Forecast Discussion

552
FXUS64 KMEG 141202
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
602 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 600 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

- Showers are expected across the entire Mid-South on Wednesday,
  with rainfall totals up to 0.25".

- Winds will become gusty by Wednesday afternoon, with wind gusts
  of at least 30 to 35 mph at times.

- Much colder temperatures will return on Thursday, with high
  temperatures struggling to reach 40 degrees. Near to below
  normal temperatures are expected to continue into the weekend
  and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

A mild overnight period is ongoing across the Mid-South with
showers beginning to develop along a frontal boundary to our
northwest. While some light echos are showing up on radar, we
still have a pretty dry air mass in place, so any showers will
likely struggle to reach the surface over the next couple of
hours. As more moisture filters in overnight, we will begin to
see additional showers develop as this line moves southward
through the morning hours. These showers will ultimately move out
by the afternoon, bringing up to 0.25" of rain. Highest totals
will be across West TN, with locations elsewhere likely remaining
closer to the 0.10" mark. Behind the cold front, winds will
become gusty by Wednesday afternoon. NBM probabilities suggest
that locations generally along and west of the MS River have a 60-
70% chance of wind gusts exceeding 35 mph, with some locations
potentially approaching 40 mph. A Wind Advisory may be needed
across portions of northeast AR and the MO Bootheel, where the
probabilities are highest if this trend continues.

A much drier and colder air mass will filter in behind
Wednesday`s frontal boundary, with most locations seeing a 10-
15 degree high temperature drop between Wednesday and Thursday.
Many locations will struggle to reach the 40s on Thursday, with
most of the area likely remaining in the mid to upper 30s. The
fast moving trough axis will continue to shift eastward on
Friday, with zonal flow returning aloft. This will allow for a
brief respite in our temperatures, with high temperatures
returning to the upper 40s to 50s on Friday. Through the day on
Friday, an upper-level low pressure system will move across the
Great Lakes with a tightening pressure gradient to our north.
While the strongest winds and bulk of any precipitation with this
system should remain to our north, some gusty winds can`t be
ruled out for locations north of I-40 on Friday. NBM
probabilities have a 70-80% chance of wind gusts exceeding
30 mph.

Moving into the weekend, a very dry and cold air mass will filter
in as the upper-level trough deepens across the region. High
temperatures will remain well below-normal, with highs in the 30s
to 40s on Saturday and 30s on Sunday. In addition, overnight lows
will be in the teens to 20s by Sunday morning, with wind chill
values in the single digits to teens. While these values should
remain just above advisory criteria, this will be something to
watch in later forecast cycles. Looking to next week, CPC
guidance continues to highlight below-normal temperatures across
the area, so it looks like the colder weather is here to stay.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

A pre-frontal band of -SHRAs will move across the region this
morning. CIGs will fall to MVFR for a few hours this morning as a
cold front moves through. Skies should scatter out by late
afternoon with gusty northwest winds expected at MEM, MKL, JBR,
and TUP. There is a 20 to 40% chance of wind gusts exceeding
30 knots, diminishing to less than 10kts late tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1050 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Showers will move across the Mid-South on Wednesday, bringing up
to 0.25" of rainfall. Dry conditions will filter back in on
Thursday, with minRH values falling below 40%. While values will
be low, recent rain and light winds should alleviate any fire
danger concerns. MinRH values will remain above 40% on Friday,
before conditions dry out again this weekend. MinRH values will
likely fall below 35%, possibly even 30%, on both Saturday and
Sunday with 20ft winds exceeding 10 mph on Saturday. If this
trend continues, elevated fire danger concerns could occur on
Saturday afternoon and will need to be monitored in future
forecast periods.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for ARZ009-018-026-028.

MO...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...AC3