Forecast Discussion

184
FXUS64 KMEG 262331 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
531 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 531 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

- Prolonged extreme cold will continue to create dangerous
  conditions through this week, particularly for areas in North
  Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee still impacted by
  power outages.

- Travel conditions will remain hazardous for several days.
  Subfreezing temperatures will continue for many locations
  through next weekend, which will not help melt any
  snow/sleet/ice on the roads.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 101 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Significant reports of ice continue to funnel into our office
today, as several counties in north central and northeast
Mississippi are either completely without power and/or severely
interrupted public communications. Ice accumulations of one inch
have been reported from Oxford, MS northeast through New Albany,
MS and into Savannah, TN. Impacts from this amount of significant
ice will continue this week as temperatures remain near freezing
during the day and well below freezing at night.

Abundant sunshine across the Mid-South has resulted in a clear
visible satellite image of the snow and sleet across the region
(presented in white). Snow/sleet mainly is analyzed from the
Mississippi Delta all the way up into northwest Tennessee and the
Missouri Bootheel.

The latest surface analysis places a strong and expansive 1041mb
high over north central Texas. Temperatures range from the middle
teens to around 20 degrees under abundant sunshine. North winds
remain moderate between 10 and 12 mph, with wind chill
temperatures ranging from 0 to 10 F at this hour. The primary
forecast focus tonight through this weekend will be on low and
high temperatures each day.

The aforementioned surface high will slide to the south and east
of the Mid-South on through Tuesday afternoon. This will result
in winds shifting around to the southwest late tonight and will
keep temperatures from dropping too much. Nonetheless, minimum
temperatures will fall into the single digits for most, with
negative readings mainly across northwest Tennessee. Apparent
temperatures will dip down to as low as -15F north of I-40 with
single digits readings to the south of I-40. The Extreme Cold
Warning is in reasonably good shape with an end time of noon on
Tuesday.

With abundant sunshine again on Tuesday, this will help to melt
some of the residual ice and sleet across the region. However,
the degree of melting still remains uncertain. NBM temperatures
vary widely on Tuesday, with as much as a 10F spread. This is the
difference between locations along and north of I-40 climbing
above freezing or remaining below freezing. After close
collaboration with surrounding offices and the amount of sleet,
snow, and ice on the ground, we decided to go with
NBM50 guidance. This results in all locations along and north of
I-40 staying at or below freezing, with mid to upper 30s to the
south. Hi-res models are picking up on the potential for some
freezing fog Wednesday morning as higher dewpoints advecting into
the region during the day on Wednesday.  Currently, there is a
low to medium chance (20-40%) of dense freezing fog Wednesday
morning.

A persistence forecast for high temperatures is in place for
Wednesday, with the freezing line holding close along the I-
40 corridor. Morning fog and additional cloud cover will likely
reduce some of the melting. Thursday appears to be the warmest
day of the week, as weak warm air advection occurs ahead of an
organizing surface low near the ArkLaTex.

The surface low will take a southeast track towards the Gulf
Coast Thursday and help push another Arctic cold front through
the region early in the morning on Friday. There is medium
confidence that cold weather products will be needed for at least
portions of the Mid-South on both Friday and Saturday mornings.
This reinforcing cold shot will keep any residual ice and snow
impacts ongoing through at least this weekend. LREF guidance
suggests that we will stay in broad troughing and below normal
temperatures through at least early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Cloud streets over TUP should slowly diminish this evening,
leaving clear skies. A passing surface pressure ridge axis will
result in a transition to southwesterly winds at JBR, MEM and MKL
this evening. The southwest winds will increase at all TAF sites
by midmorning Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 101 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Very cold air is expected to persist through the week, especially
Tuesday morning. There is a low to medium chance of freezing fog
Wednesday morning. Fire weather concerns are minimal through the
period.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...PWB