Forecast Discussion
547 FXUS64 KMEG 200328 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1028 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1027 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 - A warming trend will bring near-record high temperatures in the mid 80s this weekend. - Dry weather will continue through the middle of next week as temperatures remain above normal. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1027 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 A few high clouds are infiltrating the region along northwest flow aloft this evening. A broad, elongated surface high along the Eastern Seaboard is giving way to light south winds at the surface as well. This upper level pattern will begin to deamplify starting tomorrow as the surface flow amplifies with a strengthening ridge. As a result of these two juxtaposing features, temperatures will begin to warm significantly through the weekend and PoPs will remain < 10%. The main talking point of this forecast period is record-breaking warmth on Sunday. Each of our four climate sites are slated to either tie or break their record highs (83 at MEM, 82 at MKL, 83 at TUP, 88 at JBR) on Sunday afternoon. Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are about 15-20 degrees above normal for late March. This early Spring heat is due to a combination of a couple factors: first, persistent WAA along southwesterly flow for several days beforehand, second, the timing of a frontal boundary moving through on Sunday evening. The Mid-South will be right on the warmest edge of the front on Sunday afternoon right before it sags south through the region, maximizing afternoon temperatures. Due to the zonal orientation of this boundary, little to no moisture advection will occur ahead of its arrival. As a result, the column will most likely be too dry for anything but a couple sprinkles during FROPA on Sunday evening. PoPs are below mentionable thresholds (15%) for this system`s entire journey through the region. After the front, temperatures very briefly plunge back to near normal on Monday. However, another warmup is on the way next week as quasi-zonal flow aloft returns with southerly flow at the surface. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1027 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 A ridge of high pressure will bring a continuation of VFR conditions throughout the period. Light south winds will increase to 9-12 kts with a few occasional gusts on Friday, then diminish to 5 kts or less by Friday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1027 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 A warming trend will continue through this weekend with minimum relative humidity values persisting between 30% and 40%. The main story will be dry and progressively warmer conditions through Sunday, though moisture transport will increase in tandem and help to mitigate fire weather concerns. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...CJC