Forecast Discussion
679
FXUS64 KMEG 242207
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
407 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 406 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
- A significant winter storm will continue with heavy snow, sleet,
and ice accumulations expected through Sunday afternoon.
- Crippling ice accumulations are expected across portions of
North Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee near the
Tennessee River, leading to weather-related power outages and
treacherous to impossible travel.
- Bitterly cold air will persist into next week. Temperatures and
wind chills will drop into the single digits and below zero at
times. Temperatures will not rise above freezing for most of the
area for at least the next 7 days.
&&
.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR ONGOING WINTER STORM...
Issued at 406 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
The latest GOES East Water Vapor Imagery reveals a deep low over
the Baja Peninsula with a significant southwest fetch of moisture
overrunning the Arctic air mass over the Southern Plains and the
majority of the Mississippi Valley. A shortwave trough, embedded
in the broad southwest flow aloft, is traversing the ArkLaMiss,
resulting in shortwave ridging across much of the ArkLaTex
region. This has effectively shifted the axis of precipitation
along and south of the I-40 corridor. Additional shortwave
troughs will pivot through the Lower Mississippi Valley over the
next 24 hours, resulting in a significant winter storm with a
prolonged period of mixed wintry precipitation across the entire
Mid-South.
As previously mentioned, the latest radar trends show the axis of
precipitation shifting south to along and south of I-40. The
heaviest axis of precipitation is now generally over the ice
storm warning area, or along a SW to NE line from Charleston, MS
to Oxford, MS to Selmer, TN. The latest mPing reports indicate
that sleet has transitioned to nearly all freezing rain and the
ice storm is well on its way. Hi-res model soundings are doing a
great job of modeling this transition and continue to advertise
about another 24 hours of accumulating freezing rain.
Both HREF guidance and NBM 5.0 are consistent with a crippling
ice storm setting up across north Mississippi into portions of
west Tennessee near the Tennessee River. There is high confidence
that a devastating half inch of ice will fall in the ice storm
warning with a medium to high chance of up to 1 inch of crippling
ice by the event end Sunday afternoon. Specifically, the I-22
corridor between Holly Springs and Tupelo will be most affected.
Travel is strongly discouraged. Additionally, weather- related
power outages, road closures, and tree damage are imminent
especially across the ice storm warning area.
Outside of the ice storm warning area, additional sleet and snow
are expected through Sunday afternoon, which will further worsen
roadway conditions. An additional 2 to 4 inches of snow is
expected north of I-40, with another 1 to 2 inches of sleet and
minor ice accumulations along and just south of the I-40
corridor. Travel is strongly discouraged across the entire Mid-
South, as compacted snow, sleet, and ice on the roadways will
create slick and dangerous driving conditions. If you must travel,
please check local traffic conditions before venturing out.
AC3
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 1204 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
A significant winter storm is underway across the Mid-South. Snow
has mostly changed over to sleet along and south of the I-
40 corridor, but the profile remains favorable for predominantly
snow in our far northern zones. So far reports have ranged from
2 to 5 inches of snow/sleet as of 12PM, which will continue to
increase as the event progresses. Given the sheer size of the
system and its relatively slow eastward progress, expect precip
to continue essentially nonstop through Sunday evening. There may
be a brief lull late this evening after sunset as the actual
front catches up, but there will likely be some sort of light
snow or freezing drizzle at all times for the next 36 hours or
so.
Additional snow/ice accumulations have not changed with the
latest forecast. The heaviest snow band is still expected to fall
along the MO/KY state lines with around 8" of total snow.
Precipitation type and thus accumulations start to become a
little more messy farther south due to WAA in the midlevels
contributing to a slight warm nose from 700-850 mb. This warm
nose isn`t particularly strong, but it is deep enough to allow
the ice crystals to melt on the way down and re-freeze into ice
pellets (sleet) at the surface. The presence of this sleet
creates considerable uncertainty in the ice and snow totals even
during the event, especially since it is compacting on top of
light and fluffy snow.
A crippling ice storm is still on track for north Mississippi and
parts of West Tennessee through Sunday night. The impacts of 1"
of ice accretion cannot be understated; this is an absolutely
devastating forecast for infrastructure and travel. As of noon
Saturday, the freezing rain hasn`t really even started yet. It`s
been mostly light sleet/freezing drizzle for north MS so far but
the main p-type is expected to switch over to freezing rain this
afternoon and prevail through the end of the event. With a 36+
hour period of freezing rain and intermittent freezing drizzle, a
thick layer of ice will accumulate on trees, powerlines,
sidewalks, and roads. This added weight will take down numerous
powerlines and trees, leading to extended power outages in bitter
cold temperatures.
One of the biggest challenges in this forecast is the transition
zone between crippling ice and heavy snow. Forecast confidence is
very high in 0.5+ inches of ice in the Ice Storm Warning and very
high in heavy snow along the MO/KY state lines. In between that,
things get fuzzy due to the sleet. The most likely scenario for
this transition zone (including the Memphis metro) along the I-
40 corridor is a ~0.25" glaze of ice in addition to 2-3 inches of
sleet. Regardless, these snow, sleet, and ice conditions will
create compounding impacts that lead to impossible travel.
Impacts from this storm will last far beyond the precip cessation
tomorrow night. Though the winter precip will come to a close
after sunset on Sunday, temperatures behind the front will
absolutely tank overnight. Extremely efficient CAA and an Arctic
air mass will further send temperatures plummeting, warranting an
upgrade to an Extreme Cold Warning areawide for Monday and
Tuesday mornings. Wind chills will be in the negatives across the
forecast area, as low as -18 degrees in our northern zones. This
is dangerous, bitter, hypothermia-inducing cold. Make sure you`re
covering all exposed skin and limiting time spent outside. If you
lose power, close blinds/curtains to keep in heat, and stuff rags
or towels under exterior doors to keep the cold out.
Even the extended forecast offers no relief from the tundra.
Afternoon temperatures are not expected to rise above freezing
for any significant period of time for the next week, except for
our far southern counties. The vast majority of the area will
remain below freezing through at least next weekend, which will
do no favors for the road conditions. The sun may help out with
some partial melting of the snow/sleet/ice on the ground midweek,
but don`t bank on it. Prepare for roads to be slick and dangerous
for the rest of the weekend into the work week. On the bright
side, there is no precip (liquid or frozen) expected through at
least next Saturday. The 6-10 day outlook has a 90% chance of
below normal temperatures and a 60% chance of below normal
precipitation; in other words, cold and dry for the most part.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
PL and heavy PL at times for MEM today through early Sunday
morning. There is high confidence that variable CIGs in the
MVFR/IFR range will persist through the period at MEM, MKL, JBR,
and TUP. There is medium to high confidence that a warm layer
will move over MEM and MKL for a period this evening where PL
will changeover to -FZRAPL before changing back to PL and SN. JBR
will see predominantly SN with a low chance of PL. FZRA and FRDZ
should track mainly across north MS, overnight interspersed with
PL.
The majority of wintry precipitation will taper off near 25/18Z.
There is medium to high confidence that low CIGs will persist
into the next TAF period at all sites.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1204 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Accumulating wintry precipitation continues this afternoon and
will end late Sunday. Very cold air is expected to persist
through the week, especially Monday and Tuesday mornings. Fire
weather concerns are minimal through the period.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday for
ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.
Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday for
MOZ113-115.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ001-007-010.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ001-007-010.
Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday for
MSZ001>017-020>024.
Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ002>006-008-009-
011>017-020>024.
TN...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>052-088-089.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>052-088-089.
Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday for
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ053>055-090>092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...AC3
