Forecast Discussion
933 FXUS64 KMEG 141132 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 532 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 530 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 - Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist through the weekend. - Gusty winds are expected Saturday, with potential criteria being met for a Wind Advisory. - Wet and unsettled weather, including periods of showers and thunderstorms, will return next week, with a potential for 1 to 3 inches of total rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1137 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue through this weekend as we remain in dry northwest flow aloft. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s with lows in the 50s each day or about 10 to 15 degrees above normal. The main impact on Saturday will be gusty winds ahead of an approaching front. The pressure gradient will tighten to around 6 to 7 mb across the forecast area, which supports the potential for gusty winds. NBM probabilities for sustained winds of 20 mph or more are quite high (70-90% range), suggesting that criteria for a Wind Advisory may be met. A weak cold front will move through the region early Sunday morning, but no rainfall is expected due to a very dry airmass in place. Synoptic models are in good agreement with a negatively tilted shortwave ejecting through the Plains on Monday. A surface low will develop and lift a warm front through the region Monday night into Tuesday. A ribbon of weak to moderate instability will move into the Mid-South, evidenced by up to 1200 J/kg of SBCAPE. Model guidance is consistent with the shortwave quickly deamplifying and surface low filling as it impinges on the Mid- South. This will effectively weaken the cold front and cause it to stall over the region. Although bulk shear is expected to be strong around 50 knots, weak mid level lapse rates will likely limit the strength of thunderstorms during the day. Continued bouts of showers and occasional thunderstorms will persist Tuesday through Wednesday as the front remains across the region. Wet and unsettled weather will continue and ramp up by midweek as a large trough sets up over the Inter-Mountain West and ejects several shortwaves downstream into the Lower Mississippi Valley through late week. Although timing and strength of each successive wave is poorly resolved, there remains a clear signal for copious amounts of rainfall through late next week. Early QPF totals range from 1 to 3 inches. The extended forecast keeps the subtropical jet active with upper level southwest flow over the Mid-South. This would translate to continued warm and unsettled weather. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 VFR currently prevails at all sites with an expansive area of VFR CIGs stretching north and south along the Mississippi River Delta. CIGs are expected to last for a few hours at JBR/MEM after the start of the forecast period, potentially reaching TUP/MKL. These CIGs are expected to dissipate through this morning where gusty winds will begin. MEM/JBR could see southerly winds gust up to 20 knots during this afternoon, abating after sunset. VFR will prevail once more tonight with gusty southerly winds returning tomorrow morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1137 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Temperatures will remain well above normal through Saturday, with minimum relative humidity values likely remaining above 35 percent. Transport winds and mixing heights will generally be low to moderate. However, southerly flow will increase today and become strong on Saturday. Overall burning conditions will remain good to moderate through this weekend. High chances for wetting rain will return throughout much of next week. Early rainfall totals range from 1 to 3 inches. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...JAB