Forecast Discussion
302 FXUS64 KMEG 231734 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1234 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 - Mostly dry conditions will continue on Thursday, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. - Unsettled weather will return Friday with a Slight Risk (2/5) of severe weather. Damaging wind gusts are the main concern, but large hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Additional showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the weekend. - Conditions continue to look favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms on Monday, with at least a 30% chance in some locations. Please continue to monitor the forecast over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 Another spring-like day is currently persisting across the area with temperatures spanning the mid to upper 70s. We will see temperatures warm a few more degrees into this afternoon, with high temperatures peaking in the low to mid 80s. Moisture has begun to creep back into the area mainly west of the Mississippi River, with a few light showers currently showing up on radar. There will be a 10-15% chance of these showers through the remainder of the afternoon. Into tonight and Friday, a frontal boundary will push off of the Plains and approach the Mid-South early Friday morning. While there could be some lingering instability, these storms will likely be losing strength as they arrive into our area. However, some CAM guidance does have the boundary stalling over our area with a bit of a resurgence across the southern half of our area into the afternoon and evening hours on Friday. Instability remains a limiting factor due to any precipitation received in the morning, so confidence in the severe weather forecast for tomorrow is low. If a strong to severe thunderstorm were to develop, damaging wind gusts would be the main concern through the day. There is a very low chance for large hail and a tornado or two, mainly over Eastern Arkansas and Northwest Mississippi. Total rainfall amounts will likely be in the 1" to 1.5" range, with PWAT values in the 90th percentile (around 1" to 1.25" for the time of year). Into this weekend, our area will remain trapped in a somewhat unsettled pattern with multiple shortwaves bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. While this will likely not be a washout for the entire area for the entire weekend, it does warrant 40 - 60% PoPs through much of the weekend. Organized severe weather chances appear to be very low, but a strong storm or two in the afternoons cannot be ruled out. By Monday, a much stronger upper-level low will eject off of the Rocky Mountains, pushing quickly to the north. This will bring the potential for more widespread severe weather activity across the Mid-South by Monday afternoon to evening. This threat could persist into the overnight hours, but confidence is still low with timing due to this being in the Day 5 forecast space. SPC is highlighting a 30% risk area across our north, with a 15% risk area for the remainder of the Mid-South on Monday. While the exact areas for the outlook will likely move around over the next few days as the forecast becomes more refined, Monday does appear to be one of the better severe weather set-ups we have seen thus far this spring for the area. As such, we will continue to monitor this area in the coming days and encourage readers to review their severe weather safety and action plans. By Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period, the weather pattern looks to remain unsettled but there are still uncertainties. Guidance continues to struggle with the aforementioned upper-level low pressure as it moves to the north on Monday, with ENS/GEPS guidance favoring a more northerly progression and GEFS favoring a southerly progression. With the uncertainties, will keep 30 to 50% PoPs through the end of the period. CPC 6 to 10 day guidance does favor near to below normal temperatures with above normal temperatures, which does agree with latest forecast trends despite run to run uncertainties. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 VFR conditions currently prevail with gusty southerly winds. KNQA has picked up scattered, convective shower development along the MS River, but coverage is expected to remain low enough to refrain from any mention in the TAFs. Any showers will dissipate by 00z. VFR and southerly winds will continue overnight with an increase in southerly LLWS through 12z Friday. Thereafter, a front will arrive from the northwest, bringing SHRA and TSRA chances to JBR/MEM/MKL through the remainder of the forecast. Storms could produce MVFR visibility impacts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 Marginally dry conditions will persist through Thursday afternoon, with minRH values in the 35 - 40% range east of the Mississippi River. Additional moisture will return by Friday through the remainder of the current forecast period, with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Fire danger concerns will likely remain limited for the foreseeable future with these daily rain chances. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...JAB