Forecast Discussion
132 FXUS64 KMEG 301119 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 519 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1134 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 - Lows in the low 20s and upper teens are expected this morning with wind chills in the mid to low teens. - Temperatures will steadily climb through the end of the week with highs in the 50s by Wednesday, increasing into the 50s and 60s Thursday. - Shower chances increase Friday afternoon, with only a 15 to 30 percent chance of a thunderstorm. Dry conditions should prevail by Saturday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1134 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 An arctic air mass currently rests over the central and eastern CONUS behind a strong surface cyclone that has since traveled from the Midwest into Canada. High pressure remains centered to our northwest, allowing for somewhat elevated pressure gradient winds to remain across the region. Advection will then bring cooler air in as the high pressure moves closer to the region overnight with lows dropping into the lower 20s and upper teens Tuesday morning. Owing to gusty winds, wind chills are expected to drop into the lower teens across the entire area through mid- morning Tuesday before rising into the mid to upper 30s throughout the day. Above the surface low over eastern Canada, an amplified upper low will continue to deepen Tuesday. In response, northwesterly flow aloft will move into place over the eastern CONUS with an amplified ridge axis over the Rockies. Therefore, the dry, arctic air mass is poised to remain across the Mid-South through midweek. However, air will be dry enough to allow highs to climb through the week while surface winds begin to slowly advect warmer air in from the west. Highs on Wednesday are forecast to climb into the 50s, climbing into the 60s across northern Mississippi Thursday. Lows will also rise into the upper 20s and low 30s Wednesday morning and into the 30s and 40s Thursday. A similar upper pattern will remain through the end of the week with a ridge to the west and an upper low over eastern Canada. Lower in latitude, over the southern CONUS, winds from a decaying cutoff low currently in the eastern Pacific off the coast of California, will overspread the base of the western ridge axis. By early Friday, these winds will overspread the Mid-South with a developing surface low over the Red River Valley. Guidance continues to bring precipitation with this system Friday and Saturday, but there are still some inconsistencies regarding where and how much portions of the area will see. Deterministic guidance (GFS/ECWMF) have painted a swath of QPF over the northern half of the area associated with isentropically- generated precipitation, while also displaying a convective signal over northern Mississippi. However, precipitation totals remain lackluster thanks to issues regarding the depth of moisture and the duration of favorable moisture profiles. Furthermore, LREF profiles only show mean RH values above 80% up to 850 mb, decreasing with altitude. So, rain chances are increasing for Friday and Saturday, but QPF amounts are still expected to remain below .5" unless guidance trends towards greater depth of moisture. The surface low will pass through north Mississippi and into Alabama Saturday, drying the region out. High pressure to the north will fill in the space behind it, bringing lower temperatures to close out the weekend. Temperatures aren`t expected to drop too significantly as NBM lows only reach into the mid to low 30s Sunday morning. Dry and mild weather will close out the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 517 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 VFR conditions prevail in the wake of high pressure. Main trend will be northwest winds decreasing in speed and becoming more southwesterly throughout the day. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1134 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Minimum RH values will be between 30 percent and 40 percent through at least Tuesday afternoon. Strong 20 ft winds in excess of 15 knots tonight will slowly weaken to around 5 knots by Tuesday morning. Wetting rain conditions were brought to the area last night which should limit fire weather concerns until moisture is able to advect back into the region. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...CAD