Forecast Discussion
993 FXUS64 KMEG 092345 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 545 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Breezy and mild conditions are forecast tonight and Wednesday. A Wind Advisory may be needed for parts of the Midsouth on Wednesday. - Much colder temperatures are forecast from Saturday night through Monday night. Wind chills will drop to as low as 10 degrees over northwest Tennessee and Missouri Bootheel Sunday morning. Monday morning will likely bring the coldest temperatures of the week, as calm winds settle in. - Temperatures will warm up by the middle of next week, approaching near normal by Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Monday) Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Other than breezy conditions tonight and Wednesday, benign weather will continue over the Midsouth the next few days. Arctic air remains on track for a Saturday night arrival. Little has changed in the forecast with respect to temperature trends through Friday. Southerly low level flow will likely intensify early Wednesday in advance of an upper trough dropping into the upper Midwest. A Wind Advisory may be needed Wednesday, at least until the passage of a Pacific cold front Wednesday afternoon. Under continued northwest flow aloft, another cold front will drop into the Midsouth Friday night. This front will be backed by a colder airmass, primarily taking an easterly trajectory toward the Ohio River Valley. 07Z NBM MaxT are in the upper quartile range for Saturday and appear too warm, given northeasterly surface winds and broken cloud cover. Official MaxT grids for Saturday have been lowered closer to the NBM mean. Friday night`s cold front will be followed by an Arctic cold frontal passage roughly 24 hours later. The core of this Arctic air isn`t quite as impressive as guidance depicted several days ago, but it takes a more direct path toward the Midsouth and is backed by a 1042mb pressure ridge. Wind chills will likely dip to around 10 degrees over far northeast AR, the MO bootheel and northwest TN Sunday morning. Coldest temps are expected for Monday morning, as the surface ridge axis settles in and brings light winds. At this time, no wintry precipitation is forecast, as precipitation ends Saturday night prior to arrival of the colder air. We will need to watch for possible overlap of subfreezing temps and QPF in future guidance. Temperatures look to rebound toward the middle of next week, as an upstream ridge over the southern Great Plains lifts to the lower MS River Valley. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Confidence is high (80-90%) for VFR conditions prevailing through the 00Z TAF period. Main concern continues to be the elevated winds aloft producing LLWS tonight. We have continued LLWS mention at all sites overnight as 2000ft SW winds will increase to around 50 kts. Gusty south winds will veer W/NW with passage of cold front and remain elevated into Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Strong southwesterly winds will continue through the middle part of the afternoon on Wednesday. These strong winds will be accompanied by minimum relative humidity 40 to 55 percent. An Arctic cold front will bring dry and cold dry conditions for the second half the weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...CJC