Forecast Discussion
905 FXUS64 KMEG 282349 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 549 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 549 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 - Below-normal temperatures will persist over the next seven days. - Rain will return to the Mid-South Saturday through Sunday morning. We could see a few snowflakes, mainly north of I-40, Saturday morning though impacts are not expected. - Significant uncertainty exists regarding a low-pressure system next Monday and into Tuesday morning that could bring heavy rain or a mixed precipitation regime to the region. Stay tuned for updated forecasts in the coming days. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1213 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 We had a pretty chilly start to our Friday as below freezing temperatures occurred across much of the Mid-South leading to widespread frost across much of the area. We`re still pretty chilly at this hour with current temperatures in the lower 40s to lower 50s under clear skies and light and variable winds at the surface. As surface high pressure slides to the east and quasi- zonal flow aloft prevail over the next 12 hours or so, we will see chilly, benign weather. A pattern shift will occur tomorrow morning as a deepening surface low begins to emerge from the Central Plains. Ahead of this deepening low, a shortwave will materialize over the Middle Mississippi Valley tomorrow morning with decent swath of warm air advection brought in with it. Ample moisture transport aided by the aforementioned lifting mechanisms will bring precipitation, northwest to southeast, tomorrow morning. A small window will open up for a rain and snow mix, mainly along the Tennessee Kentucky border, early tomorrow morning where temperatures will be below freezing. However, there are a few caveats with a wintry mix. Precipitation may not begin early enough when temperatures are below freezing, leading to no wintry precipitation and just rain. Either way, impacts are not expected tomorrow morning. The main story through the rest of tomorrow will be widespread showers as forecast PWATs begin to increase to around 1.2", nearing the 80th percentile for this time of the year. An attendant cold front will begin moving across the Mid-South Sunday morning, pushing precipitation southeast of our area by afternoon. There is pretty good model agreement that this cold front will stall just south of the I-40 corridor. As such, we will see a pretty decent temperature contrast, highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s north of this boundary and in the mid 40s to lower 50s south of this boundary Sunday. This stalled front will largely impact precipitation type come Monday. A Gulf low will materialize and begin pushing into the Lower Mississippi Valley Monday morning. One thing we know, moisture will be present as the upper- level pattern transitions from zonal to northwest flow and this surface low begins to bring precipitation chances back to the Mid- South. Another swath of warm air advection will also act as a lifting mechanism for precipitation Monday afternoon into evening. Depending on how quickly this Gulf low begins to influence the weather here in to Mid-South Monday morning, precipitation could interact with at or below freezing temperatures in northeast central Arkansas leading to a light freezing rain and rain mix. As warm air advection infiltrates in, by late Monday morning, any precipitation over areas really south of I-40 will quickly transition to all showers. North of I-40, however, is a different story. As the gulf low continues to push east/northeast across the Mississippi Valley, precipitation chances will increase across all of the Mid-South. Areas mainly along the Tennessee and Kentucky border will likely have below freezing temperatures interacting with precipitation. As such, we will likely see some sort of a wintry mix. Now as far as what precipitation type will be mixed with rainfall is debatably the biggest question. Depending on what ensemble solution you look at, this could be predominantly snow, freezing rain, or even sleet mix. Air temperatures aloft will likely be above freezing given high temperatures Monday afternoon likely reaching above freezing limits, in the mid 30s to lower 40s. As such the predominant precipitation type will likely not be snow. Bottom line, we will more than likely see a wintry mix mainly north of I-40 Monday afternoon and extending through Tuesday morning. Precipitation chances will begin to diminish Tuesday afternoon as a negatively tilted trough pushes into the Upper Mississippi Valley from the southern Rockies region. High pressure will quickly build in behind this trough, increasing Wednesday`s temperatures back into the 40s, comparative to the 30s for Tuesday`s highs. The weather does look a bit unsettled in the latter part of next work-week as cluster analysis is hinting another Gulf low bringing shower chances back to the Mid-South Thursday into Friday. However we are still a ways out to pinpoint exact impacts from this next system. AEH && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 549 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 VFR and light winds will prevail into early Saturday morning. SE winds will increase as a cold front approaches on Saturday. Expect SE winds at 12-15 kts with higher gusts. LLWS will also develop by mid morning and continue throughout the day. Showers will spread into the region during the day. A few snow flakes and/or ice pellets could occur at the onset of precipitation at JBR and perhaps MKL. No impacts are expected. Cigs will remain VFR for much of the day but will eventually lower to MVFR from west to east during the afternoon and evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1213 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 No significant fire weather concerns will exist through the forecast period. Minimum relative humidity values are expected to remain above 30 percent across the area with light winds. Wetting rain chances will increase Saturday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...SJM