Forecast Discussion

736
FXUS64 KMEG 202348
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
548 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 546 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

- Bouts of isolated showers will continue through early Saturday
  morning as a few weak disturbances move through the region.

- Below freezing temperatures will return Monday and Tuesday
  mornings, with a warmup starting midweek.

- Rain chances (30 percent or more) will return by Wednesday
  night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Thursday)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Much drier air has been infiltrating the Mid-South behind the
early morning cold frontal passage. Dewpoints have already
dropped to the 20s and 30s, leading to mostly clear skies this
afternoon. Despite the cold front drying things out, forecast
surface analyses depict a warm front lifting north from the Gulf
Coast late tonight. This will bring a second round of showers
after 3PM. There is good agreement amongst the 12Z CAMs that
spatial coverage should be mainly limited to north Mississippi.
Given the dry air and very meager CAPE on the order of 100 J/kg
tonight, any thunderstorms will most likely be confined to the
southernmost zones. Elsewhere, expect just a light swath of
showers to lift north through the area until about midnight. With
how dry most of the vertical profile is, any convection will be
shallow and single-celled, leading to very limited QPF of less
than half an inch.

Saturday starts off a bit unsettled as some light showers linger
in the soupy airmass left by the warm front. By mid morning, a
secondary cold front will finish the job and sweep out the rest
of the precip. This begins our brief cold snap for a few days.
With strong CAA and eventual radiational cooling, Monday and
Tuesday will be our coldest mornings of the period. Temperatures
will drop to the 20s with wind chills in the teens under clear
skies and light winds on Monday and Tuesday mornings. While this
is not at all uncommon for February, it`s been a few weeks since
we saw this kind of cold weather and may come as an unpleasant
reminder for some that it is still winter.

LREF guidance suggests an upper level ridge building in over the
central CONUS starting Tuesday afternoon, which translates to
warmer temperatures for the Mid-South due to anomalously warm air
being advected via northwesterly flow aloft. This pattern shift
will result in temperatures in the mid 60s (10+ degrees above
normal) starting Wednesday through the rest of the week.
Northwesterly flow aloft is frequently a double-edged sword for
us; we get to enjoy the more mild temperatures but have to watch
out for active systems ejecting from the northern Plains. The
energy and residual precip associated with these systems
generally follows a trajectory directly toward the Mid-South
under this type of upper level pattern. This looks to be the case
next week as we are carrying at least a 30% PoP from Wednesday
onward just due to weak disturbances being advected into the
region. The next large-scale cold front looks to swing through on
Thursday, though temperatures aren`t expected to take much of a
plunge behind it due to its Pacific origin. The extended outlook
still depicts at least a 60% chance of above normal temperatures
for the next 6-10 days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Showers will continue to lift north through north Mississippi
into parts of West Tennessee overnight. There is high confidence
(80%) that showers will occur at TUP, with lower chances (around
30%) at MEM and MKL. Ceilings will gradually lower across the
area, though they are expected to remain VFR overnight. Ceilings
are likely (60%) to lower to MVFR at MEM and TUP by mid-day. VFR
conds are expected to return Saturday evening. Light N/NE winds
will increase to 10-12 kts Saturday afternoon as a reinforcing
cold front moves through the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

A couple of disturbances will move through the region through
Saturday morning. However, there is high confidence that wetting
rain chances will remain confined to north Mississippi. Dry and
cold air will filter into the region Sunday and Monday with
minimum humidity levels returning to the 30 percent range each
day. Humidity and temperatures increase in tandem midweek.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...SJM