Forecast Discussion
800 FXUS64 KMEG 061715 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1215 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026 - Benign weather is expected to persist through the end of the week. - A significant warming trend is expected, with temperatures climbing from the 70s early in the week into the 80s by the upcoming weekend. - Marginal fire weather concerns will exist through mid-week due to low relative humidity values and dry conditions. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026 12Z upper air analysis shows an upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. with a ridge stretching from the Pacific Northwest into the Southern Plains. This morning`s surface analysis places a 1028 mb surface high over portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley with a weak cold front bisecting the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley. Sunny to mostly sunny skies are prevailing across the Mid-South with late morning temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Pleasant weather continues across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures rising into the lower 70s across most locations. A weak and dry reinforcing cold front will drop into the northern third of the Mid-South tonight with northwest flow resulting in slightly cooler temperatures in the middle to upper 60s north of I-40 for Tuesday. Lows Tuesday morning will be slightly warmer in the 40s. Confidence remains high (>80% chance) for a persistence forecast that will continue across the Mid-South throughout most of the week as upper-level ridging keeps the Mid-South in a dry pattern through at least Friday. Lower relative humidity values through mid-week and a lack of adequate rainfall present a marginal fire weather concern, though winds are expected to remain relatively light during the period. Southerly winds on the backside of high pressure by late week will bring an increase in temperatures across the region and a modest increase in moisture by the weekend over Arkansas. Confidence remains low for rain showers (15-30% chance) confined to areas mainly west of the Mississippi River for Sunday night into early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail in the wake of high pressure behind a cold front. Light NE winds this afternoon will generally go calm overnight and pick back up to 10 kts or so mid Tuesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026 Dry conditions will persist for the foreseeable future, with some marginal fire danger concerns through the first half of this week. Minimum relative humidity values will range from 25 to 35 percent with the lower values occurring south of I-40 through at least Tuesday afternoon. However, 20ft winds will remain below 10 mph with the exception of a few locations across NE AR and the MO Bootheel Tuesday afternoon. There is very low confidence for when the next measurable rainfall will occur across the area. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...CAD