Forecast Discussion
327 FXUS64 KMEG 121724 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1124 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 - Cool and dry weather is expected to prevail through Tuesday. - There is a medium chance (40-70 percent) of rain showers on Wednesday, with the best chance for locations east of the Mississippi River. - Near to below normal temperatures are expected for the latter half of this week and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 A chilly and sunny day is on tap across the Mid-South after a cold start this morning. Morning lows dipped into the low to upper 20s in areas east of the Mississippi River and the mid 20s to lower 30s west of the Mississippi River. We`ve warmed a bit across the Mid-South with current temperatures in the 40s. As a cool 1034 mb high pressure and northwest flow aloft prevail, afternoon temperatures today will warm into the low 50s. Tomorrow will be much the same as today except it`ll be a little warmer with morning lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s and highs warming into the upper 50s to lower 60s as slightly elevated southwest winds filter in slightly warmer air and overnight radiational cooling won`t be as prominent. Early Wednesday, a pattern change will occur as a positively tilted trough dips down from southern Ontario and into the Great Lakes region. An attendant cold front, extending from this upper low, extending over the eastern Great Lakes region through nearly Texas, will also begin moving across the Mid-South. Ahead of this cold front, precipitation chances will begin to increase early Wednesday morning. As we move through Wednesday, chances will increase and showers will continue to push southeast across our county warning area, greatest chances east of the Mississippi River. Rain chances should diminish, east of our area before temperatures begin to plummet below freezing as dry air quickly filters in. The GEFS has a less than 20% chance of a few flurries along the Tennessee River early Thursday morning. Even if a few flurries are able to filter in, impacts are not expected. Rainfall amounts will be nothing to write home about Wednesday as they only equate to up to a quarter of an inch. Winds will also be elevated Wednesday afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens as this front approaches, especially over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Behind this front, quick moving northwest flow and a much colder, Canadian airmass will build in. Thursday`s high temperatures will struggle to break out of the 30s with morning apparent temperatures dropping into the teens across the entire Mid-South. Friday, temperatures will rebound a bit as upper-level zonal flow builds across the region. As we move into the weekend, the weather pattern becomes unsettled. Ensemble guidance is hinting at another upper-level trough extending down from Ontario and into the southern Great Lakes and northern Ohio River Valley region. This could bring our next shot at precipitation this weekend and into early next workweek. However, we`re still several days out from this next system to iron out the exact details or precipitation types with this system. LREF probabilities are around 20% for a light dusting, though there is a chance that moisture will not be in place for any precipitation to fall. Stay tuned.. AEH && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light winds will increase to south winds between 9-12 kts with a few occasional gusts to around 20 kts on Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 Minimum relative humidity values will remain at or below 40% through much of this week. Wednesday will be an exception when minimum relative humidity values increase above this threshold with our next shot at rainfall with a cold front. Increased 20ft wind speed in the latter half of the week could pose fire weather concerns. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...CJC