Forecast Discussion
261 FXUS64 KMEG 100522 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1122 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1122 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 - Rain will continue overnight as a cold front passes. Severe weather chances are very low overnight. Dry conditions should return around noon Saturday. - Dry and seasonably cool conditions will return Sunday and persist into the middle of next week. - There is a medium chance (40 percent) of below normal temperatures next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 952 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 Convection has really struggled to develop over the past few hours. The cold front from early Friday morning moved through faster than previously forecast, which allowed plenty of relatively cool, dry post-frontal air to filter in throughout the day. Though there is a secondary surface low surging up from the Gulf Coast as of 10PM, the less favorable air mass in place has contributed to an overwhelming amount of CIN across the Mid- South, preventing any convection from becoming rooted in the boundary layer. At this point, only expect to see a rain shield with a few embedded thunderstorms through Saturday morning. The window for severe weather tonight has essentially passed and QPF totals diminished to 1-2", max. As the secondary surface low and associated front pull away on Saturday, rain should come to an end shortly after noon. With a CAA regime in place, each subsequent morning post-FROPA will be progressively colder through Monday. We`ll wake up to lows in the upper 20s on Monday morning under prime radiational cooling conditions. Dry and cool conditions are expected for much of the week, except for a brief blip on Wednesday. A mostly dry cold front will move through the area Wednesday afternoon, encouraging a short-lived 15% PoP during the frontal passage. There is little to no moisture to speak of ahead of the front, so these will just be very light rain showers. A secondary reinforcing front will follow closely behind it on Thursday, marking a transition to a cooler pattern. The air mass behind the secondary front late next week is not quite of Arctic origin, but it is much cooler and drier than we have seen so far in 2026. Again, two days of CAA and eventual direct influence of the surface high will send temperatures below normal by next weekend. One thing to note in the long term is the potential for a broad overrunning trough to bring another round of precip next Saturday and Sunday. Given that we`ll already have cold air in place long before the onset of precip, we may have a wintry mix and/or snow on our hands. Just something to monitor as long range ensembles come into view. CAD && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 VFR conditions currently, with the exception of TUP which is currently IFR, as light showers continue to move across the airspace. Guidance continues to struggle with cigs outside of NE MS, where cigs will likely remain IFR through at least the morning. Most of the guidance continues to bring in a MVFR deck to JBR, MEM, MKL by the morning behind a frontal boundary, with conditions gradually clearing into the late afternoon to early evening areawide as the boundary pushes eastward. Conditions should improve back to VFR areawide by the end of the current TAF period. Current light and variable winds will become NW by 15Z and increase in speed to around 10 kts with gusts upwards of 20 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 952 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 Confidence is high for no fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Rain will continue intermittently through early Saturday afternoon. Dry and seasonably cool conditions will persist Sunday through early next week as surface high pressure remains in place. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...CMA