Forecast Discussion

491
FXUS64 KMEG 030502
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1102 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1059 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Rain chances will slowly return on Thursday, with the highest
  chances across north Mississippi.

- There is a low chance, less than 20%, of wintry conditions
  Thursday night into Friday morning across northeast Arkansas,
  the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee.

- Below normal temperatures will persist through the weekend
  with temperatures returning to the 40s to 50s early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1059 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Another calm overnight period across the Mid-South with a
persistent cloud deck holding on across the area. Latest
nighttime microphysics satellite images show this low stratus
deck plaguing much of the southeast, with little signs of budging
or dissipating. This has aided in keeping our temperatures much
warmer than previously forecast, with some locations running over
5 degrees above guidance currently. Have adjusted temperatures
upwards a bit to account for this and do not think these clouds
will be able to erode overnight given the current set-up. As such,
the concern for freezing fog overnight has diminished greatly,
but will be something to keep a close eye on as the night
progresses. If there were to be any fog development, it would
likely be closer to the TN River where dew point depressions are a
bit lower compared to the rest of the area. Latest guidance has
this persistent cloud deck slowly eroding through the morning,
with sunshine returning by the afternoon across the area. We will
get a subtle shot of some "warmer" temperatures into tomorrow,
with much of the area returning to the 40s to near 50.

By Thursday, a weak upper-level trough will move out of the
desert southwest with an influx of moisture returning to the Mid-
South. The biggest question mark at this time for Thursday into
Friday will be where the surface boundary will be set up, with
ensemble guidance remaining a bit spread. GEFS currently wants to
bring the precipitation further into the Mid-South with much of
the area seeing precipitation by Thursday into Friday, whereas
the ENS keeps a large portion of the precipitation south of the
area. Where this axis sets up will be important, because
locations further north will fall below freezing Thursday night
and thus could introduce the potential for another wintry
solution. Not entirely confident in the PoPs at this time as
there have been large run to run swings especially on the
northward extent for our area. If the forecast ultimately favors
the GEFS solution, this would likely bring some freezing rain
back to the area with a warm nose lingering above the surface.
With this being said, guidance only has around a 20% chance of
trace ice and / or snow amounts across our northern tier of
counties, so this could end up playing out very similar to
earlier this week. Something to continue to keep a close eye on,
but overall confidence is low and think any impacts should remain
limited.

Precipitation will exit the region by Friday afternoon, with
generally dry conditions heading into the weekend. Another weak
upper-level trough will move off of the Rockies on Saturday, with
spread in guidance increasing thereafter. Given the set up, PoPs
will generally remain limited but confidence in the forecast into
the weekend and beyond is low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

With guidance coming in lower and lower with ceilings for this
TAF set, opted to leave the current low stratus deck socked in
through the 30 hour period. It is just not looking like it will
budge any time soon. The biggest question is whether the deck
will drop to IFR overnight tonight or remain steady at 1.5 kft,
which is where it has been for the last 8+ hours. MOS guidance
and the HRRR are really hitting the IFR ceilings hard overnight
tonight so they are included in the TAF, but this will need to be
monitored for trends. Confidence in any patchy freezing fog is
very low due to the thick cloud cover. Winds will remain light
and variable across all terminals through the period.

CAD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1059 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with minRH
values remaining above 40%.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...CAD