Forecast Discussion
270 FXUS64 KMEG 280539 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1239 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 - Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected overnight into early Tuesday morning with the threat for damaging winds, large hail, and strong tornadoes. - Another round of severe weather is expected Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning. Primary threats will be damaging and large hail with a secondary threat for a few tornadoes. - Another chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives on Friday. Otherwise, generally dry weather is expected on Thursday and over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1120 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 A busy overnight hour is progressing with a line of severe thunderstorms moving into the far northwestern portions of the Mid-South and some isolated storms developing across West TN. Through the remainder of the overnight and early morning hours, this line will continue to move through a favorable, fairly uncapped environment. Latest mesoanalysis data from the region continues to highlight MLCAPE values in the 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg range with 0-3km SRH values over 400 m2/s2. While storms ahead of the main line have remained tame over the past 30 minutes, this will likely change as the forcing continues to progress eastward. All storm modes will remain on the table into the overnight hours, with a Tornado Watch in effect until 5 AM for the entire area. The area of greatest concern does appear to be across eastern AR and north of the TN/MS stateline, but storms will have the potential to go severe south of the TN/MS line later in the overnight hours. Through the rest of Tuesday, a secondary shortwave will move off of the Rockies through the daytime, bringing another round of severe weather to the Mid-South. Any lingering convection from the ongoing overnight round will move out of the area by mid- morning, allowing for plenty of time for the atmosphere to destabilize once again heading into the afternoon and evening. The entire Mid-South is in either an Enhanced Risk (3/5) or Slight Risk (2/5) once again for Tuesday. Guidance continues to suggest yet another robust environment across the Mid-South, with MLCAPE values >2,500 J/kg, ample deep layer shear, and lapse rates between 7 to 8. Timing with this would be generally after 2 PM. All storm modes are on the table once again, but there is more confidence for a damaging wind and large hail threat. In addition to the severe weather threat, there is an increasing concern for a flooding threat by the evening hours. PWAT values will be over the 90th percentile for the time of year, with some CAMs showing storms lingering along the I-40 corridor. If any of these convective storms begin to train over an area, this would significantly increase the flooding concern pretty rapidly. While we have been in a drought, given the overnight rainfall expected, any additional rainfall that lingers could quickly become an issue especially in metropolitan areas. Instability will begin to diminish as we approach midnight, with the main severe weather threat likely ending by midnight. Some lingering showers could linger into early Wednesday morning. Primarily zonal to weak northwesterly flow in the upper-levels will arrive by Wednesday, with a cooler and increasingly dry forecast by the middle to end of the work week. While some lingering moisture could bring showers (~20% chance) to our southern tier of counties, confidence overall is low and most of the area will likely remain dry. By the end of the week, an upper- level low will move out of the four corners, bringing our next potential rain maker to the Mid-South Friday into Saturday. Severe weather does not appear to be a concern with this system, with little to no instability expected. As far as high temperatures go, temperatures will continue to fall by Wednesday with temperatures spanning the 70s before dipping into the 60s Thursday through at least the first half of the weekend. 6 to 10 day CPC guidance does keep the Mid-South in a below normal temperature outlook with near to below normal precipitation, so overall the cooler pattern will likely continue into next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Complex TAF period over the next 24 to 30 hours with ongoing convection and a second round of convection expected by the afternoon to evening. Category drops will be likely for JBR, MKL, MEM over the next few hours as TSRA moves through the area. TUP may see some low clouds after 10Z. There should be a window generally in the mid-morning to early afternoon hours where clouds could sct out in some locations with temporary improvements to VFR. The biggest question will be into the afternoon and evening with a secondary wave of TSRA. Given overall low confidence with timing, mainly accounted for this with PROB30 groupings. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1120 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 Minimal fire danger concerns with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected through Tuesday. Dry conditions with minRH values below 40% will return on Thursday, before additional moisture returns to end the week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...CMA