Forecast Discussion
934 FXUS64 KMEG 152335 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 535 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 535 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 - A pattern change will bring dry conditions and well above normal temperatures, with highs in the mid 70s by Wednesday. - An unsettled weather pattern late week will bring shower and thunderstorm chances back to the forecast into the weekend. Temperatures will also edge closer to normal by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1208 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 A gloomy day is on display at this hour as a surface low is currently churning over northeast Mississippi. A stratus shield and shower bands are currently rotating east around this low. Dry air, upper-level northwest flow, and surface high pressure are quickly building in behind this low, aiding in showers diminishing pretty rapidly across the Mid-South. Rainfall totals over the past 24 hours can be quantified pretty well north and south of I-40 with around 1.5-2.5" north and 0.10-0.5" south. As the aforementioned low exits east, past our area, showers will diminish along with it by mid afternoon. With the current placement of the surface low and a tight pressure gradient on the backside of it, winds will remain gusty, up to 35 mph, through this afternoon. Due to persistent cloud cover, rainfall, and lingering mist, temperatures will likely under perform today with much of the Mid-South seeing highs in the 50s and across north Mississippi in the low 60s. By this evening, northwest flow aloft and surface high pressure will begin a transition in our weather pattern, decreasing winds and filtering in dry, warmer air. In this transition, light and variable winds, decent radiational cooling, and a low-level inversion along already saturated surfaces will create a susceptible environment for patchy to widespread fog overnight. Greatest fog potential will likely be north of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line, where most of our rainfall occurred. Dense fog is not anticipated at this time. By daybreak tomorrow, surface high pressure and upper-level ridging will begin to overspread the Mid-South from the Upper Plains. As such, a warming trend will occur with temperatures well into the 60s and some areas across northeast Mississippi potentially approaching the low 70s. This warming trend and dry conditions will continue into Thursday as upper-level ridging persists and broadens over the region. Wednesday and Thursday will be flirting with record high temperatures in the 70s. Thursday will be the warmest over the next 7 days as warm air advection, elevated southwest winds, and a warm front lifting north aid in warming. It will feel like Spring by mid-week. A few isolated sprinkles can`t be ruled out Thursday morning as this warm front lifts, especially along the Tennessee River. Thursday evening, this anomalously warm trend is expected to begin breaking down as ensembles are in decent agreement that a few potent shortwaves will eject into the Upper-Mississippi Valley from the midwest. Meanwhile down at the surface, a surface low over the southern Great Lakes region looks to materialize as an attendant cold front pushes into the Middle Mississippi Valley. These systems will give lift to our next shot at showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening and into Friday. Another wet weekend is on the horizon as well as a few shortwaves look to eject another system from the southern Plains late Friday and into Saturday. As we are still a little too far out to iron out the exact details on this late week system, deterministic (GFS and ECMWF) forecast soundings are displaying a decent swath of MUCAPE >500 J/kg and decent high falls Saturday. For now, however, just something to keep an eye on. AEH && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 535 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 An expansive stratus deck continues to cover the majority of the Mid-South while rain has moved off to the south and east away from all four terminals. In the meantime, IFR/MVFR stratus will continue overnight with the exception of JBR, which has seen CIGs erode to the southeast. Some continued erosion of the stratus deck is expected to continue into western Tennessee, but increasingly easterly winds aloft overnight are expected to halt the eastward progression of VFR. Therefore, MEM/MKL/TUP are expected to prevail MVFR through tonight with some clearing possible around MKL between 10z - 14z. Given that there has been ample clearing across northeastern Arkansas and that wetting rains have just fallen, fog potential is expected to increase tonight, particularly at JBR. NBM guidance shows 1 mi or less of visibility between 10z - 13z extending south into northeastern Arkansas from southern Missouri that could impact the terminal through Sunrise. Debated on including 1/2 mi FG, but confidence is not high enough with this issuance to include mentionable FG in this TAF issuance and will reevaluate at 06z. All terminals will be VFR by 18z, which will last through the end of the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1208 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Fire weather danger will remain at a minimum through at least midweek, aided by recent wetting rainfall. 20ft winds will be elevated today as we sit on the backside of a low pressure system. Warm and dry weather will return tomorrow and persist through at least Wednesday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...JAB