Forecast Discussion
212 FXUS64 KMEG 151745 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1145 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1145 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 - There is a 15 to 30 percent chance of rain Friday afternoon into Friday evening ahead of another cold front. A few flurries could occur, but no impacts with this frontal passage are expected. - Mostly below normal temperatures are expected to continue into the weekend and early next week. - The next chance of rain will arrive during the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1145 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 A 1026 mb surface high pressure system is centered over eastern Texas this morning. This system will track to the north Gulf coast this afternoon with clear skies and cold temperatures across the Mid-South. Highs will range from the mid 30s in northeast Tennessee to the lower 40s across east-central Arkansas and north Mississippi. Southerly flow will begin to increase tonight ahead of the next cold front. Coldest temperatures will occur across eastern sections, where winds will be lighter for longer. Lows will dip into the mid 20s along the Tennessee River. A strong cold front will push into the region Friday and Friday night. Clouds will be on the increase throughout the day on Friday. Milder south and southwest winds will push temps into the upper 40s and lower 50s. A potent shortwave will accompany this front along with a strengthening, powerful upper-level jet. As the front and shortwave approach, lift and moisture increase across the region. Scattered Light rain showers will start to develop mainly east of the MS River during the afternoon, continuing into the evening. The best chances for measurable precipitation will be along the TN River, with better chances east of the Mid-South. Colder air will start filtering in as the front moves through, with a low chance of a brief mix or a few flurries Friday evening before precipitation ends. No impacts are expected. Lows will drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s by Saturday morning. Cold air will continue to filter in during the weekend with the core of the coldest air set to arrive Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Lows are expected to fall into the teens with highs in 30s areawide on Sunday. Dangerous wind chills dipping the upper single digits and lower teens are forecast for Sunday morning. A piece of upper-level energy rotating around the main longwave eastern CONUS trough will trigger a surface low along the Gulf Coast and a chance of snow across parts of the Deep South, south of I-20. Stay abreast if you have travel plans south and east of our region. A dry, reinforcing cold front will arrive early next week with highs in the 30s and lower 40s and lows in the teens and 20s continuing. The main eastern US trough will shift east by the middle and end of next week, resulting in strong zonal flow aloft across the Mid-South with fast-moving disturbances and a chance of rain by Wednesday and Thursday. Temps will be somewhat milder and close to normal. The slightly milder temps could be short- lived as more cold air is forecast to build over Canada and perhaps move south into the region later next week into next weekend. Forecast uncertainty at that timeframe is quite high. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Northerly winds will veer south this evening and increase to 10kts overnight. Confidence in LLWS has increased this issuance, so included FL020 winds of 40kts at all sites through sunrise. LLWS will linger longer at TUP, subsiding just after the end of the period. There is a low (