Forecast Discussion

337
FXUS64 KMEG 211227
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
627 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 626 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

- A potentially historic winter storm will impact the Mid-South
  beginning Friday afternoon with heavy snow, sleet, and ice
  accumulations expected through Sunday afternoon.

- Bitterly cold air will accompany wintry precipitation, lasting
  into early next week. Wind chills will drop into the single
  digits to below zero at times.

- Light rain is expected across the region today with only a
  quarter to a half-inch of rain accumulation expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for 12PM Friday through 6PM
Sunday across the entire Mid-South. A potentially historic Winter
Storm will impact the Mid-South with snow, sleet, and ice.
Confidence has increased for heavy snow accumulations north of
the I-40 corridor and significant ice accumulations over parts of
north Mississippi.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

00Z Upper air analysis shows an upper-level trough encompassing
much of the continental United States. Meanwhile, late evening
surface analysis places a cold front in the Central Plains with
the Mid-South on the western periphery of the surface high.
Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies prevail late this evening
with temperatures in the 30s.

Downstream METAR observations show moisture beginning to increase
downstream of the Mid-South along and south of the I-20 corridor.
The air remains very dry over the forecast area this evening,
with RH values as low as 30 to 40 percent. Short-term model
trends and CAMs indicate it will take some time for the air to
saturate over the forecast area overnight into Wednesday morning.
Thus, confidence remains very low (028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday
     afternoon for MOZ113-115.

MS...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday
     afternoon for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday
     afternoon for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...SJM