SPC Mesoscale Discussion

SPC MD 234

MD 0234 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 32... FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
MD 0234 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0234
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Areas affected...Central/southern Missouri and southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 32...

Valid 242211Z - 250015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 32
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues in WW32 with large hail as the
primary threat. Storms should continue moving east over the next 3-4
hours.

DISCUSSION...Multiple severe warned storms have developed within
WW32 along/ahead of a cold front in central/southern Missouri. Large
hail continues to be the primary severe threat with cold air aloft
and mostly unidirectional shear through the vertical profile
yielding around 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear. Damaging wind
gusts remain possible, but as daytime heating begins to wane,
low-level lapse rates will diminish limiting this threat.
Additionally, a brief, weak tornado is possible, but low-level flow
is relatively weak and surface winds are mostly south-southwest
limiting SRH. Storms should continue moving east across
central/southern Missouri into southern Illinois through 03z. As the
cold front slides southeast, the severe threat will diminish across
WW32 from west to east through the evening.

..Nauslar/Thompson.. 03/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36489349 36579358 36849347 37279312 37949256 38659197
            38789150 38859067 38918954 38838880 38688858 38368852
            37968865 37388892 36958934 36648968 36509013 36499186
            36489349 

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