Forecast Discussion
460 FXUS64 KMEG 301749 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1249 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026 - A significant warming trend will bring temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal beginning today, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s through at least Thursday. - Breezy conditions are expected through Tuesday with south wind gusts near 30 MPH. - Showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast by Wednesday, with a 50% to 80% chance of rainfall starting on Thursday through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026 Another breezy and warm day is progressing across the Mid-South with temperatures currently spanning the 70s and some clouds overhead. Over the next few days, things will become increasingly more humid as moisture returns to the area with south/southwesterly flow. This will allow for our dew points to reach back into the mid 60s with high temperatures in the mid 80s. While this will not be completely oppressive, it will be some of the warmer and more humid days we have seen thus far this season. Similar to today, wind speeds are expected to become gusty (30-35+ mph) at times particularly in the afternoon on Tuesday across northeast AR and the MO Bootheel. NBM has about a 40-60% chance of exceeding Wind Advisory criteria for these locations, while the HREF has closer to a 20-40% chance. Given the uncertainty and only having low to medium confidence, opted against issuing any products at this time. However, this will be something to watch in future forecast cycles. By Wednesday, an upper-level trough will begin to move off of the Rocky Mountains, transitioning our area into a somewhat more active weather pattern. Models have pushed back the timing a bit on the arrival of the first frontal boundary, keeping higher PoP chances (> 50%) until Thursday. Any precipitation we do see on Wednesday will generally be light and confined to north MS and along the TN River. Higher PoP chances will move through in two general waves, with one round Thursday into Friday and another Saturday into Sunday. Timing for both waves remains in flux. The good news with both rounds, so to speak, is that the chance of severe weather remains extremely low. Current joint probabilities for CAPE and shear remain < 15%, with little upper-level forcing until Sunday. While some isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, this does appear to be mostly a rain event for our area with the better chances for convection west and north of the Mid- South. Through the entire event, the majority of guidance continues to highlight generally 1.5-2.5" of rainfall across the Mid-South. Some of these amounts have dropped with the latest run, so do think things will remain on the lower end rather than the higher end. Given the ongoing drought conditions, this would be meaningful precipitation with only a low threat for flooding mainly for urban and low-lying areas. Everything will move out of the area by next Monday, with high pressure filtering into the region behind. This would likely spell a drier and warmer weather pattern returning into the next work week, with 8-14 CPC guidance favoring above-normal temperatures and near-normal presentation. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026 SCT/BKN clouds currently prevail across the region with isolated pockets of MVFR CIGs. Cloud bases will continue to lift through this afternoon alongside the diurnal erosion of any remaining CIGs. Gusty southerly winds will continue to prevail with gusts anywhere from 20 - 30 knots. Wind gusts will weaken after sunset, but will return with a restrengthening of the surface pressure gradient early Tuesday morning. Short term model guidance indicates a high (60% - 80%) chance of MVFR CIGs at all MEM/MKL/JBR by 10z with a 40% - 50% of IFR. Therefore, have introduced MVFR but have refrained from mentioning IFR in this period given lower confidence. MVFR is expected to last through 18z with continued gusty, southerly winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026 Minimal fire danger concerns are expected for the foreseeable future, with minRH values remaining above 35%. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2" are expected from Wednesday through Sunday, which will likely help our ongoing drought conditions. Some gusty winds could occur across northeast AR and the MO Bootheel, especially Tuesday afternoon. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...JAB