Forecast Discussion
267
FXUS64 KMEG 271156
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
556 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 556 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
- Prolonged extreme cold will continue to create dangerous
conditions through this week, particularly for areas in North
Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee still impacted by
power outages.
- Travel conditions will remain hazardous for several days.
Subfreezing temperatures will continue for many locations
through next weekend, which will not help melt any
snow/sleet/ice on the roads.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1019 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026
A cold night with clear skies is underway across the Mid-South.
Temperatures are ranging from the upper single digits across
northwest Tennessee to around 20 degrees across north
Mississippi. Winds have generally slowed, but due to the already
cold temperatures, any slight bit of wind will have bitterly cold
wind chills. The feels like temperatures are in the 5 to 5 below
range across most of the area, with the exception of our southern
tier of counties across north Mississippi hovering around
10 degrees.
A strong area of high pressure has begun its southeast descent
causing our winds to shift from the northwest to the southwest.
The wind shift will keep temperatures from plunging much further
under clear skies. Temperatures early Tuesday morning will still
drop to the single digits, sub zero for some areas, with wind
chill values as low as -12F across northwest Tennessee. The
Extreme Cold Warning Covers this well and is likely to be allowed
to expire at its original time of 12 PM Tuesday. Skies will
remain clear and bring in an abundance of sunshine to aid in the
slow thaw. Sleet pack is more difficult to melt than snow pack
due to its opacity, so minimal melting is expected as sub-
freezing temperatures persist. There may be a glimmer of hope
across the region for a narrow window of greater than 32F
temperatures tomorrow afternoon from the southwest flow. From the
HREF, probabilities of temperatures greater than 32F are
generally between 20-60%. The corridor for the favored area is
from Jonesboro to Tupelo and westwards. Clarksdale and Amory have
much higher probabilities and are likely to rise above freezing.
While the southwest flow may benefit our temperatures, it will
bring enhanced moisture and threaten freezing fog Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. Probabilities of less than a half of mile
visibility are already hovering between 40-60% by 10 PM. Hi-res
guidance does generally confine this to the I-40 corridor, with a
little wiggle room slightly north and south of it. This is a
fairly strong signal early on, this is definitely something to
keep an eye on.
Wednesday will be gradually a repeat of Tuesday, but slightly
cooler with morning fog and cloud cover prohibiting warming. A
weak surface low will begin to develop over the ArkLaTex region
and WAA will bring the warmest day of the week on Thursday. The
surface low is favored to track along the Gulf Coast and stretch
another cold front across the region by Friday morning. A Cold
Weather Advisory may be warranted along the northern edge of the
Mid-South for apparent temperatures being less than 0F as
probabilities from the LREF are 40-60%. If Cold Weather Headlines
are not needed Friday, confidence increases for needing these
products over the weekend with probabilities greater than 70%
area wide for apparent temperatures less than 0F Saturday
morning. The cold weather does not look to budge as a synoptic
change is not anticipated through at least early next week.
DNM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
VFR expected at all four terminals to start the period with south-
southwest winds between 5 and 10 knots. A patch of IFR CIGs had
developed overnight across southeast Arkansas that could make it
to JBR and MEM within the next few hours. However, confidence is
not high enough to introduce any category changes as of 12z, but
satellite/METAR trends will be monitored throughout this morning.
By 16z, all sites are expected to be VFR with south-southwest
winds remaining, gusting between 15 and 20 knots. This forecast
will hold until sunset and winds decrease in magnitude, becoming
variable to calm overnight. Recent trends in HREF and NBM hint at
fog and freezing fog potential tomorrow, especially at MEM and
MKL, but the likelihood of either terminal dropping below 1 SM is
only around 50%. Therefore, have not changed the MVFR visibility
reductions introduced in the 06z TAFs. JBR and TUP could also see
fog-related impacts, but confidence is too low to introduce any
category changes with this issuance.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1019 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026
Very cold air is expected to persist through the week, especially
Tuesday morning. There is a low to medium chance of freezing fog
Wednesday morning. Fire weather concerns are minimal through the
period.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST today for ARZ009-018-026>028-
035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST today for MOZ113-115.
MS...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST today for MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST today for TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...JAB
