Forecast Discussion


775
FXUS64 KMEG 161121
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
621 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.UPDATE...
See the 12z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Remnants of Barry will continue to bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms to the Mid-South through Wednesday.

Currently, an area of showers and thunderstorms has developed
across Southern Arkansas. These storms are quickly racing east and
will begin to impact Eastern Arkansas over the next couple of
hours. Very heavy rain is associated with these storms. The
convection will eventually spread into the Memphis Metro area
later this morning and will push eastward toward the Tennessee
River during the afternoon hours. Heavy rainfall will be a
continued threat with this convection thus flash flooding will be
possible. A Flash Flood Watch was due to end across four counties
in North Mississippi this morning, but with the expected movement
of the current convection will go ahead and keep Flash Flood
Watch going through this evening. In addition, embedded storms
within this line could become severe producing damaging winds as
the line interacts with daytime heating later today.

Another round of heavy rain is expected to develop overnight
tonight across North Mississippi. May need to consider extending
the Flash Flood Watch even longer in time, but will let day shift
evaluate and make the call.

The heavy rain that develops tonight over North Mississippi will
linger into Wednesday across areas of West Tennessee near the
Tennessee River and Northeast Mississippi. The remnants of Barry
finally will lift northeastward into the Appalachians by
Wednesday evening which should end the chances for rain. However,
some models continue to show some rain lingering near the
Tennessee River into Wednesday Night thus have added 20 POPS for
now.

An upper ridge will build over the area in the wake of the
departure of Barry. With the wet ground, expect humidity levels to
be high. As temperatures begin to increase due to the ridge,
expect heat index values to rise to around 105 degrees Thursday
into the weekend. Heat Advisories may become necessary. Chances
for diurnal convection will begin by the weekend as the ridge
weakens and retrogrades to the west.

Models are showing a cold front moving into the area on Monday.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase as a result.
Expect a break from the heat and humidity behind the front.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
/12z TAFs/

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the Mid-South
today. Expect prevailing MVFR ceilings this morning, eventually
improving by this afternoon. Tempo IFR to low MVFR ceilings and
visibility are expected within thunderstorms. Convection is
expected to wane by 00z but redevelopment is possible overnight.
At this time, the greatest potential for overnight thunderstorms
will be across north MS. Gusty south winds will continue through
this afternoon.

MJ

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Benton MS-Calhoun-
     Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Lafayette-Marshall-Panola-Pontotoc-
     Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Crockett-Dyer-Fayette-
     Gibson-Hardeman-Haywood-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-Obion-
     Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

$$