Forecast Discussion

320
FXUS64 KMEG 151109
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
509 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 507 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for portions of
  northern Mississippi Monday morning for dangerously cold wind
  chills due to Arctic air.

- Temperatures will warm quickly to near-normal by Tuesday.
  Rain chances increase by the middle of next week as the pattern
  continues to warm.

- Above normal temperatures persist well into late December.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

The Arctic airmass is in full swing over the Mid-South this
evening. Latest wind chill obs are in the single digits
essentially areawide, warranting another Cold Weather Advisory
overnight for portions of north Mississippi meeting the < 10F
criteria. Another brisk day is on tap for Monday, though slightly
warmer with highs in the upper 30s. After that, the pattern warms
very quickly as the Arctic high shifts east and gives way to
strong southerly return flow. Each subsequent day will get
progressively warmer through Thursday as this WAA regime remains
in place. PoPs remain low (< 20%) through midweek due to weak
ridging aloft and the residual effects of Arctic air drying out
the column.

The next active system comes in the form of a longwave trough
digging from the northern Plains on Thursday. The surface low`s
attendant warm front will lift north throughout the day, surging
temperatures 10+ degrees above normal and adding a Gulf moisture
component. Forecast temperatures in the mid 60s with dewpoints
also around 60 degrees will make Thursday feel more like early
Fall than mid December. The cold front is still on track to swing
through on Thursday afternoon and evening, increasing PoPs to 80-
90%. There has been a trend of increasing instability along with
the pre-frontal moisture axis, mostly for the Mississippi Delta
region. LREF ensemble mean surface CAPE is now on the order of
100 J/kg during FROPA on Thursday afternoon, which is plenty to
get a few rumbles of thunder in a well sheared environment such
as this one. Still nothing to raise the severe weather alarm
bells at, but confidence in thunderstorms is increasing on
Thursday.

After the front passes on Thursday, the upper level pattern
flattens out almost completely next weekend. This will give way
to mild temperatures and benign weather at the surface. Looking
into the extended forecast, long range ensembles suggest some
weak ridging to persist over the central CONUS, increasing the
likelihood for a late December warmup. The 8-14 day temperature
outlook depicts a high chance (80-90%) of temperatures above
normal for the Mid-South persisting almost into the New Year.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Light and variable winds will become SSW this afternoon, as an
Arctic surface high pressure ridge moves east of the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1117 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Humidity continues to stay between 25-30% on Monday as the dry
airmass remains firmly in place. Temperatures and humidity will
be on the rise by midweek as another cold front brings an 80-90%
chance of wetting rains on Thursday.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ010>013-
     015>017-020>024.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...SJM