Forecast Discussion
103 FXUS64 KMEG 192258 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 558 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 556 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 - High pressure will continue to build across the Mid-South into Monday. Temperatures will fall into the 40s areawide tonight. - Temperatures will remain cool this week with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Lows will generally be in the 40s to low 50s. - The next chance for appreciable rainfall will come late this week into next weekend as a trough of low pressure moves into the region. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Late morning surface analysis places a cold front from the Great Lakes region through Middle Tennessee and southwest along the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. GOES Satellite and regional METAR observations show much drier air filtering into the Mid-South. Temperatures as of 10 AM CDT are in the upper 50s to middle 60s across the area. Surface high pressure will continue to build across the Mid-South into Monday with much cooler and drier air filtering into the region. Short-term models indicate an upper-level low will move from British Columbia into the Great Lakes region early this week. An associated surface cold front will move through the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. This will bring a reinforcement of cooler and drier air into the region. Model soundings still remain relatively dry at most locations with rain chances remaining isolated at best over north Mississippi. Deterministic and ensemble long range models indicate a mid-level trough moving through the Central/Southern Plains and into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys. This late week system will bring the next appreciable chance of rain to the area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 556 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 VFR conditions throughout the TAF period. Current NW winds will become light overnight and settle back to S/SE by tomorrow morning. Wind speeds will begin to increase again around 16Z, with speeds between 10 to 15 kts and gusts upwards of 20 kts through the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A ridge of high pressure will bring cooler and much drier air into the area this week. Minimum relative humidity values will average around 30 percent into Thursday. The next chance for wetting rains will arrive on Friday as a trough of low pressure moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...CMA