Forecast Discussion
799 FXUS64 KMEG 011723 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1121 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 - Temperatures will warm to near normal on Monday with rain chances returning Tuesday. - The end of the week will be dry with temperatures slightly below normal. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1121 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 Surface analysis as of 10 AM depicts a 1036mb area of high pressure centered over Little Rock, Arkansas. An upper level cloud deck is currently traversing southeast and entering northeast Arkansas with very light returns depicted on KNQA. Typical of arctic air masses, the clouds try to squeeze out every bit of moisture, leading to chances of light flurries along and north of I-40 through the day into this evening. No accumulations or impacts are expected. Temperatures are likely to exceed the freezing mark today south of I-40, and again areawide tomorrow. The aforementioned surface high will gradually slide east over the next few days allowing for a southerly flow regime to reign. This is what will drive our temperatures to near normal with WAA. With increased warm air and moisture, rain chances do return ahead of a leading shortwave Tuesday morning into Wednesday. Probabilities of receiving an inch of rain have decreased since 24 hours ago, but probabilities of receiving 0.75" of rain or more are still around 35%. The higher probabilities do reside across north Mississippi, with less accumulation expected elsewhere. PW values are nearing the 90th percentile for this time of year, so very heavy rainfall is unlikely. Probabilities from the LREF of CAPE values exceeding 100 J/kg are negligible, so no thunderstorms are expected with this activity. Lack of thunderstorms should not enhance rain rates which should keep QPF values close to current trends. The leading shortwaves parent low and aforementioned cold front will follow very quickly in tow. The cold front will clear the area by Wednesday morning, leaving a chilly kick off for midweek in the northern tier. Thursday will be another cold one as all the cold air finally sinks and encompasses the entire region. The NBM has a 100% chance of Thursday morning low temperatures sub- freezing areawide. Thankfully, this will rebound quickly by the afternoon hours as southerly flow returns once more. Long range guidance suggests another frontal passage this upcoming weekend, along with additional rain chances. However, run-to-run inconsistencies continue to make precise timing and impacts too early to tell. DNM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 Mid/upper level clouds will intermittently move through the airspace through the period, but VFR conditions continue to prevail. Light winds will gradually shift from NW to S by sunset tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1121 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 Light 20ft winds and MinRH values above 50 percent will keep fire weather concerns to a minimum through the end of next week. Wetting rain chances return Tuesday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...CAD