Tropical Weather
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 121104 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Stewart
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 12 Jul 2020 15:39:32 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 121104 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A small low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Although upper-level winds are currently only marginally conducive for the development of a tropical cyclone, environmental conditions are likely to become more favorable for the formation of a tropical depression during the next couple of days while the system moves quickly west-northwestward to westward, well south of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
...CRISTINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 the center of Cristina was located near 20.7, -124.4 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 24
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 121432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 ...CRISTINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 124.4W ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 124.4 West. Cristina is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Cristina is expected to become a tropical depression by tonight, and degenerate into a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 24
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 121432 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 1500 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 124.4W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 124.4W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 123.8W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.9N 126.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.3N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.9N 131.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.4N 133.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.8N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 23.3N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 124.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 24
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 121434 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Cristina's convective pattern continues to rapidly erode with only a small patch of moderate convection remaining in the northeastern quadrant. Based on overnight scatterometer winds of 39 kt and the significant decrease in convection since that time, it is assumed that additional vortex spindown has occurred over 23 deg C water, and the initial intensity is therefore decreased to 35 kt, which is also supported by a blend of the latest CI-satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Cristina is moving westward or 280/11 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or rationale. The latest NHC model guidance remains tightly packed about the previous forecast track, with Cristina expected to continue in a general westerly direction until dissipation occurs in 72-96 h over the extreme eastern portion of the Central Pacific basin. Cristina should continue to spin down as the cyclone moves over near 22 deg C SSTs, becoming a remnant low in about 24 hours. It is possible that Cristina could degenerate into an open wave sooner than currently forecast due to the abundance of dry, stable air that the cyclone will be ingesting. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the IVCN intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 20.7N 124.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 20.9N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 21.3N 128.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0000Z 21.9N 131.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1200Z 22.4N 133.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/0000Z 22.8N 136.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1200Z 23.3N 139.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020
000
FOPZ15 KNHC 121432
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
1500 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2020 14:35:43 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2020 15:24:40 GMT