Forecast Discussion
881 FXUS64 KMEG 161149 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 649 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 648 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Shower and thunderstorm chances will return into Thursday, with low confidence for a few strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. - Well above-normal high temperatures continue, with near record high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees on Friday. - A cold front will pass through the Mid-South on Saturday, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, cool, and less humid conditions will prevail for Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Another warm and quiet evening across the Mid-South, which remains on the western periphery of high pressure centered off the Atlantic Coast. Meanwhile, a cold front extends from Lower Michigan to the Central and Southern Plains, and a dryline located from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to West Texas. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show two different areas of showers and thunderstorms, the first area is located along the I-44 corridor in Missouri and the second area is now entering western Arkansas. This convective activity is in association with a shortwave trough moving through the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley. Temperatures as of 10 PM CDT are in the 70s nearly areawide. Short-term model trends suggest these upstream showers and thunderstorms will begin to weaken overnight as it approaches the Mid-South late tonight towards sunrise Thursday and encounters a more stable airmass across the area. Rainfall amounts will average up to a quarter inch at best. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is expected to traverse the periphery of the upper-level ridge axis over portions of the Middle and lower Mississippi Valleys by Thursday afternoon. There is a low (20- 40%) chance for re-development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon if the atmosphere recovers adequately from morning convection and subsequent cloud cover. Moderate to strong instability, moderately steep to steep mid-level lapse rates, and 30-35 kts of shear may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across the Mid-South during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Confidence in occurrence and coverage remains low at the moment but damaging winds and large hail remain the primary threats. The upper-level ridge will build back in behind the shortwave later Thursday evening, resulting in a very warm and dry summer- like day for Friday. Latest guidance continues to suggest near record highs are expected as temperatures rise into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees by Friday afternoon. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be on Saturday as a cold front moves across the Lower Mississippi Valley, bringing a slightly better chance for beneficial rain but not nearly enough to alleviate the moderate to extreme drought conditions. Cooler near- normal temperatures will follow this weekend into early next week behind the front. Long term model trends continue to diverge with the timing of a return of showers and thunderstorms by mid to late next week leading towards lower confidence rain chances next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 648 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Medium to high confidence (50-80%) for VFR conditions through the period. A few SHRAs will linger this morning, otherwise an upper- level disturbance will move across the region this afternoon and evening. Expect isolated to scattered TSRAs to develop and push across northern parts of the Mid-South, including JBR, MKL, and MEM. Low confidence (~30%) that TSRAs will be reported on station, so kept PROB30s for this TAF cycle. SSW winds at 10- 14 kts will occasionally gust to 20 kts, especially at JBR. Winds will be lighter toward TUP. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Moisture will rise above 40% through the end of the week, with rain chances both Thursday and Saturday. Total rainfall amounts through both events will likely be up to one inch at best. By Sunday, fire danger concerns will return as minRH values are expected to fall below 30%, with many locations falling below 25% through the first half of next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...SJM