Forecast Discussion

149
FXUS64 KMEG 231135
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
635 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s through
  Thursday.

- Unsettled weather will return Friday morning and afternoon with
  a Slight (level 2/5) Risk of severe weather. Additional
  thunderstorms are possible again Friday night into Saturday.

- Conditions will be favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms
  on Monday. We continue to monitor this potential.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Mild conditions are expected to continue through Thursday as
upper level ridging remains over the region. Troughing will
continue to tread eastward, pushing the ridge away from the
region through Friday. This will cause a southerly wind shift in
response to deepening low pressure across the plains below the
upper troughing. Temperatures will continue to rise into the mid
80s accordingly with a noticeable increase in moisture through
the end of the week.

Models continue to indicate that a broken line of convection will
enter the region Monday morning from the northwest. Guidance
indicates that the early Friday morning parameter space will be
somewhat lackluster with most CAPE remaining elevated with less
than 30 knots of bulk shear. Therefore, storms are not expected
to pose a significant threat for severe weather through the
morning hours. Depending on the forward speed of the front, a
diurnal uptick in instability could allow for a reinvigoration of
the line through the early afternoon. However, much of the
dynamical support is expected to lag behind the morning
convection, which should lead to a general weakening trend
through the early afternoon. Another point to make is that the
boundary accompanying the storms will stall somewhere within the
Mid-South, which could act as a focus point for additional
convection Friday evening and into Saturday morning. As such,
much of the short-term guidance suite (REFS/HRRR/NAM) indicates
an uptick in convection during this timeframe as the low level
jet ramps up overnight. Confidence still remains low in this
scenario given weak background dynamics and large variability in
the position of the boundary. If storms are able to ignite
overnight, they would most likely pose a damaging wind, hail, and
local flash flooding threat. In any case, expect low-end damaging
winds with morning convection and a conditional threat of
additional severe storms overnight Friday and into Saturday
morning.

The overall synoptic pattern will continue to consist of upper
level troughing to north and west with broad, quasi-zonal flow
over the central CONUS through this weekend. The Mid-South will
remain along the nose of the jet, where subtle shortwaves are
expected to keep the forecast unsettled into next week with low -
medium (less than or equal to 50%) PoPs Saturday and Sunday as
thunderstorms. A few strong to severe thunderstorms could occur,
but in general severe convection appears unlikely at this time
Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

On Monday morning, a stronger upper jet streak will have
propagated into the Southern Plains from within the subtropical
jet with strong ensemble support. Phasing with the polar trough
to the north, this system will amplify as it continues east
towards the Mid-South. A surface low will then deepen across the
Midwest in response with a Pacific cold front extending south.
Multiple days of antecedent, southerly advection will bring dew
points in the upper 60s to low 70s as far north as the Ohio
River, occupying the majority of the Mid-South. The latest LREF
guidance paints a telling picture of this type of parameter space
with a 70% - 80% chance of 1500+ J/kg SBCAPE and 40+ knots of
bulk shear Monday afternoon and evening over the majority of the
region. This is a huge signal for severe weather, especially at 4-
5 days out and signifies that Monday is likely to be a day to
look out for. However, it does still appear too early to tell
exactly which severe hazards will be most likely as models have
yet to converge on key features such as the position of the
surface low and potency of the low level jet. Regardless, the
overlap of CAPE and shear does at least highlight the risk for
severe wind and hail. Following this trend SPC has maintained the
Slight (level 2/5) Risk for Monday as of last night.

The Pacific front will pass through the region Monday night, but
will stall before completely scouring the southern CONUS of
moisture. Ensembles continue to be in agreement past Monday,
keeping the upper jet quasi-zonal through the middle of next
week. This would keep us in the unsettled pattern with low to
medium (30% - 50%) PoPs through next Thursday as the front works
its way back north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR conds will prevail during the period. A tightening pressure
gradient across most of the area will result in gusts at JBR,
MEM, and MKL by mid-morning. Surface gusts will diminish this
evening, though marginal LLWS will develop at JBR, MEM, and MKL
as the low-level jet strengthens. An outflow boundary with SHRAs
and possibly some TSRAs is likely to move through the Memphis
area during the late morning on Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Low fire danger expected Thursday as southerly winds increase
moisture throughout the day, leading to minimum relative humidity
values between 35% and 45%. 20 ft winds will increase to around
10 mph or above, especially across northeastern Arkansas and the
Missouri Bootheel. Low fire danger will continue into Friday as a
line of showers and storms passes through the region alongside a
continued increase in surface moisture.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...SJM