SPC Mesoscale Discussion

SPC MD 765

MD 0765 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 223... FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
MD 0765 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0765
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Areas affected...Parts of north central and  northeastern Kansas
into southeast Nebraska

Concerning...Tornado Watch 223...

Valid 240433Z - 240600Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 223 continues.

SUMMARY...The evolution of an organizing convective system with
potential to produce strong surface gusts appears possible through
1-3 AM CDT.
Tornado watch 223 and severe thunderstorm watch 224 may be replaced
with a new severe thunderstorm watch prior to Midnight.

DISCUSSION...As a significant short wave trough continues to pivot
north-northeast of the central High Plains, thunderstorm activity
continues to develop across the central Plains into the middle
Missouri Valley.  Strong low-level warm advection along a stalled
surface frontal zone, roughly near and north of the Interstate 70
corridor of north central and northeastern Kansas may provide the
focus for further increasing and consolidating convective
development through 06-09Z.  This will be aided by a 30-50 kt
southerly low-level jet across the southern through central Plains,
which will gradually veer toward the middle Missouri Valley through
the next few hours.  

In the presence of moderately large CAPE, for moist parcels above/to
the cool side of the frontal zone, and strong shear in the
convectively layer, there appears potential for the evolution of an
organizing convective system which could be accompanied by
increasing potential for strong surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 05/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   39629937 40739691 40639572 39199517 38699691 38149878
            39629937 

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SPC MD 764

MD 0764 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 226... FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
MD 0764 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0764
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plains/southern and
eastern Panhandle into western Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 226...

Valid 240408Z - 240545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 226
continues.

SUMMARY...The evolution of an increasingly organized convective
system accompanied by at least some risk for strong, potentially
damaging wind gusts appears possible through 1-3 AM.  While it is
not yet certain that a new severe weather watch will be needed
across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas, trends will
continue to be monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection above a conglomerate
convectively generated surface cold pool is likely contributing to
the maintenance of vigorous ongoing convection west through north
and  northeast of Lubbock.  In the presence of moderately large CAPE
on the order of 2000 J/kg, this appears likely to persist into the
overnight hours with further upscale growth possible.  As it does,
strong deep layer shear will provide potential for the evolution of
an increasingly organized convective system.  If this occurs, there
probably will be a tendency to propagate northeastward across areas
near/northeast of Childress, into western Oklahoma, as 30-50 kt
south-southeasterly 850 mb flow across the southern Plains gradually
veers to a south-southwesterly component through 06-09Z.  And
potential for strong surface gusts may increase along the leading
edge of the strengthening forward propagating cold pool.

..Kerr.. 05/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34150266 34530134 36030007 36029862 33640063 33360242
            34150266 

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