Forecast Discussion

682
FXUS64 KMEG 270503
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1203 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

- There is a medium chance for a line of storms to pass through
  the region tonight with a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk for damaging
  winds.

- A Slight (level 2/5) Risk to Enhanced (level 3/5) Risk for
  damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes covers much of the
  Mid-South Monday through early Tuesday morning.

- Another round of severe weather is expected Tuesday evening into
  early Wednesday morning with a Slight (2/5) Risk in effect
  across the entire Mid-South.

- Weather will cool off and dry out through the end of next week
  with highs returning to the 70s and low 80s as early as
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A warm front is currently lifting north across the region in
response to a deepening surface low over the central Plains.
Tropical moisture will stream in behind the front with dewpoints
rising into the upper 60s and low 70s tonight. Although moisture
will be high, precipitation is not forecast for at least the
first few hours of the period as the front continues north. But
as we progress through the night, several forecast cycles from
the HRRR and multiple REFS members show storms to our west
congealing into an MCS and entering the region early this
morning. Instability will be on the rise thanks to the tropical
air mass streaming into the region and would allow for damaging
wind potential through this morning. However, there is still
considerable run-to-run inconsistency with this aspect of the
forecast and additional changes are likely through the night as
we monitor trends. So, for the time being, SPC has placed
portions of eastern AR, the MO Bootheel, and West TN in a
marginal risk through 7 a.m for damaging straight line winds.

Surface cyclogenesis will continue into Monday afternoon with
additional warm advection expected throughout the day as a 60 -
80 knot 500 mb jet streak overspreads the central CONUS. Surface
dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s will yield MLCAPE values
of 2500+ J/kg by late afternoon in areas that do not see moisture
scoured out by morning storms. As the jet streak noses into the
region during the late evening hours, bulk shear values will rise
above 40 knots alongside ESRH values climbing above 250 m2/s2.
Storms are expected to initiate along a cold front north of the
region through the day and eventually migrate south into this
environment through the night. This mode of convection will most
likely take the form of a broken line of supercells and bowing
line segments capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few
tornadoes. The potential for storms to initiate in the open warm
sector still exists, especially if morning storms are able to aid
in the development of a modified outflow boundary or if enough
prefrontal troughing exists even within a hostile synoptic
environment. If storms can develop ahead of the line tomorrow
evening, they would be the storms with the highest potential for
large hail and potentially strong tornadoes. Eventually, the
front from our north will move through the region and make its
way into northern Mississippi early Tuesday morning with a
continued damaging wind and tornado threat.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to still be
ongoing along the front Tuesday morning across northern
Mississippi. Upper height rises will be occurring at the same
time as the upper trough from Monday lifts north out of the
CONUS, slowing down the southerly progression of the front.
Another jet streak and low amplitude upper trough will eject into
the southern Plains late Tuesday morning, traveling east towards
the middle Mississippi River Valley through the afternoon. Enough
of a surface response is expected ahead of the new jet streak for
2000 J/kg MLCAPE to develop across much of the region. CAMs, NAM,
and RAP guidance blow up convection as the upper lift arrives
with the trough in conjunction with roughly 50 knots of effective
bulk shear. Therefore, organized convection appears likely again
Tuesday afternoon through the overnight hours into early
Wednesday morning. The exact storm mode is still unlikely, but
CAMs seem to prefer a messier mode that quickly grows upscale
into a large MCS or several bowing line segments capable of
mainly damaging winds. The large hail and tornado threat will be
higher within storms that can remain more discrete.

A surface front will finally clear the area Wednesday with a few
lingering storms through morning and early afternoon hours which
could pose a low-end threat of damaging winds and hail. Cooler,
drier weather will follow late Wednesday and Thursday, where
highs are expected to only rise into the 70s and low 80s. Another
shortwave trough will eject from the southern Rockies Thursday
and make its way east through the southern CONUS, reaching the
Mid-South Friday. Rain showers are expected as this system passes
with no expectation for thunderstorms at this time. The rest of
the forecast will then remain cool and dry as high pressure
returns behind Friday`s trough.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Hi-res guidance continues to be a moving target. As such,
confidence remains on the low end regarding TSRA potential. The
biggest change this cycle was to remove VCSH and VCTS through
tomorrow morning at MEM and JBR respectively. Coverage of -TSRA
will be heavily dependent on the evolution of a convective system
over southern Missouri over the next 3 to 12 hours. PROB30s were
added as placeholders for potential timing of -TSRAs through the
period. Another round of TSRA will affect all sites tomorrow
evening as a cold front moves into the region.  Coverage of
storms at each TAF site remains uncertain.

High confidence resides in strong southerly winds developing
tomorrow morning in response to a deepening surface low over the
Middle Mississippi Valley. Wind gusts up to 30 kts at both JBR
and MEM with up to 25 kts at MKL and TUP. Another round of TSRA
is forecast to affect all sites tomorrow evening as a cold front
moves into the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Upcoming showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday will keep
minimum relative humidity values above 40% through the forecast
period. In conjunction with weak 20 ft winds, fire danger is
expected to be low through the period.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ009-018-026-028.

MO...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...AC3