Tropical Weather


Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

713 
ABNT20 KNHC 012343
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern U.S.:
An area of low pressure could develop near the southeast U.S.
Atlantic or Gulf coasts over the weekend along a weakening front.
Although significant development is not anticipated, a tropical or
subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or
early next week while the system drifts and moves little. Regardless
of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the
southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 02 Jul 2025 00:00:10 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012337
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jul 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin, a couple hundred
miles offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
offshore of southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

Summary for Hurricane Flossie (EP1/EP062025)

...FLOSSIE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 5:00 PM MST Tue Jul 01 the center of Flossie was located near 17.9, -107.1 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Hurricane Flossie Public Advisory Number 11a

Issued at 500 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 473 
WTPZ31 KNHC 012343
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
500 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025
 
...FLOSSIE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN 
COAST OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 107.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Flossie.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 107.1 West. Flossie is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwest
to northwest motion is anticipated during the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight.  By 
Wednesday, steady to rapid weakening is expected.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches,
across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima,
and Jalisco into Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to localized
flash flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area for the next few hours.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

Hurricane Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 11

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 240 
WTPZ21 KNHC 012031
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062025
2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.7W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE  90SE  75SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.7W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.5N 107.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.4N 110.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.3N 112.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.9N 114.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 24.0N 117.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 106.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS

Hurricane Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 11

Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 280 
WTPZ41 KNHC 012032
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
200 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025
 
Flossie continues to intensify this afternoon, with deep cold
convection wrapping around the eyewall. GOES satellite visible
imagery shows an eye has been trying to clear out and warm
throughout the day. The latest subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates are between 90-95 kt. Based on the latest trends
and these estimates, the initial intensity is set to 95 kt for this
advisory.
 
The initial motion is 300/9 kt. A general west-northwest to
northwestward motion is forecast over the next few days as Flossie
moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. As the system
begins to weaken, a more westward motion is anticipated as the storm
is steered by the low-level wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast
track lies near the previous, which is near the HCCA corrected
consensus.
 
Flossie will remain in a favorable environment, with warm SSTs, 
plentiful moisture, and weak wind shear for the next 12-24 hours. 
Along the forecast track the system will be moving into increasingly 
cooler SSTs and drier air in about 24 h. The latest NHC forecast is 
for some additional strengthening in the short term, which is above 
all available guidance. Afterwards, Flossie is expected to rapidly 
weaken, with the system becoming post-tropical by 72 h, and a 
remnant low by 96 h and dissipated by day 5. The latest NHC 
intensity forecast remains at the high end of the guidance in the 
short term, before trending towards the consensus aids as the system 
weakens.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Outer bands of Hurricane Flossie continue to bring locally heavy
rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán,
Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. Localized flash flooding is
possible.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico for the next few
hours.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 17.7N 106.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 18.5N 107.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 20.4N 110.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 21.3N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 22.1N 113.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  04/1800Z 22.9N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  05/1800Z 24.0N 117.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams

Hurricane Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 000
FOPZ11 KNHC 012032
PWSEP1
                                                                    
HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062025               
2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  1   3( 4)   8(12)   4(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  1   3( 4)   5( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN BLAS       34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MANZANILLO     34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 110W       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 110W       34  3  76(79)  17(96)   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
20N 110W       50  X  29(29)  48(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
20N 110W       64  X  10(10)  35(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  2  17(19)  18(37)   X(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS

Hurricane Flossie Graphics

Hurricane Flossie 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 23:43:25 GMT

Hurricane Flossie 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 21:21:33 GMT