Forecast Discussion

772
FXUS64 KMEG 302352
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
552 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 551 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

- Driving conditions will remain hazardous through the weekend due
  to the re-freezing of melted wintry precipitation.

- Frigid temperatures and single digit to negative wind chills are
  expected across the Mid-South, tonight into Sunday morning as an
  Arctic airmass settles back into the area.

- Temperatures will warm next week with rain chances increasing on
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

12Z upper air analysis and GOES Water Vapor satellite trends show
a shortwave trough stretching from the Canadian Maritimes into
the Upper Midwest. The Lower Mississippi Valley remains under the
influence of an upper level trough which encompasses the eastern
half of the United States. Areas east of the Mississippi River
are seeing a few low to mid clouds, while sunny skies prevail
elsewhere. Late morning temperatures are in the lower 30s over
portions of north central and northeast Mississippi and 20s
across the remainder of the Mid-South. Confidence remains high
(>90% chance) for bitterly cold temperatures and wind chill
values this weekend.

Short-term model trends indicate a shortwave trough will rotate
through the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys late tonight
into Saturday morning. Any precipitation is expected to remain
upstream over Kentucky and Middle and East Tennessee. A 1044 mb
surface high will build in across the region this weekend,
resulting in a return of cold arctic air for the weekend.
Elevated winds this evening combined with temperatures falling
into the teens will produce wind chill values down to the single
digits below zero. Winds are expected to be lighter for the
remainder of the weekend with the coldest temperatures occurring
Saturday night into Sunday morning as temperatures fall back into
the teens to single digits above zero. The current Extreme Cold
Warning and Cold Weather remain in effect with no changes needed
at this time.

Temperatures will finally moderate above freezing towards early
next week as shortwave ridging builds in across the Lower
Mississippi Valley. The next chance for precipitation will come
by the middle of next week as a shortwave trough embedded within
northwest flow aloft moves through the area.  LREF probabilities
of rainfall exceeding 0.5 inches remains low around 20-30% at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Gusty north winds will persist throughout much of the period as
an Arctic air mass moves in from the northwest. Hi-res guidance
is consistent with two areas of stratus moving into the region,
one from the northwest and mainly VFR, and one from the east in
the MVFR range. The highest confidence in MVFR CIGs will be at
MKL and TUP, where there is a 50 to 80% chance. MEM remains on
the edge with medium confidence of MVFR CIGs near daybreak for a
few hours.

There is high confidence that VFR conditions will return to all
sites by mid to late morning on Saturday. North winds will become
quite gusty in the afternoon hours, particularly at TUP, where
gusts will exceed 30 knots at times.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1203 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

A cold and dry air mass will overspread the Mid-South this
weekend, leading to frigid temperatures through Sunday. MinRH
will remain in the 45 to 60 percent range through early next
week. 20ft winds may exceed 10 kts on Saturday, but fuel moisture
remains plenty enough to preclude any fire weather threat.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday
     for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Saturday
     for ARZ058.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for
     ARZ058.

MO...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday
     for MOZ113-115.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday
     for MSZ001>009-014.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Saturday
     for MSZ010>013-015>017-020>024.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for
     MSZ010>013-015>017-020>024.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday
     for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AC3