Forecast Discussion

906
FXUS64 KMEG 211148
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
548 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 534 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 8 AM Friday.

- Wet and unsettled weather will continue through Friday night.

- The upcoming weekend will be mostly dry with highs in the 60s
  and 70s.

- Another unsettled pattern emerges Monday into Tuesday with
  showers likely along with some thunderstorms followed by cooler
  and drier weather by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 950 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

A weak boundary across the Mid-South combined with recent
rainfall, low dewpoint depressions, and light winds has set the
stage for another night of dense fog across the Mid-South. Many
locations are already below 3/4SM. The HRRR is fairly aggressive
for fog development over the northern 2/3rds of the Mid-South
overnight. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for most of the Mid-
South through 8 am Friday.

The upper trough exiting the Southwest will push into the
Southern Plains and Red River Valley overnight. Another round of
showers and embedded thunderstorms will push into the Mid-South
late tonight continuing until about noon Friday before exiting
into Middle Tennessee. This precipitation could break up the
dense fog a little earlier than the 8 am Advisory ending time.
Areas could see another one half inch or so from this round. It
looks like there will be a relative break during Friday afternoon
as temperatures push into the 70s ahead of a slow moving cold
front. A few storms are expected to develop Friday evening, ahead
of the approaching cold front. There are some marginal severe
weather ingredients in place with MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg
and sufficient 0-6 km shear values. Mid level lapse rates are
fairly poor though and severe weather chances are low though worth
watching from 8 pm Friday until about 1 am Saturday.

The weekend is looking better and better. Low clouds and possibly
some drizzle will start Saturday off but some sun should appear
by afternoon as surface high pressure builds in. Expect fog to
develop Saturday night followed by a nice day on Sunday with
plenty of sunshine and highs mostly in the 60s as upper ridging
prevails.

The next system will eject out of the SW US and northern Mexico
early next week with showers and thunderstorms pushing into the
area later Monday continuing into Tuesday. Severe weather chances
continues to look low as the upper support weakens and the better
instability remains to the south.

A cooler and drier pattern will develop by midweek and continue
through the end of next week into next weekend. Models have
trended significantly colder for Thanksgiving morning with
freezing temperatures looking more likely (40-60%). High temps
will only range from the upper 40s north to lower 50s south on
Thanksgiving Day, which is about 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Low stratus and reduced visibilities will continue this morning.
A gradual improvement towards MVFR conditions then perhaps VFR
conditions is expected this afternoon into early evening. A few
lingering rain showers will occur east of the Mississippi River
this morning with additional showers expected along a cold front
by this evening. Confidence in thunderstorms remains too low to
include in TAFs at this time. South winds will veer SSW today,
then NW behind the front tonight. HREF guidance indicates the
additional development of MVFR/IFR conditions late tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 950 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Wetting rain chances will persist through Friday night, limiting
the overall fire weather threat. Minimum relative humidity values
will remain above 50% through the remainder of the period with
additional rain chances returning early next week.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CJC