Forecast Discussion
112 FXUS64 KMEG 111741 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1141 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1141 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026 - Mild weather will persist through the end of the week with highs in the 50s and 60s. - A low pressure system will bring another round of rainfall beginning Saturday that will last through Sunday. A few thunderstorms are expected amidst widespread rain showers. - Weekend rain totals will be in the 1.5 to 2.5 inch range. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Tuesday) Issued at 1141 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026 Surface analysis currently shows a cold front draped across central Mississippi with an area of high pressure building across the Midwest. Aloft, a ridge currently resides over the eastern Rocky Mountains with an upper low off the coast of California and another upper low over the northeast. Weak CAA behind the cold front will allow the majority of the Mid-South to climb above 50 degrees daily through the remainder of the week. Throughout this time, the ridge over the Rocky Mountains will also propagate eastward, reducing the potential for rain as well, keeping a mild, dry pattern. The western upper trough, currently off the Californian coastline, will follow the ridge and eventually reach the region Saturday. Moisture advection ahead of the system is forecast to increase PWATs above the 90th percentile through Sunday with rain showers forecast beginning Saturday morning along a warm front across Western Tennessee, eastern Arkansas, and the Missouri Bootheel. A surface low will also develop beneath the upper system and will bring additional rain to the entire area along a cold front. There is some instability with recent GFS runs producing upwards of 500 J/kg - 750 J/kg of MUCAPE Sunday afternoon. However, the LREF ensemble mean struggles to bring more than 100 J/kg into north Mississippi, suggesting that there is still some uncertainty amongst the ensemble suite regarding the level of destabilization. Regardless, occasional thunder is expected within stronger, more convective showers, especially along the surface cold front as it passes Sunday. Severe chances are low, mainly due to the uncertainty in destabilization, but even if there is sufficient instability in place, effective shear values will only be in the 20 knots - 25 knots. Rainfall accumulations are generally around 1.5" - 2.5", a trend away from the 2" - 3" from a couple days ago. Locally higher amounts are still possible in any areas that experience convection. The low pressure system and cold front will exit the region to the east overnight Sunday and into Monday morning. Similar to this week, CAA behind this weekend`s system will be rather weak. So, temperatures will remain mild with highs in the 60s Monday and Tuesday with dry weather. Southerly WAA will kick off Tuesday ahead of another upper low, lasting into Wednesday with highs increasing a tad further into the low to mid 70s. Ensemble spread increases into Thursday, especially with regards to the evolution of the surface pattern, typical of a system this far into the forecast. Therefore, a low (< 30%) chance of rain showers currently exists for Thursday, which is expected to change in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026 A dry post-frontal airmass will bring VFR at Midsouth TAF sites through the next 30 hours. The surface high pressure ridge center will settle into the lower Ohio River Valley this evening, resulting in light northeast winds through Thursday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1141 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026 Wetting rains from Tuesday will keep minimum relative humidity values at or above 40% Wednesday, decreasing to between 30% and 40% Thursday. 20 ft winds will decrease from 7 knots today to below 5 knots through the end of the period early tonight. Therefore, fire concerns remain low through the remainder of the week. More wetting rains are expected this upcoming weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...PWB