Forecast Discussion
263 FXUS64 KMEG 301132 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 632 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026 - A significant warming trend will bring temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal beginning today, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s through at least Wednesday. - Breezy conditions are expected through Tuesday with south wind gusts near 30 MPH. - Showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast by Wednesday, with a 50% to 80% chance of rainfall through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026 The next few days will feature quite warm conditions for early spring with the effects of strong southerly flow encouraging WAA. The juxtaposition of a strong Bermuda High and an approaching cold front will make for a tightened pressure gradient across the Mid-South Monday and Tuesday, leading to elevated southerly surface winds. We will need to keep an eye on the normal problem area of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel for meeting Wind Advisory criteria. Latest HREF guidance depicts a pretty low chance of meeting criteria (25 MPH sustained, 40 MPH gusts) on Monday but would not be surprised if those probs jump up on Tuesday with the tighter pressure gradient. This gradient and its resultant WAA is also one of the main sources of our anomalous warmth for late March. Temperatures will hover 10-15 degrees above normal Monday, but especially Tuesday. MEM airport`s forecast of 86 degrees would break their 85 degree record for Tuesday. Moving into midweek, the upper level pattern starts to adopt more of a southwesterly flow regime aloft. This will allow for large scale lift at the surface coinciding with a series of cold fronts becoming stationary. This marks a significant pattern shift through the end of the forecast period. The next cold front is slated to move through on Wednesday morning, bringing PoPs back up to the 70-80% range. This same front will most likely stall out on Thursday, keeping us in a wet pattern through the following weekend. Early ensemble profiles indicate a messy convective regime Wednesday through Sunday along this complex forecast of stalled fronts and subtle shortwaves. No one particular day is jumping out for a synoptic severe weather setup; the joint probabilities of CAPE > 500 J/kg and bulk shear > 30 kts (a good "first guess" at severe weather ingredients) are less than 10% each day next week per the LREF. It will most likely be several days of widespread showers and thunderstorms until the front is able to clear the area. From a heavy rainfall standpoint, there are very low probabilities of storm total rainfall > 3" through Sunday. Ensemble totals are more in the 2.5" realm over the course of 5 days. This should help alleviate our drought without posing much of a flash flooding threat. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026 Low stratus will affect TAF sites this morning with the stratus most persistent at MEM, MKL, and JBR. A TEMPO is included for TUP to account for breaks in the stratus, with all sites anticipated to improve to VFR conditions around 18Z. Latest HREF guidance indicates a medium to high chance (>60%) of low stratus redeveloping at sites after 10Z Tuesday. Gusty south winds will strengthen today to 14-20 kts with gusts of 22-29 kts. Winds will remain elevated tonight, except for TUP where winds may become light. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026 Southerly moisture transport is expected to return to the region beginning today and persisting through the rest of the week. MinRH values will likely remain at or above 35%, with some gusty afternoon winds. Precipitation chances will increase by Wednesday afternoon. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...CJC