Forecast Discussion


692
FXUS64 KMEG 092354
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
554 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 553 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

- Dry and well above normal temperatures will be in place through
  Tuesday evening.

- Rain chances return Tuesday night with showers becoming more
  widespread through midday Wednesday.

- A brief lull in precipitation will occur on Thursday before
  showers and thunderstorms return Friday and last through the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Sunday)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Spring-like conditions are underway as upper level ridging builds
into the Mid-South. Given the NBM`s recent cold bias, along with
persistent sunshine today, opted to raise afternoon highs a few
degrees. Expect temperatures to reach the upper 60s to low 70s
today. Above average temperatures will persist into Tuesday.

A weak shortwave and attendant cold front will trek towards the
Mid-South on Tuesday. Ahead of this boundary, moisture will
increase across the region with dewpoints reaching the upper 50s
and low 60s. Rain chances return overnight with showers becoming
more widespread through midday Wednesday. This system will bring
low rainfall totals to the area with amounts remaining less than
half an inch. Showers will exit the area Wednesday evening,
allowing an upper level ridge to slide into the area. A
disturbance will traverse the outer periphery of this ridge on
Friday, bringing shower and thunderstorm chances back into the
forecast.

The upcoming weekend will remain unsettled as an upper level low
develops over Texas. Large model spread continues to be present
in regards to this system and its forward progression. The GEFS
favors a slower moving system with near-constant rain and
thunderstorms through Sunday evening. As a result, storm total
rainfall tops out at just over 2 inches. The ENS continues to
depict a faster moving system that exits the area by Sunday
morning. Associated rain totals are lower than the GEFS, around
1.75 inches. Overall LREF probabilities for greater than 2 inches
of rain falling by Sunday evening, only a 30% chance exists.
However, the NBM came in showing a wide swath of 3" + for this
same timeframe. Given relatively low probabilities for greater
than 2" of rain this weekend, lowered QPF to align with ensemble
guidance. Regardless of which system verifies, the upcoming
weekend will be wet and unsettled. Luckily, the beginning of next
week looks to dry out as this system exits the Mid-South.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

South/southwest winds will begin to pick up to 10 kts ahead of a
cold front beginning around 09Z. As the pressure gradient
tightens ahead of this front, LLWS around 35 kts is expected at
JBR. Predominantly VFR conditions will prevail across
JBR/MEM/MKL. Some guidance does want to bring in a brief MVFR
deck at aforementioned sites shortly after sunrise, however,
confidence in guidance was not high enough to prevail in TAF. At
TUP, however, MVFR conditions are expected for a few hours
overnight. Fog is also expected at both JBR/TUP for a few hours
overnight, ahead of increased wind speeds. Southwest winds will
begin to gust up to 25 kts across all terminals beginning around
15Z, aided by the aforementioned front. Gusts should drop out
around 00Z. -SHRA and MVFR conditions are expected to begin
impacting MEM around 03Z tomorrow, however, confidence was only
high enough for a PROB30 this far out in time.

AEH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low this period as MinRH stays above
50 percent. Wetting rain chances return Tuesday night, lasting
through Wednesday. Additional rain chances return by the end of
the week.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...AEH