Forecast Discussion
978 FXUS64 KMEG 280507 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1107 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1106 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 * Chilly weather will continue as below-normal temperatures persist through the Holiday weekend. * Rain will return to the Mid-South late Saturday through Sunday morning. A few snowflakes are possible early Saturday. * Significant uncertainty exists regarding a low-pressure system next Tuesday that could bring heavy rain or a mixed precipitation regime to the region. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1106 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 Surface high pressure continues to dominate the forecast following the passage of a cold front a few days ago. As such, dry air and cooler temperatures have followed. Lows on Friday morning will be at or below freezing in most locations due to optimal radiational cooling conditions. Temperatures will quickly rebound throughout Friday, reaching into the 40s and 50s during the afternoon. The large upper trough that has brought this week`s weather will begin to leave the area Friday, and with it, high pressure. Temperatures will still continue to be cool Saturday morning, but a new shortwave trough will have begun approaching the region. Warm advection will then commence ahead of this new wave with plenty of moisture transport above 925 mb. As this moisture arrives, isentropic lift above the leftover, cool air mass will begin to produce precipitation Saturday morning. Some models show the SFC - 700 mb profile below freezing, which would support the potential for a few snowflakes early Saturday morning. However, the air beneath 850 mb - 925 mb will be very dry with dew point depressions above 10 C. If this is the case Saturday, precipitation will struggle to reach the ground for several hours and would limit the potential for any accumulation. Eventually the warm advection will take over, and any wet-bulbing that takes place will be overcome with rain taking over through Saturday. A cold front will sweep into the region from the northwest throughout the day Sunday, pushing rain to our south. GEFS ensembles are in good agreement that the front will stall over central MS. Monday looks dry, but another wave will then approach from the west, amplifying Monday and will bring precipitation back to the forecast again. Although there were significant uncertainties within the past several forecast periods, ensembles are beginning to come into agreement regarding both the frontal passage and the upper pattern for the middle of next week. As the new shortwave reaches the Mid-South, the stalled boundary to our south will begin to organize into a surface low. Moisture will then overrun a newly- formed warm front into an airmass which is expected to have a temperature profile supportive of wintry weather. The complications in the forecast now exist at the mesoscale, particularly on how far north above-freezing temperatures in the SFC-850 mb layer will make it. This transition line from snow/sleet/freezing rain to just rain differs by hundreds of miles within ensemble members, making it difficult to judge who, if anybody, would receive impacts from wintry precipitation next week. Therefore, this forecast is still riddled with uncertainties regarding exact impacts but some form of precipitation is expected Tuesday. The main surface low will exit the region late Tuesday and into Wednesday morning, but the forecast is still a mixed bag regarding how long precipitation will abate. Some ensemble members keep producing QPF over the region Wednesday while others wait until dry the region out through the end of next week. However, temperatures are expected to generally remain above freezing, limiting the potential for impactful wintry precipitation after Tuesday through the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1106 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 VFR. High pressure drifting to the east over the Midsouth will result in light winds tonight, veering east to southeast tomorrow and tomorrow night. Light rain associated with a midlevel cloud deck(6-8k ft) will approach MEM around 29/12Z and JBR after 29/06Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1106 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 No significant fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Relative humidity values will remain above 30 percent across the area with light winds. Wetting rain chances increase Saturday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...JDS