Forecast Discussion
225
FXUS64 KMEG 290530
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1130 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
- Gusty winds, between 35 to 45 mph, are expected across the Mid-South
through early Monday morning.
- A significant drop in temperatures is expected on Monday and Tuesday.
The combination of cold air and gusty winds will bring wind
chills into the teens and 20s both mornings.
- Chilly mornings will continue through the rest of the workweek, but
afternoon temperatures will rise into the 40s and 50s beyond
mid-week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Strong surface cyclogenesis has occurred beneath a powerful upper
shortwave trough that is currently traveling over the Great Lakes
Region. An arctic air mass has managed to plunge south into the
central CONUS behind the developing surface low and has made its
way to the Mid-South this evening. Some convection was able to
develop along the boundary along a weak axis of instability,
subsequently decreasing in intensity after sunset. However,
downward mixing of winds along the leading edge of the front,
especially in areas of heavier precipitation, has allowed for
wind gusts in excess of 40 mph to reach the ground across the
western half of the region this evening. The leading edge of the
front is still clearly visible within radar imagery as of 04z,
and will continue to move south and east through the evening with
precipitation leaving the region between 1 a.m. and 3 a.m. Given
the presence of stronger winds that have occurred tonight, we
have opted to expand the Wind Advisory to cover the entire region
through 6 a.m. Monday.
The main driver for the power of this front is an impressive
temperature gradient that was observed as it traveled the central
CONUS, and now the Mid-South. Temperatures are expected to
quickly fall as the front passes, and will continue to steadily
drop through the rest of the night area-wide. By Monday morning,
the majority of the region will be below freezing and areas north
of I-40 below 30 F. Winds will still remain and will allow cold
air advection to dominate the temperature forecast tomorrow,
keeping highs in the 30s and low 40s alongside wind chills in the
20s.
The upper shortwave will exit the CONUS late Monday, swinging
north and further amplifying into a longer-wave trough over
Ontario and Quebec with a mature surface low beneath it. Winds
aloft along the western flank of the upper system will then be
deflected south, placing the eastern CONUS in a northwesterly
flow regime. This pattern will keep high pressure and cooler
temperatures over southern CONUS through at least the middle of
the week. Therefore, cold temperatures are expected to remain
Tuesday with lows in the 20s, potentially colder depending on
radiational cooling conditions. Light winds will also pull wind
chills into the low 20s and teens.
The longwave trough will still be in place over eastern Canada on
Wednesday with a now old, arctic air mass still present across
the region. By this point in the forecast, cold advection will
have significantly weakened. Due to the lack of advection and dry
air, diurnal heating will begin to control the temperature
forecast throughout the day, bringing highs back into the 40s and
50s through the end of the week alongside dry weather.
Ensembles are in good agreement that our next chances for
precipitation are on Friday and Saturday as the remnants of an
upper low originating from the east Pacific reach the Mid-South.
The upper pattern will be split with the energy associated from
the old upper low stretched out across the southern CONUS in a
zonal band of enhanced flow. Beneath the broader westerlies
aloft, an 850 mb - 700 mb jet will impinge on the dry air mass
over the region, promoting some isentropic lifting across the
southern half of the region. Forecast soundings across north
Mississippi, where most of the rain is expected to fall, show
shallow moisture only up to about 500 mb. As such, QPF amounts
have struggled to eclipse 0.5" Friday through Saturday.
Furthermore, convection and thunder are not expected with no
instability present. Precipitation chances will exit the region
once the moisture with the nose of the low-level jet exits to our
east Saturday. High pressure is expected to return again Saturday
evening with lows in the 30s, but highs will still stay in the
40s and 50s through the end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Conditions across the Mid-South vary from west to east due to a
frontal passage that brought rain, wind, and MVFR CIGs. Expect
ceilings to improve to VFR and residual showers to cease by
sunrise. Gusty winds around 25 kts are anticipated through Monday
evening.
ANS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Minimum RH values will drop significantly behind a cold front
passing through the region Sunday night into Monday morning.
Wetting rains tonight will counteract the moisture for a short
time before, but minimum RH values will be between 30 percent and
40 percent through at least Tuesday afternoon. Strong 20 ft winds
in excess of 15 knots tonight will slowly weaken through the
forecast, dropping to around 5 knots Monday night into Tuesday.
Temperatures will also drop with highs in the 30s and low 40s
Monday and Tuesday. Wind chills Tuesday morning are expected to
be in the low 20s and into the teens.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
036-048-049-058.
MO...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for MOZ113-115.
MS...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...ANS
