Forecast Discussion

970
FXUS64 KMEG 131214
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
614 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 610 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

- A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of West
  Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel and eastern Arkansas Sunday
  morning for wind chills dropping below 5 degrees.

- Arctic air will bring the coldest temperatures of the season from
  Saturday night through Monday morning, with wind chills
  dropping into the teens and single digits Sunday and Monday
  mornings.

- Temperatures will warm quickly to near-normal by Tuesday.
  Rain chances increase by the middle of next week as the pattern
  continues to warm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1114 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

One more mild day is in store for the Mid-South on Saturday
before an Arctic plunge. The CP airmass currently making its
approach has frigid origins that can be traced back to the Yukon
Territory. The (mostly) dry cold front will make its way down the
CONUS throughout the day Saturday and be closely followed by the
1040 mb Arctic surface high. The tightness of this pressure
gradient and resultant CAA scheme will add a brutally cold wind
chill factor given the brisk north winds. Current forecast
temperatures Sunday morning are in the upper teens, but with
northerly winds gusting up to 30 MPH, wind chills will plummet to
the single digits and maybe even negatives. As such, a Cold
Weather Advisory has been issued for much of West Tennessee for
Sunday morning. This is the kind of cold that comes with a danger
of frostbite within 30 minutes if left unprotected.

Although temperatures are technically colder by 5-10F Monday
morning, the surface high will be right over us and thus there is
no wind chill factor so it will feel warmer. The apparent
temperature (wind chill) and actual temperature will be pretty
much identical and will most likely not warrant another Cold
Weather Advisory for Monday. Regardless, this is still a brutally
cold morning with forecast lows in the teens areawide. Cold and
dry conditions will continue to prevail into Tuesday morning,
though each subsequent morning warms just a few degrees.

The upper level pattern remains progressive with another longwave
trough and associated cold front moving through on Thursday of
next week. Another tight pressure gradient will materialize with
this next front, but this time on the southerly wind side. The
timing of the frontal passage looks to be during the late
afternoon/evening after a whole day of strong WAA, which will
send temperatures soaring to 10+ degrees above normal in the mid
60s. PoPs are in the 50-60% range Thursday evening due to modest
PWATs around 1 inch, which is nearing the 90th percentile of
climatology for mid December. Looking into the extended period,
zonal flow aloft will promote benign weather starting next
weekend. The pattern will shift to mild and mostly dry without
any deep systems on the horizon past Thursday; CPC`s 6-10 day
outlook depicts a high chance (80-90%) of above normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Seeing less of a likelihood of low clouds this morning. Latest
guidance suggests that the deck will stall somewhere near MKL
with chances of lower cigs at JBR and MEM dropping. There has been
some fog/freezing fog development across NW TN there is a chance
this could sneak into MKL as well. Otrw arctic front will surge
through this evening with a period of MVFR cigs and gusty north
winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1114 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

An arctic cold front will traverse the area Saturday evening
bringing very dry and cold air. Minimum RH values beginning
Sunday will hover around 25% with bitter cold temperatures.
Humidity continues to stay between 25-30% on Monday as the dry
airmass remains firmly in place. Temperatures and humidity will
be on the rise by midweek as another cold front brings a 50-60%
chance of wetting rains.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Sunday
     for ARZ028-036.

MO...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Sunday
     for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Sunday
     for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...SJM