Forecast Discussion
596
FXUS64 KMEG 230506
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1106 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1059 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
- A significant winter storm will impact the Mid-South beginning
Friday night with heavy snow, sleet, and ice accumulations
expected through Sunday afternoon.
- Crippling ice accumulations are expected across portions of
North Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee near the
Tennessee River, leading to weather-related power outages and
treacherous to impossible travel.
- Bitterly cold air will accompany wintry precipitation, lasting
into early next week. Air temperatures and wind chills will drop
into the single digits to below zero at times.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1059 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Evening upper air analysis shows a broad upper-level trough
encompassing most of the Continental United States, with a cutoff
upper-level low located off the southern California Pacific
Coast. Surface high pressure over southern Illinois is bringing
precipitation-free weather to the Mid-South this evening. Water
Vapor satellite trends show Pacific moisture producing mid and
high level clouds over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi
Valley. Late evening temperatures are in the 30s to lower 40s.
Winds will increase across portions of northeast Arkansas and the
Missouri Bootheel on Friday as a 1040 mb surface high builds into
portions of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Much of the
guidance keeps winds below Wind Advisory criteria over this
aforementioned area into Friday afternoon. Thus, our confidence
remains too low at this time to consider any wind headlines.
Precipitation free weather will continue into Friday afternoon
with highs ranging from the upper 20s to middle 30s north of I-
40, and upper 30s to upper 40s south.
Conditions are expected to gradually deteriorate Friday night as
subtle mid-level shortwaves embedded within southwest flow aloft
move across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Increasing lift
associated with a developing low-level jet and adequate upper-
level forcing will allow for precipitation to begin developing
across the Mid-South mainly late Friday night into Saturday
afternoon. Precipitation will begin as snow to the north, with
sleet and freezing rain to the south. Short-term models including
Convective Allowing Models (CAMs) suggest precipitation will come
in two different waves with the second wave arriving later
Saturday afternoon and continuing into Sunday as deeper lift and
moisture overspread the region. The past several model runs
including the 00Z NAM, have trended slightly warmer and shifted
the area for mixed precipitation further north into portions of
northeast Arkansas and northwest Tennessee. The newly arrived 00Z
GFS has trended slightly colder than the consensus.
Thus, snow and sleet accumulations have shifted down slightly in
this issuance with snow and sleet amounts averaging between 5 to
9 inches across the northern third of the Mid-South, 2 to
5 inches along the I-40 corridor, and generally 2 inches or less
mainly over northwest Mississippi with minimal amounts to the
east. Ice accumulations will be less than two-tenths of an inch
north of I-40, one-quarter to approaching one-half inch along the
I-40 corridor, and crippling amounts in some cases exceeding
1 inch across much of north Mississippi and into portions of West
Tennessee near the Tennessee River. The current Winter Storm
Warning and Ice Storm Warnings look reasonable at this time.
We`ll continue to monitor trends in subsequent model runs and
adjust snow, sleet, and ice accumulations if temperature profiles
come in cooler than currently forecast. Prepare to delay travel
as roads and bridges are expected to be treacherous if not
impossible this weekend.
A strong arctic high will build into the Lower Mississippi Valley
in the wake of this prolonged wintry weather and will bring
dangerous cold to the Mid-South. The combination of wintry
precipitation, a very cold airmass, and excellent radiational
cooling will result in high temperatures struggling to reach the
20s west of the Mississippi River on Sunday, and nearly areawide
Monday, with lows near zero across portions of the area Sunday
night and Monday night. Cold Weather Headlines continue to look
likely, with long range model trends not indicating any
significant warm up well into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
VFR CIGs are anticipated through the period. The main impact
during the day on Friday will be gusty winds as the pressure
gradient tightens over the airspace. Sustained speeds in excess
of 15 kts with gusts near 30 kts are anticipated. The greater
concern emerges late in the period as a mixed bag of winter
precipitation approaches from the west. Onset of snow at JBR will
occur just outside of the 06Z timeframe Saturday. Sleet and
freezing rain will approach MEM by 09Z, so added PL FZRA to TAF.
ANS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1059 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Saturated soils from wetting rains and higher humidity values are
expected to last through into early next week. Expect
accumulating wintry precipitation beginning Friday night that
will last through the majority of this upcoming weekend. Very
cold air is also expected this weekend into early next week.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for
ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for
MOZ113-115.
MS...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for
MSZ001-007-010.
Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for
MSZ002>006-008-009-011>017-020>024.
TN...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>052-088-089.
Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for
TNZ053>055-090>092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...ANS
