Forecast Discussion
863 FXUS64 KMEG 241102 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 602 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 602 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026 - Cooler temperatures will continue through Tuesday before a warming trend begins midweek. - Dry weather will prevail through at least Thursday. - A cold front late week will bring our next shot at rainfall on Friday and temperatures closer to normal for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1111 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 Cool northwest flow aloft will continue for another day as surface high pressure over the Great Lakes shifts toward the Atlantic seaboard. A few weak shortwaves moving through the region will produce some clouds and a low chance (less than 10%) of sprinkles. The profile remains quite dry, so even these are a long shot. Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. The cold front that has stalled to the south will lift back north through the Mid-South as a warm front on Wednesday as return flow develops on the backside of the surface high. Clouds are expected with this feature in the morning, with increasing sunshine and warmer temperatures by the afternoon. Highs will reach into the upper 70s and lower 80s Wednesday afternoon. Upper level ridging will nose in from the west on Thursday with gusty SW surface winds developing. High temperatures will reach into record territory with a 40-70% chance of temperatures greater than 85F. A cold front will move through on Friday. This front initially has some support and moisture while crossing the Ohio Valley. As it moves south into the Lower Mississippi Valley, the front loses its upper support, and it weakens rapidly. As a result, the best chances of rain will be north of I-40, and amounts will be light with only a 30-40% chance of one-tenth of an inch along the KY/MO borders. Temperatures will turn sharply cooler behind the front with a roughly 40-60% chance of low temperatures in the upper 30s across northern sections Saturday and Sunday mornings. After that, it is rinse and repeat, with a warming trend into early next week. Highs should climb back into the lower 80s Monday and Tuesday as southerly winds develop and upper-level heights rise. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 602 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Southerly winds around 6-8 kts are anticipated today, becoming light and variable overnight. ANS && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 Minimum relative humidity values will drop to 20 to 30 percent by Tuesday afternoon, but winds will be light, leading to less of a fire weather concern. By midweek, moisture will begin to increase as a warming trend begins, and minimum relative humidity values increase to around 35-45%. No appreciable rainfall is forecast over the fire weather forecast period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...ANS