Forecast Discussion
337 FXUS64 KMEG 121146 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 546 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 542 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 - Arctic air will bring the coldest temperatures of the season from Saturday night through Monday morning, with wind chills dropping into the teens and single digits Sunday and Monday mornings. - Temperatures will warm quickly to near-normal by Tuesday, increasing rain chances for the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1027 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Northwest flow aloft and return flow at the surface will result in a brisk and cool night ahead. Friday morning will start off in the upper 30s and lower 40s ahead of an approaching cold front. This frontal boundary will enhance return flow at the surface and allow temperatures to warm into the 50s and mid 60s. The LLJ associated with this upper level low and attendant cold front is moving rather quickly (nearing 50 kts) so this cold front will cross the area quickly and will clear the area by sunset. No impacts will be associated with this frontal passage other than some elevated southerly winds. An Arctic air mass resides behind a reinforcing front that will take aim on Saturday. While the front is a bit weaker, the temperatures residing behind will certainly pack a punch. The weaker front may be able to bring just enough moisture for a few showers to develop generally south of I-40. The NBM keeps attempting to bring in a small and narrow window of freezing rain across north Mississippi late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. This freezing rain outcome appears to be heavily weighted on the Canadian model, which is known for a wintry precipitation bias. Probabilities of even a glaze of ice (0.01") from the LREF are 10% or less. The ECMWF seems the least favorable of this scenario playing out as it has the front clear of the Mid-South by 09z, while the Canadian, and NAM models have precipitation still ongoing at the time as temperatures near and fall below freezing. Deterministic soundings from the LREF and the GFS have a very shallow warm nose, which would be more supportive of ice pellets/sleet. Wintry precipitation chances remain low, but if it were to occur the road temperatures will likely remain too warm to accumulate or cause impacts as daytime temperatures on Saturday are in the 40s in the north to the 60s in the south. Sunday morning will be the first cold day of our brief cold snap as morning lows will be in the teens and 20s. Unfortunately, brisk northerly winds will continue on Sunday as the pressure gradient around the air mass remains tight. The NBM has high (>70%) probabilities nearly area wide on Sunday for wind gusts 25 mph or higher. Being a north wind, it will filter in colder air and apparent temperatures will be in the single digits across the north and in the teens to the south. This may be our first chance at a Cold Weather Advisory. Monday morning will be another cold one under clear skies as the high pressure center inches closer to the region. Thankfully, winds will be much lighter, but temperatures will still be cold and the "feels like" temperature will coincide closely with the air temperature. The cold snap will be short lived, as we will be on the back side of the high pressure system by Tuesday and temperatures will return to near normal. Tuesday evening, a shortwave will dig across the southern plains. This would bring some moisture and increase precipitation chances for Wednesday, as well as above normal temperatures. The arctic air mass is extremely dry and it may take substantial moisture to saturate the column after its exit. We will keep an eye on precipitation chances for Wednesday, beyond then there is a lot of model spread. DNM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Confidence is high (90-100%) for VFR conditions and no precipitation through this evening as a cold front moves through the region. SSW winds will veer and become NW around 10 kts this afternoon before diminishing and becoming light NE this evening. The 00Z HREF ensemble guidance indicates a medium chance (40-60%) of post-frontal low clouds developing at MKL and MEM after 13/06z with lesser chances at JBR and TUP. A SCT015 group has been added with continued monitoring for further development. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1027 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 A slight increase in moisture due to southerly winds should keep minimum relative humidity values above 30% Friday. An arctic cold front will cross the area Saturday evening bringing very dry and cold air. Minimum RH values beginning Sunday will hover around 30%. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...SJM