Forecast Discussion
277 FXUS64 KMEG 251806 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 106 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 - Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase towards Sunday night as a warm front moves through the Mid-South. There is a low chance for a few strong storms late Sunday. - Conditions continue to remain favorable for severe thunderstorm development late Monday afternoon into Monday night, and again Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 This morning`s upper-air analysis featured nearly zonal flow aloft over portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Late morning surface analysis placed a weak quasi- stationary boundary from Middle Tennessee back through central Mississippi and into the Red River Valley of Texas and Oklahoma. Visible satellite trends show diurnal cumulus prevalent across the Mid-South with noon temperatures in the 70s. Mostly rainfree conditions are expected to prevail across the Mid- South this afternoon as weak shortwave ridging will be present. Short-term CAMs indicate a low chance (< 20%) of an isolated shower or two late this afternoon across portions of north Mississippi and West Tennessee near the Mississippi River. Confidence in coverage remains too low to include any rain mention in the forecast at this time. Rain chances are expected to gradually increase for Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as the aforementioned surface boundary retreats back north as a warm front across the Lower Mississippi Valley. A period of active weather is expected to set up across the region Monday as a negatively tiled shortwave trough rotates through the Upper Midwest and portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley. Low level moisture is expected to increase across the region Monday with a capping inversion present in wake of the warm front. Surface-based CAPE values are expected to increase to 2000-3000 J/kg by Monday afternoon. A robust parameter space, including 0-6 km shear in excess of 40 kts, strong instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, 0-1 km storm relative helicity values between 200-300 m2/s2, and curved hodographs suggest the most likely mode of convection will be mostly supercells during this event once the capping inversion breaks late Monday afternoon into early Monday evening. Confidence remains medium to high for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop across the Mid- South with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes as the threats. A secondary severe thunderstorm threat is anticipated for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as another mid-level shortwave trough moves through the region with a quasi-stationary boundary located across the region. LREF joint probabilities of surface- based CAPE values greater than 1500 J/kg and shear in excess of 30 kts indicate a medium to high chance (60-80%) for strong to severe thunderstorms especially along and south of I-40. An early look at the parameter space favors large hail and damaging winds as the threats. Long term model trends show decreasing rain chances for mid to late next week as the aforementioned front moves toward the Gulf Coast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 VFR conditions will prevail over the next 30 hours. Light and variable winds, behind a front, will continue through the overnight hours. Fog is expected to spread across MEM/MKL/TUP overnight along saturated soils, a weak low-level inversion, and light winds. Fog will lift around sunrise tomorrow as winds shift southeast at around 5-8 kts. Light and isolated showers will pass across the Mid-South tomorrow afternoon, however, TAF sites are not expected to be impacted. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Recent rainfall and upcoming showers and thunderstorms into early next week will keep minimum relative humidity values above 40% through the forecast period. In conjunction with weak 20 ft winds, fire dangers are expected to be low through the period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...AEH