Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS64 KMEG 182146 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 346 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018 .DISCUSSION... Latest surface analysis places an area of low pressure over Little Rock, Arkansas with a cold front extending northeast across Jonesboro, Arkansas and northwest up into Paris, Tennessee. North of the front, temperatures are in the 40s with low stratus and patchy fog. South of the front, temperatures are in the mid to upper 60s under partly sunny skies. Just a couple weak radar echoes on KNQA across southeast Arkansas at this hour. The aforementioned front is expected to stall near Memphis and Jackson, Tennessee over the next hour or so as the low pressure system lifts northeast. This will keep main shower activity along and just west of the river through late this evening. As the low lifts overnight, expect light rain to overspread the rest of the Mid-South. Models are now showing a shortwave, currently over the Oklahoma Panhandle, pivoting through the Mid-South tomorrow afternoon. This will enhance lift behind the front and squeeze out the remaining moisture, mainly over north Mississippi. Latest QPF values are still around one tenth of an inch, with up to a quarter of an inch over north Mississippi. The wave and cold front will exit the region by late tomorrow night. Surface high pressure will build into the Mid-South on Tuesday behind a dry reinforcing front. Sunshine will return to the entire Mid-South during the day, but decent cold air advection will keep temperatures down in the mid to upper 40s during the day. Temperatures will drop quickly after sunset with lows near or below freezing by Wednesday morning. Slightly warmer conditions can be expected during the day on Wednesday, with highs in the low to mid 50s areawide. High pressure will shift east by Thursday with winds kicking around to the south. Thanksgiving Day looks nice with highs around 60 degrees and light southerly winds. A rather potent shortwave will drop down across the Southern Plains by Friday morning and help push a cold front into the Mid- South Friday night. Models are in reasonable agreement with the timing. Showers will overspread the area by Friday afternoon and push out of the area Saturday morning. Beyond Saturday, the models are still having problems resolving a wave dropping down out of the Pacific Northwest. Went with low end POPS through early next week until models sort out the details. Stay tuned. AC3 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs A cold front was analyzed in the vicinity of JBR-HKA line at 1730Z, moving very slowly southeast, if not stationary. Post- frontal IFR stratus had edged southward down the west side of Crowley`s Ridge earlier this morning, but southward movement had halted when this shallow stable saturated layer encountered deeper low level mixing immediately ahead of the nearly stall-ed front. Despite post frontal winds backing to the northwest this evening, movement should remain slow through the overnight, crossing the MS River around 09Z. Wind fields either side of the front will remain weak, complicating flight category forecasts. At this time, it appears best chance for IFR will occur following post-frontal, pre-sunrise showers. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$