Forecast Discussion

028
FXUS64 KMEG 291050
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
550 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

- Low-end fire danger potential will linger Sunday throughout the
  Mississippi River Delta as dry air and gusty winds remain.

- A significant warming trend will bring temperatures 10 to 15
  degrees above normal Monday and Tuesday.

- A wet pattern shift will bring a 60% to 80% chance of rainfall
  starting Wednesday, lasting through at least the end of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

A mild and clear night is underway across the Mid-South due to
the passage of a cold front ushering in a cool and very dry
airmass. As temperatures warm to the mid 70s Sunday afternoon,
dewpoints still lag behind in the upper 30s and low 40s.
Resultant relative humidities top out around 30%. This will
create another day of elevated fire weather danger on Sunday,
especially with the addition of gusty south winds up to 20 MPH
throughout the afternoon. The southerly wind direction should
provide enough moisture transport to mitigate critical
conditions, but caution should still be used with any kind of
spark or open flames. In addition, check with local officials for
county burn bans as several of our counties have burn bans in
effect through the end of the weekend.

Moving into next week, things start off quite warm for early
spring standards with temperatures climbing 10-15 degrees above
normal, into the low to mid 80s Monday and Tuesday. Strong WAA
along surface return flow as well as upper level ridging are the
culprits of this warm pattern. Towards midweek, the upper level
pattern starts to flatten out a bit and even adopt more of a
southwesterly flow regime aloft. This will allow for large scale
lift at the surface coinciding with a series of cold fronts
becoming stationary. This marks a significant pattern shift
through the end of the forecast period.

The next cold front is slated to move through on Wednesday
morning, bringing PoPs back up to the 70-80% range. This same
front will most likely stall out on Thursday, keeping us in a wet
pattern through the following weekend. Early ensemble profiles
indicate a messy convective regime Wednesday through Saturday
along this stalled front. No one particular day is jumping out
for a synoptic severe weather setup; it will most likely be
several days of widespread showers and thunderstorms until the
front is able to clear the area. There is already a signal for
storm total QPF above 3" from Wednesday to Saturday due to PWATs
nearing the upper echelon of climatology (1.4"+) promoting heavy
rainfall producing storms for several days.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue across the airspace as we
sit on the backside of a surface high. South/southeast winds will
begin to gust up to 25 kts around 15Z across all terminals along
a tightening pressure gradient. Gusts are expected to drop out
around 00Z before gusting up to 20 kts again overnight Monday.
Marginal LLWS is also expected overnight Monday along the
aforementioned pressure gradient. Some guidance is hinting at an
MVFR deck pushing north overnight Monday, however, confidence was
not high enough to prevail in TAF.

AEH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain through Sunday
afternoon as temperatures warm to the mid 70s but dewpoints still
lag behind in the upper 30s and low 40s. Resultant relative
humidities top out around 30%. The MS Delta may have some locally
drier air with minimum relative humidity values below 30% and
elevated southerly winds gusting up to 20 mph. At this time, Red
Flag Warning criteria are unlikely to be met and another
Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is expected to be needed tomorrow
as well.

Southerly moisture transport will eventually cover the entire
region into early next week. Minimum relative humidity values
will then rise above 30% starting Monday and will remain there
through the rest of the week. The pattern becomes very wet on
Wednesday and lasts through next weekend.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...AEH