Forecast Discussion

078
FXUS64 KMEG 021109
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
509 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 508 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

- Above-normal temperatures will continue through Friday before a
  brief cool-down to near-normal over the weekend.

- Rain chances return to the forecast Friday through Friday night.
  A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out across northern
  Mississippi. Severe weather is not anticipated.

- Well-above-normal temperatures will return by the start of next
  week with highs in the 60s and low 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Broad northwesterlies continue to prevail aloft while surface
high pressure has moved well south of the region and is currently
centered over the Gulf. As a result of high pressure moving out
of the region, return flow started today and allowed highs to
reach into the mid 60s. This will help to keep lows in the 40s and
50s Friday morning.

To our west, a lee surface low has developed through the day,
which will move east Thursday night, reaching the Mid-South
throughout Friday. Although moisture is not currently in high
supply, southerly advection is expected to quickly change that
Friday morning and into the afternoon. Eventually, rain will
commence as moisture isentropically ascends over a warm front
draped over the center of the region. Rain will initially be
light given that surface moisture advection may be slightly
delayed, but rain development will be prolonged enough to make it
to the surface by mid afternoon across West Tennessee. To the
south of the warm front, enough theta e advection will have
occurred for some MUCAPE to develop. However, models have
struggled to bring more than 250 J/kg in the past few days under
warm mid level temperatures. Therefore, severe weather appears
unlikely, but there is a low (< 30%) chance of thunderstorms
Friday evening in north Mississippi. Rainfall amounts are still
expected to be light, with accumulations generally around .25" to
.50" across north Mississippi and West Tennessee through Saturday
morning. Locally higher rainfall amounts could follow areas of
convection across north Mississippi, but are expected to remain
below 1".

The surface low will exit the region Saturday afternoon, bringing
high pressure, dry weather, and cooler air south Saturday night
and into Sunday. Lows Sunday morning will then drop into the low
30s with areas across eastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel,
and West Tennessee dropping below freezing. Temperatures will
quickly become mild once again as an upper ridge builds in
through the beginning of next week. Highs on Monday will be back
in the 60s, climbing into the upper 60s and low 70s Tuesday.
These conditions are expected to remain as ensembles are in good
agreement that ridging will continue to persist across the
eastern CONUS through late next week. Ensembles also seem to be
in good agreement that troughing will begin to amplify across the
western CONUS at this time, potentially chucking some upper waves
our way towards the end of the period. However, there is still
enough forecast uncertainty to mention anything specific at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 508 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Rain will develop towards mid-morning at TAF sites, becoming
widespread this afternoon before tapering to drizzle later this
evening into early Saturday. VFR conditions are expected to
deteriorate to IFR conditions late this afternoon and to LIFR
conditions by this evening. Confidence remains low (< 10%) for a
thunderstorm at TUP this evening. Light SE/S winds will back to
the NE at 5-9 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1133 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Limited fire weather concerns expected throughout the forecast
period. Dry conditions will abate Friday afternoon as a low
pressure system brings moisture into the region. Wetting rains
are expected across West Tennessee and northern Mississippi
starting Friday afternoon, lasting through the overnight hours.
Portions of north Mississippi have a low (< 30%) chance of
thunderstorms, which are not expected to be severe. Dry
conditions will return by Saturday afternoon, but minimum
relative humidity values are forecast to remain above 40% with
light 20 ft winds.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CJC