Forecast Discussion
811 FXUS64 KMEG 202321 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 521 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 - Gusty southerly winds are expected today with a high chance (greater than 80 percent) of wind gusts over 30 mph. - A 20 to 30 percent chance of light rain showers will persist starting tonight through Tuesday, but rainfall amounts are expected to remain negligible. - Unseasonably warm temperatures, with highs likely exceeding 70 degrees, are expected for Christmas Day. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Friday) Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 All is mostly calm and clear this afternoon with the exception of gusty southerly winds due to a tight pressure gradient. Things will start to become a bit more active this evening as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest after sunset. A few clouds are already working their way down here along this boundary and will continue to increase in coverage as some showers start up shortly before midnight. Looking at some point soundings around the area, most of the column will be very dry during the time of precip onset. This will create weak, low- topped showers with little to no instability to favor any thunder. This weak cold front will be closely followed by a modified Gulf Low skirting across the southeast CONUS on Sunday afternoon. Its trajectory doesn`t have the same eastward track as normal Gulf Lows; it will most likely get steered by the mean flow almost due north. Either way, its associated warm front will lift north very slowly early next week. This brings another round of weak showers starting Monday and lasting into Tuesday given the very gradual movement of the surface low. Even MUCAPE is less than 200 J/kg per the LREF on Monday evening so current thinking is the convective mode will just be sporadic showers with no organization or thunder. The aforementioned warm front will also aid in sending temperatures well above normal next week. By Wednesday, highs look to be in the 70s almost areawide, which is almost 20 degrees above normal for December 24. However, despite very high departures from normal, we`re still not even close to record territory next week. The record highs on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day are in the upper 70s for Memphis, which is not even in the realm of the 90th percentile for the model data on either of these days. Needless to say, those dreaming of a white Christmas will unfortunately not get their wish. Moving into the long term, the upper level pattern keeps a dominant ridging pattern over the entire central CONUS through next weekend. Things finally start to flatten out towards the New Year, though this leaves enough leeway for a cold front to break through the pattern. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 521 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 A large change in guidance with significantly lower probabilities of MVFR ceilings at the terminals tonight at the 00z issuance. Given the large-scale change in a short period of time, opted to tempo high MVFR/ low VFR ceilings at JBR, MEM and MKL. TUP is the most likely for MVFR ceilings to prevail around 06z. An approaching cold front will keep winds elevated, and occasionally gusty, for the next 24 hours as well as a windshift. By the end of the period, all sites will be VFR with northerly winds around 10kts or less. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 Return flow will increase moisture today and daily rain chances around 20-30% will persist Sunday through Tuesday. Fire danger remains very low through the next week. Very warm conditions are expected next week as upper level high pressure builds in. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...DNM