Forecast Discussion
069 FXUS64 KMEG 181143 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 543 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 522 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 - Above-normal temperatures will continue through the week. - Wet and unsettled weather, including periods of showers and thunderstorms, will return this week, with the potential for 1 to 2 inches of total rainfall through this weekend. Most rain will fall after midweek. - Cooler conditions are anticipated next weekend with highs in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1046 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Low pressure is situated over the Central Plains this evening with a warm front extending southeast into the Lower MS Valley. A weak shortwave that had generated a few showers over West TN this evening is quickly moving east. The last of its associated showers are crossing the TN River into Middle TN. Temps range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Readings will fall to around 50 by Tuesday morning along the TN River where the airmass is dry and winds are lighter. Temps will level out across the Delta thanks to steady south winds. Low pressure will track to the Mid MS Valley by early Tuesday and into the OH Valley by Tuesday evening. Most of the showers and thunderstorms associated with this system will remain north of the KY/MO/TN border. Northern parts of the Mid-South could see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms after midnight through about noon Thursday as the warm front lifts through. Much warmer air will flood into the Mid-South on gusty SW winds. Wind gusts above 30 mph will be common Tuesday afternoon, especially across the Delta. Values should remain below Wind Advisory criteria though. Near record temps are expected across north MS. As the surface low moves across KY Tuesday night, a weak cold front will sag into the Mid-South. Latest CAMS show isolated to scattered convection developing along this feature during the evening, continuing into the overnight hours. Forecast soundings indicate some elevated instability and a little shear. Boundary layer moisture quality is pretty poor and lift is weak so the severe threat is minimal but worth watching. Upper ridging will strengthen on Wednesday ahead of the next system. The weak cold front will become a stalled boundary across the Mid-South. Temps will be cooler toward the KY/MO border and very warm south of the boundary, across north MS, where record highs will likely be challenged. The next system will exit the SW US on Thursday with moist SW flow increasing across the Mid-South. Expect overrunning to develop along the stalled frontal boundary that will start lifting north as a warm front. Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop along that frontal boundary across mainly areas along and north of I-40 Thursday into Thursday night. The cold front will push into the region on Friday with more showers and thunderstorms. A severe threat could develop depending on timing and how the instability fields unfold. The system seems to be favoring a more progressive evolution so heavy rainfall looks like less of a problem. Storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected with higher amounts north of I-40. Latest models are settling on the next bit of energy moving into the SW later this weekend remaining cutoff this weekend and ejecting east more slowly. This should result in some upper ridging developing across the Southern Plains and possibly a dry and seasonable weekend across the Mid-South. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 A warm front will push north across the area today with a 20-30 percent chance of MVFR ceilings developing at all sites except TUP. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail into this evening. There is a 20-30 percent chance of a rain shower affecting JBR and MEM this evening as the boundary returns back south as a weak cold front. Latest ensemble guidance trends suggest MVFR ceilings re-developing overnight across the area. S winds will increase to 10-16 kts with gusts up to around 25 kts during the day. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1046 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 An increasingly wet and unsettled pattern will prevail over the Mid-South this week. Fire weather concerns will be minimal through the period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...CJC