Forecast Discussion
057 FXUS64 KMEG 081209 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 609 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1043 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 - Rain showers across northern Mississippi will end early Monday morning and usher in a dry pattern for this week. - Temperatures will turn cooler early in the work week. Highs will remain in the 40s Monday and moderate through Thursday. - An Arctic air mass will move into the Midsouth by next weekend. Lows on both Saturday and Sunday morning are expected to be in the teens with highs in the upper 20s to middle 30s. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1043 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Broad troughing continues across the eastern CONUS with the Mid- South currently in the right entrance region of the leading jet streak. Dynamic lifting will allow for scattered rain showers tonight, mainly across northern Mississippi, before exiting the region early Monday morning. Temperatures will cool slightly Monday and Tuesday with lows reaching into the low 30s and 20s Tuesday morning. The upper pattern will become more zonal through mid-week alongside milder temperatures Wednesday and Thursday and a dry forecast. Highs through this time frame will be in the 40s and 50s, potentially breaching 60 on Wednesday across northern Mississippi. Troughing will amplify across the eastern CONUS Friday with a cold front surging south into the region. Models are in good agreement that this air mass will be of polar origin, and will likely bring some of the coldest air of the season next weekend. Moisture ahead of the front is expected to be limited, keeping precipitation chances below a mentionable threshold (15%). Temperatures will then plummet Friday and Saturday. NBM probabilities for minimum temperatures below 20 F are already above 60% for the vast majority of the region both Saturday and Sunday mornings. LREF probabilities are shifted further north with only a 40% chance of lows beneath 20 F Saturday and Sunday, suggesting discrepancies in the forecast regarding how far south the arctic front will make it. If temperatures drop as much as the NBM is suggesting, enough wind would be available to bring wind chill values into the single digits and approach the need for cold weather products. Regardless, next weekend appears to harbor some of the coldest air we may see through this winter. So, pay attention to next weekend`s temperature forecast through the coming week as changes are expected. Ensembles try to eventually bring in an amplified ridge from the west beyond Sunday. However, model spread begins to rise dramatically by this point, decreasing confidence in the forecast. Therefore, a rise in temperatures after next Sunday is in the cards but the arrival and magnitude of any warmer weather is still yet to be determined. This also applies to our next precipitation chances, which for the most part are absent from the forecast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 608 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 An expansive IFR/MVFR cloud deck will hover over all terminals through midday. Thereafter, VFR conditions will persist with clear skies and light winds. There is a low chance (20%) that patchy fog affects any TAF site directly on Tuesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1043 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with MinRH values remaining above 40%. Showers will exit the region Monday morning with precipitation-free weather through the rest of the week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...AC3