Forecast Discussion
610 FXUS64 KMEG 182342 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 642 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026 - A cold front will swing through the Mid-South today, resulting in showers and a few thunderstorms. - Near-normal temperatures will be in place Sunday and Monday with increasing fire weather concerns through Tuesday. - The remainder of the work week will be mostly dry with highs in the low to mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026 A large upper level trough continues to trek across the Upper Mississippi Valley today, ejecting a cold front into the Mid- South. As of 1130 AM, this boundary is pushing through northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Additional showers will continue to form along and ahead of the front as it translates southeast. The 12Z CAMs still show the potential for thunderstorm development over portions of northeast Mississippi this afternoon. This activity will quickly be overtaken by the front, limiting the overall severe weather threat. For the rest of the day, expect intermittent showers and a few rumbles of thunder. Cool and dry air will continue to filter into the Mid-South overnight, leading to temperatures in the 40s by sunrise Sunday. Relative humidity values through Tuesday will drop to the 25 to 30 percent range, creating heightened fire weather concerns. Given recent wetting rains, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is not anticipated for Sunday and Monday. However, conditions on Tuesday appear favorable for fire weather as surface winds exceed 10 mph and dead fuel moisture reaches 10 percent. There is medium confidence that a fire weather product will be needed at this time. Elevated dewpoints return on Wednesday, ending fire weather concerns. The remainder of the work week will be warm and dry with highs climbing into the low to mid 80s on Thursday. Both the GEFS and ENS depict increasing rain chances this upcoming Friday. The precise mechanism driving these precipitation chances varies, but enough confidence exists to forecast a wet end to the week. ANS && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026 Post-frontal CIGs at MEM and MKL are set to improve to VFR, per upstream 23Z METARs at JBR, HKA and AWM. Through 01Z or 02Zm patchy -DZ will occur along with occasional MVFR. Conditions will take longer to improve at TUP, with a steady stream of -SHRA extending back through the Arklatex region. Eventually, VFR CIGs will prevail at TUP during the overnight, with high-based -SHRA exiting to the east. Dry mid-continental surface high pressure will bring VFR to all the Midsouth on Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026 Fire weather concerns will be on the rise through Tuesday as MinRH drops to 25-30% each day. Recent wetting rains will negate the need for a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement through Monday. However, increasing 20ft winds and dead fuel moisture near 10 percent may lead to fire weather products on Tuesday. Elevated dewpoints return Wednesday, ending fire weather concerns. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...PWB