Forecast Discussion
223 FXUS64 KMEG 030503 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1103 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1103 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 - Showers will leave the region by early Saturday morning with areas of patchy drizzle or fog. - A cold front will bring a brief cooldown to near-normal temperatures over the weekend. - Well-above-normal temperatures will return by the start of next week with highs in the 60s to low 70s. Rain chances begin to increase again late Wednesday and into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1103 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 Rain is still falling across portions of West Tennessee and northeast Mississippi as an upper low moves across the region. Rain is expected to exit to our east later tonight as the upper low pulls favorable dynamics along with it. That being said, profiles are forecast to remain moist from 850 mb and below, particularly in regions that saw rain today, which could bring some drizzle for the first few hours of the forecast period. Low winds beneath the surface low across northeast Mississippi and high surface moisture could allow for fog in these areas this morning, but current forecasts show only patchy coverage. Therefore, we don`t think a dense fog advisory will be needed at this time, but trends will be monitored in the coming hours for any changes. High pressure to our north will take over the forecast Saturday as the upper and surface lows move completely out of the area. Temperatures will fall as a result Saturday night with lows on Sunday morning around freezing. Similarly, highs are forecast to remain in the 40s and 50s. Temperatures quickly warm into next week as an upper ridge moves east across the CONUS, anchoring itself to the central Plains by Monday and Tuesday. Return flow will be restored during this time. Temperatures are therefore expected to rise into the 50s/60s Monday and the 60s/70s Tuesday. The ridge will remain through the rest of the week with similar conditions. As the ridge amplifies across the eastern CONUS, troughing will follow suit to its west across the Rockies. Ensembles have converged on this solution and have a broad belt of southwesterly flow across the southern Plains and into the Midwest for several days. Moisture advection will then bring 60+ F dew points back to the Mid-South by Wednesday and will be further increased in quality in the following days. At the same time, ensembles are also throwing multiple shortwaves through the broader southwesterly jet, with attendant surface lows over the central Plains and Mid-West. Therefore, models are beginning to bring multiple frontal systems into the moisture that will be pooling across the Mid-South, bringing our next chances for rain and, potentially, convection. LREF joint probabilities for over 500 J/kg MUCAPE and 30 knots of bulk shear are still low (10% - 20%), which suggests either low convective coverage or model uncertainties within ensemble guidance. Regardless, rain chances are expected to increase through the end of next week with a low (< 30%) of thunderstorms at this time. Additionally, rainfall amounts through Saturday are forecast to be in the .75" - 1.5" range, but are expected to change in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1103 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 Patchy drizzle and BCFG should not be heavy enough to reduce visibility. Medium confidence (30-40%) of IFR to MVFR cigs through early to mid-afternoon Saturday as a mid-level disturbance shifts into north Alabama and a positively-tilted trough approaches from the west. The trough will shift east of the Mississippi River Valley tomorrow afternoon resulting in a change to VFR conditions. North winds around 5-10 kts will prevail. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1103 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 Fire weather concerns will be limited through the weekend as minimum relative humidity values will be >=50%, aided by today`s wetting rainfall. A cold front will bring cooler temperatures through Sunday. 20 ft winds will remain light through the weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...JDS