCAT pass suggested the system likely has a well-defined center. Recent Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both 2.0, another sign that the system has become better organized. Collectively these data support classifying the system as a tropical cyclone, and advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Sixteen. For the next 48 to 60 h, the forecast is fairly straightforward with high confidence. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 kt, and that general motion should continue as the system is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening, and all of the intensity models suggest it will become a tropical storm quickly, and continue strengthening to hurricane intensity a day or two after that. The main concern with the forecast is what happens beyond 60 h, when confidence in the forecast decreases considerably. There is a clear bifurcation in the track guidance at that point that appears to be linked to the intensity and vertical extent of the cyclone. If the cyclone is relatively deep at that point, which is shown by all of the normally reliable intensity guidance, it will likely turn northward or north-northeastward as it interacts with a mid- to upper-level trough. However, some models like the ECMWF forecast a shallower cyclone that takes a drastically different path slowly westward, steered primarily by lower-level winds. The result is a massive spread in the track guidance, with most of the consensus aids caught somewhat between those two scenarios. Although the ECMWF solution can not be dismissed entirely, the more skillful intensity guidance (supported by the favorable environment) suggest that the eastern solution toward Mexico may be more likely. The NHC forecast therefore favors the northeastern solution and shows the cyclone moving toward the coast of Mexico by 72-96 h. Strong upper-level winds associated with the aforementioned trough and a drier surrounding environment should cause the cyclone to weaken as it moves closer to the coast, and it will likely quickly dissipate if it moves inland. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus throughout the forecast, except at 96 h to reflect that the official forecast position is still over water at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 14.4N 103.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 15.1N 105.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 16.1N 107.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 16.8N 108.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 17.5N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 18.5N 108.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 19.7N 107.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 23.0N 107.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 25.0N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 290240
PWSEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 3(23)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 4(24)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17)
CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 23(26) 26(52) 2(54)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 1(20)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 26(33) 7(40)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10)
MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15)
SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 1(15)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
15N 105W 34 48 7(55) X(55) 1(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57)
15N 105W 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10)
MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 11(16) 3(19) X(19)
L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20)
20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 23(33) 5(38) X(38)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 13(25) 2(27) 1(28)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 02:41:58 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 02:41:58 GMT