Forecast Discussion

704
FXUS64 KMEG 290550
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1150 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1150 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

- Patchy freezing fog is expected late tonight, which may create a
  light glaze on elevated surfaces. Otherwise, black ice on
  roadways will remain a concern on previously cleared roadways.
  Unnecessary travel is discouraged tonight and early Thursday
  morning.

- Despite increasing cloudiness, daytime temperatures will warm
  above freezing again over most of the Midsouth on Thursday.
  Temperatures over north Mississippi will warm into the mid and
  upper 40s.

- An Arctic cold front will pass through the Midsouth late
  Thursday night, in tandem with an upper level disturbance. A few
  snow flurries and patchy freezing drizzle may occur in the
  predawn hours Friday. Otherwise, the temperatures will plummet,
  with single digit below zero wind chills expected over a good
  portion of the Midsouth Saturday and Sunday mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Primary concern is the return of bitter cold Arctic air this
weekend, following the passage of an Arctic cold front early
Friday morning. The frontal passage will coincide with the
passage of a lead shortwave, dropping south in advance of rapidly
deepening longwave trough. This longwave trough will drop through
the mid-MS RIver Valley Friday night.

The lead shortwave may bring isolated light snow showers and
patchy freezing drizzle early Friday morning. The lack of
dendritic zone (-12 to -18C) moisture will limit snow coverage
and accumulating potential. But the lack of feeder-seeder ice
crystals from above will also allow supercooled water droplets
below 800mb to present a low end freezing drizzle chance. No
measurable icing is expected at this time, given the relatively
low column RH and progressive nature of the shorwave.

Temperatures will plunge Friday night, as the deepening upper
trough axis rotates through the Midsouth. This trough will be
quite dynamic, ingesting stratospheric potential vorticity and
dropping the tropopause to 600mb in the base of the trough.
Despite limited moisture, scattered light snow snowers or
flurries may occur Friday night. The trough will continue to
deepen through Saturday night when it exits into the Atlantic,
off the Carolina coast.

A Cold Weather Watch will be issued for southern portions of the
forecast area for Friday night. This will cover areas where
subzero wind chills are expected, and will roughly extend from
Helena through Oxford and Tupelo. Further north, subzero wind
chills are likewise Friday night, but there are low probabilities
of reaching the more stringent criteria -5 and -10.

There are two good pieces of news with this Arctic event: We
expect little to no wintry precipitation, and it will be fairly
quick as Arctic plunges go. By Sunday evening, we will already be
on the back side of the Arctic pressure ridge with southerly
winds.

An upstream ridge over TX will deamplify and lift across the
Midsouth Monday into Tuesday. Medium range guidance consensus
begins to weaken toward midweek with the phasing of northern and
southern branch lows over the plains. With that said, precip
chances appear on or about Tuesday, when a frontal passage
appears most likely to occur. Mild temperatures aside, there is
too much spread in the models to rule out wintry precip, given
uncertainty of the upper pattern and strength of the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Freezing fog chances will increase overnight as crossover
temperatures are met. Visibility reductions to 1/2 mile are
anticipated at all terminals except for TUP. Freezing fog will
slowly dissipate after sunrise, allowing VFR CIGs and light
southerly winds to prevail.

ANS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1150 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Moderate daytime humidity will prevail prior to the passage of a
strong Arctic cold front early Friday morning. Bitter cold
conditions will continue through the weekend.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Cold Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning
     for ARZ058.

MO...None.
MS...Extreme Cold Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning
     for MSZ010>013-015>017-020>024.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...PWB