Forecast Discussion
621 FXUS64 KMEG 071717 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1117 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1116 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 - There is a low chance (less than 15 percent) of severe weatherfor areas near the Tennessee River Friday afternoon. Damaging winds and hail are the main threats. - A pattern change will bring the first hard freeze (temperatures at or below 28 degrees) of the season Monday and Tuesday mornings. - Temperatures return to near normal by mid week as dry conditions continue. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Thursday) Issued at 1116 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 A cold front is making its initial approach from the Central Plains this morning. We already have some WAA showers lifting NE across the region, which will likely continue on and off throughout the afternoon before the pre-frontal convection materializes. Latest CAMs continue to suggest that the bulk of the stronger storms will not be able to really fire up until the convection has exited into Middle TN tonight. This is quite a conditional severe weather threat, contingent on whether the instability axis will be outrun by the actual convection. In other words, storms may be out of here before the environment becomes supportive for severe weather. Forecast storm mode is linear but not remotely organized; most of these will be weak showers with a few embedded thunderstorms starting around 3PM, ending by 9PM at the latest. Damaging winds and large hail would be the primary threats if we do get some outlier strong thunderstorms. With the front continuing to make very slow southeastward progress overnight, plenty of moisture in the region combined with light winds may promote patchy fog development early Saturday morning, especially across West Tennessee. This same boundary will eventually stall across central MS/AL late Saturday evening. This is a fairly significant change from previous forecasts where it had stalled farther north, which would`ve put the Mid-South in another potential severe weather situation on Saturday afternoon as that front got its second wind. Since the front is expected to stall much farther south now and we will be on the cool side of the boundary, the severe weather potential is pretty much nil. PoPs have also decreased below 20% for Saturday as well with this change. A very cold and very dry airmass is on the way Sunday night with a reinforcing cold front. Strong CAA and optimal radiational cooling conditions will cause temperatures to absolutely plummet overnight Sunday into Monday morning. These sub-freezing temperatures early next week will have the highest impact in this forecast period. We haven`t had a true hard freeze yet this season, so this will be the first official killing freeze that ends the growing season. Temperatures will be in the 20s pretty much areawide both Monday and Tuesday mornings. Highs will barely climb out of the 40s on Monday as the 1030 mb surface high is directly overhead with an airmass originating from the Hudson Bay. This pattern is fairly progressive so we`ll moderate back to normal pretty quickly by midweek with the return of southerly flow as the surface high exits off to the Atlantic coast. Dry conditions prevail for the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 MVFR cloud deck is currently moving across the airspace with isolated SHRA. Think impacts related to SHRA will be minimal, so kept mainly as PROB30s or TEMPO grouping for airports. MVFR cigs will lift by this evening. Starting to see a decent signal for fog development overnight, especially for MKL and TUP. Occasional gusts upwards of 20 mph will linger over the next few hours, with winds subsiding after 00Z across the airspace. Expect for winds to remain light and veer around the horn until the end of the current TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1116 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 Showers and thunderstorms will not offer much of any wetting rain overnight as a cold front passes. Forecast QPF is less than 0.1 inches. Cold and dry conditions move in this weekend behind the front. Monday and Tuesday afternoons look the driest by far with MinRHs falling below 35% both days, but cold temperatures and light winds should mitigate fire danger. Humidity and temperatures increase again midweek. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...CMA