Forecast Discussion

601
FXUS64 KMEG 181748
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1148 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1148 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

- Near record warm temperatures are expected through Thursday,
  with temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

- An unsettled weather pattern will begin Thursday, bringing
  showers and thunderstorms back to the forecast through Saturday.

- Much colder air is anticipated Sunday and Monday, with
  temperatures dropping back toward or slightly below normal into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

A 984 mb surface low, centered along the South Dakota and
Minnesota border, will continue east today. As a result, its
attendant cold front will move into the Upper Mississippi Valley
before losing steam and washing out just to our northwest. The
remnants of this front will be picked up by a shortwave moving
out of the Rockies tonight. A tightening pressure gradient will
develop Thursday morning, producing wind gusts near 40 mph in
portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. As a
result, a Wind Advisory will go into effect at 9AM. In addition
to gusty winds, isolated showers will impact the Mid-South
through Thursday evening. There is potential for a few
thunderstorms tomorrow just before sunset, mainly in northeast
Mississippi. However, upscale growth of this activity will be
limited with rainfall totals maxing out at a quarter of an inch.
Rain chances will wane Friday morning as the aforementioned front
pushes through the remainder of the Mid-South.

An unsettled synoptic pattern will emerge on Saturday as multiple
shortwaves impact central CONUS. This regime will increase rain
chances in the Mid-South by sunrise Saturday. Coverage of showers
will be isolated in nature with rain totals remaining less than
half an inch. By Sunday, much cooler air will be in place with
highs in the 40s and 50s. The coolest day will be Monday as highs
remain in the low to mid 40s. Seasonable temperatures will not
last long as upper level ridging builds into the Mid-South on
Tuesday. A warming trend will kick off at this time with highs
reaching the 60s by midweek.

Long-term guidance suggests additional rain chances materializing
by the end of next week, though large model spread and run-to-run
inconsistencies keep confidence in timing and impacts low.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

The biggest impact this period will be gusty south/southwesterly
winds and low ceilings. Gusts upwards of 20 kts will be
intermittent this afternoon and pick up again tomorrow morning
after decoupling briefly overnight. Confidence in showers this
afternoon is fairly low for MEM and MKL, but higher at TUP.
PROB30s still cover these showers well, though timing has shifted
a bit earlier from the previous TAF. Guidance is very keen on
ceilings dropping to IFR/MVFR thresholds just before sunrise.
Gradual improvements are expected throughout the morning tomorrow
but there will most likely be at least a BKN MVFR deck lingering
across the airspace through late afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1148 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Wetting rain chances return tonight and last through Saturday as
multiple disturbances approach the Mid-South. This will curb fire
weather concerns through the weekend.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for ARZ009-018-026-
     028.

MO...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CAD