Forecast Discussion
535 FXUS64 KMEG 200454 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1154 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026 - Elevated fire danger is anticipated across the majority of the Mid-South on Tuesday due to a combination of elevated winds, low humidity, and temperatures in the 80s. - Warm and dry conditions with highs in the low to mid 80s will continue through Thursday. - Friday and into the weekend will feature warm and increasingly humid conditions as the weather pattern becomes wet and unsettled. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026 A calm and cool night is on display with current temperatures, as of 10 PM, in the mid 40s to upper 50s with mostly calm winds at the surface, under clear skies. There has been an uptick in dewpoints since sunset, resulting in an increasingly susceptible environment for fog development. One of the main limiting factors for fog overnight is a dry air column, indicated by forecast soundings. Bottom line, patchy fog could develop along the aforementioned conditions, especially east of the Mississippi River. If fog does develop, it will lift shortly after sunrise as winds begin to increase. Tomorrow will be another pleasantly dry and "cooler" day with temperatures near normal in the 70s, aided by cool high pressure in place. Tuesday, southwest winds will become elevated as the pressure gradient tightens over the Mid-South. Fire weather danger will increase further as minimum relative humidity values will continue in the 25-30% range and ten hour dead fuel moisture reaches around 10%. Confidence continues to increase, medium to high, in at least a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement issuance warranted. Temperatures will also edge above normal Tuesday as elevated winds usher in warmer air and weak upper-level ridging begins to build over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Dewpoints will begin to increase Wednesday, decreasing fire weather danger as Gulf moisture begins to infiltrate over the Mid-South. Heading into the latter half of the workweek, the weather pattern will shift to more wet and unsettled as an amplifying trough ejects from the Pacific Northwest Thursday. Though there is still much uncertainty with the exact evolution of this system, confidence is increasing in an attendant cold front pushing across the central CONUS Friday as Gulf moisture continues to filter in. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase. Though we are still several days out, LREF joint probabilities have around a 25-40% chance of SBCAPE values > 500 J/kg, CIN < 25 J/kg, and 0-6 km bulk wind shear > 30 kts Friday. Ensemble members, however, are as ambitious with the parameter space. Details will become more clear as we move closer to Friday, so for now, this is something to keep an eye on in subsequent days. Wetting rain chances, however, are becoming increasingly more likely, hopefully helping to chip away at ongoing drought conditions as wet and unsettled conditions continue through the weekend. AEH && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026 Light winds and clear skies will continue through the overnight. Surface dewpoints have risen 6-7 degrees F since 00Z, while temperatures have continued to cool. LAMP guidance carries no fog and NBM guidance depicts than 5 percent chance of MVFR VIS, the narrowing dewpoint depressions and calm winds do present a concern for shallow radiation fog at MKL and TUP. VFR and light winds will prevail through the day Monday, with dry air not likely to produce cumulus. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026 Fire weather concerns will be on the rise through Tuesday as minimum relative humidity values drop to 25-30% each day. Recent wetting rains will likely negate the need for a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement Monday. However, increasing 20ft winds and dead fuel moisture near 10 percent will likely necessitate a need for fire weather products on Tuesday. Increased dewpoints return Wednesday through the end of the week, decreasing fire weather concerns. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...PWB