Forecast Discussion

389
FXUS64 KMEG 301804
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1204 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1203 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

- Driving conditions will remain hazardous through the weekend due
  to the re-freezing of melted wintry precipitation.

- Frigid temperatures and single digit to negative wind chills are
  expected across the Mid-South, tonight into Sunday morning as an
  Arctic airmass settles back into the area.

- Temperatures will warm next week with rain chances increasing on
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

12Z upper air analysis and GOES Water Vapor satellite trends show
a shortwave trough stretching from the Canadian Maritimes into
the Upper Midwest. The Lower Mississippi Valley remains under the
influence of an upper level trough which encompasses the eastern
half of the United States. Areas east of the Mississippi River
are seeing a few low to mid clouds, while sunny skies prevail
elsewhere. Late morning temperatures are in the lower 30s over
portions of north central and northeast Mississippi and 20s
across the remainder of the Mid-South. Confidence remains high
(>90% chance) for bitterly cold temperatures and wind chill
values this weekend.

Short-term model trends indicate a shortwave trough will rotate
through the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys late tonight
into Saturday morning. Any precipitation is expected to remain
upstream over Kentucky and Middle and East Tennessee. A 1044 mb
surface high will build in across the region this weekend,
resulting in a return of cold arctic air for the weekend.
Elevated winds this evening combined with temperatures falling
into the teens will produce wind chill values down to the single
digits below zero. Winds are expected to be lighter for the
remainder of the weekend with the coldest temperatures occurring
Saturday night into Sunday morning as temperatures fall back into
the teens to single digits above zero. The current Extreme Cold
Warning and Cold Weather remain in effect with no changes needed
at this time.

Temperatures will finally moderate above freezing towards early
next week as shortwave ridging builds in across the Lower
Mississippi Valley. The next chance for precipitation will come
by the middle of next week as a shortwave trough embedded within
northwest flow aloft moves through the area.  LREF probabilities
of rainfall exceeding 0.5 inches remains low around 20-30% at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Clouds are lifting and/or scattering out across the airspace at
the 18z issuance. Winds will begin to increase in speed and
become gusty overnight as a strong area of high pressure begins
to sink south. The HRRR was pretty adamant at 925mb wind speeds
hovering between 35-40 kts over MEM, leading to the inclusion of
a WS mention for a brief period.

MOS guidance is not as heavy on MVFR cigs, but the HREF had at
least a 50 percent chance of a narrow window of high-end MVFR
cigs overnight at all terminals. Model soundings however do not
favor a strong moisture with the exception of TUP. Probabilities
of IFR ceilings developing are much too low, so monitoring for
MVFR development will be the target of opportunity.

DNM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1203 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

A cold and dry air mass will overspread the Mid-South this
weekend, leading to frigid temperatures through Sunday. MinRH
will remain in the 45 to 60 percent range through early next
week. 20ft winds may exceed 10 kts on Saturday, but fuel moisture
remains plenty enough to preclude any fire weather threat.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday
     for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Saturday
     for ARZ058.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for
     ARZ058.

MO...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday
     for MOZ113-115.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday
     for MSZ001>009-014.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Saturday
     for MSZ010>013-015>017-020>024.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for
     MSZ010>013-015>017-020>024.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday
     for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...DNM