Forecast Discussion
188
FXUS64 KMEG 240531
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1131 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
- A significant winter storm will impact the Mid-South beginning
tonight with heavy snow, sleet, and ice accumulations expected
through Sunday afternoon.
- Crippling ice accumulations are expected across portions of
North Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee near the
Tennessee River, leading to weather-related power outages and
treacherous to impossible travel.
- Bitterly cold air will accompany wintry precipitation, lasting
into next week. Air temperatures and wind chills will drop into
the single digits to below zero at times.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Winter precipitation has kicked off in the Mississippi Delta,
where radar imagery depicts an area of light reflectivity. A few
snow reports have trickled in from Helena, Arkansas which marks
the official beginning of what will be a potentially historic
winter weather event in the Mid-South. Temperatures across the
region continue to drop rapidly with areas near Kentucky already
in the upper teens with dewpoints below zero. This frigid air
will continue to sink south overnight. Wintry precipitation will
become more widespread over the next several hours as southwest
flow aloft continues to bring elevated moisture into the Mid-
South. The results: a mixed bag of wintry precipitation that will
result in varying impacts depending on your location within the
forecast area.
Initial precipitation type for areas along and north of the TN/MS
border is favored to be snow due to the absence of a prominent
warm nose, leaving the entire air column below freezing. Further
south, freezing rain and sleet are anticipated. This forecast
becomes messy by sunrise Saturday as model guidance continues to
develop a stout warm nose spanning from 700 to 850 mb. A
changeover from snow to sleet is anticipated for areas along the
I-40 corridor, stretching into the northernmost areas of
Mississippi. These areas will mainly see sleet through the
remainder of the event, but brief periods of freezing rain cannot
be ruled out. Further north, snow will be the predominant
precipitation type. Snow totals will max out in northeast
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee.
Anywhere form 6-8 inches of snow may fall in this region through
Sunday afternoon. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for
areas along and north of the I-40 corridor through 6PM Sunday.
A more crippling forecast is taking shape for areas in northeast
Mississippi, where ice accumulations are forecast to approach
1 inch through Sunday. In this area, the aforementioned warm nose
will be much deeper: spanning from 700 mb to just above the
surface. This will result in a freezing rain regime that lasts
the majority of the event. One thing to note is that ice
accumulations will have a sharp drop off depending on where the
most favorable environment sets up. Areas in northwest
Mississippi may lie in the axis of sleet, resulting in lower ice
totals. This potential is reflected in the current forecast with
areas along the Mississippi River forecast to see less than
0.25 inches of ice. On the other end of the state, near the
Alabama border, temperatures hovering around freezing will
discourage the accumulation of ice. In particular, Monroe County
may only see a light glaze of ice. In between these two
locations, however, will be a different story. The highest ice
accumulations will exist in an area stretching from Tallahatchie
County, Mississippi northeast to Hardin County, Tennessee. Ice
totals in excess of 1 inch are possible in this area. Regardless
of precise accumulations, hazardous conditions will occur as
infrastructure struggles underneath the weight of ice. Weather-
related power outages are anticipated along with slow response
times to emergencies due to hazardous travel. We encourage
everyone to stay home until roadways become passable.
Snow, sleet, and ice accumulations will be here to stay for the
foreseeable future as temperatures remain below freezing well
into next week. Single digit and negative lows are forecast for
Monday and Tuesday mornings, further aggravating infrastructure
and potentially leading to pipe bursts multiple days after the
winter storm ceased. This prolonged cold will keep roadways
treacherous, so we advise everyone to remain home into the
beginning of next week. A Cold Weather Advisory and Extreme Cold
Watch are in effect for portions of the Mid-South due to these
frigid temperatures. Portions of the Extreme Cold Watch may be
upgraded to an Extreme Cold Warning as we get closer to Monday
and Tuesday. A brief "warm up" will occur on Wednesday with
temperatures approaching 32 degrees. Some guidance warms the Mid-
South above freezing. However, potential for this will be
unlikely as models are notorious for struggling to account for
snow pack and associated cooler temperatures. A reinforcing front
will arrive Wednesday afternoon, dropping lows into the single
digits once again by Friday morning. It remains too early to tell
the potential for a late week system, so for now remain focused
on our current conditions and remaining warm.
ANS
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
PL appears likely for MEM overnight, given upstream reports over
eastern AR. FZDZ should track mainly across north MS, overnight
interspersed with PL.
No major changes are planned for the 06Z TAFs. PL remains the
dominant precip type MEM for most of Saturday, per soundings from
multiple high res models. FZRA chances will edge up at MEM after
sunset, as a layer of warm air aloft is drawn north from the
Arklamiss.
PWB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Accumulating wintry precipitation will begin tonight that will
last through the majority of the weekend. Very cold air is
expected to accompany the wintry precipitation, but the cold air
will persist through the week. Fire weather concerns are minimal
through the period.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning
for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.
Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning
for MOZ113-115.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ001-007-010.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ001-007-010.
Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning
for MSZ001>017-020>024.
Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ002>006-008-009-
011>017-020>024.
TN...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>052-088-089.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>052-088-089.
Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning
for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ053>055-090>092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB
