Forecast Discussion
794 FXUS64 KMEG 042314 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 514 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 513 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026 - Record-challenging warmth will build into the Mid-South this week, with highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s by Tuesday. - Our next shot at showers and thunderstorms returns Thursday, with a low (< 15%) potential for severe weather on Friday. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1108 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026 Upper level ridging will continue to build into the Mid-South through Monday, kicking off an impressive warming trend for early January. Highs will increase each day with temperatures reaching the low 70s as early as Tuesday. Record-challenging warmth remains in the forecast, particularly for north Mississippi, towards the end of the week. Currently, Tupelo is forecast to reach 72F on Thursday. This would only be one degree below the record 73F set back in 2006. Elsewhere in the Mid-South, temperatures will be anomalously warm but are forecast to remain below record levels. Our weather pattern will begin to change on Wednesday as a weak cold front approaches the Mid-South. This boundary will struggle to overcome strong upper level ridging, effectively ending the forward propagation of the front somewhere over Mississippi. Elsewhere on Wednesday, a closed upper level low will develop off the western coast of Baja California. As this system pushes east, it will transform to an open wave over the Desert Southwest and phase with a developing trough. Ensemble guidance continues to struggle with the precise evolution of this system, but does favor cyclogenesis over the state of Texas on Thursday. Ahead of this system, the aforementioned cold front will retreat as a warm front over the Mid-South, advecting moist Gulf air into the region. Dewpoints will surge to the low 60s by midday Thursday with precipitable water values approaching the 99th percentile. All signs point to a potential severe weather setup on Friday as this system continues east, but several caveats exist. The best forcing with this system remains displaced to our north, away from the greatest dewpoints. In addition, ensembles struggle with advecting appreciable CAPE into our region with the GEFS only showing a 10% chance of >500 J/kg of SBCAPE reaching into north Mississippi. This would yield a high shear, low CAPE environmental setup, which is typical for this time of year. I will note that the latest EFI/SOT did increase slightly from yesterday, meaning there is a tad more confidence in severe potential Friday. In addition, both CSU and CIPS machine learning models are beginning to pick up on this potential. For now, expect the end of the week to be rainy with thunderstorms. Further severe weather details will be ironed out in the coming days. The good news is that after Friday, a return to seasonable temperatures is anticipated as a cold front swings through Saturday morning. Expect the upcoming weekend to be dry with temperatures in the 40s and 50s. ANS && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 513 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace. Light south winds will pick at around 10 kts tomorrow afternoon and remain through the TAF period. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1108 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026 Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 50 percent for the upcoming week, keeping fire weather concerns to a minimum. In addition, 20ft winds will stay between 5 and 10 mph. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...AEH