Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KMEG 242005

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
305 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019


Skies are partly cloudy across the forecast area this afternoon
with temperatures from the mid 60s to lower 70s. A few showers
have developed across southwest sections of the forecast area. A
cold front currently extends from central Missouri through eastern
Oklahoma and into northwest Texas.

The cold front will continue to move east tonight and should reach
the western edge of the forecast area around midnight. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front and move
through the forecast area. Some of the thunderstorms could be
severe with large hail and some damaging winds possible.
Temperatures will be on the mild side tonight with lows Monday
morning in the low to mid 50s. The cold front will move out of the
forecast area by Monday afternoon with more showers expected.
Temperatures will be a little cooler on Monday with highs in the
60s to around 70.

High pressure will start to build into the region by Monday night
bringing a period of dry weather from Monday night through
Thursday. Temperatures will be below normal especially Tuesday and
Tuesday night. A few locations in west Tennessee may see
temperatures drop near or below freezing early Wednesday morning.
Temperatures will rebound for Wednesday afternoon and Thursday
with highs approaching 70 degrees on Thursday.

A new storm system will start to develop over the central Plains
on Thursday and Friday before moving rapidly northeast Friday
night. Expect thunderstorms to begin to move into the region by
Thursday night and continuing for much of Friday and Saturday. A
cold front will move through the region Saturday night with rain
ending over the region by next Sunday. Temperatures will turn
colder behind this front as well by next Sunday.



.AVIATION...18z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions should prevail for the remainder of the afternoon.
overnight, cigs may lower to high end MVFR levels as a weak broken
line of showers and thunderstorms moves across the Midsouth.
Showers and storms are expected to be scattered in nature,
especially as the approach MKL and TUP. Will carry on station
rain with vicinity thunder at JBR and MKL but only VCTS at MKL
and TUP. Winds behind the line of storms will shift from the
Northwest and Cigs may lower to IFR levels. JBR and MEM should
see at least MVFR cigs return before 18z. Lower clouds are more
likely to persist at TUP and MKL.