Forecast Discussion
950 FXUS64 KMEG 152358 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 658 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 647 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 - Isolated afternoon showers and storms will continue into midweek. - Temperatures will return to the upper 80s and lower 90s by the end of the week. - Drought conditions are expected to persist or worsen due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and prolonged heat. This also raises wildland fire concerns through midweek. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 As of 11AM, showers and thunderstorms continue to impact portions of north Mississippi. This activity will propagate south over the next few hours before exiting the region. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is anticipated by late afternoon as an elevated moisture axis sets up across the Mid-South. The latest HREF paints a broader coverage area for this activity, so expanded elevated PoPs east of the MS River. Due to the spotty nature of this convection, rainfall totals will vary. Regardless, amounts will do little to combat our drought conditions. The synoptic pattern will consist of a squashed Omega Block on Tuesday as an upper level low over the Carolinas retrogrades into the Mid-South. This, combined with the impingement of a secondary low over the northern Plains, will result in the gradual breakdown of the aforementioned Omega Block. As this occurs, daily chances of rain cannot be ruled out. Greater precipitation chances exist on Tuesday with Wednesday and Thursday favoring a drier forecast. Daily highs will remain in the low to mid 90s. By Friday, a large upper level trough will swing across the Plains. This system will usher out any remaining ridging, leading to a return to near-normal temperatures. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 80s. In addition to slightly cooler temperatures, rain chances return Friday afternoon and last into the weekend. ANS && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 647 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 A messy convective scheme will be ongoing for the next 2-3 hours as several outflow boundaries interact with each other. Opted to handle this with a PROB30 for JBR and MEM since these are the only two sites likely to see any stray storms at all. Even then, PROB30 is better representative of the lower confidence, which is why no TEMPOs were introduced despite fairly scattered convection. Winds will be all over the place given the small scale boundary interactions and the surface high meandering about the eastern seaboard. Bona fide "light and variable" looks to be the case for the most part through tomorrow afternoon, though the extended MEM TAF does show a quick shift from west all the way around to northeast by tomorrow evening. CAD && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Elevated fire danger will continue into midweek. Dry fuels and MinRH around 30 percent will encourage wildland fire development. However, light 20ft winds will keep fire spread to a minimum. Spotty showers and thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon, but not everyone will see precipitation. Greater wetting rain chances return on Friday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...CAD