Forecast Discussion

079
FXUS64 KMEG 181718
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1118 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

- Winds will become gusty on Thursday, with wind gusts upwards of
  35 mph over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri bootheel.

- There is a very low chance for severe thunderstorms mainly
  across northeast Mississippi Thursday afternoon. The main
  concern with any severe thunderstorm would be damaging wind
  gusts, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- Much cooler air will return on Friday, with lows in the upper
  20s to lower 30s, and highs in the 40s. Mild temperatures will
  return Saturday and continue into next week, including Christmas
  Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

A line of showers is currently pushing into the Mid-South ahead
of a cold front that will pass through later this evening. Wind
speeds have begun to increase this morning, with many locations
already seeing gusts over 25 mph. Wind speeds and gusts will
continue to increase into the afternoon, with occasional gusts
approaching 40 mph. NBM probabilities do show a small window of
wind gusts exceeding 40 mph mainly over northeast AR and the
Missouri bootheel. However, any 40 mph gusts should be short-
lived, so have opted not to issue a Wind Advisory for these
locations.

Somewhat of a complex scenario ahead of the approaching frontal
boundary that bears mentioning for the forecast this afternoon.
The 12Z CAMs have come in rather bullish with the severe
potential this afternoon, which has led to SPC re-introducing a
Marginal Risk (1/5) area across the entire Mid-South. If this
threat were to materialize, the best "chance" would likely be
over northeast Mississippi where the latest CAM runs have brought
a narrow corridor of MUCAPE values over 500 J/kg. This could
support some isolated severe thunderstorms into the afternoon as
the frontal boundary approaches. The LLJ will begin to pick up
around this time, leading to a favorable shear profile for
damaging wind gusts. There is some question on the direction of
our low-level winds, which could make or break the potential for
a tornado or two. If the wind field remains unidirectional,
damaging winds would be favored, but if the low-level wind field
remains southerly or begins to become southeasterly, a spin-up
tornado cannot be necessarily ruled out. The big question mark
with this forecast will be if we are able to destabilize across
these locations. A low stratus deck continues to remain over the
entire area, with dew points generally in the mid to upper 50s.
Models do have the dew points continuing to rise into the low 60s
by the afternoon, but currently these values only exist across
the MS delta regions. In conclusion, is there a low end potential
for a severe weather threat to materialize this afternoon? Yes.
However, confidence is incredibly low given the lingering stratus
deck over northeast Mississippi and this will need to be
monitored through the remainder of the morning and into the
afternoon. With this in mind, regardless of the severe weather
threat some additional increased winds could mix down to the
surface and lead to some strong non-thunderstorm wind gusts. This
would be something else to watch, especially over portions of
northeast AR, the MO Bootheel, and West TN.

The aforementioned cold front will clear the Mid-South overnight,
with a rather chilly start to the day on Friday. Temperatures on
Friday morning will fall back into the upper 20s to low 30s, but
this will likely be our last morning freeze for the foreseeable
future. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side on Friday,
with high temperatures only rebounding into the 40s. By this
weekend into next week, a series of weak shortwaves will bring
sporadic rain chances (20 to 40%) to the area. QPF amounts will
likely remain less than a tenth of an inch, with some locations
likely remaining dry into next week. High temperatures will
remain above-normal for the foreseeable future, with some
fluctuations through the weekend before rising into the 60s to
even the low 70s by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

A line of showers is pushing through KJBR at 18z. This line will
continue to push E/SE and impact MEM and MKL. There is at least a
20% chance of a thunderstorm at TUP as the line progresses east.
IFR and MVFR ceilings are prevailing and will prevail at each
terminal until a cold front passes through. Ceilings may collapse
to LIFR upon precipitation arrival, but confidence is low in LIFR
conditions prevailing.

Winds will remain on the gustier side until the pressure gradient
eases which should be before sunrise. LLWS continues at the
northern terminals as the front advances, but conditions should
quickly rebound with all terminals returning to VFR by 03z.

DNM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

No major fire weather concerns over the foreseeable future.
Showers and thunderstorms will move across the Mid-South this
afternoon. MinRH values will fall below 40% on Friday, however,
20kft winds will remain light and recent rains should curb any
fire weather danger.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...DNM