Forecast Discussion

825
FXUS64 KMEG 281717
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1217 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

- Elevated fire danger is expected across the entire Mid-South
  today due to very low humidity and dry fuels. A Red Flag Warning
  is in effect for north Mississippi through this evening.

- Low-end fire danger potential will linger Sunday throughout the
  Mississippi River Delta as dry air and gusty winds remain.

- A significant warming trend will bring temperatures 10 to 15
  degrees above normal next week, with a 60% to 80% chance of
  rainfall starting Wednesday, lasting through the end of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

The passage of a cold front yesterday has ushered in a cool, dry
air mass across the Mid-South. Therefore, precipitation-free
weather is expected through this weekend with temperatures
climbing into the low 60s this afternoon. Dewpoints have dropped
significantly with afternoon dewpoint depressions forecast to
rise to anywhere between 25 and 30 F this afternoon, yielding
minimum relative humidity values well below 30%. Although wind
will weaken through today, dry fuels, particularly those produced
by January`s ice storm across northern Mississippi, and
sufficiently low relative humidity values will bring an elevated
risk for dangerous fire weather through this evening. Winds will
turn to a southerly direction tonight as the area of high
pressure behind the front slides east, bringing enough moisture
to relieve the region of today`s notable fire danger Sunday. That
being said, minimum relative humidity values will still drop into
the low 30s with a 20% - 30% chance of dropping below 30% across
the Mississippi River delta, which would overlap with an area of
enhanced 15 - 20 mph wind gusts.

Northwesterly upper flow from behind the front will weaken and
become more zonal with time next week. Southerlies at the surface
will still remain, allowing for the advection of Gulf moisture
and warmer temperatures. Monday through Tuesday will remain dry
with highs reaching into the low to mid 80s. Some gusty winds are
expected across northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel as a
tighter pressure gradient sets up, but currently the odds of
25 mph sustained or 40 mph gusts remain below 50%. At this time,
a Wind Advisory is not expected.

Guidance continues to indicate an upper trough ejecting out of
the Rockies and into the central Plains by Wednesday with a cold
front arriving into the region later in the day. Sustained,
southerly moisture transport earlier through the week will help
moisten the atmosphere ahead of the system with 90th+ percentile
PWATs in place by Wednesday. NBM PoPs increase in tandem
Wednesday ahead of the upper system. However, there is still
large uncertainty in the position of the cold front between
guidance members, especially between the GFS and ECMWF, that will
impact chances for thunderstorms and the amount of rain we would
receive. One common trend between the two within the past few
forecast cycles has been the expansion of higher quality surface
moisture across the southern CONUS and a later arrival of the
cold front. This would tend to lean towards higher convective
chances, but the low-amplitude nature of this trough is only
expected to produce marginal (< 500 J/kg) MLCAPE within these
solutions. Therefore, widespread rain showers with isolated
thunderstorms are expected within low-end chances for severe
weather.

Any frontal passage Wednesday or Thursday is expected to remove
moisture briefly before recovering through the end of the week.
Ensembles keep upper troughing over the central CONUS with a
subtropical extension southwest into the eastern Pacific.
However, there are still uncertainties regarding the evolution of
these features through the rest of the period that decrease
forecast confidence. But a rainier, more unsettled pattern seems
likely into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions continue. Gusty (10 to 15 kts), northeasterly
winds will begin to subside this afternoon, falling back below
5 kts overnight. Winds will shift to southerly by tomorrow
morning, increasing in speed to around 10 kts near the end of the
current TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

A Red Flag Warning is in effect through this evening across
portions of northern Mississippi as a combination of very dry air
and elevated winds persist across the region. Minimum relative
humidity values are expected to bottom out anywhere from 20% to
35% this afternoon with gusty northeast winds of up to 20 mph
across the Red Flag Warning area. Elsewhere, winds will be
slightly weaker, but with similarly dry air, warranting a
Rangeland Fire Danger Statement through this evening.

Fire weather concerns are anticipated to remain through Sunday,
especially within the Mississippi River Delta. Short-term models
depict a region of locally drier air with minimum relative
humidity values below 30% and elevated southerly winds gusting up
to 20 mph. At this time, Red Flag Warning criteria are unlikely
to be met and another Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is expected
to be needed tomorrow as well.

Southerly moisture transport will eventually cover the entire
region into early next week. Minimum relative humidity values
will then rise above 30% starting Monday and they will remain
there through the rest of the week.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ002>006-009-
     011>017-020>024.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CMA