Forecast Discussion
884 FXUS64 KMEG 102338 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 538 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 538 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 - Cool and dry weather is expected to persist through Tuesday. - The coldest temperatures will occur Sunday night as temperatures drop back into the middle to upper 20s. - There is a medium chance (40-50 percent) of below normal temperatures next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1201 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 12Z upper-air analysis shows a longwave trough extending from the Upper Midwest into portions of the Central/Southern Plains and Southwest United States. At the surface, a cold front is located along the Mississippi River, with late morning temperatures primarily in the 50s. Much cooler and drier air will filter in behind the cold front this weekend as the upper-level trough moves into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Confidence is high for this cold and dry pattern persisting through early next week. Lows tonight will be in the 30s with the coldest temperatures expected Sunday night as many locations drop into the middle to upper 20s across the area. Mid to long range models indicate another mid-level shortwave trough and associated cold front will bring additional rain chances to the Mid-South mainly on Wednesday. Given the limited moisture indicated by model soundings, only light rainfall is expected with limited duration 20-30% PoPs during this period. A secondary mid-level shortwave trough and cold front will move through the region late next week bringing much colder temperatures to the Mid-South next weekend. Some differences still remain within the operational models as the ECMWF is drier, somewhat more progressive and deeper than the GFS. Thus, confidence is low for timing of cold air along with any wintry precipitation potential for the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 538 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 MVFR stratus is expected to leave by 06z, pulling CIGs out of the TAF for MKL and TUP, and allowing for VFR conditions to prevail through the rest of the period. Gusty northwest winds that are currently at MEM, MKL, and TUP will subside slightly tonight and will strengthen again tomorrow morning around 12z. Gusts of up to 18 knots can be expected through Sunday afternoon with winds quickly weakening after sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1201 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Confidence is high for no fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Dry and seasonably cool conditions will persist through early next week as surface high pressure remains in place across the region. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...JAB