Forecast Discussion
463 FXUS64 KMEG 141756 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1256 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Daytime high temperatures through Friday will be more typical of early June, as a strong upper level high pressure ridge continues to dominate the Midsouth`s weather. Friday will likely be the warmest day of the week, with highs near 90 along and south of Interstate 40. - Despite the presence of the upper ridge, a passing disturbance will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. - A cold front will pass through the Midsouth on Saturday, bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, cool and less humid conditions will prevail for Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The primary weather story through Friday remains the well-above normal temperatures. The near-record warmth is courtesy of an anonymously strong upper level ridge extending from the Gulf through the Southeast. Over the Midsouth, EPS shows forecast 500mb temperatures between the 95th and 99th percentile of model climatology, indicative of the upper ridge`s strength. Friday will likely bring the warmest surface temperatures, with highs around 90 along and south of I-40. This would be a normal high temperature for Memphis in early/mid June. The stagnant upper air pattern will finally break down late this week. A positively-tilted upper trough will lift from the 4- corners area this afternoon to the upper Midwest by Thursday afternoon. This feature will suppress midlevel heights over the Midsouth and provide up to 50kt of 0-6km bulk shear around sunrise. Deep layer shear will decrease to 30 to 40kt Thursday afternoon, in advance of a trailing southern branch shortwave. 00Z LREF joint probabilities of 1000+ J/kg CAPE and 30+ kt of deep layer sheer exceed 50 percent for most of the Midsouth Thursday afternoon. Model soundings depict relatively straight hodographs and steep (7-7.5C/km) midlevel lapse rates, suggestive of large hail potential. This would particularly be the case along and north of the I-40 corridor, where deep layer shear is strongest. Transitory shortwave ridging will build into the Midsouth Thursday night. The ridge axis will be east of the Midsouth by Friday afternoon, while low level warm advection strengthens under diffluent flow aloft. A high amplitude northern branch trough axis will pivot through the Central Plains early Saturday morning, driving heights down over the mid-Mississippi River Valley, and over the Midsouth later on Saturday morning. A relatively strong surface cold front will follow the midlevel height falls, with passage through the Midsouth expected from late morning through late afternoon/early evening. This front will provide a break from the early summer-like heat, with highs Sunday generally in the upper 60s. Dewpoints will cool to the lower 30s, driving minimum RH levels below 30 percent Sunday afternoon, increasing fire danger for areas that don`t receive wetting rainfall on Saturday. Temperatures will return to above normal early next week. Beyond then, substantial differences between the GEFS and EPS begin to emerge over the western CONUS, adding uncertainty beyond day 7 of the forecast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High confidence (>90% chance) for VFR conditions as upper-level ridging persists through the period. Elevated S/SW winds will continue to be gusty through sunset with gusts diminishing shortly thereafter. Another inversion looks to keep gusty winds from mixing down to the surface overnight, but gusts will resume shortly after 12z tomorrow. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Fire weather concerns will be minimal throughout the week as MinRH remains above 30 percent. Wetting rain chances exist on Thursday for areas along and north of I-40. A cold front will bring additional rainfall anticipated Saturday, across a broad portion of the Midsouth. Despite cool temperatures on Sunday, MinRH values Sunday afternoon are expected to drop below 30 percent over the majority of the Midsouth. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...DNM