Forecast Discussion
318 FXUS64 KMEG 061221 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 621 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 613 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026 - Record-challenging warmth will build into the Mid-South this week. Our warmest day will be Thursday as highs reach the upper 60s to mid 70s. - Rain chances return on Thursday and will become more widespread late Thursday night into Friday. A Slight Risk for severe storms is in place for the majority of the Mid-South on Friday. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1115 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026 Surface winds from the southwest have strengthened today in response to a 1003mb surface low currently moving into northwest Missouri. A 2001 surface high is in place along the southeast coast of the Nation, over eastern North Carolina, South Carolina and much of Georgia. Winds will relax a bit overnight following a normal diurnal trend, but also due to the surface low moving over lake Michigan. A warm front will lift into the Ohio Valley early tomorrow. Further weakening of the wind is expected tomorrow as the high shifts offshore. This pattern will keep a steady flow of warm, moist air streaming into the Midsouth. A weak cold, or occluded front will follow quickly behind the warm front late tomorrow. Wednesday`s temperatures behind this front will only be 2-4 degrees cooler than Tuesday. Clear skies should return to the Midsouth Tuesday afternoon but begin to increase again during the afternoon Wednesday. The pattern aloft does not change much through Tuesday. General zonal flow will prevail. However, a deepening trough off the Mexican West Coast will begin to translate to a more northwesterly component Wednesday as a ridge builds over the Desert Southwest. That ridge will quickly shift across the Plains and approach the Mississippi River Valley by sunrise Thursday. This feature, along with persistent WWA will be responsible for boosting our afternoon highs into the upper 60s to middle 70s. The Atlantic trough will swing onshore Wednesday afternoon. An associated 995-997mb surface low will track from the Oklahoma Panhandle Wednesday night, and into east-central Missouri Thursday evening. This track would place all of the Midsouth in a large warm sector Thursday night into Friday. Due to many factors, but mostly because we are still several days out, we are only expecting about a 15% chance of severe storms. The environmental conditions will feature high shear and low CAPE which is the typical setup for convection this time of year. However, the strongest dynamics currently look to stay mainly to our north and west with the higher instability to our south. A cold front Friday night is expected to bring cooler conditions for the weekend. Expect highs in the 50s Saturday and in the 40s Sunday. JDS && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026 Primary concern remains MVFR/isolated IFR CIGs at MEM/MKL/TUP through mid-morning. KLZK/KNQA VAD wind profiler showed southwesterly winds in the lowest 2KFT beginning weaken and veer westerly at 12Z. Weaker moisture transport and daytime mixing should limit further northward expansion of the lower cloud deck. A weak cold frontal passage should bring drier air to all but TUP this afternoon. The front will wash out south of MEM this evening, with patchy BR/FG in the vicinity of the stalled boundary, primarily affecting TUP. PWB && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1115 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026 Minimum relative humidity values will remain well above 50 percent for the upcoming week, keeping fire weather concerns to a minimum. Rain chances return Thursday and persist through the end of the week. The chance of wetting rain Thursday and Friday looks high(100%). && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...PWB