Forecast Discussion
850
FXUS64 KMEG 180524
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1124 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1118 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
- Near record warm temperatures are expected through Thursday,
with temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above normal both day and
night.
- An unsettled weather pattern will begin Thursday, bringing
widespread showers and thunderstorms back to the forecast
through Saturday.
- Much colder air is anticipated Sunday, with temperatures
dropping back toward or slightly below normal into early next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1118 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
The latest surface analysis depicts a large 1025mb high just off
the east coast of the CONUS. To the west, duplicate 985mb lows
are pushing east off the Rockies into the Northern Plains. These
strong low pressure systems are pushing cold fronts across the
central US and tightening the gradient in its wake. This results
in windy conditions across the region. Winds will continue to be
elevated overnight as the aforementioned frontal boundary and
parent lows inch closer to the region. There is a low (10-30%)
chance of sustained winds greater than 25 mph in northeast
Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. For the same area and into
West Tennessee, there are high probabilities (>70%) of greater
than 40 mph gusts overnight into Wednesday morning. Due to these
probabilities, a Wind Advisory will go into effect from 10 PM
Tuesday until 6 AM Wednesday.
The pressure gradient will remain tight until the frontal
boundary actually crosses the region, which does not appear to be
until Thursday. The Wind Advisory may need to be extended and/or
expanded in subsequent forecasts but will be evaluated on a day
to day basis. Generally, dry and windy conditions will prevail
prior to the frontal passage. Temperatures will run 15 to
25 degrees above normal each day and night with highs in the 70s
and lows in the upper 50s. Several temperature records could be
tied or broken through Thursday. A few WAA showers may squeeze
out within the southerly flow regime, but pinpointing of location
and amounts is not concrete.
The southerly flow ahead of the frontal boundary does increase
temperatures and surface moisture profiles. There is a marginal
risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms for Thursday
afternoon/evening along the KY/TN/MO borders. As we feel the
windy conditions ahead of this front, the shear associated with
this system is the driving force of this risk. This would be a
rather low-topped event as the moisture will struggle to fully
saturate the upper levels which could squash rain chances all
together.
Despite the limiting factor of moisture, 40 kts or more of
effective shear roughly perpendicular to the boundary will favor
discrete storms development. With early analysis, the LREF
probabilities of severe weather ingredients are pinging the
medium range of 30-45% of MUCAPE >500 J/kg, MUCIN >-25 J/kg, and
bulk shear greater than 30 kts. Given the favored timing of the
frontal boundary approach/passage, low level flow will be
increasing with diurnal trends. With discrete cells being the
favored mode, a low probability exists for damaging winds and a
tornado or two. If a cell becomes supercellular, large hail could
also be impactful, but it does not appear very moist or cool in
the upper levels. Precipitation associated with this activity for
Thursday into Friday is rather lackluster, with probabilities of
a quarter of an inch or more at 30% or less east of the
Mississippi River. This is something to keep an eye on as the
other necessary ingredients are there.
Temperatures will remain above normal Friday and Saturday and
rain chances will linger through Saturday. Higher precipitation
amounts are likely to fall in this timeframe, but still remain
less than an inch once the low pressure system departs. By
Sunday, a strong high pressure system over Canada will sink
southeasterly. Monday and Tuesday will be chilly and below normal
for the end of February, but temperatures will rebound by midweek
next week.
DNM
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
High confidence (>70%) exists in gusty south to southwest winds
continuing overnight through around midday tomorrow as a deep
surface low tracking across Minnesota maintains a tight pressure
gradient over the Midsouth. Sustained speeds 10-15kts with gusts
20-25kts are expected. Cigs will lower to MVFR tonight at all
sites and will remain MVFR through the middle to late afternoon
at JBR, MEM and MKL. MVFR conditions will linger through the end
of the TAF cycle at TUP. However, cigs will gradually lift
during the afternoon at all sites. Winds gradually diminish to
around 10 kts tomorrow evening. VFR conditions will return near
JBR around 20Z, at MEM/MKL around 23Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1118 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
There is high confidence that fire weather danger will remain low
through Thursday as minimum relative humidity values stay around
or above 50%. Transport winds will be strong the next couple of
days as the pressure gradient tightens in response to an
approaching low pressure system.
A warming trend will continue through Thursday as strong upper
level high pressure builds in. Our next shot at wetting rainfall
returns late Thursday and continues through the weekend. Colder
and drier conditions are anticipated early next week behind
another passing cold front.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for ARZ009-018-026>028-
035-036-048.
MO...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ113-115.
MS...None.
TN...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for TNZ001>004-019-020-
048>051-088-089.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...JDS
