Forecast Discussion
634 FXUS64 KMEG 201153 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 553 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 547 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 - Light rain will spread into the Mid-South on Wednesday, ahead of cold frontal passage Wednesday night with a low (less than 20%) chance of wintry precipitation. - Bitterly cold air will arrive by late week and set the stage for a likely winter storm late Friday into this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1140 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 00Z upper air analysis shows an upper-level trough encompassing much of the continental United States. The latest surface analysis centers a 1032 mb surface high over portions of the Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys with a cold front located near the Gulf Coast. A few mid/high clouds still persist over the Mid-South this evening with late evening temperatures in the teens to the north of I-40, and 20s south. A combination of Cold Air Advection and favorable radiational cooling with clearing skies will result in very cold temperatures overnight in the teens to lower 20s across the Mid-South. The aforementioned surface high will move into the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday afternoon allowing for southerly winds to warm temperatures back into the 40s across most areas. Moisture will increase across the Lower Mississippi Valley late Tuesday night into Wednesday, ahead of another cold front that will drop southeast from Canada. Rain showers are expected to develop towards sunrise and spread across the area during the day. Model soundings indicate a very low potential (< 20%) for a brief period of sleet initially mixing with rain until temperatures warm above freezing. No wintry precipitation impacts are expected with this first system. Rainfall amounts into Wednesday night will average between one-tenth to one-quarter inch north of I-40, and one-third to three-quarters of an inch south. Mid to long range models continue to show a strong arctic cold front dropping into the Central United States Friday and into the upcoming weekend. This system is expected to bring significant winter precipitation to the Mid-South this weekend. The main change from the 12Z/18Z model runs is the deterministic 00Z GFS has trended north to be closer in line with the ECMWF and ensemble solutions as the upper-level low is absorbed within a southern stream trough. Earlier GFS runs had indicated a deeper trough as an upper-level low remained off the Baja California Coast. Consequently, snow, sleet, and ice amounts have trended north in the GFS, aligning with current model consensus which favors higher snow amounts between the I-40 corridor and into north Mississippi, with higher amounts of sleet and ice amounts towards central Mississippi. Some uncertainty remains with the onset of precipitation as the ECMWF indicates a dry period before precipitation develops and spreads across the CWA later Friday night. Whereas, the GFS develops precipitation as early as sunrise Friday. Specific timing, precipitation types, and accumulations will be refined in subsequent discussions as this event draws closer. Overall confidence remains medium (50-70%) for winter weather impacts and high confidence (> 80%) of frigid temperatures for this potentially significant winter weather event. A combination of wintry precipitation on the ground, strong arctic high pressure, and excellent radiational cooling will result in frigid temperatures next weekend with highs struggling to reach 30 degrees with lows in the single digits above zero to the teens. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 547 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 VFR conditions are expected today with winds becoming light southerly. Winds will increase to around 10 kts overnight as a low-level jet develops across the area ahead of a cold front. Low- level wind shear will develop at JBR, MKL, and MEM and continue into Wednesday morning. Showers will spread across the Mid-South on Wednesday with lower cigs developing by late morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1140 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Dry, polar air will persist through Tuesday with relative humidity values between 20 and 30 percent with 20 ft winds between 5 to 8 knots. Wetting rain chances return Wednesday and will last through the end of the period, particularly across northern Mississippi with an attendant increase in humidity. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...SJM