Forecast Discussion

252
FXUS64 KMEG 010524
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1124 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

- A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect through noon Sunday as
  wind chills hover around 0 degrees.

- Temperatures will warm to near normal on Monday with rain
  chances returning Tuesday.

- The end of the week will be dry with temperatures slightly below
  normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

A 1040 mb high will center over the Mid-South by sunrise,
allowing morning lows to dip into the single digits and teens. A
Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect through noon as wind
chills hover around 0 degrees. Luckily, warmer conditions are on
the way as high pressure slides east today, allowing winds to
veer southwest. Afternoon highs will climb above freezing nearly
areawide, allowing residual snow and ice to begin melting once
again. Efficient melting will continue into Monday as sunshine
and temperatures in the 40s and 50s return.

A slight pattern change will emerge on Tuesday as a shortwave and
attendant cold front eject across the Plains. Ahead of this
system, precipitable water values will increase to around the
90th percentile. Light showers will begin impacting the Mid-South
in the morning hours, becoming more widespread through the
evening. Precipitation will linger into Wednesday before the
aforementioned front clears the area. Overall storm total
rainfall appears minimal with the latest LREF painting a 30%
chance of greater than 0.75 inches through midday Wednesday. This
will have a minimal impact on the ongoing D2 and D3 drought
conditions in the Mid-South.

The end of the week will feature dry conditions with temperatures
warming to slightly below normal. Friday will be the warmest with
highs in the mid to upper 50s. Long range guidance suggests
another frontal passage this upcoming weekend, along with
additional rain chances. However, run-to-run inconsistencies
continue to make precise timing and impacts too early to tell.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Strong surface high pressure over the region will result in VFR
conditions over the next 30 hours. There is high confidence that
winds will diminish to 5 knots or less through Sunday morning.
There is a low probability (20%) of MVFR CIGs and/or fog
affecting MEM and MKL near daybreak. Winds will shift to the
south tomorrow afternoon as surface high pressure slides east.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Light 20ft winds and MinRH values above 50 percent will keep fire
weather concerns to a minimum through the end of next week.
Wetting rain chances return Tuesday.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...AC3