Forecast Discussion
896 FXUS64 KMEG 060606 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1206 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 - Temperatures will moderate through the weekend, warming to near normal highs in the 50s on Sunday. - A cold front will pass through the Midsouth late Sunday, returning temperatures to below normal Monday. By Wednesday, we`ll be back to the 50s for high temperatures, ahead of a cold front late Thursday. - Other than isolated to scattered showers Sunday afternoon, dry conditions prevail until at least the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Upper air analysis this evening features a longwave trough axis stretching from the Great Lakes Region back through the Southwest United States with a ridge axis along the West Coast. Temperatures are similar if not slightly warmer than Thursday night with late evening temperatures in the 30s as cold air advection and cloud cover has kept temperatures relatively steady. Little if any change is expected in the overall pattern as northwest flow will persist across the eastern half of the U.S. into next week with shortwave troughs rotating through the Mississippi Valley. The first shortwave trough and associated cold front will move through the Mid-South Sunday into Sunday night and another trough by late next week. Both of these troughs are expected to have limited precipitation mitigating the threat of wintry precipitation, especially Sunday night over northwest Tennessee as temperatures drop towards freezing. A couple of days of colder temperatures will follow the mild temperatures with each frontal passage. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Weak warm air advection continues to move across all terminals. This is an ideal setup for low CIGs and potentially dense fog. IFR CIGs and VSBYs were introduced at all sites except for JBR, where drier air still resides. Low CIGs and VSBYs will likely persist through mid morning on Saturday. There is a 40 to 50% chance of both LIFR CIGs and VSBYs developing at MEM, MKL, and TUP over the next couple of hours as winds go calm and the low level moisture remains trapped. Additionally, there is a 20% chance of VLIFR CIGs near daybreak at MEM and TUP. Conditions should begin to improve by Saturday afternoon. Winds will be light from the SW 5 kts or less through the period. Hi-res guidance is hinting at widespread dense fog developing near the end of this period as skies finally clear and winds go calm. AC3 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with MinRH values remaining above 40%. Other than isolated to scattered showers on Sunday, dry conditions are expected to prevail through midweek. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...AC3