Forecast Discussion
447 FXUS64 KMEG 051900 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 200 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 200 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 - Warm and humid weather continues each day, with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s. - Heat headlines may be needed into next week, especially across the delta regions, where heat index values could exceed 105 degrees. - Thunderstorm chances will remain low (less than 20%) through Sunday before increasing again (40%-60%) mainly in the afternoons and evenings into the upcoming work week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Generally a benign weather pattern across the Mid-South this weekend with temperatures currently in the low 90s and dew point temperatures hovering in the upper 60s to low 70s. A few, isolated thunderstorms have developed across northeast Mississippi over the last hour, with CAMs showing the potential for additional cells across the TN River Valley through the afternoon. These thunderstorms will likely be slow movers and dwindle quickly after forming, so not expecting anything other than our pop-up, afternoon summertime thunderstorm routine. Quiet and calm conditions are expected once again overnight, with the potential for some isolated patchy fog near sunrise in fog-prone areas. A rinse and repeat of today does appear likely for most of the day tomorrow, with some increasing cloudiness across our northwest by the afternoon. As a weak shortwave approaches the region, could see thunderstorm chances uptick (20-30%) by the late afternoon to evening hours. Best chances remain across NE AR, MO Bootheel, and far NW TN. As for our temperatures, high temperatures will likely return to the mid 90s, with heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s. Will note, did decide to hold off on a Heat Advisory for now for tomorrow afternoon across the MS and AR delta regions. NBM guidance does have a few locations reaching the 105 mark by the afternoon, but has been overdoing dew point temperatures a bit the past few days. In addition, both LREF and HREF guidance has less than a 20% chance of these locations exceeding 104 degrees for heat indices tomorrow afternoon, leading to low confidence. Will re-evaluate with the overnight forecast package, but greater confidence in the need for heat headlines will not arrive until Monday. By Monday, a general summertime weather pattern is expected through likely the remainder of the week with little upper-level forcing. Thunderstorm chances will increase each afternoon (40% to 60%) with chances dwindling following sunset. With the uptick in moisture, do expect high temperatures to remain closer to normal in the low 90s. Despite the slight downward trend in high temperatures, dew point temps will likely remain in the low to mid 70s. This will likely introduce the need for at least some heat headlines across the Mid-South by Monday and likely continue through at least midweek. Best chance of exceeding our Heat Advisory criteria remains across the delta regions, but will be evaluated on a day to day basis. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into much of this evening with generally light southerly winds. A few showers and isolated storms may develop near the TN River this evening but confidence is too low to mention at any of the taf sites. Light winds may lead to some patchy fog again overnight primarily at MKL/TUP/JBR and have retained MVFR visibility in the latest forecast between 08z and 12z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 No major fire weather concerns through the foreseeable future. MinRH values will remain above 40% with light winds. Thunderstorm chances will increase slowly through the upcoming work week, with less than an inch of rain expected. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...TAB