Forecast Discussion
817 FXUS64 KMEG 041133 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 633 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will impact the Mid-South today. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening, with damaging winds the primary hazard. - Generally benign weather is anticipated Sunday through the end of next week. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal early in the week, gradually warming through the work week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1054 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 As of 11PM, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms is located over central Arkansas with a more robust line of convection along a cold front over Oklahoma. This leading wave will reach the Mid- South over the next several hours, producing rain showers. Thunderstorm chances will increase around sunrise as the aforementioned line of storms moves into the region. SBCAPE will be on the increase throughout the day with the highest values centering over northeast MS by early afternoon (around 1000 J/kg). This, combined with bulk shear of 30 kts, will produce a marginal damaging wind threat as storms approach the MS/AL border. Upscale storm growth will be hindered by lack- luster midlevel lapse rates. Storms will exist in an environment consisting of surface lapse rates around 8.0 - 8.5 C/km and midlevel rates of 5.0 C/km. Initially, storms will have no issue popping up, but the lackluster midlevel lapse rates will limit the overall severe potential. As of now, CSU Machine Learning Probabilities are only pinging a marginal wind threat, which is in line with the current Storm Prediction Center outlook. Rainfall totals will remain in the 1 to 1.5 inch range with this system. While this will be beneficial, it will not be the drought buster rain event the Mid-South is in search of. Showers and thunderstorms will clear the area by Sunday morning, allowing northerly winds and cooler temperatures to filter into the region. Highs Sunday through Tuesday will be much more seasonable - in the 60s and 70s. Models continue to show a non- impactful shortwave moving over the area on Wednesday. Behind this feature, temperatures will increase through the remainder of the work week. Warm and humid conditions will be in place through the upcoming weekend. Long range guidance continues to hint at rain chances next weekend. For now though, it remains too early to tell potential impacts. Stay tuned. ANS && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Expect SHRA coverage to increase areawide through the morning. TSRA coverage over central and northern AR decreased in the predawn hours, but will likely experience an uptick near the MS River toward midmorning. That said, 00Z HREF TS probabilities and and 09Z HRRR lightning density aren`t particularly high A brief period of IFR CIGs will be possible behind a late afternoon/early evening cold frontal passage. Confidence is relatively high regarding a transition to VFR tonight, in a deeply-mixed and dry polar airmass. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1054 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 Wetting rain chances will exist areawide on Saturday. Early next week, a dry air mass will move into the area with MinRH around 30 percent. Elevated fire weather concerns may materialize Monday and Tuesday, but increasing moisture will hamper concerns by Wednesday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...PWB