Forecast Discussion
783 FXUS64 KMEG 091121 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 521 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 521 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 - Dry and well above normal temperatures will be in place through Tuesday afternoon with rain chances returning Tuesday evening. - Temperatures will moderate closer to normal by midweek as rainfall chances increase. - Rain and potential thunderstorms return Friday and through the weekend, with high uncertainty in regards to rainfall totals. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1052 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026 The latest surface analysis sweep indicates Sunday`s warm front stalled out along the Tennessee and Kentucky border. A pretty significant temperature contrast, aided by this front, is on display across the Mid-South with current temperatures in the low 30s to low 50s. Surface winds are mostly calm with predominately clear skies as an alto-stratus deck filters southeast. Patchy fog to dense fog development overnight aided by the aforementioned front, calm winds, and crossover temperatures in the lower 40s. Dense fog potential (30-50%) will be greatest west of the Mississippi River. A Dense Fog Advisory may be warranted overnight. Fog should lift by 10 AM as winds begin to increase. Monday will be warm with Spring-like temperatures largely in the mid 60s to lower 70s as upper-level ridging broadens from the southern Rockies. Dry weather and well above (10+ degrees) normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday afternoon. Midday Tuesday, an embedded shortwave will eject from the southern Rockies into the Mid-South, increasing our moisture profile. By Tuesday evening, shower chances (50-70%) will begin to increase out ahead of an attendant cold front. Showers will continue through midday Wednesday. Forecast rainfall totals with this first system are very meager with total amounts up to 0.5", greatest amounts along and north of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line. This cold front will also help moderate temperatures closer to normal both beginning Wednesday with highs in the 50s to mid 60s. Thursday will be mostly dry as aloft, northwest flow builds over the region and drier air filters in behind the aforementioned cold front. As we move into Friday, the weather pattern becomes a bit unsettled as another, slightly more pronounced shortwave ejects into the Upper Mississippi Valley from the southern Midwest region. Shower and occasional thunderstorm chances (30-50%) begin to increase once again with lift from this shortwave. Severe weather is not expected as there isn`t very much synoptic support and joint probs have a 500 J/kg of SBCAPE and 30 kts of effective shear. Late Friday, ensembles indicate a surface low will push into the Lower Mississippi Valley from the ArkLaTex region and a few pronounced shortwaves will eject into the Middle Mississippi Valley from the west. Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms will continue all day Saturday. The biggest question remains rainfall amounts as deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to struggle on the exact evolution of this system. The GFS solution indicates a more southern track with greatest rainfall amounts up to 2 inches. However, the Euro solution has a more northern track with around 2-3 inches of rainfall across much of the Mid-South. Bottom line, there remains high uncertainty in exact rainfall amounts depending on the track of the surface low and attendant stationary front. One thing we know for sure, this weekend will be wet as showers and occasional thunderstorms continue into midday Sunday. AEH && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 A weak, stalled frontal boundary currently drapes across the airspace with light and variable winds at the surface. A bit of fog exists at JBR, on the cool side of the boundary. Once the boundary moves, southerly flow will prevail across all terminals with VFR conditions. Winds will begin to increase to greater than 7kts after 03z. This should help suppress fog development in addition to increasing cloud coverage ahead of a cold front. LLWS was not needed this cycle, but is likely to be added in subsequent cycles as the front descends. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1052 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026 Fire weather concerns will remain at a low as MinRH values will be around >=50% over the next several days. Our next shot at appreciable rainfall returns late Tuesday. Above normal temperatures will continue for the foreseeable future. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...DNM