Forecast Discussion
357 FXUS64 KMEG 160539 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1139 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1138 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 - There is a 15 to 30 percent chance of rain Friday afternoon into Friday evening ahead of another cold front. - Mostly below normal temperatures are expected to continue into the weekend and early next week. - The next chance of rain will arrive during the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1138 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 An area of surface high pressure encompasses the Mid-South as of 11 PM. This surface high will slowly be pushed east into Friday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Cirrus clouds associated with the parent upper level low continue to slowly filter into the region as southerly flow begins to pick up. The increasing cloud coverage and WAA should keep temperatures from plummeting any further tonight, with the temperatures around sunrise hovering right around the freezing mark. The parent low will quickly bring a weak warm front just ahead of the cold front tomorrow afternoon. The warm front will briefly strengthen enough to slightly increase moisture. The best moisture will likely be in the upper levels, due to the strength and longevity of high pressure that barely gets moved out just hours prior. Guidance shows rather large dewpoint depressions (15- 20 degree difference) at the projected precipitation onset. Surface temperatures also appear to be too warm for any wet- bulbing snow concerns. Rainfall accumulation amounts are also being squashed due to the dry air mass, with the entire Mid-South at a 25% chance or less of receiving a tenth of an inch. If any precipitation squeezes through, confidence is medium to high that it will be in liquid form. Saturday will be cooler than Friday due to northwest flow ushering in a mostly dry, reinforcing front for Sunday. The airmass behind the secondary front will be unusually cold due to its arctic origin; the 500mb heights are around the 5th percentile according to climatology. This is the same front that will threaten wintry conditions across the deep south, where better moisture resides. Some moisture may creep into our southern tier of Mississippi counties with a 10% or less chance of a dusting in Monroe County, MS. As typical with cold fronts, the pressure gradient will be tight bringing blustery conditions by Sunday morning with the feels like temperatures in the low teens, and some areas along the north may fall into the single digits. This airmass will dominate the forecast into early next week as high temperatures will be in the 30s and low 40s (across north Mississippi) through Tuesday. By Wednesday, the upper level pattern becomes more zonal as ridging becomes prominent out west. The strong ridging will result in favorable chances for several disturbances to move across the Mid-South and bring the risk of heavy precipitation late next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. South/southwest winds will be gusty, up to 20 kts, through the afternoon hours along a tightened pressure gradient and aided by a cold front. This aforementioned front will bring the chance (20- 30%) for light showers and mist in the afternoon hours. Confidence was only high enough in coverage for PROB30s across all terminals. Behind this front, wind will shift more west/southwest as gusts drop out by 00Z. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1138 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 A cold front will move through late Friday with a very low chance of wetting rains and higher minimum relative humidities (around 50%). 20-foot winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph across northern sections of the Mid-South on Saturday, with minimum afternoon relative humidities hovering around 25 to 35%. Areas along and west of the Mississippi River have a medium to high chance of RH values less than 30%. This will be close to warranting a fire danger statement if conditions pan out. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...AEH