Forecast Discussion

387
FXUS64 KMEG 291901
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
101 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 100 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

- Driving conditions will remain hazardous into the weekend due to
  the re-freezing of melted wintry precipitation.

- An Arctic airmass will bring another prolonged period of
  sub-freezing temperatures to the Mid-South through the upcoming
  weekend. Dangerous wind chill values and cold temperatures are
  expected. Wind chill values Friday night into Saturday morning
  will be as low as the single digits below zero.

- Low confidence in a light snow shower or patchy freezing drizzle
  occurring mainly west of the Mississippi River tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 100 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

A broad upper-level trough over the eastern United States
continues to bring below normal temperatures to the Mid-South.
Mostly sunny skies are prevalent across the area this afternoon
with 12 PM temperatures in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Bitterly
cold temperatures and very low wind chill values are the primary
concern in this afternoon`s forecast issuance.

Temperatures have warmed above freezing areawide, allowing for
some additional melting of sleet and snow since yesterday.
However, this will be short-lived as a mid-level shortwave
rotates through the Middle and Lower Mississippi/Tennessee
Valleys tonight and another arctic cold front moves into the
region. Short-term model soundings indicate moisture will be very
limited as a mid-level shortwave trough rotates through the area.
If any precipitation occurs, it will be a light and short-lived
snow shower or light freezing drizzle. Our confidence in coverage
and occurrence remains too low to issue a Winter Weather Advisory
at this time but will continue to monitor short term trends.

A 1040 mb arctic surface high is expected to build into the
Mississippi Valley this weekend. The cold temperatures have
necessitated the upgrade of the Extreme Cold Watch to an Extreme
Cold Warning for the southern two tiers of counties in North
Mississippi Friday night into Saturday morning. This warning will
transition to a Cold Weather Advisory until 12 PM Sunday.  A Cold
Weather Advisory was also issued for the remainder of the Mid-
South Friday night until noon Sunday. Elevated winds along with
the cold temperatures will result in wind chill values in the
single digits above zero to the single digits below zero.
Thereafter, winds are expected to be lower but temperatures will
fall to the single digits above zero for Saturday night into
Sunday morning. This second round of cold arctic air will put a
pause on any additional melting of wintry precipitation until
temperatures warm above freezing by early next week.

Rain chances will return to the Mid-South towards the middle of
next week as another mid-level trough rotates through the
Mississippi Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

A stationary boundary is situated between MEM and JBR at the time
of the 18z issuance. This boundary is expected to continue its
southeasterly traverse through the period. This boundary is
relatively weak in nature, resulting in no LLWS concerns and
keeping conditions generally dry. There is a low, less than 20%
chance of snow flurries at JBR.

A more pronounced wave of precipitation wants to manifest on the
NAMNest and bring some snow flurries to MEM as well. Confidence
in this occurring or reaching the terminal is low, so the mention
was not included in the TAF. MVFR ceilings are expected to filter
in behind the boundary and linger for the rest of the period. IFR
ceilings are most likely at JBR with lower confidence at the
other terminals.

DNM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 100 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Moderate daytime humidity will prevail prior to the passage of a
strong Arctic cold front early Friday morning. Bitter cold
conditions will continue through the weekend.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Friday to noon CST Sunday for
     ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM Friday to 9 AM CST Saturday for
     ARZ058.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for
     ARZ058.

MO...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Friday to noon CST Sunday for
     MOZ113-115.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Friday to noon CST Sunday for
     MSZ001>009-014.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM Friday to 9 AM CST Saturday for
     MSZ010>013-015>017-020>024.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for
     MSZ010>013-015>017-020>024.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Friday to noon CST Sunday for
     TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...DNM