Forecast Discussion
418 FXUS64 KMEG 220432 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 - Record high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s will continue on Sunday. - A dry cold front late Sunday will bring colder temperatures into next week before a secondary warming trend occurs midweek. - Dry weather will continue through at least the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 A strong upper ridge still persists tonight over the southwestern CONUS with a branch of enhanced upper flow stretching from Washington State to the Atlantic. A portion of the ridge will continue to nose its way into the Mid-South Sunday, which in combination with continued southwesterly surface winds, is expected to keep record high temperatures across the region. Current NBM forecasts indicate that there is still a 70% - 80% chance of highs above 85 F across the majority of the region. The belt of enhanced flow will amplify into a weak upper trough across the Great Lakes region through Sunday, with a strengthening surface low and attendant cold front. The cold front is forecast to swing into the region late Sunday evening, wiping out the warm air mass through early portions of next week. Forecast soundings indicate low atmospheric moisture and mid level capping that should prevent any appreciable rainfall with this frontal passage. Temperatures behind the front will drop highs down into the 60s and low 70s Monday and Tuesday. Ridging will be somewhat suppressed behind the cold front, but will begin to strengthen into the middle of next week. Southerlies will return and bring a warming trend back into the forecast beginning Wednesday. NBM probabilities of temperatures exceeding 85 F rise back into the 50% - 60% range Thursday, which would be near-record territory similar to this weekend. Forecast confidence remains high that another low amplitude shortwave trough will develop across the Great Lakes region Thursday and Friday. This trough would act to force another cold front through the region into next weekend, marking a quick end to next week`s heat. Meager moisture return after the first frontal passage is expected to starve the second of deep upper moisture, as indicated by most medium to long range guidance. Therefore, significant rainfall is unlikely to occur with next week`s front as well. High temperatures will then drop back below 80 F through the end of the forecast next weekend with a 60% - 80% chance of highs below 70 north along and north of I-40. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 VFR. SW winds will increase Sunday morning with gusts around 25 kts throughout the day due to a tight pressure gradient. Surface winds will diminish somewhat during the evening though LLWS will develop ahead of the cold front. Winds will shift abruptly to the north behind the front and become gusty overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Minimum relative humidity values will continue to remain between 30% and 40% Sunday with southerly 20 ft winds of up to 20 mph. A precipitation-free cold front will pass through the region beginning late Sunday evening, causing a northerly wind shift with much of the region continuing to experience 20 ft winds above 10 mph through Monday. The front will drop minimum relative humidity values slightly to around 30%. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...SJM