Forecast Discussion

196
FXUS64 KMEG 091155 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
555 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 554 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

- A cold front will bring multiple rounds of strong to severe
  storms and heavy rainfall through early Saturday morning.
  Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are the primary threats, quick
  spin-up tornadoes are a secondary threat.

- Temperatures return to near or below freezing Sunday and Monday
  mornings behind the front.

- Dry conditions return for much of next week with seasonably cool
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1155 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

The active period we`ve been anticipating has finally arrived. A
cold front stretching from Lake Michigan to the ArkLaTex has
encouraged a line of showers and thunderstorms to develop across
the Mid-South. In addition, a tight pressure gradient (about 6 mb
from corner to corner of the CWA) has created 20-25 MPH sustained
southerly gradient winds with gusts up to 40 MPH. Given the
localized and short-lived nature of these gradient winds, opted
not to issue any headlines for this. Winds should be back well
below criteria by 1AM at the latest.

In the near-term, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to
congeal into a SW-NE line over the next few hours as the front
itself approaches. If persistence is any indication, shear is
almost too strong for any organized thunderstorms to prevail this
far south. Almost all of the instability is closer to the surface
low over central MO/IL in a more balanced regime. With such a
shear dominant environment, low-topped storms are pretty much
getting sheared off at the top before they have a chance to grow
into anything concerning. That being said, there are still
several CAMs that want to hold onto this ongoing convection well
into the early morning hours. This overnight frontal passage will
likely be a scenario where most everything on radar is benign,
but must be monitored closely for rogue overperforming storms.

The 00Z models came in with a significantly different solution
for Friday than any of the previous runs. Previous forecasts had
this front stalling out until mid Friday morning, then finally
getting a second wind and reigniting during peak heating in the
afternoon, which is what drove the Slight Risk. Now it`s looking
like the current FROPA will actually clear the area by Friday
morning, allowing cooler, drier air to filter in, effectively
cutting off the instability and moisture axis. Latest surface
analysis from WPC supports this forecast development, and depicts
a secondary surface low surging up from the ArkLaTex after 6PM
Friday. Given the trend of drier air being allowed to filter in
for most of the day Friday, the resurgence of the secondary
surface low will make or break our severe weather threat for
northeast Mississippi in the evening. If the low surges farther
north into West Tennessee, our southeastern zones will be in a
more favorable environment for severe weather. If it remains
pinched off to the south, we`ll be on the cool/dry side of the
system.

This model trend is also the reason for a lower storm total QPF
through Saturday; the axis of heavy rainfall has shifted into
northern AL in the more favorable warm sector. PWATs are still
above the 90th percentile for this time of year, so there`s still
plenty of fuel for storms to become efficient heavy rainfall
producers. Forecast rainfall totals through Saturday morning are
now looking more on the order of 1-2", with a low chance of 3+"
inches under training storms in northeast Mississippi. This could
still lead to localized flash flooding issues, especially if this
1-2" falls over the course of a couple hours.

Digging into the parameter space for Friday night, the 00Z
deterministic CAMs and 00Z HREF (ensemble mean) depict almost no
instability available past 3PM Friday. This is likely due to the
aforementioned faster FROPA pinching off the moisture axis ahead
of schedule. The axis of SRH and shear are plentiful way up north
of I-40 Friday night, but none of that matters without any
instability to tap into it. That being said, there`s still a low-
end severe weather potential for tomorrow night since the
secondary surface low will track through northeast Mississippi
and could encourage another round of strong to severe storms.
It`s also important to note that although the latest model
guidance has shifted toward a less severe scenario, it`s the
first suite of solutions to suggest this and should be taken with
a grain of salt. Still prepare for damaging winds, heavy
rainfall, and quick spin-up tornadoes.

The front will finally clear the area by midday on Saturday. Much
cooler air will send temperatures quickly back to near/below
freezing on Sunday and Monday mornings following the cold front.
Dry conditions and cooler temperatures return through at least
next Wednesday as the upper level pattern de-amplifies. Even
then, a weak cold front only brings 15% PoP on Wednesday with
negligible QPF. The long range outlook depicts seasonably cool
temperatures and near normal precipitation due to zonal flow
aloft.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

TSRA was ongoing at TUP at discussion time, part of a larger
convective line extending southward into central MS. This
activity was lifting east at 20KT or so.

VFR should prevail across the area this afternoon, with some
potential for brief MVFR CIGs behind a weak cold front / pressure
trough passage. By late afternoon, this front will stall over
central MS, with surface winds over the Midsouth veering to the
east by 00z. Scattered -SHRA will likely develop south of a MEM-
MKL line in association with a passing upper level wave. The
presence of the stalled front and the rain over the cool side of
the front will result in low MVFR to IFR CIGs in the late evening
and overnight.

A strong cold front will arrive around daybreak Saturday at MEM.
Cooler and much drier air will follow, with CIGs lifting to high
MVFR through the morning.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1155 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

No fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Wetting
rain and thunderstorm chances increase Friday with a cold front
that will bring 1 to 2 inches of rain. Dry and seasonably cool
conditions return Saturday afternoon behind the cold front.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...PWB